ESKOM

Phezu Komkhono, AMEU 60th Convention, October 2007

ESKOMModern Network Master Planning

Methodology, an approach to address network expansion & renewal needs due to higher

economic growth and socio economic needsPrepared by Marius du Preez, NETGroup

In conjunction with Eskom Master Planning Methodology Work Group

Presented by Ed Bunge, Eskom

AMEU Convention October 2007


“The objective of distribution planning is to provide an orderly and economic expansion of equipment and facilities to meet the utility’s future electricity demand with an acceptable level of reliability.” - H. Lee Willis


Presentation Overview• Introduction• Power System Planning Horizons / Lead Times• Network Master Plan vs. Network Development Plan• Global Planning Methodologies• Generic steps to all Planning Methodologies• Planning Process Overview

– Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area– Gather Data / Information– Strategic Study– Electrification Planning– Load Forecast– Power Plant Refurbishment– Network Capability and Problem Statement– Identify and Evaluate Alternatives– Capital Plan– Economic / Financial Evaluation– Environmental Assessments

• Eskom Guide


IntroductionUniversal Access Plan (UAP)

– 100% access to electricity by 2012 – need to accelerate pace of electrification to achieve target

Other Drivers:– Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for SA (ASGISA)– additional capacity requirement– extensive refurbishment– increasing lead times

• environmental assessments• servitude acquisition• procurement of equipment

– CTAD audit findings

Planning Methodology Document – a guideline for the compilation of NMP’s and NDP’s


Power System Planning Horizons / Lead Times

2 5 15 20

Project Lead Time [years]

Reticulation

Sub- transmission

Transmission

Generation

S

e

r

v

i

c

e

A

r

e

a

S

i

z

e


Network Master Plan vs. Network Development Plan

years

uncertainty

0 1510 205

NDP

NMP

conceptualdetail


Global Planning MethodologiesTraditional Planning Methodology• Regulated Stable environment• Responsibilities and Mandate of Utility clear and controlled by government.• Demand predictable. • Assumptions easier and accurate.• More certainty

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)• Regulated Unstable environment• Cost to the customer never really featured in the final decision process

Least Cost Planning (LCP)• Latter stages of Regulated Unstable environment• Includes value base techniques (cost to the customer)

Value Based Planning • Liberalised wholesale markets• Minimises total cost – (utility & customer) • Indices: Unserved Energy (EUE) & Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)


Generic steps to all Planning Methodologies

Select the alternative that best satisfies the goals with respect to the problem

Select the best alternatives5

Evaluate all the alternatives on a sound basis.Evaluate the alternatives4

What alternative solutions are available? This is a critical step & should be a group session.

Identify the alternatives3

This tells you where you are aiming to go. What goals are to be achieved? What is to be minimised?

Determine the goals2

Explicitly identify the range of application and its limits. Try to see the problem in terms of the goals and write it down.

Identify the problem (includes gathering & analysing data)

1

DescriptionActivityStep


Planning Process Overview


Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area

• Clear definition of study objectives

• Trigger for planning review will determine the appropriate approach required

• Requirements of study will dictate data needed

• A NMP may span an entire FSA/CSA, – typically, a no. of interconnected Tx S/S

supply areas


Gather Data / Information

• Obtain as much existing data and information as possible to support the study

• Field visits may be required to verify network layout & equipment data

• Typical data requirements include:– geographical background mapping data

– network configuration, equipment & loading data

– Metro / municipality / large customer data

– other plans (electrification, refurbishment,

environmental, etc)

– operational / performance reports

– existing standards and reports


Strategic Study

• Sub-component of GLF• Purpose - model population and

economic growth geographical for 20yrs• Development & growth projections based on:

– historic trends / local knowledge – potential/planned developments– existing planning documents (IDP’s, SDF’s)

• Development Economists – develop economic model – sensitivity analysis


Electrification Planning

S-Curves Utilised in the GLF

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Y0

Y1

Y2

Y3

Y4

Y5

Y6

Y7

Y8

Y9

Y10

Y11

Y12

Y13

Y14

Y15

Y16

Y17

Y18

Y19

Y20

Y21

Y22

Y23

Y24

Y25

p.u

.

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S1s S2s

• National Government (DME) – targets and funding• Eskom - implementing agent• Electrification planning process:

– Review electrification status quo– Determine of grid / off-grid supply areas– Prioritisation and phasing of electrification projects– Budgeting and allocation of funds– Stakeholders liaison

• Rolling Electrification Plan


Load Forecast

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

MV

A

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Main Substation

Optimistic

Realistic

Pessimistic

• Determine electricity requirements of end-users

• Crucial input to NMP & NDP studies

• Input to Transmission Planning• For NMP

– long-term strategic view on development

– preferably use geo-spatial techniques

• link to physical network load points


Power Plant Refurbishment

• Plant Section - Refurbishment Plan containing: – status of primary equipment– project recommendations

– budget cost estimates

• For NMP:– plant age, high-level condition assessment

– estimate of remaining life

• Estimate capital requirements


Network Capability and Problem Statement

• Assess quality of available data– highlight deficiencies for future

correction

• Develop adequate network models

• Detailed network analysis– identify existing shortcomings

• Clearly define nature of problems– coordinated, holistic approach


Identify and Evaluate Alternatives

• Identify all possible network solutions• Conduct technical & economic

evaluations– Steady-State System Analysis– Contingency & Reliability Analysis – Network Alternatives and Scenarios– Technical Analysis & Technology Selection– Cost Alternatives– Economic Evaluation

• Output - annually phased strengthening

& network improvement proposals


Capital Plan

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Millions

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2018 2020 2024Year

Minimum Capital Investment Scenario

Total Investment by 2010= R 30,643,000

• Compile Capital Requirements Plan – NMP - 20 years

• Refine cost estimates in more detail – preferred alternatives – phase over planning period

• Eskom business categories: – Direct Customers– Strengthening– Reliability– Electrification– Refurbishment


Economic / Financial Evaluation

• Perform economic / financial analysis on recommended NMP or NDP

• Assess economic / financial viability of overall plan • Outputs

– 5yr / 20yr cash flow– Economic life cycle costs– Reliability / Customer Interuption

Costs– financial indicators (MIRR & NPV)

– financial impact on Eskom• tariff requirements• possible penalties


Environmental Assessments

• Promote sustainable development & protect environment– National Environmental Management Act (1998)

– Environment Conservation Act (1989)

• Objective = integrate environmental requirements into plans • SEA - environmental framework for strategic development • Assessments - conducted timeously

– SEA’s• triggered by NMP

– EIA’s• triggered by NDP


PHEZU KOMKONO

!!!

ESKOM

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Transcript of ESKOM