economics.yale.edueconomics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Workshops... · 2019-06-21 ·...

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3 �

Figure 1 The Change in Firing Costs in Chile

Expected discounted cost of dismissing a worker, in multiples of monthly wages

Source: Edwards and Edwards (2000).

Job Security Index

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

37

Table 1 Absolute Value of Plant-level Gap, OLS

Gap = Marginal Revenue Product - Marginal Cost

Dependent Variable Blue Gap White Gap Materials Gap

(1) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2)

Constant 111.467 111.678 162.815 163.149 0.283 0.283

[9.551]** [9.551]** [3.637]** [3.617]** [0.010]** [0.010]**

Period Dummy (1985-1990) 24.302 23.861 -0.164 -0.827 -0.044 -0.043

[9.815]* [9.811]* [7.049] [7.092] [0.014]** [0.014]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996) 41.459 41.005 16.857 16.203 -0.035 -0.034

[16.615]* [16.633]* [6.581]* [6.515]* [0.012]** [0.012]**

Industry Output Growth Rate 3.415 4.803 -0.01

[2.507] [3.070] [0.008]

Firm Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Observations 28,641 28,634 28,643 28,636 29,485 29,478

R-squared 0.79 0.79 0.64 0.64 0.54 0.54

Number of clusters 66 66 66 66 67 67

All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. Blue Gap is defined as the absolute value of the gap between the marginal product of blue collar labor and the blue collar wage rate, normalized by the 3-digit industry output price deflator. The marginal product of blue collar labor is estimated based on a gross output Cobb-Douglas production function, which is estimated using OLS with firm fixed effects. The blue collar wage rate is obtained by dividing the total blue collar wage bill by the number of blue collar employees. White Gap is defined similarly. Materials Gap is defined as the absolute value of the gap between the marginal product of materials and the normalized materials price index (also defined at the three digit industry level). The underlying production functions used for calculating the gaps are estimated separately for each 3 digit industry. Standard errors are clustered at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

3�>

Figure 2 Differences Across Years in the Absolute Gap

Blue and White Collar Labor and Materials, OLS estimates

The graph plots the coefficient on year dummies in regression of absolute gap between marginal product of an input and its normalized price, including firm fixed effects and industry output growth rate. Year 1980 is normalized to 100.

Absolute gap between marginal product and wage/price

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

BLUE WHITE MATERIALS

3 $

Table 2 Labor Demand Regression

Blue Collar Employment, Instrumental Variables

Blue Collar Labor

Period 1 (1979-84)

Period 2 (1985-90)

Period 3 (1991-96)

All Periods

Constant -0.015 0.016 -0.044 -0.024

[0.010] [0.006]* [0.006]** [0.006]**

Blue wage -0.123 -0.235 -0.104 -0.191

[0.037]** [0.025]** [0.043]* [0.017]**

Blue wage_t-1 -0.047 0.082 0.238 0.066

[0.016]** [0.019]** [0.023]** [0.011]**

White wage 0.117 0.023 0.029 0.054

[0.023]** [0.019] [0.019] [0.010]**

White wage_t-1 -0.026 -0.034 -0.023 -0.048

[0.012]* [0.008]** [0.010]* [0.005]**

Value added 0.104 -0.002 0.075 0.081

[0.010]** [0.024] [0.017]** [0.009]**

Value added_t-1 0.04 -0.006 -0.015 0.012

[0.006]** [0.006] [0.008]+ [0.004]**

Blue Employment_t-1 0.12 0.435 0.664 0.457

[0.055]* [0.093]** [0.071]** [0.056]**

Period Dummy (1985-1990) 0.015

[0.010]

Period Dummy (1991-1996) 0.005

[0.009]

Period Dummy (1985-1990)*Blue Employment_t-1 0.35

[0.106]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996)*Blue Employment_t-1 -0.283

[0.092]**

Observations 8129 15272 18499 41900

Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. The regressions are estimated in first differences. The endogenous variables are Blue Wage, White Wage, Value Added and Blue Employment_t-1. Instruments are lagged industry output, lagged industry average Blue Wage, Lagged industry average White Wage, two-period lagged industry output, double lagged industry average blue wage, double lagged industry average white wage, two-period lagged Blue Wage, two-period lagged White Wage, two-period lagged Materials, two-period lagged Capital, two-period lagged Value Added and three-period lagged Blue Collar employment. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

3 �

Table 3 Labor Demand Regression

Blue Collar Employment, OLS

OLS

Period 1 (1979-84)

Period 2 (1985-90)

Period 3 (1991-96)

All Periods

Constant 0.174 0.082 0.095 0.141

[0.038]** [0.026]** [0.030]** [0.015]**

Blue wage -0.194 -0.274 -0.296 -0.25

[0.016]** [0.018]** [0.022]** [0.007]**

Blue wage_t-1 0.095 0.177 0.202 0.154

[0.017]** [0.018]** [0.017]** [0.007]**

White wage 0.084 0.057 0.042 0.064

[0.009]** [0.011]** [0.014]** [0.004]**

White wage_t-1 -0.08 -0.048 -0.034 -0.057

[0.008]** [0.010]** [0.012]** [0.004]**

Value added 0.108 0.101 0.124 0.111

[0.006]** [0.007]** [0.008]** [0.003]**

Value added_t-1 -0.031 -0.02 -0.049 -0.033

[0.004]** [0.007]** [0.007]** [0.003]**


[0.007]** [0.010]** [0.008]** [0.004]**

Period Dummy (1985-1990) -0.047

[0.011]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996) -0.056

[0.012]**


[0.003]**


[0.004]**

Observations 17650 20416 23155 61221

R-squared 0.91 0.92 0.9 0.91

Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

3 !

Table 4 Probability of Not Adjusting Labor

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Constant 0.179 0.179 0.146 0.146 0.172 0.17

[0.013]** [0.013]** [0.006]** [0.007]** [0.023]** [0.032]**

Period dummy (1985-1990) -0.044 -0.044 -0.003 -0.003 0.001 0.012

[0.008]** [0.008]** [0.009] [0.009] [0.011] [0.011]

Period dummy (1991-1996) -0.044 -0.044 0.009 0.008 0.017 0.036

[0.006]** [0.006]** [0.010] [0.010] [0.015] [0.018]*

Industry output growth rate -0.002 0.001

[0.003] [0.003]

Lagged labor 0 0

[0.000]** [0.000]**

Firm wage rate 0 0

[0.000] [0.000]+

Observed productivity (LP estimate) -0.003

[0.005]

Observed productivity (OLS estimate) -0.008

[0.013]

Fixed effects None None Firm Firm Firm Firm

Observations 73,705 73,689 73,705 73,689 55,204 31,891

R-squared 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25


Dependent variable is one if the firm does not adjust its employment level (compared to previous year). All other variables are in logs. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

�A

Table 5 Firing Rates Conditional on Firing

Percentage change (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Constant 0.172 0.17 0.174 0.169 0.232 0.208

[0.005]** [0.005]** [0.004]** [0.003]** [0.026]** [0.022]**

Period dummy (1985-1990) -0.019 -0.016 -0.025 -0.019 -0.034 -0.03

[0.005]** [0.005]** [0.008]** [0.007]** [0.010]** [0.013]*

Period dummy (1991-1996) -0.026 -0.023 -0.026 -0.02 -0.057 -0.06

[0.004]** [0.004]** [0.005]** [0.004]** [0.010]** [0.014]**

Industry output growth rate -0.011 -0.025

[0.005]* [0.006]**

Lagged labor 0.00 0.00

[0.000]** [0.000]**

Firm wage rate 0.00 0.00

[0.000]** [0.000]**

Observed productivity (LP estimate) -0.02

[0.006]**

Observed productivity (OLS estimate) -0.028

[0.007]**

Fixed effects None None Firm Firm Firm Firm

Observations 28,908 28,898 28,908 28,898 21,216 12,557

R-squared 0.01 0.01 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.410


Firing rate is the absolute percentage decrease in employment, defined for firms that decrease employment. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

�ú

Table 6 Hiring Rates Conditional on Hiring

Percentage Changes (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Constant 0.244 0.244 0.258 0.258 0.297 0.269 [0.011]** [0.011]** [0.007]** [0.007]** [0.024]** [0.033]** Period dummy (1985-1990) -0.012 -0.013 -0.023 -0.023 0.014 0.023 [0.006]+ [0.006]* [0.007]** [0.007]** [0.006]* [0.007]** Period dummy (1991-1996) -0.045 -0.046 -0.074 -0.074 0.004 0.026 [0.010]** [0.010]** [0.013]** [0.013]** [0.013] [0.009]** Industry output growth rate 0.01 0.004 [0.007] [0.005] Lagged labor 0.00 0.00 [0.000]** [0.000]** Firm wage rate 0.00 0.00 [0.000]** [0.000]** Observed productivity (LP estimate) 0.007 [0.005] Observed productivity (OLS estimate) 0.02 [0.014] Fixed effects None None Firm Firm Firm Firm Observations 33,903 33,899 33,903 33,899 25,706 14,585 R-squared 0.01 0.01 0.34 0.34 0.39 0.410 Number of clusters 88 88 88 88 59 82

Hiring rate is the percentage change in total employment, defined for firms that increase employmen. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

�R

Table 7 Explaining Movements in Real Wages

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Period Dummy (1985-1990) -0.375 -0.378 -0.405 -0.363 -0.533

[0.026]** [0.024]** [0.022]** [0.027]** [0.020]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996) 0.081 0.072 -0.007 0.092 -0.112

[0.023]** [0.022]** [0.025] [0.023]** [0.028]**

Firm Output Growth Rate 0.008

[0.002]**

Log(Industry Output) 0.127

[0.021]**

Industry Output Growth Rate 0.001

[0.006]

Unemployment Rate -2.131

[0.193]**

Constant 4.494 4.52 2.52 4.486 4.814

[0.014]** [0.014]** [0.319]** [0.016]** [0.026]**

Observations 86176 73701 86160 80346 86176

R-squared 0.8 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81

Number of clusters 89 89 89 89 89

Dependent variable is Log (real wage rate). Real wage rate is the nominal wage rate deflated by the producer price index. Nominal wage rate is defined as the total wage bill/ number of employees. For each independent variable the first row gives the coefficient values and the second row gives the related t-values. All regressions include firm fixed effects. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

� 3

Table A1 Absolute Value of Gap Using Levinsohn-Petrin Value-Added Production Function Estimator

Dependent Variable Blue Gap White Gap

(1) (2) (1) (2)

Constant 55.63 57.258 172.187 174.762

[6.079]** [6.274]** [6.386]** [6.604]**

Period Dummy (1985-1990) 17.766 15.959 40.423 37.414

[8.786]* [8.548]+ [7.600]** [7.215]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996) 28.576 26.866 63.74 61.125

[9.549]** [9.313]** [12.130]** [11.929]**

Industry Output Growth Rate 1.685 18.537

[2.351] [5.287]**

Observations 63,824 60,021 63,868 60,064

R-squared 0.74 0.75 0.68 0.69

Number of clusters 60 60 60 59

All variables are in thousands of 1979 pesos. Blue Gap is defined as the absolute value of the gap between the marginal product of blue collar labor and the blue collar wage rate, normalized by the 3-digit industry output price deflator. The marginal product of blue collar labor is estimated using a value-added Levinsohn-Petrin estimator to address simultaneity. The blue collar wage rate is obtained by dividing the total blue collar wage bill by the number of blue collar employees. White Gap is defined similarly. The underlying production functions used for calculating the gaps are estimated separately for each 3 digit industry. Standard errors are clustered at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

��

Figure A1 Differences Across Years in the Absolute Gap

Blue and White Collar Labor Levinsohn-Petrin Estimator

The graph plots the coefficient on year dummies in regression of absolute gap between marginal product of an input and its normalized price, including firm fixed effects and industry output growth rate. Year 1980 is normalized to 100. The underlying value added production function is estimated using the Levinsohn-Petrin procedure.

Absolute gap between marginal product and wage/price(Value added LP production function)

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

BLUE WHITE

�7

Table A2 Labor Demand Regression

Blue Collar Employment, Fixed Effects

Blue Collar Labor

Period 1 (1979-84)

Period 2 (1985-90)

Period 3 (1991-96)

All Periods

Constant 1.593 1.554 2.081 0.892

[0.094]** [0.188]** [0.236]** [0.045]**

Blue wage -0.151 -0.26 -0.282 -0.23

[0.021]** [0.023]** [0.022]** [0.008]**

Blue wage_t-1 -0.01 0.06 0.065 0.091

[0.012] [0.018]** [0.017]** [0.007]**

White wage 0.098 0.062 0.023 0.06

[0.012]** [0.013]** [0.019] [0.004]**

White wage_t-1 -0.027 -0.017 -0.017 -0.042

[0.010]** [0.008]* [0.008]* [0.004]**

Value added 0.11 0.101 0.117 0.115

[0.008]** [0.010]** [0.010]** [0.004]**

Value added_t-1 0.032 0.038 0.017 0.009

[0.005]** [0.004]** [0.007]* [0.003]**


[0.017]** [0.025]** [0.021]** [0.010]**

Period Dummy (1985-1990) -0.037

[0.016]*

Period Dummy (1991-1996) -0.029

[0.019]

Period Dummy (1985-1990)*Blue Employment_t-1

0.023

[0.005]**

Period Dummy (1991-1996)*Blue Employment_t-1

0.022

[0.006]**

Observations 17650 20416 23155 61221

R-squared 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93

Dependent variable is the log (Blue Collar Employment). All other variables are also in logs. Standard errors are adjusted for clustering at the 4-digit industry level. + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%.

� >

Figure A2 Trends in Real Wages

Source: Authors’ calculations

Figure A3 Inflation and Unemployment Rate

Source: Edwards & Edwards (2000), ILO statistics, authors’ calculations.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

16019

79

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Median_Real_White_Wage Median_Real_Blue_Wage

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

Inflation_rate (cpi) Unemployment_rate

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