Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014

63
Tomek Kreczmar nerdica.pl

Transcript of Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014

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Tomek Kreczmarnerdica.pl

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1994-2002 Wydawnictwo MAG:„Magia i Miecz”WFRP, KC, ED, DT, W:GW, DL, ZC itd.

2002-2004 Wydawnictwo ISAD&D 3 i D&D 3.5

2003-2013 HyperRT, TH, FA, HN, Hexp…

2013-… Game Industry TrendsGry biznesowe i grywalizacje

A także: The Witcher, Thorgal CCG, Wewnętrzne Zło

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http://filozofy.blox.pl/2009/07/Wiem-ze-nic-nie-wiem.html

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Video Games: The Movie

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Wartość rynku gier PC nie przekracza 25 mld dolarów

DFC Intelligence zwraca uwagę także, że siłą rynku gier PC są obecnie gry MOBA i tytuły F2P.

http://pclab.pl/news57500.html

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2009

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2014: Destiny (Bungie i Activision Blizzard)

Destiny costs Activision $500 million to develop and promote*

It's predicted to be the biggest title of 2014 and cost $75 million more than Avatar - Hollywood's most expensive blockbuster film to date**

Activision sold in more than $500m of Destiny worldwide as of day one - Biggest New Video Game Launch Ever!***

* http://www.polygon.com/2014/5/6/5686268/Destiny-costs-activision-500-million-to-develop-promote

** http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2749053/Worlds-expensive-video-game-goes-sale-Destiny-cost-310-MILLION-develop.html

*** http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2014/09/10/destiny-crosses-500-million-on-day-one-biggest-new-video-game-launch-ever/

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1997: Grand Theft Auto I – 0,1 mln. do 2003

1999: Grand Theft Auto II – 0,2 mln. do 2003

2001: Grand Theft Auto III – 14,5 mln. do 2008 (11 mln. w 7 miesięcy!)

2002: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 17,5 mln. do 2008

2004: Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 21,5 mln. do 2008 (4,5 mln. w 1. tydz.)

2008: Grand Theft Auto IV – 25 mln. (3,6 mln. w 24h, w 1 tydz. 6 mln.)

2013: Grand Theft Auto V – ponad 30 mln. ($800 mln. w 24h, $1 miliard w 3 dni)

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1970: Bushnell i Daubney, Computer Space; Nutting Associates - zarobili $5001

1972: Pong od Atari – zysk $3,2 mln., 8000-10 000 sprzedanych urządzeń2

1980: Pac-Man od Midway – w rok 100 tys. urządzeń, w 7 lat: 293 822; zysk >$200 mln.3

1985: Super Mario Bros. od Nintendo – 40,24 mln.; rekord do 2004 roku!4

1990: Super Mario Bros. 3 od Nintendo – 17,28 mln. kartridży; zysk: >$500 mln.5

1994: Donkey Kong Country od Nintendo – 8,5 mln. w sumie; w tydzień $35 mln.6

1997: GoldenEye 007 od Nintendo – 8 mln. w sumie7

1998: Pokémon Red /Blue od Nintendo – 23 mln. w sumie8

1999: Final Fantasy VIII od Square – 2,21 mln. w 1. dzień w Japonii; w sumie 7,4 mln.9

2001: Gran Turismo do Sony – 1 mln. w 2. dni; w sumie 15 mln.10

2006: Wii Sports od Nintendo – 81,97 mln. w sumie11

2007: Halo 3 od Microsoft – 1. tydzień 5 mln. za $300 mln.12

1Video Invaders, by Steve Bloom, 1982 2BYTE, September 1985, Volume 10, Number 9. 3Video Invaders, by Steve Bloom, 1982. 4Nintendo Power, October 1995, Volume 77. 5Nintendo Power, May 2002, Volume 156. 6Newsweek, December 12, 1994, Volume 124, Number 24. 7Electronic Gaming Monthly, December 2001, Volume 14, Number 12, Issue 149. 8Electronic Gaming Monthly, August 1998, Volume 11, Number 8, Issue 109. 9Official U.S. PlayStation Magazine, August 2001, Issue 47. 10 Electronic Gaming Monthly, July 2001, Volume 14, Number 7, Issue 144. 10http://www.vgchartz.com/game/2667/wii-sports/ 12Reuters http://www.reuters.com

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1982:Atari releases E.T. the Extraterrestrial video game cartridge for theAtari 2600 game system. (4 million cartridges are produced, 2 millionare sold, 1 million are returned. Millions of cartridges are later buried.)

Newsweek, October 25, 1982, Volume 100, Number 17.

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2011: Duke Nukem Forever, sequel słynnego Duke Nukem 3D z 1996

Metacritic 49-54/100; Sprzedaż 0,38 mln.

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1998: Grim Fandango – 100-500 tys.*; Metacritic – 94/100

1999: Shenmue – 1,18 mln.**; Metacritic – 88/100

2003: Beyond Good & Evil – 0,51 mln.**; Metacritic – 83-87/100

2005: Psychonauts – 0,21 mln.**; Metacritic – 86-88/100

2006: Okami – 1,33 mln.**; Metacritic – 90-93/100

2009: Brütal Legend – 1,82 mln.**; Metacritic – 80-83/100* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grim_Fandango ** http://www.vgchartz.com/

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2011: People Can Fly, Epic Games i Electronic Arts

1,59 mln.*; Metacritic – 82/100* http://www.vgchartz.com/

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http://glosg2rzeszow.blox.pl/2013/11/8222Wiem-ze-nic-nie-wiem8221-czyli-uczen-tez.html

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Computer & video games sales in the USA 2000-2013 in billion U$

http://www.statista.com/statistics/273258/us-computer-and-video-game-sales/

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Digi-Capital

http://www.newzoo.com/infographics/newzoos-360-view-gaming/

Global Video GamesSector Revenues

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The Witcher Battle Arena

Earthcore: Shattered Elements

Godfire: Rise of Prometheus

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Out of the top 10 grossing apps Minecraft – Pocket Edition is the only paid app.http://www.distimo.com/blog/2013_12_publication-2013-year-in-review/

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• During 2013, Google Play’s revenue share has been growing at Apple’s expense. In November 2013, the Apple App Store was still leading though with 63 percent relative to 37 percent for Google Play.

• 2013 showed an increasing trend towards the freemium business model, while paid apps made up a smaller portion of mobile app revenue.

• Apps were explored more quickly than ever before in 2013. We identified apps that reached over one million downloads in only a couple days after release, e.g. Despicable Me: Minion Rush and Temple Run 2.

• None of newly released apps of 2013 reached a top 10 position in the yearly grossing charts in the Apple App Store. In contrast, four out of the top 10 grossing apps on Google Play were released in 2013.

• The most revenue generating app of 2013 was Supercell’s Clash of Clans, making Supercell the top grossing publisher of 2013 in the Apple App Store.

Distimo 2013 Year in Review

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Distimo Games: King of the mobile eco-system

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In the past two years, the cost per install on mobile increased from $1.30 in January, 2012, to $4.36 in December, an increase of 288%! That’s crazy. More importantly, the average revenue per mobile gamer has failed to keep pace: in that same period monthly spending grew 38%. As the gap between the cost and spending of a user widens, having a well-thought out marketing strategy is key.

http://www.superdataresearch.com/market-data/digital-game-user-acquisition-cost/

Rovio Entertainment, the Finland-based maker of Angry Birds, among other games, is laying off 130 people, or 16% of its current workforce.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/02/how-the-mighty-eagle-is-fallen-rovio-announces-layoffs/

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Most of us won't pay $1 for a great game, but will pay $99 in IAPs to have a better looking hut or farm or business or than our friends and fellow gamers.

Most of us won't pay $1 for a great game, but will pay $99 in IAPs to get back to racing or fighting or crushing candy as quickly as possible.

And because free-to-play, or freemium, is proving so much more lucrative than the simple, one-time, up-front payment system of the early days of the App Store, even established gaming franchises and studios, unable to make money any other way, are switching to it, and sometimes to the less savory versions of it.

Most of all, we need to stop feeding the IAP machine, and stop rewarding that business model with our money. We need to pay a fair price for good games, for premium games, and reward those and that model instead. We need to stop pretending that a game that provides hours of enjoyment is worth less than a movie ticket or a fancy cup of coffee.

Rene Ritchie Editor-in-Chief of iMore

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Dungeon Hunter 4 is a freemium title, and I’d go so far as to say it’s viciously freemium. It’s up to you what the most annoying of its many in-app purchase tricks are, but they include putting a timer on potions so that you have to wait or pay to use them frequently, teasing the player with better items for sale right there in your own personal inventory, or making you wait in real time (or pay, again) for item upgrades and crafting.

MAC Daily Matthew Snider

Going into 2014, developers must keep in mind that their audience is now educated in the subtleties of freemium. Users won’t be as easily duped or soothed into parting with their money, so models that utilize freemium will need to pass a more rigorous test than Candy Crush if success is expected. Unfortunately, this might also disappoint developers looking at the bottom line: because freemium will slowly lose its effectiveness, its profits will drop, too.

Gigaom Lauren Hockenson

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http://filozofy.blox.pl/2013/10/Wiem-ze-nic-nie-wiem-bis.html

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• Q3 2013 revenue of $203 million, down 36% year-over-year, and bookings of $152 million, down 40% year-over-year

• Q3 2013 net loss of $68 thousand and Adjusted EBITDA of $7 million

• Q3 2013 GAAP EPS of $0.00 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.02

http://investor.zynga.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=800274

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Transparency Market Research "Social Gaming Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2013 - 2019," the global Social Gaming market is expected to reach a value of USD 17.40 billion by 2019, growing at a CAGR of 16.1% from 2013 to 2019. Growth in the usage of internet and social networking sites has spurred the growth of the games over the internet.

By 2016, social games will account for nearly as 50% of the video game market. This video game market segment is entering the maturity phase. Its estimated revenues in 2012 were EUR 5.4 billion, which is expected to reach EUR 10.7 billion in 2016.

Electronic Arts reported in 2011 that ARPU from EA Sports apps on Facebook was USD 56, exceeding net income per user from its console games.

http://gamesummit.pro/social-gaming-trends-markets/

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While the number of monthly uniques who play social games further declined in June, dipping to 89 million users, the underlying metrics have started to improve. http://www.alistdaily.com/news/digital-game-sales-for-june-2013

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Facebook isn’t cool anymore

Facebook’s penetration among U.S. college-aged adults (age 18 to 24) decreased by three percentage points to 88.6% in Nov. 2013 from Feb. 2013.

http://digiday.com/platforms/social-platforms-college-kids-now-prefer/

According to a study reported by Forbes, use of Facebook decreased by 16% among teenage Americans in Q3 2013, and the numbers are even more drastic in other parts of the world.

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http://filozofy.blox.pl/resource/57_I_urodziny_blog.jpg

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Cost to develop: 150-200 mln. $http://www.gamespot.com/articles/star-wars-the-old-republic-cost-200-million-to-develop/1100-6348959/

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Revenue: $927 million (April 2013 - March 2014)*

January 2014, over 67 million people play League of Legends per month, 27 million per day, and over 7.5 million concurrently during peak hours**

Riot’s conversion rate is less than 5 percent**** http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/mmo-arpu

** http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/27/player-tally-for-league-of-legends-surges/

*** http://gamesauce.org/news/2014/08/14/teut-weidemann-i-teut-you-so-casual-connect-video/

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78 mln. kont na koniec 2013 roku*; 100 mln. VI 2014**

Łącznie fani grali ok. 380 tys. lat*

Xbox 360 – 3,8mln. użytkowników z 86 krajów**

Mobile ponad 5 mln.**

1500 Polaków gra codziennie

Zysk w 2013 ok. 347 mln. EUR, a 2014 szacowany na 372 mln.***

Net income 2012 6,1 mln. EUR***** http://www.gry-online.pl/S013.asp?ID=82611

** http://www.chip.pl/news/rozrywka/gry-rpg-i-mmorpg/2014/08/w-world-of-tanks-gra-juz-100-milionow-graczy

*** http://themittani.com/news/cyprus-freezes-wargamingnet-securities

**** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wargaming_(company

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Titan - Gra Blizzard tworzona przez 7 lat

CEO Mike Morhaime:

„We set out to make the most ambitious thing that youcould possibly imagine. And it didn't come together. We didn't find the fun. We didn't find the passion”

A może:

„We didn't find the money

in MMORPG market”

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http://filozofy.blox.pl/resource/116_II_urodziny_blog.jpg

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http://pl.memgenerator.pl/user/Kebab111/ludzie/10/1

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Microsoft kupuje firmę Mojang i grę Minecraft za 2,5 miliarda USD*

Amazon kupił Twitch.TV za miliard USD**

e-Sports Broadcast Rights: The value of rights fees may not rise to National Football League levels, but they should steadily increase as audiences grow.***

Gadżety Minecraft* http://www.gram.pl/news/2014/09/15/microsoft-kupuje-mojang-notch-odchodzi-minecraft-bez-zmian.shtml

** http://natemat.pl/114665,miliard-dolarow-za-ogladanie-jak-graja-inni-czyli-jak-amazon-kupil-twitch-tv

*** http://www.nasdaq.com/article/will-e-sports-broadcast-rights-be-valuable-cm378829#.U-nzLdHStMQ.twitter

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Finały WoT w Warszawie:Transmisje Twitch.tv - 1 737 940 UU; 201 dziennikarzy ze 150 redakcji, reprezentujących 28 krajów... *

Katowicki Intel Extreme Masters 2014 - nagrody osiągnęły wartość 508 tys. USD; 73 tys. osób na żywo**

The team that won The International 4 took home more than $5 million in prize money, four times the $1.6 million Rory McIlroy earned by winning the British Open***

* http://www.gram.pl/artykul/2014/08/06/gra-w-biznes-jak-zarobic-na-f2p-casus-world-of-tanks.shtml

** http://jacekjankowski.pl/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Katowice2014_Infographic.jpg

*** http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/11/will-e-sports-broadcast-rights-be-valuable.aspx

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PewDiePie’s estimated monthly revenue from YouTube ads fluctuates between $140,000 and $1.4 million depending on viewership, according to Social Blade, a company that monitors YouTube channels.*

Rojov13 i RockAlone2k – miesięcznie od 1,5 tys. do 12.3 tys. USD**

Nagrody w turniejach cały czas rosną: LoL 5,4 mln. USD w 104 turniejach, Dota 2 4,4 mln. USD w 80 turniejach***

Sponsoring zespołów e-sportowych

Handel obiektami w grach: w MMO Entropia w 2010 roku nieruchomość sprzedano za 428 mln. USD****

* http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/03/this-guy-makes-millions-playing-video-games-on-youtube/284402/

** http://socialblade.com/

*** http://m.polygamia.pl/Polygamia/1,109144,15785695,Jak_to_jest_z_tym_zarabianiem_na_graniu_.html

**** http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/123151/SEE_Virtual_Worlds_Buys_Planet_Calypso_For_6M.php

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