ISAF XXIIXXII International Symposium onAlcohol Fuels

ISAFBack to the Future

40 years past, 40 years future

Sergio C. Trindade春大地

sstrindade@alum.mit.edu

Cartagena de Índias, Colombia 9-11 March 2016

By Martin St. Amant

A brief history of ISAF: 1976-201615 countries, 5 continents, 40 years

• Alcohol Fuels (oxygenated fuels): methanol, ethanol, ethers and esters; renewable and fossil origin

• Sweden (2), Germany (1), USA (3), Brazil (2), New Zealand (1), Canada (1), France (1), Japan (1), Italy (2), South Africa (2), China (2), Thailand (1), India (1), Korea (1), Colombia (1), Next host country ?

• The benefits and costs of ISAF informality (no bylaws, no secretariat, no budget, no headquarters); IOC role

• The need for continuously evolving new, younger commitment, leadership and membership in ISAF

• Energy services (mobility, lighting,heating,cooling and rotary movement)

vs energy sources

• Alcohol fuels energy services: mobility on land, water and air; cooking fuel

• Will co-exist with hydrocarbons and electric traction

Epitome of alcohol fuels

• Will power ever evolving engine systems in combination with electricity, others or

alone

• Driving forces changed in relative importance over time: energy security, alternative markets to agriculture, local environment and more recently climate change

• Sustainability of alcohol fuels depends on international trade and sustainability can be traded

Epitome of alcohol fuels

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996• Edited by Roy Sage* (Canada), 1986, and based on

IOC members’ first 10-yr experience. Also production and end-use

technologies

• Driving forces for the utilization of alcohol fuels: - Strategic concern of actual or threatened oil

shortages- Economic and social benefits of using non-oil

sources - Environmental benefits, compared to

conventional oil sources*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

Production technology:• Ethanol from cellulosic feed-stocks• Ethanol from methane or natural gas• Methanol from various sources (natural gas,

naphtha, coal, peat, wood and different processes)

• Higher alcohols (butane) by fermentation• Co-production of methanol and higher

alcohols

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

End-use technology :

• Alcohol fuels for modern, high speed high compression engines (ignition,

flame speed and emissions)• Overcome phase separation and corrosion

issues in low-level blends• Introduction of high-level blends facilitated by

replacing existing grade of gasoline• Need to further develop neat alcohol fuels to

cope with higher aldehyde emissions, lube oil and cold start issues

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

End-use technology:

• Development of “fuel tolerant” vehicles, known today as “flex-fuel” vehicles

• Approaches to alcohol fuels in compression ignition two-stroke diesel engines:

- pseudo-compression ignition; - high-compression spark ignition; - dual fuel injection with diesel pilot flame- less particulate emissions, durability,

lubrication• Future prospects: methanol dissociation via exhaust

heat into carbon monoxide and hydrogen; alcohol fuel cells that avoid the Carnot cycle

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Obscure future for alcohol fuels: prevalent 1986 low oil prices, cheap oil for

years to come!

• Prices at $20/bbl or lower until the early 1990’s.

• Higher prices from a revitalized OPEC or from higher developing countries demand,

enhanced by concerns over coal and nuclear power generation.

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Oil prices could rise rapidly towards the end of the XX century: decreasing output

from Alaskan North Slope, North Sea.

• Alcohol fuels not competitive until oil prices rise, which may take a while to

materialize

• Upper bound for oil prices is the opportunity cost of competing fuels: Arctic

oil, synthetic oil from sands and shale, heavy crude, liquid fuels from coal and the alcohols

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Alcohol fuels to be used where they have achieved a foothold, in the USA and Brazil and penetrate the octane market elsewhere

• Same alcohol fuel driving forces will continue to operate, namely security of oil supply; broad economic benefits and

environmental benefits

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Instability in the Middle East will prompt OECD to seek energy source diversification

• In the USA methanol from coal would be a strong contender

• In the EU methanol from remote natural gas (North and Norwegian Sea or Canadian Arctic) should be considered before coal

• Japan could consider methanol from stable countries

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Developing countries, lacking foreign exchange could benefit from domestic fuel ethanol, appropriate technologies, well organized plans: Argentina, Kenya, Malawi,

Zimbabwe

• Direct economic benefits take time to develop

• Indirect economic benefits: lowering of oil prices by fuel ethanol market penetration

• Positive environmental benefits, except aldehydes. Improving environmental impact of liquid fossil fuels

Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996

*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

• Strategic, economic and environmental costs not factored in free market approaches

• Introduction of alcohol fuels in most markets requires political will and decision

• Future role of alcohol fuels will be largely dependent on government

initiatives • If direct economic benefits continue to be elusive,

only the indirect economic, the strategic and the environmental objectives would justify continued technological development and modest market penetration

Key figures and fast facts

Growth in liquids demand is driven by transport and industry…

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 © BP p.l.c. 2015

Biofuels production by regionMillion tonnes oil equivalent

World biofuels production

In 2014:Global ethanol production increased by 6.0% Biodiesel production increased by 10.3%

40 years future• Biofuels not all born equal. Same

molecules, but different processes, costs, infrastructure• Scale issue. Today only 3% of transport

fuels. Natural limits of biofuels: land, water, sunshine , capital, management • Future role of the electric power

drive

40 years future• Digital transformation, mobility

demand, energy mix change• The climate change driver. Role of

international trade• Future of ISAF lies on committed

new generations of believers