qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

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Transcript of qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

Page 1: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

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GdrnJipLJrrm oj JmbGLcçJ'A cowbGçiçJIG GcououJk JI GLG2cJuJ?

JOL 2JJbbJA RLJ1JG JJIJ 2 1AGU }JG JA 0J IJJOçJOJJ OL C4OL bLJcGe 4}J C}JLC-

jipiinm) q?iimic obçiwisnçoi bLopjGm OL OH2G}JOJ RJO CjJOO2G2 p12 obçimj

rnJGmbJ0AJJJGUç inç iii OJiL qGuJciou pç 1InoJi 2oJ/Ju (bLciJ Gdm-

bLicG2 tG bLocGGq 4O COIJ24L11C coLLG2bouqiu GdfIijJpLrnw bLocG2e OL }JG

(m) OUCG HG qGçGLWJLTG GdflTJJpLifrUJ j& o moçioiJ jOL dHuiJG2 uq

o 4JJG 2GqA H2!U Jo-JJuGLc!oIJ cGcpIJdnG qG2cLJpGq iu CnmbpGJJ

pj nbbLox1m GdrnJipLJrnJJ o OIIL WoqGJ GcOuouJk n LTGJppoL}Jooq

siJq GXJç o juu

LGGC6 J]J CO1TIJçGLCCJJCJ UJLJ1Ib2 uq LG2HJçIIJ (LU OJIL mocjGj) pom cpG 6IJçL?

rnJGmbJo?dJJGu4 L9G LGdJflLG2 C2CJIGJ AL1çJOJJ2 rn GLGG o LULJ(G boGL—

oi bLGLGucG2 uq lAG 2}JOIA pç GXJ2çGIJcG o rn

muc (n qjuq poi.G) GX12 EHLIJGLWOLG rnJqGL om. (2çuqLq) n22rrmbçJou2

tOL IAOLJGL2 JLLU JGAGJ o )JAG u? Lf(G bolAGL nq J0L nuGmbJoK-

Page 10: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

EJ'J°' iiq bICJJGJWJJIJ (j)

JJG LUJGEAOLfC bLoboq }JGLG p cJJG boç€uçij ccorruç jo JoL 2bGcç

JuqTAJqrrJ OHGOJ2 IAJ2JJ rrbbj? JJJ LGbou2G CJJ€ uJ }JG GIJAiLornuGIJ4

JJJ&LJ(G GCO1JO1JJIG15 B2 JJORJU OL uiou dnuççi? oj JOL

4J3G CXCJJCJ 1Cç14JOJJ2 J]J 4JJG JOL OLC& j6çJTLG O 4}JG qc bLG2GIJç Ill UJO2

JOL GIJcJOEUJJGIJç &A COIJ2LJ1C4 OIJ 2JTC}J t LJ1C1TTLG GUUOç ccornç tOL

1AGIJ p qJJJsLGucG GAGGIJ }JG d1WUççK O JOL qwuqq JJqrn

22flUJJU JIJçGq &IJ !JJGJc!C JOL 2nbbJ? ju moqj nuGuthJoAiuGuç

D&UcP!UG qo uoç jjoii OL JpoL-JcJ2nLe cpoicG p }JO1T2GOJ

rn bLG€uç bgbGL jGç uq JIJ cou4L2ç EAJJJ 4}JG LJ1JGftOLfC qGAGJobGq }JGLG

poi€ coJubGipAG JJJLJGc-CJGLJIJ JGAGJ uq uGu'çG nuGmbjo?uiJGuc

uq (J)) 2 J2 iGJJ JJQtAJJ 2OG O }JO2G JGWGIJ2 C1J JGq o

2}rnLIIJ IJJIIJIIJJHIJJ ELG2 uq nuG1ubJo?uJGuç 2fTp2Jq1G (Duc11wG

GflLG2 JucJHqG GWCJGUC?k AG2 (jjuçpJu6 uq -jq° (oY AGJJ L1J-

JJLJIJ JOL IJJLJ<G G9flLG8 IIJ u OJJGLII2G açuqq uJoqGJ ircp

(saoioY ijJo p' GXUJWG JwbJicçIou2 ot iuçLoqncJu ALJGç7 ot

jj bLsiip bbGL p CJGL bLGcGqGuç ill liOLJ( O DU1UG 1Jq D-Jq°

GuJbJO?uJJGuc

combJçJG J0L 2nbbJ? qGcJeJoIJ LHJG uq GdrnjipLrnm JEh o mojo1J OL

Page 11: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

Jo

Lm CCG2 420 G0U242U42 LG42HLIJ 42GC}JJJOJOA 42}J12 42LIJ20LIJJ2 iuçGLuJGqJcG IIJ-

1}JG prnj ooq bioqirc€q p? bGLGG42JK c0IIJbG42I42JAG LGbLGGJJ42çJAG JLUJ JJJ42

T E!''I ooq

GCUG 42JJG mLfcGp 242LHC42fJLG uq iu 20G qGçJJ

2bGcçJAGjA aiuj jjuj ooq uq coijçnJnnm o JuçGLmqJcG JubH422 xç ii

JJJG bLoqrrcçioIJ jq oj 421JG coiiomX c0112J2422 o GC42OL2 picp cnuJ on LG-

JJJJG J/JOGJ

o 421JG IJJOqGJ GC42J0U COUCJfJG2 &uq bouç 420 eour bo2JpJG GX42GIJ2JOJJ2

20Jfr42J0U UJG42JJOq tJJ 421JG 24242J242JCJ bLObGL42IG2 0 IJJ1IIJ}DGL 0 CJJpL42Gq AGLI0IJ2

gJJJ?G2 !42 GdrnJJpLnLw ccou GIJUG2 rnJGUJbJ0AUJGU42 Gcc!ou 2 qGcLJpG2 42JJG

jjr bj o 42}JG bbGL 12 2 0JJ0E2 GC4210IJ 5 BLG2IJ422 c}JG LuoqGJ 2GC42101J

IIJtLJG42 JUJbGLGC42i0U2

JJ0/ 0L JpoL-JGJ2JTrLG c}J0JcG) wJau 142 bo22JpJG 420 i2oJçG 42JJG LOJG o JpoL

combLpJG 420 242LTJL p112111622 C?CJG moqGJ2 OJTLJ 111 42JJG JJ42GL42J1LG (±ipcp qo

0 J&0L JJ1LJ(G42 HflCciT42i0JJ2 })1L42}JGL1IJ0LG OJ1L LUJGiI10LJC GC0G2 0LG LGqJJ

Page 12: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

LI

AJJ1CJJ JIJ 41TLIJ JUJbJiG2 x = V =

GdlTJJJpLJrrm np boiii bLoqrrciou GXJ2ç Jç UJJ12 G JJG C2G =

E}JGLG 'q 'b (b()1_€)1 ic 12 G&21JK CJJGCJCG OL

=()€ ()

E [O J] ()

OAG 4f 4JJG OLJJJ o 2 o q€miq JflJcçJoU2 OL JJJGLUJGqJfG rnbfr2

(ipicj JGLJ 2 }JG urruJLJLs) IPG L2 OLGL couqJcJoIJ2 OL bLopJGm

2JTplGcç (j) liJGLG 1() qGlJoçG2 BLIcG o iiibnç rn GLW2 o 4jJG TJIJJ ooq

LJJX

JJJG LGbLG2GLJççJAG 11LUJ m9XJUJ1G2 1ç2 bLoJç2 GCJJ bouç RJ

E [o > j J2 GJçrcJç o 2np2JçncJou wou Ju4GLmGqJçG rnbc12

ll}J6LG J qGIJO4G2 çJJG o ooq 12 o iubflç

1\ (JT)L (.T)

bnç2 flJço çJJG JIJJ ooq Lrq AJflC}J 12 LGbLG2GIJçGq pA çp CE bLoqrcçoJJ jjrucpou

Page 13: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

'5

jpu urrujbjou ucqcq IOL ptjiiccq ol/p buçp iip boiAG Loiip cxiçuJoqj iic omj rnqiipA JIJGX RG11GAGL 4J1GLG i 110 LIJ( o coJJIflIoIJ

13111 0LGL jJpcu uoçuiou JJq iAGll Am1uçLA 11cLo rnqnaLJ iupqqq Ju

1 +c (si')

111TçOLGLG22JAG bLocG

{} quoçe eçocpeJc combouGuç o JJtL1C}J OJJOii JL4-oLqGL

AJJJcp 11JO coLLGbouq 4O }JG L11G O LOR4jJ O JpOL-11rrmGIJçiu cGC}JIJOJO.k1

111J OAGL}J CbJç11J LGdrnLuJGIip J AJJJC}J LOE2 11.ç flJ XOGIJOH2 LO22 L11G Y

o c11bJJ 11IJq J11OL GWCG2 GIJJBJOAGq pA jLm ii bGLioq % EI LW }J112

y 11JJ qG]Jo4& LbGcçJA€JA jij o onçbffç uq dcruçiçiG2

= Gxb() (y — ) (J (52)

JT11JC41OLJ

cçor y Abjcj jr.m (A jLm ) u iiu qnaLA p 11CCG

oJJLU bLoqrrciu }JomoGIJGofr iuçLm€qç ooq ojq }JG uJ ooq

rrui nJç€Lj cp JIJqHLA iJJqGxGq pA E [o J] COIJç2 o 11 JIJIçG IJITTJJpGL

JJJG JuçGLuJGqiçG GGOL J2 11qG iib O4 11 COIJIIJ11JTW O iuqfreçLJG LGbLG2GJJcGq pA

Ju6LIJJGqG ooq

Page 14: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

'3

JJJG 22OCJcGq JL2 OLqGL couqJcJoua GdJ1çG GC C4OL)2 UJLJIJJ LGAGJJJ1G

IJJ1IJJGL 0J JLW2 LU }JG JJX{fT2L?. S' 2 ThGIJ

j çJJG jLLU2 iii }JG Juqn2cLX uq

orrLuoc combçiçiou iuqr2LX JGAGJ AJçJJ Gcp JLW JcJu LG4G q-

onçbnç for. WG (xu — j) ji.m Ju iuqirr.A (ocpGL LW ) JG 22UG

AGLG 3S qGuOçG2 4}JG IJJTUJGL O Cç1AG LW2 LU JJG uqrr2çL? 12 }JG AGLG

= 1 (2)(a_ i) +(

2fIp]GC JJq }JG J1JAGLG qmrnq 2C}JGqJTJG (qGLiAGq LOIJJ ())

IJJX —N\ V —

&2 oJjoA2:

uJxJuJJçJou bLopJGw c€q p? u juçLmGqie Lm Grc}J br.ioq cu G oLuJJJGq

}JG AG . uq 4JJG LGUj C02ç O CJDJ4J i 2 JAGIJ JJJJ12 }JG (2cic) bLoç

]fC}J iuGLInGqJçG JLW LG1J42 jpoL uq cbij 2GLAICG2 FLOW COIJ21TIJJGL2 cJiu

JuqITapLIG2 uq ULJJJ2

uq J 2 tAGJJ 2 LGJJiOua O {} LG 22H11JG 40 G coiuuou 40 JJ

V = O OL O '-'q = = O I bLLUGGL2

Page 15: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

f'f

LJL1UC obçimj cpoJcG o cbJcj 2 ll1GJJ 2 ice bLiCG-CGççJIJ qGCI2IOIJ'

eGççJLr br.ocee 92 RiG RJJJ 2GG pGJORi) MG ]JOG cpc () JLGq?i G1JJGC{2 cp

bLojc2 (uq ftqsicp ijj jeo p€ bLmGçLJcJJA p? ice RiOLJCGL2 Ju 4JJG RG-

12 AGC4OL OJ AflJG2 2 AGU pK GC1J iIJqiAJqffJ JLUJ tA}JGIJ mximu

12 coiçiirnorrej7 qJGLGUcJpJG fnJccJoJJ oLmJJA qGL1AGJ ILl cj bbGuqix

IA}JGLG [ &s nJq uq Ri}JGLG :

= (5•)

!cI) cJGçGLIJJJJJGq p?

cIJG dfJ1Jcic?i O JOL G]JJbJO?iGq p:k IJG ULUJ () (nubjic-

Luuq 2C}JGqfIJG

RiJJGLG(s

+ 2 22ocJcGq RLI42JJ LW 2 qG-

(I —)

= ()

(1 — (x =jI

bLoqfrcç ice LGUJ coec iiq LG iA6U

Page 16: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

12

= €xb() (J1)

OJJOAiIJ LGqrrcGq-oLw .LGçG bLoqncçJoll 1TUc41OU

couqJçJou = &sz (JJGLG JJOE2 112 o qGLJAG

ApGLG jji bii.iorr LG21TJ couJpiiJGq içp cjJ 22WJUJGçLJC GdInJipurrm

=(5) ('l'

+() _1)

O Lm2 2 HUCçJOU O LG4G c&biçj 2cocjc

flIJGL c}JG 22111JJh1JOJ3 o L€G uçQ iq GLO bLo2 EG CJJ 2OJLG OL }JG IJ1TUJGL

ftJJGLG \

c•s= — (i—

) ( )] (0)

LL1J2 bLoj2 113 2AJJJIJJGçLJC Gdrs!J!pLimJJ:

c°c°' () uq() cu p n2Gq qGLIAG u GXJDLG22IOIJ J0L U

JLG?J.çG cbij 2OCJC

= J = = &k uq y = OL = 5 "1S ll}JGLG y GIJOG2

42}JG LIJG cJ3WJJçJçJG2 JJq GIJJbJO?k 21JJG J6AGJ2 o Jubfr2 w C2G 1G JJtAG

MG OC1I2 013 22UJJIJJGçLJC GdJ1IJ1pLIJ1UJ 113 EL}JICJJ JJ ULIJJ2 113 JJ JIJqH24LiG2 bLoqrrcG

Page 17: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

.1 (\)H 1 bria —

(A)c sieriw.

iitaIs-saw sri iol noieiqxe na eviisb na sw (0f.) f1i8U siomisr{tiii

!mIrildiIiLrps DiiJemm srIt ta bstaiIsvs briamb iodal rrnfi a

bo Iaiqa staeia sr1 lo rioinu1 a

(I.) cs:;)) ( -1) + = ( -iau o 2rtoitibrlo3 th15iDfflu .0 < (\) bita I < tar{ srruaaa w r{tro1srnsH

bas sf{ 'lo boorIiodr{ieri a iii ae1 ta) blorl 5itilaLrpedH auoivsiq sr{t arLt ssria

ietsrriaiaq lo te8 sIdartoaei ria iol bloil I1aisrie Iliw bria )IBSW 19V SIa (sa ot bsaIsi Isviioq i briamsb iodal lo Ji3Laa15 eaw sr{t saa arkt ru '.sijiav

Hi rbirfw (A)ru = boos etaib5ml5thli srIt iol briarnsb siLt lo ti3ffaIs sriq siLt

aa i tluasi tarLt iol noitirrthii sr{T .±o 1atiqa3 589TS siLt iii ruiaasiDrui i irwt

srioqasi Iamitqo rruifl siLt !saasiDrn saw Ditai3noibi na lo 93B1 siLt ni :woIIo1

tirqftro iii noit3ubs1 a (d) bita oitai iodaI\1atiqao siLt ru seasl3rui na (a) asv!ovrui

lo noiheiib siLt ni *row (d) bits (a) rItoH .(sasi3rui sDnq thisupsruoD siLt rLtiw)

iliw trusnruioIqrns iii trismnr[ba biawirwob siLt lo si silT .tnrerrrioIqrrrs ruiwbsi

s rr& w OI. iiiaIJ <n Ii blod Hiw 0 < ' rLJ faoib oi i tI ninhn ovod ai A3o J&fiq& iba rL noJ a bfiaii d Iliw ili3cJpo11i ru rf3JJa

.woId behoq31 rioiJi1umia 9rf II iii b9fiBia Iia aw rioiibno J8dT .bIodairLt

Page 18: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

t22flmhpoJJ comprueq Jçp peucc o bLeqcccLiuJucq0 iubncLJJJ co o ccbJcj jjc cmjç oJJoiI Low ccqruojo) pomocueJc?1 ot qcee ouc

1w oçpei. J,oLq rn ce biuueq qoiu p we rcco bLjcc LoUJcL JAdUrn pAq cc i (r0I))•

WOLJL2 uJLjce boiici i Le1TJ Jil wc pLJJJJJJ ji4cLçJ1LG (ec& e cpbccLJjic cxcucc o couuccçiou pcceu ooq mqcc combcc!cucrJe uq we pc qcec oj

JJOffGJJOJ aTG&JJ aT ora moqç JAG AIGJA }JOJ12G}JOJ 2 coueJçJu o

O JpoL 2GLAJCG2 ojq pA }JOJThG}JOJ s• jç i-1U1c2 qGbGLrq ou poi JAG uJçGLbLGç

(o i) GGLUJBJG2 CHLIHLG O JOL qTFIçJJJçA GLJOfG2 cJJG diruçjçA

fiJGLG c (uoLmJTGq) coiairuthçiou \ e (o j) i qi2conuc WccoiY nrq

(joas) (J)00

bLGGLGJJcG LG LGBLG2GIJçGq pA qi nçiJJ4A rncçToIr

COIJçJIJnfJIJJ O JqGJJ4JcJ JJOfT2G}JOJ i]JqGXGq pA s E [oT] flOfT2GpOJq

'GCOJJJG \tCO JAG cJ(GL1

qmuq 2C}JGHJG GCOIJJG BGLGCçJA jc (iG \ —÷ oo) nJq LGfrJç JAOLfCGL2

JU ooqa LLT&LJ(G ( JmbpGq pA —* oo) nJqiJuqIaTJ LW2 j&poi

JJ1}JGL J2 4JJG BL1CG-GJ2çJCIçA o qGuJIJq HIU IJG jmcu C2G o bGLGCç C0LLJbGçJ-

qGbGlJq ou obçimj LGqnc4Jou ar oiibnç 1Jq cJJG J144GL EAJJJ G LG4GL 4JJG

Page 19: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

COJJL&C }JO2G JOIT2GJJOJ2 GCOUJG iIJ2iqGL2 40 JJG ULJ1J JJJ 2G1J26 G

COULC EJ & 2G OJ JJO112G}1OJ2 IMçJJ (rrnijouii) LJJG21TLG LMIJ

AOLJGL2 ID cçrrj GCOJJOUJIG2 yç }JG pGirnnu o b€uoq JI.UJ GUGL2 J9OL

}JG JOL IJLJG L11q1ç1G2 LUè G LOO O 1JK UJLJ(Gç botiGL G1flO?Gq p?

2LJ1CfL1LG JW2 tic CtibçJTILJJJ iii ti 2ç?qiGq (tiuiq tiqmiçGqJ? tiq-poc) JJJtiJJJJGL 2OJJJG o

112 UOIi 11LLJ co }JG ittr 2G4çiJJ tiIJq GIlJbJo2\nrGuc qGci2Jou2 JJJG ti2211UJG

c}JG Lm ( 2ti?) E1}JGLG p0112G}JOJq S JOLJ2

RJGLG ((J—

9) + 9 12 }JG qGbLGcitiçJoJJ LtiG tiuq 12 1JG PAtiG btiiq pI

J y€+J = y+ i' — (J)

0Th2GJJ0J S2 qXIJtiUJIC prrqG COJJ24LtiJIJç 12 .JAGIJ p?

}JOH2G}JOJ tiLG bGqGcç aripaççnça pom cJJG JtiGL2 AJGIAb0IUç

&uq GXcGU2JAG) OL JIJCLGti2JU coctij drr&uçiç? o Jtipor. 2GLAICG2 ojq p cJJG

tiJ20 bO22JpjG ti2 jOIJ ti2 ftG tiLG IILJIJ tiCCGbç cito UJtiLJU2 (iucGu2iAG

GUJbJ0AGq (J/oLciu ti JX6q 1JiiIJJGL Oj JJOJTL2) pJçGLmGqJtiçG iuçGLbLGçtiçIoJJ2 tiLG

xi iiorijq LGbLG2GIJç ti UJGti2HLG o 2FIP2G o OJT2GOj LIJGIJJGL2 42}JtIç tTLG

GXLGIJJG llG Cti]J t12 pGiIJ JJJtiG iib o ti coucimrnm o JIJqiAJqiTtiJ2 ID

2JUjG tiGJJ D JJ&2 JJtiçIILtiJ JuçGLbLGçtiçiou o JJOITL2 O ELOLf yc cIJG O}JGL

Page 20: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

10

poçp iicc uq GuJbJo?rJJuc)JUGjJCJGIJf JJJ GJJL13J (i O4JJ HkOLJCGL 1311q JL1JJ corrjq pG GfGL 0j4 J coiijq p13L13J13 OAGL

o-Lurn13c; \J qjcncq 113 J,JCOuJq wq aojoi (jj) COllL132 13LG JWOMU Giniiq iic LilCfilLG coLLboIJq2 o wouoboj? iTrnou içp Ljjiç-

wc = (uni o pona€jojq x jpoL 2GLJUCG JTJJIç2 b porrGpoJq)

poçj cp JLm uq }JG rruqGLpJqqGLR yccoLqJuj?! o jpoL

13OJ€ p JnJqGLpJq p7. oJ1JqGL atu poir ioiijq p pujp

4O TJLUJ III B13LçJCJTJJY 13JJ GGJTJ2G O }JG J13OL J1LJJOAGL CO2ç JTGçGq

cp JLW2 iu2iqGLe GGcçiAGJK pojq mouobojX oIJ 4}JG 2rrbbJA o J9]DOL 26LAJCG2

2JJOCJC jJa GG1J OGLAG IJq €OLG pjurnu o ojjoiJu bGLioq JjJrre

qqipoiJj OfI2GJJJ2 (picy LGGL o oiJc

biuq LOJJJ Gx4GuqJu cp couli.cc (or. LftJJJ ui ouG) ttJçp ue

O JLJCHUJpGU4 ELOLJL2 }JLG13 1JO4 4O coobGLçG or. 1JL22 IJA IJGft }JILG2) c}rG

GJç}JGL qG 111112 (pGcn2G ot cJo2Gq-2}Job JicG Le2cLJcciou2) o qe cço (pGc13fr

LfrJGq OfI4 p? 4}JG GXJ2çGIJCG o (2JTciGuq1 JLG) LIJJ co242 GcoIJq ffiG 28J1UJG

22fruJbçJOIJ2 JL2ç G&LJA O }JG CO1JçLC4 pA JLJJJ 12 GGCcJAGJA

jjr ujoIJobojA boi€r. GIf)oAGq pA jLw 1IJ2iqGL2 LG21IJ2 r.om r.ubjiciç

J1JIJ-JJOfrLa 01 AOLJGL2 qGbG1JqiJJ ou JJG Ju€LbLGçJou o s) j/€U }J4

L1JJ ITJG LJJJ O CJJOO2G 1ç2 qG2iLGq JGAGJ Oj 61UbJ0AUJGIJç (FG c}JG JJITUJpGL o

2G4 }JG AG L4G HIJJJGLJJA (çGL OP2GLA!IJ }JG 2JJocJc) uq (p)

GxbJiuGq GJ0E TPOL COJJLC42 J2ç OJJG bGLioq COULC2 () G1JçJ4jG E0LJGL2

Page 21: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

50

C+1

{( ) +} =

= c (ie)

jjr obçimjiç? coIJqJcJou2 OL jrnç bLopJsm LG JAGU p?L

J0L }JG GcouomA-IIJqG uq JIJqrr2çL?-liuqG ALaTJG2

}JG jpo qGwiJq 2CJJGHJG (j ipj JJU &2 1AG1J JG GdIrJJJpLIHUJ bLocG

LJJXTIJJJçJOIJ o (5j3) alTrplGcç }J qAuiic pirqGç COJJçL1JJç (j) LJq

Joju2 qGçGLWJUG cJJG COIJ2J1UJbçJOIJ irq 2gAju coJJJçGuç iiJçjJ

LGCOIJJ4OU c}JGA yCG OEfltAL 2JobrIJ qGmIJq G}JGf1JG (J 1jç

opflofl2 IJcGaçiAG o fJJ 1TJJ GX4G1J LULJCG boiiiY mJJJJG2çGq JJJ

9 fJLJJJ2 ruarqGL2 G[GCcJAGJA t9C6 &u 1quçc&j bLopfGuI IIJGA J2O jrn

2 EUJJ pCOJJJG CJGL pjoi }JG 2'AmmGçLè mpqqq nJ 0111. uJoqGJ imbji

= 0 (512)

qGurnIJqGq p? 11L1JJ \ JIJ bGLioq s .JA6U JJJbJ!CcJ? p?.

Page 22: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

5T

= GXb() () &sJ ()(J)

dlrGucG c* cv

MG GJIJG (2AImJJGcLIC) GdFJJJJpLJITm 0 01ff IJJOGJ GC0JJ0UJA 2 2ç0CJJçJC 2G-

EdflfflP4flm

;0L gjj \

wc' J2O cpç JIJ 2JTCJJ U GdHJJIpLJIIUJ = = uq = =

cjJ RG mLfcfrb iiijj p commou jj LW uq JAGU pA 'i(y)

LGGL 92 JJG ' 2AmmG4LJc GdrnppLisuu iç ojjo jLou.J (J)

rq J0L LG2fIJçiIJ JLOIJJ cIJG uJL]cGç botiGL GJJ10AGq pA AoLJcGL& nJq ll}JJCp IG

GGGIJ EiG IJq jJG WLIJJ LGJçoIJ o 1Tp2cicJJcJou GftGGIJ counmbçiou

0L \ = 3" E4JGLG y ' (iicj qpsq 9' poAG) J2 4}JG liGqG

£—400 CLJim v\ ()

= o (jg)

Page 23: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

O 4G ALJpJG2 [y = ) IOGJJGL RJpJJ 2G4 O

C&IJ pG JJJ GIJGL1J LGBLG2GUçGq JLaç-oLq€L jGLGU6 GdJ1JO1J tOL c}JG AGCOL

0JAGIJ cJJG LGCJ1L2JAG 24LHCHLG ocJJG moqj }JG GdrnJJpLJfJm bLocG2a {c A &s cv

J0L poçj BLIcG2 uq RG2•

CCflUJG GuçLl o UG jLuJ JG2 LGqncçJoIJ Lu GdrnppLrnLu wLJarb

ernbçiou& \ < j uq y < LGJJGCçJIJ cç cjc cbçj

OG}JGL RJ4}J () uq II1}JGLG \() Et)T J 4JJG br.JcG IJJLJUth flIJqGL OJ1L

pm () = 0 ()

= (j - ) + (\))Gxb() (Q)

= ()) ('- )Gxb() (32)

=

c+I{(—--) +} = I

Page 24: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

xpipi qqj-boru pJjJç wprcJJ jocuj nrnduu o GdHJJJpLJHUJo jwbj.c coujbjjou JG jOL jj cJJpuiçcq Lrofl o moqj couJqcLq GLG

iiiiboç cdrnJJpLn (ooqoLq (jg)) cuuoç G LJTJGq oii rn Ju bi.cuconuq q? jyç bLobL cuuoç p Jucc jocij JuqoccLmJuuc? uq pno;Jc ii imbpcr? 1TWW GdIJJJJpLLIIUJ i irnidrr& JG2 JocJJ

GdrnppLJnm bLocG jor. rruGwbJoAmGuç LGdrnLG2 ojiu bLçJJ GdrnjipLrnm

jii o moçiou oL GmbJo?uJGu mbJiGq pA (j)-() qGçGLmiuJu

GcouomA

co co\ irq (p) cj cnj dnuççA o jpoL 2GLAJCG2 GiubjoAGq Ju

jt o\ oos \o. usAJCG2 4jJG LbLG2GIJççJAG pofla€JJoJq TpG2 o 2nbbJA yss\ c spj GIJG jJ JI6LGUCG pGçii€u () diriiçA o jpoi. L-

T flUGUJbJO?JIJGU

CmbPGIJ ()

IJGJ}JpoLpooq o ac€qA pA WGtU2 ot pG Jo-JrnGLTçJou u€cjoq o

GdrnJJpLJrrm mJcçJou2 prrç 8' qGcLipGq pjo C9IJ bbLoximçG pG}JAJOL

ppum coJJqJcJo1J (j)-() qo€ iJoç JJO!A IT opiu u xcç 20J11ç1011 OL f}JG

= uuq i = flJJtOLcrnJc6JA IJoIJJJuGL UJTLG O GdHJ-

AJfIG O 42}J 24G ALipJG2 = \(y ') c = c( ') = s(y

GdrnJipLJJrm couqicioIJ2 JJJJJUIJ &cji JrLJspJG ftJ coIJçGuJboLuGo1Ta

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I

{() +} = I (i-s)

pc br.opjm LG .JAGU p?

pj o BGLGCçJA combGc!ciAG JJOJT2GJJOJq JJJG obcrm&fIc2\. coIJqJcJou2 eocJcGq

R1}JGLG ftG JGç ALIjG2 /AçJJ 2ITBGLCLIbç dIG (UoLmJiGq) CJJOJCG Iu-

= )

uq GdIrJJJpLIHIJJ JR O IJJOdIOIJ

= +(e) — (J)8frplGCc dO

o ( c - &

EOLTJ iUAOJiG UJximiiIJ

d cpO ELG2 uq ll}JO2G qGCiJOu2 AG JJGJi.JpJ6 JUJbCç Oil 4}JG GCOIJOJJJA

qG2CLIpGq poAG) cjc c jj G JG co jj umcp jpoL iç j co 2ITbbJX

IG J(GL pGJJGAJu (rncoLLGcçJ JAGIJ 1JG LG2çLJCçIOU Oil JJILJJJ uq JLJIJ

qAiJuJic obçiuniou bLopJGm cq pX tIJ uquuqnj pon€pojq Iipo G}JAG2

Page 26: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

(;.4)

.0 = () \ 1 miI noifibrioD tiI 9vn1t r{ brr

ritthw 5d n mirano iLt-Bw er{t ioI iorb Iqqtra iodI IEmitqo grIT

Iirbivibni rI bn bn A 89IdthlBv ow ri lo noftrnth E

eIdthiv 9J

*\* _* L'.) —

thwoIIo1 erif d briimith ai &' rt crns rtf rioiirifith iro rl5viD

:( \) IdBi1v 9tht2 951 f{ 1o ioibnus

() (()*) o1 =

biqini 9d rrn o boqmi ai = noitqmija It5mma 5r{ 515r{w

fl boiiq rivi rt b1orIuori vithtne51q91 r{f lo iorb Iqqir lodBI rIt a f1E ot II bIJJo3 fi ivia iodI lo ifriip 9r{t no anothiitai ris ton bib ti

(iebitro n ai r{ r{ir1w ot 9891 rLtiw rrriH 5rff oJ ifJsDitIEq ru bru) mill

a beiqi9JrIi d ri& b9ruft9b iirf tn5m1oIqmerIU ruiIiEv1q

Page 27: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

(jj) OL nr GxboTçiou o oJnciou mpoq

(bGLtGc 0LGi}J4) 2cGq? AGG0L {y ?t c Y

obGLçoL) 113 (J)-() lAG 0p11IJ 1 2AGW 0 GCJ1TJ0U2 J1JJbJiciçJ? CJGçGLUJJIJI1J

GççJu = j uq qLobbrn jj anp2cLJbç (uq GxbGcçJou

2J

}GJJ G flG bbLoxJmçG GdrnppLrnm rnJGmbJo?JJJGIJç pnJccJou

4JJG C0UJbGçJçJAG J0L aiibbj? bojcX uric LG2f1J IApICJJ CIJ

JUcGLGJ1JJ1 JJG 211JG mcoq C1J p€ &bbjicq

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pG}rnAi0L JAG bbjX 4}JG IJJG4p0q 0 rnJqGçGLUJJIJGq COGIJJCJGIJc2 J0-JJIJGL b-

JTJ 0LGL 40 2OJAG 0L JJA2 0 UJ0J0]J qG2CLJpJIJ }JG GC01J01JJA2 GdITIJIpLJIIJJJ

' bbLoxrnJG EdflfflP4flm DU1m!C

}JJLG }JJ GLA1CG

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rnJcuJbJo2Gq IJJGUJGL2 1Jq\oL JA0LJ JousL porn (qcbcuqrn 013 JJG JuGLbLGci0IJ)

}JJLJU 0 0fJç2iqGL2 IJ joiicpojq JAOfrJq C}JOO2G 40 G1JJbJ0 2OJJJG 0

113 }JG 0JJ0lAllJ 2GU8G: 113 o\ j(10L çJJG

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I?JGLG &. — I.

= ('— c,) (_) (2e)

= (22)

( c/.c ye:) \\ (2)= (I-) (+)))

((+)))(22)

1

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(2J)

Page 29: qI V&. JAMOITAM - NBER

= + c y + y + cr

BGLCGIJç qGAJçJou 4JJ6 GCOIJOUJA açq 24G AJflG y U 1Jq !AG JJAG

JGL2 obçnnj C}JOJCG2 oj cbJçj JJoJqJu2 courmbçioi uq JOL 2frbbJA

COIJ2fJIJJGL-AOLJCGL FGc!u jo(-) Jo(-)LJq jo(-) qGuOç

Eu&ITk aG cir J2o bb1oxiuçG obçiuj LIJJG2 t01 bG1tGcJ2L couJbGiçJAG

to1 ' =

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GdrnJJpLJrnlJ 1GJJOIJ2JJTb

E}JGLG J2 (x5) nbbGL-ç1Ju.nJL IJJç1JX MG CJJ JO qGLJAG JJIJGLJGq

+0

ATOLGLG22JAG LGbLG2GIJ4çiou 01 4}JG AGC4OL O 24G A&LJpJG2 JSA O UJOçJOJJ

pGççJu jo() tOL t = 1$"EJG CflJ qGLJAG JJL OLJGL AGCçOL—

fo-!u6cLJGq Ednfflp4nW

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coJJ2nmbçJoLJ uq cjJ obcimj cou2rmJbçiou CJJOIC6 oj jJ?bocp€cicj bGLGccJ)

C}JIJG2 0JGL 42111JG ID () 4}JG JAG LuLfccrb y uq (p) b GMGGD GdfIiJJpLJfrm

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(joy+c—) ()

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= u' — y + (c —

LG c11 4JJJ12 G bbLoxauçGq 2

JJJG iTIJCçi0IJ DJbbiIJ JJG GCOUOIJJA 2çG ALIpJG2 flJçO nuGmbJo?uJGIJç

= v + +

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i ffr9rrPoIqm9ruJ 9rB brir{ l3rLto srk riO .bIor{5uor{ eviJiJ5qrrloD

'jd fl3v 81

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:-i ii2sI3 Iqqria iodI

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ir{ ieI eai91orui noitqmu8rloo buia5b vifdeqrrIo3 er{f .e.i

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d rt9vi bn smit ivo ruit8rIo sd Iliw 3i ru9rru1o!qrruerur 9rLt rLt (T.) mod

ruo taudoi s ori iIdmruarq ai Iui rhir . II —

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.rIsq ritwoi b3ru1Ed £ lo cnaix r{ iol b91irupi r{3iriw

btinuIIi ai Mu2e1 id r{i fl1E bnB eq o bio iii 91511 Iooiq (rtoI) oñi 'imo sW ' .wofsd Isbom aqux*i6m ru3JarIo sr1t 1o enoitBIucmiB srlJ d

oc

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(r)) ip 24G1q? w1LJuJb JJJ JJ OIIL WllJt4JOIJ JJ GMGIJ j flJ J5I ! P 201 = T — ' W JPOL !ucomG JJLC (jjj

GJaçJcJçA i GdrwJ OIJ& AJflG OGIJ 1126q 111 4jJG J1çGLçJ1LG M c =

qqJçJoIJ RG C}J0026 - 02 2 GJJCI1JLJC 2G4fiU JIJthJ?JIJ ii JOL 2nbbJ?

AJflG2 OL J \uq c EGLG fl2G !IJ ri }JG CJipLc6q moqj cp uj?q ju

}JG AGLG IJJLJU1b j cjo€ o ou& ie c iu jjmrrçJou2 jjrn bLGAJ0H2

C}JLCçGLiGq p? bcLjGcc couibGç1çJou iç ia ' LG2O1JJG bbLoximJou E}JG1JGAGL

}JG J4GL coLLG2bouqGucG oJq2 x&cçj2 ouj?. ft}JGJJ cJJG ooqe 12

oe bbLoxGJ 'AGLG JPL !°-' E''}JfT2 aubj?iu 2çGqA 24G LO22 iIJçGLG2ç L9çG (joi02 MG =

bLoqncçJAJç? c" ci BLGAJ0Ji2 AJ1TG OL JIIG C}JOO2G \ = (-)o.2

2G \ = (JOJ)o•2 IA}JICJJ coLLG2bouq2 oLOJTJJJA WC}J CGL4JIJ GfTLG2 O 41JG fl GCOuom? ill bo2çiiL bGLJoq MG

MG C}JOO2G bLwGçGL AJHG2 cpç wJ€ JJG moqj 2çq? 2G bLGqJcçJou2

bLLLTGçGL2

o onL uJoqGJ Gcououik j 2çLc p? qi2crr22iu }JG cJJpLcJou o uJoqGje

O qiJjGLGuc LJJCL0GC0IJ0LJJJC LG4G2 JJJJBJ1Gq p? IJHIJJGL O cJJpLGq AGL2!0L12

IPG HJçiWçG OJ 0 JJ12 2GCçJOIJ 18 o coiubilçG uq 2çrrq JJG bLobGLçJG2

:i•

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OI4b cou2nmbçiou uq LO22 pcGq IUAG2çIJJGIJç 111 4JJG JJçJoIJtJ IIJGOUJG CCO[JIJ4

qç pijc c uq s coLLG2boIJq o IJJGU JTLG2

qtjc COAGLiIJ 4JJG &mbj€ bGLJoq jrj: - 1J LAU LOW CIJJBVE

coiomrn JU bo2çIiiL bGLJoq jJ JJ2G dFWLçGLJA 2G2OIJJJ? q1rr2ç€q

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f 4I2çJCØJ bL0b6I4!62

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= 2 pGJJC1JUJLJC AJflG& 4}JOJTJJ JG GXbGLJUJGUç RJJJ JçGLUçJAG 2GççJIJw

m&i1cnb JGAGJ GLIJbJo?JJJGIJç LJq fIUGmbJO?LJJGIJç L4G MG C}J0026 Y = j = J2 irq

2 qGçGLIJJJIJIJ42 O }JG 2çGq? 24G 2}JLG O OIGL}JG c&biçj JJJTIJJGL O LJJJ&

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bLmGçGL JJq G2çJm4JU 1ç2 ALJpJJJ4A RG 11124 UOLIJJJ1G =

CO1JAGU4JOIJUJ 2G4ç1LT I{BC IIJOqGJ2 C!' }JG qJJcnJciGa JJJ WG2HLiIJ çpG

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pqcq LC coLLc2bouq o LC2JOLJ2

1AOLJIIJ bL clinGHIOLJGL 1IJJO LGboL4q CJ( 1iOLJ OL nJilpJJJc? O piq fljj !AOLJ 9 JJG 1JJJIJ LG2OtJ OLliOLJ bGL IAGJC }&13 JILJG GWbJO?JJJGIJc \O. GOOSSC J2 JmO GUILGJ CCOITIJGq OL p?

31DLc ,CJWG GmbJo?IIJGUc i qju€q in q cmbjoXwGuc JuAoJAJu j piu poju o

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o rnJGwbJoIuJJ6uç p€ mrn-

OL }JG bLGAJoJT ALPIG ( O iu our. 2inJJbJG) Jq O C0IJAGIJçJOIJJ G2HLG

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COfJJJ4GLC?CJiCJ bççGLu o Ar.JpJ& a tjj iç Juicuç JoU-udu nbiiLq

pL O /OLJGL2 LGboLç p liOLJCflJ br.ç 0L GCOUOUJJC LG2OU JJJG

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J4GL (ULuGJ? IA}J liioirjq LGL i&or.j irjj-cim€) iu our. qiu2çGq rnj€uj-

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}JG JOL14Jm O UJTL1JGL O T G2HLG COU-

rn bwç& UOU.LiC1TjcuLJ 2GCçOL OHL UJJTLG O GUJBJOAIJJGIJç s coii€boUqe

Or" UJGIJLG i jo o AGLG ]J0ITLJA GLIJIIJ2 o bLoqcicçou ftOLfCGL2

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MOLJCL mpicp i fJJG LIIJ HJ WO4 LOW 4JJ X142JJC Oj AOLJULGGJ JnqJAJ2JpJJJJG2uoç LGJG boJpj b piiJ qiwj nq qiLq poiu !!OLJ(G uJou i1JJ-cwJ OL bn.ç-JuJGJOL jLCG GCfl2G o qJcflc? o TIIgJU )op (qJcoL q OLJL) couq iç qofJJG jiwiççioiJ O 42JJ qç EL J4 qoc JJO ICCOITJJç OL JG ruJGmbJo?cq lIpo qLob oii o

JJJç JuLbLGJOll J 2ITpkcç o JJAIUJPGL oj CAG2 RpJcp /A AJEffi m AoJqpJ IAGiJo oij njj-Jm coo pn itip pon !oq AcJoJJ)LG EOLJCGL2 IAJJO CJJW O pG ROLJUIJ bTI3-cJJJJG OL UoUGCoHoUJJc LG2OU2 (c cp qo uoc iuç2JcJc MLJ rnq\o pcn cu oijjA rq b .c-crnJG ROLJ AoJiuL? bLç fflG /AOLJG121OLJUIJ b -jm JG 32 JJOflL bGL iy) OL GCOJJOUJIC LGOU moj? PGCJTG o

J1JG121JLG O JUAOJJ1UçL bI.c-cJmG ROLJGL2 cOLLG2bouq 4O HOLJGL2 !IjJO CJHJJ O pGMLJpJG uq couIucJo1J nuGuthJoAmGuç Lç€ jii p bLGuç(w2 o) J4CflJGLJ9iJ ( O) JJq fl (Jj o) J40 opAioii COLLGJJOII pçJGn bLGAjon

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u uJou GuJbJo?Gq lloLIcGL2MG IIJ42GLbLGç LGanJciu G2flLG i

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ijJicjJ iwbjciçjA 22ffWG qJ2çLJpIIçJOJJ O

tOL UOIJ GCOIJOUJIC LG2OIJ2 LG R.GJJJç 0J E!1.JTk JJG rnrGwbJo?kGq LG

JJJFJ2 }JG JL2ç 4EO CçGOLIGB LG JUJ1 AGJ}J4 bL IAOLJGL2

(jrjj2) inJGmbJo?Gq (ç) LG m6iJç bbLoxjms ji jpo 21th-

IJOIJJJC LG2OU2 (Eb) b&Lç-çJmG 11OLJCGL2 J0L 11011 GCOIJOUJJC LG&20112 (wb) uq

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32

(J8e) uq K!U b10L uq jçpjo (j

oq y a jj juoiu cp moqj i c&bpJG oJ IucJnu JGç dijççiijA

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