cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

57
flfl CLCU rncjnqni © UO1!CC 2 !AIJ £0 £JJC 2011LCC oj cxi uo o cxcccq uo b1I.9bp wiX pc dnocq irpori cxbjici bcuu!ou bLoiqqcq q © T? PA CP4ObJJCL U Cffl.L0II uq vuqLci y 2UJII4C!C VII LJJ LC2CLACq 2!J°U CCI0U2 WUJJOI2 uq U01 10C Oj £JJ I4OJJ! BIIIfl 0j COUOUJiC KCaCLCJJ V!1J ECOUOUJ!C flC1fl0IJa uq jflpjiC EC0U0UJ1C2 V'J Ob!U!01J2 CxbLcq tc qJo o, i honuqpou i LqnflA cJcuoMJcqcq jp bbci a bm.i o i.cccp bLouiw2 !U 2Acw jjirnucij 2nbbou ow pc jouj uarwic o, v' uq c rqc uq H9UA LffqJcA IJCCC2LI1A LCUCCI £PC Boq O QOACUJOL OL ipG 0 £P qcwj C2CLAC 20C!CtA1 OL fl2qflJ c0uJwcIJj2 jpc A!c2 CXbLC2Cq 9Lc poc o wc ngJoI2 uq qo uo 9T 1J'C EIGLJ KCLAC BOL uq ipc 1401W VUJCL!CU fiIUCL CCPU O £JJC ECOUOUJCP4C JA!CC!CIIIJ 1UJ b0LP ICLJ 2cPoI 10119IV11 JqUUCL fGA cjqc uq 2GUJTUL bwcibi OUIPCL 1CLL? HnUJJIJ OICUU WJPPU1 2bGUCCL gL9'IJC Icop!U fnuJ2qcc ocbp jcA i.jc J.AC o1TJq £0 £119U1C V'J DCOIJ KLCU DAUIJa IJ!CC EPCLJA ELIC EUCU 10UflJ1J cwpi.rq wv oi JOO N C}JflCU2 V1U(I J4VJJOMVr' BflKEVfl Oh ECOMONIC BE2EVKCH f0LjCW bbCL 140 J4 V"q'- V UJN4CJC CPI4ObPCL U CLL0I! MECV1UIOMV1A 2VAII4O HORi INbOK1VL 12 kIBEK RO1flCI14O bVbEK 2EKIE2

Transcript of cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

Page 1: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

flfl CLCU rncjnqni © UO1!CC 2 !AIJ £0 £JJC 2011LCCoj cxi uo o cxcccq uo b1I.9bp wiX pc dnocq irpori cxbjici bcuu!ou bLoiqqcq q© T? PA CP4ObJJCL U Cffl.L0II uq vuqLci y 2UJII4C!C VII LJJ LC2CLACq 2!J°U CCI0U2

WUJJOI2 uq U01 10C Oj £JJ I4OJJ! BIIIfl 0j COUOUJiC KCaCLCJJV!1J ECOUOUJ!C flC1fl0IJa uq jflpjiC EC0U0UJ1C2 V'J Ob!U!01J2 CxbLcq tc qJo o, ihonuqpou i LqnflA cJcuoMJcqcq jp bbci a bm.i o i.cccp bLouiw2 !U2Acw jjirnucij 2nbbou ow pc jouj uarwic o, v' uq c rqc uq H9UA LffqJcAIJCCC2LI1A LCUCCI £PC Boq O QOACUJOL OL ipG 0 £P qcwj C2CLAC20C!CtA1 OL fl2qflJ c0uJwcIJj2 jpc A!c2 CXbLC2Cq 9Lc poc o wc ngJoI2 uq qo uo9T 1J'C EIGLJ KCLAC BOL uq ipc 1401W VUJCL!CU fiIUCL CCPU O £JJC ECOUOUJCP4CJA!CC!CIIIJ 1UJ b0LP ICLJ 2cPoI 10119IV11 JqUUCL fGA cjqc uq 2GUJTUL bwcibiOUIPCL 1CLL? HnUJJIJ OICUU WJPPU1 2bGUCCL gL9'IJC Icop!U fnuJ2qcc ocbp jcA i.jcJ.AC o1TJq £0 £119U1C V'J DCOIJ KLCU DAUIJa IJ!CC EPCLJA ELIC EUCU 10UflJ1J

cwpi.rq wv oiJOO N C}JflCU2 V1U(I

J4VJJOMVr' BflKEVfl Oh ECOMONIC BE2EVKCH

f0LjCW bbCL 140 J4

V"q'- V UJN4CJCCPI4ObPCL U CLL0I!

M�ECV1UIOMV1A 2VAII4OHORi INbOK1VL 12

kIBEK RO1flCI14O bVbEK 2EKIE2

Page 2: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

IQI iqtI nbhoW SIHHM QQ1 '1ut

I TMAT5IOIMI WOH OT4IVA Y5IAMOFUADH5N

TAHTHA

b11 i iidi 1nbrxoq,i ui lo Iqm £ lo diIw di lo noiioil cli i&nii ,W

as 3vr1b tiil W .rndio nsd 1niBflw &no3rn 33BI b1odiod mo uacJ -i,ThJcJ B ni inthfl3flu bns rti1w nw1xJ qidanoilsl3l IB3ii5Iorli rb nisFi3jasuuf3 noitsup

3nbiv3 bail w ;BtBb ujq nju noiUwp3 isdi iml w ix*1 .nivs 10 I3bom bol

isdi noiflidFiiib diLw di 3is1urni 3w 11snFI .nivs visnoiiu&iq ni bIodwod IsfIi

3W .quo iniBrI3anu-1wo1 311i a vithsflnu ms rft bsd thlod3zuod 115 Ii !isv3lq bluow

(lnBn3onu 01 3!dsludrrns i 1qrna wo ni thIsw lo 1nn3q ô bas Q€ nwld Isril bail

.quo1 o1B 1siin51311ib

biwms A w3ibnA IIoiisD .U l3dqolthcID 53Iff1OIIOH lo in3mflsq3a 08 qo12 lisM

fisH i11313AooS! ô01ô lin3bI 3d1 lo iocn3voD lo bisofi 33!1oD ciiuomtisU m31 3v135L

l1 -V0 HM l3vonsH WM ii2 D bas rii0 5I3M bns I0 DU noinid2sW

Page 3: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

noii3ubothII .1

irfii lo noirioqoiq oth oaicnl3i3b 01 b31qmofl OvMl qq Jn5I !Iv3 'IIs5rod3 I3inuflo1nU .rtiv isnoiiuiq oi 3IcJEludi-niE diInw bIo113uorf io

Iqmi 03 irfuo± nd 3vErl briE 3v1o2 01 iIu3fflib thv isnoi1u1iq lo 13bom 31diIrn1q

3W3E13311 3rIT '.di1w brie 'JniEflrIu noowlod qir1noi1E1o1 o1dEmu1o 11zhiqmo o1qcni on

3111 s r1iugni1ib 111w ow rloiclw io1E1i owl lo ono IqobE o1 bobnoi 3101513(11 r1

..o) rb&uiqqE 1Ei13ioor11 orli niwoI1o1 213qE .3I13Eo1qqE ls3fliqmo 3111 bn 1E3i151o3r11

1ri1oioor11 w1uil1Eq £ 1li omu (H f1flo133n3r1 ;1QQ1 obIoS briE ionnbI bidduI{

orli d boilqmi r11Iow (1Enoi1us3o1q lo 1nuorn orli o1E1u3IE bnE lsrio i nive lo lobom

10 gnivie briE 1niE11onu noowiod qir(noi1EL51 Ihiqmo 'nz niiimi1o Juorliiw 1obom

3iEmi13 (QQI oo1hoT briE jI!oqqEl oiuD ..o) 5iLj1si311 IE3hiqmo orli ni 213qs .(111E3w

ozoriw alobom nivz iEnoiiuE331q oIdizuEIqmi 1thi151o3r11 ozu Iud qirIznoiiEIol IE3hiqmo LIE

z ovioz flE) thifiw noizzolqxo 1E3i1lEnE rrriol-bozol3 £ 3iE13n3 01 '1i!idE ior1i zi oufliv loirb

noi3s3flioqz 3r113m0n033 LIE

zolEmilzo orli z13qsq IE)i151oof1l oili nomA .wzfiozfiO3 bovoirl3E asfi rbEolqqE ir11i&4

V.0 E 311111 a ff011 ogriEl zovilom s(1EnoiiuE31q 03 o1dsiudhn flilEow lo noilloqolq ofli lo

13E novi £ nirljiw nova .oiom io (H) lnooloq 0 01 (.fQQ1 jlIim2 briE llozzinN) lno3Ioq

mo11 oni 11su13E zolRmilzo H 3r11--eo3iof13 n1ofns1Eq rioqu 1i&oi zbnoqob owzn orb

ajidhixo noii3rniI iithu 213LflU2ffO3 3(11 cbkdw iii a1bom ,muminim £ 1t flB3ff 3w "3IdiauElq llijoioodi" .1(1101 ASIAU 3(13 1o ai ik11iu IEID 23ff3mUIfi iol (cli QQI) IIsclrni)I .(ASIAU) noiaI3vA Aai$1 3iuloadA nieiU

3v1361351 imJario) 3(11 to ak noibnul '1i1iflJ 3(11 313(1W 31(0 21 aasb akift iii 131)0w 311b3q2 bav Inommoo iaom 3dT .rniol (ASISID) tioiai3vA )12151

ml WIsw bIoff3wod oi 1bom 113th cl b31m13a dJL&w to iauoms 31m xgi 11 3IBfflO ob SH .131)0w 3(11 to 3a3 10 n011sm1123 Is31J2IJEI2 JRm1dI tm 103231q 10ff ob (3di 111(1 .U 3111

.nnol (A5IAD) noial3vA 1ai5I 3luLoadA inElaffoD uli lo ai Ox11Ju JELIJ OffluazE 1I1n3n3g aqsq IEzthiqlfl3 3(1T1

.3kliaIJElqmi 21 )kliJU A5LAD JEIIJ aJn3muIs 101 Q1) flOIE3U to (clOQQ1) ffcfmkA JI noii ff1 flOi22LJaib 1110 33

Page 4: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

oeiuD :bEold 11E1imi i ni 1i iqzq 1hiqmo nomA .1n3xI3q OV o niq O

b1o1i32uod lo in3Xx3q xo1 inuo3 riivi 16noiiu&31q" iBrli 31i 3e3ih3T bilE i113qqE1

i a hi 2gaivIa lo 1n33q O nsdi iom" i&li 2rnisI3 (IQQI) inonBbG 311(1w "diiow 13(1

",lth 3ffl03fl1 31u1L11 I2niEgl3 fIOlflJE33lq

nti nu1Emi1o 1tE3hiqm3 'd 311flzii1 niixo 3113 noqu avoiqmi 2irlT

Tb l3bom 3Jdi2ulllq '11J13i1o3th £ moil b3vh3b 2i noil iIb3q2 eor1w l3bom rI13ffl0fI033

isdi ougm (QQI QQ1) IloiisD bns (IQQI) no13U i1i33qa 3d oT .gthv (1r1o1iuE331q

bbnE12 r1i lo noiv £ 'd b3luiqs3 113w 51.C loivErl3cI niv IEno2l3q 1o 231u1E3I irIfloqmi

•Ioivsd3cf rtiv bo12-I311uc1" ni zl3mu2no3 rbirlw ni l3bom noiiimiiqo 3imsrnb

lo iih3iirb 3(10 iJSrfl 2wofi2 (QI QQI) 11oniI) .riiiT1i1 rthhow 113th lo l2om i3vO

3111 bilE 0i1E1 3mog1i-o1-r1l1E3w 11E1 £ ev3ifk 03 rnii Iliw 'r11 JEEIJ 2i

.'ir11Efl33r1IJ 3LT103fl1 lo 3313b 3111 lo nOii3rwI 13 11Eq th i (1l1S3w 13iBl 3t11 IC) 3X12

r133d r1 2l3bom 3ldiauElq 1IE3il31o3ff1 lo noiisrni1a IB3hiqm3 01 1zido 3111 lo 3110

lo 3313b 3(11 3i1Emmu2 01 3i32i11312 1n3i31fl112 31rIi2 0(1 21 313(11 2I3bOffl 323± ni 1&11

31u131rL12 3111(13 3(11 noqu zbn3q3b 101V&13d thrniiqo 31qknhq 111 .3)BTb 213mu2rIo) 1r1LEt133flu

3fflE2 3111 lidirlx3 rkidw 2noiludhi2ib owl 1olqrrtExo iol if1i 02 noi3udi-U2ib 311103111 3111 lo

ion gIfl 3± no gnibrtoqob 10ivEd3d nivs inoioThb oliup 331113111 1r1irri 33111311EV bilE niom

01 21 ioqq 21(11 lo 2noiiudilino3 onli lo onO .2130r12 omo3ni 10 2noiludi-1121b orIi lo 2inomom

313111 fl1VE2 lo lobom 13o12-ioITbud £ ol nibiox ovsdod 2bIorlowoll Ii o3i13Eiq (Ii 1E± wonl2

Ismiiqo onli gnithfimmu2 lo doj boos ii ob id1 'inIEtIo3nu lo 231112133111 owl 121331 113 3113

.33131 Ithu13s 2blorlO2uod 113113 320± 3)111 2noiludhi2ib OfflO3flI 01 32fl0231 111VE2 (113n011uE3o1q

llBdmi){ d bovhob iniEfl33rIu lo 31112133(11 I133133103f1i oIqmI2 13 110 bo2Ed i oodi lo ottO

Page 5: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3

fMcufA-JiAG AcL2 o pA crnq (T8Y uqwo (iooY iiq DL9C iuq oqi!ur (jiy

jflJ0fTjJ IJJG broucuu 1JJG0LGfTCJ MOLJC OU bwccujoirnLA 2AiU M12 qouc OAGL

r f1LAGA uq CLI!dHG O JJ6 fl6LøfflL6

GXI2T1J I!GLnLG

BG.0LC bLGCIJfIU 01K OMU LC2fIJf2 MC CIU MUJJ UJOLC qcicq qcnrou O fpC

MGJf wipripjc fO JUCOUJC I1UCGLfIUfA i LCfCL f JO/AOL qccrjc 0J IJJC UCOWG qifupnfl0u

bGLcGu uq AGLA jiclnrq ci poJqiu pA bcLccu )G 10 20M pU 1}JG TLCI1OIJ 0J

ujbjc pA Oflf bcLccuf IJGf MOLfJJ GXCJ11IAG 0 1J0f12U ffuq fl2UO2 CdflTfA pA

bLcqicfcq nuccLWufA for. ciA poncpojq u pc wbjc MOflJq LG11CC f0WJ UCt M0Lf Ill 01K

cou2iqoLpou2 2Gff!1J rpc nucGLfIufA oj CACLA poncpojq u on wbjc fO tJJC UJffJJGf

bo2oq Tu f}JG fifJG 0 fjJG bbcL j/c nJq LJJ1 p2rLCfru L0W GIJGLJ Gdfl!J!PUIIW

J1J IJJG IUJ GCfI0U o JJG bbcL /AG nc 01K cwbiucj c2f!uJfG fO UMGL fJJG dncrou

LCJfiouprb GfPAGCU JJ fG2fGq WG2flLG 0J MGJfJJ uq 0f UJG2(1LG2 oj riucci.ruA

G1MCGU jo MGJfJJ iuq 01K WGS2flLG o nuccLWTufA jic uq i uc1uIULfIWGUWJ M1LrrpJG2 fO COLLGC( 0L WCff1ILGWCIJf CLL0L MG GfJUJfG fJJG GWb!4CJ LGJf!0U2JJib

poncpojq w 01K bID rwbjc MG CJcc1JfG fJJC Ebb uq FAVL{I'A uq fGU fl2JJ

COGWCJGUf JU fJJG LGJ(J0U2JJJb Gf/AGGU MC&Jf uq nucci.wiuA- io pe 2bccrpc 0L CCJJ

T.uJcq !fP fJJ2 2bGCiJCf0U MG IJGXf UJLIJ fO cwbqcj G1!IJJfT0U 0J tJJC jobC

uouJJJrscq AG120U 0 fJJC Ebb OL r'AVJ5FK

woqcj bLCqiet c LonpJA JrUCL LcJfroup!b GfMGGU fG jo o WLCf MGJfp mq C!fPGL

fJJC J0 0J fJJC ALWJJCC 0 fJJC jo oj iucouic (FAVgFA) M0 2JJOM f}JIf IJJG pnGL-2focJc

fG EdrIIATJGIJf bLGCflf0UA bLGWflW (Ebb) fIJO 0fGL 2 fU fpC0i frcJ WC2flLC

Page 6: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

w non3mon3rlq inErloqmi IIr3hqmo ni i thv (InoxiuE31q l3fli3dw lo noi13up 3(11

orLi isdi !3viif3n1up b3is11nom3b ir !iiior1i in31 iom Iiifw b3iIn 'Iou3I

bn 3imono33oEm lo '13hsv £ 3vIo?31 idim 3viJom gthvi smnO!1us351q lo 33fl3251

.r1iIiow blorbwoi1 lo noiiudhisib 3(11 bn 1oivd3d noilqmu2clo3 iuod 23Lxsuq 3imofIo33ol3im

23Luq or11 lo rioiiu1oi iio 1i bivoiq Ioiv&13d iinoiflJE1q th3dw gfliftiflfl3l3U

Iliw 3W .gnivz '(1Enoi1u&31q 10 33nnoqmi 3viis1iJmIip 3r11 nif1i1di23 oqu bn3q3b

.511J1E131i1 hhiqm3 d1 ndi bru 31u1E13311 Isii31o3th d1 iaifl w3ib

10 31s31E iol I3bom i dsoiqqs 1E3i131o3r11 3(13 oIqm3 JEfLI 13qq 1&iqi 3(11 iii

lo 13v31 1i bru3 b3sh3rn1Eq i viiom 1snoiiu1rnq £ 23bu13th isrIi niv thubivibrii

bn lnEl-loqmx i niv '(thftoL1u331q floifiw Iii 2noi1Eth3i3muq 3bnu b3isIumi i fIIIB3W

nfl gni11o 'c1 1113n3g) liwfloqminu i IIIV vjnoi1ufl1q dzir(w ni noiiflsh3i3mBiiq l3fbo

noifloq orli z b313Iq1ni i rU1sw ni 3n3I3Thb ni31ui 311T .(o13 01 lol3rruslBq 'iniflt133rIu

1I3i131o3ff1 3(11 bo1qm 3vEd isrIl ioqsq 3fLT .r1iv (1Enoxiuz)31q 01 3IcJnJdnn13 filifloW lo

iuo oT .2J1u3 lo 13nEv b3r1o1 3vJd bnE EI3bom lo '13flEV bu 3vflr1 rbEo1qq

£ 3W odw (88Q1) 13nnb1 ai cl3Ernqqs 1B3r131o3fI3 3(11 lo 31qmx3 i23ih3 3(11 3b3IworD1

.1i1i1u A515I illiw imunoo iol noilqmu2no3 lo I3bom 3133 old oi noiismixolqqE io1T

ô iol 21nuo3z niv 'fioi1u&3iq ouIv lolofnBiZq bornoloiq ir1 ibnu isrlJ bni1 oH

OrnO3fli lflonBfffIoq £ ol noiluIo2 x11n 3(11 232t1 (1Q1) olollcdl3D .duIsow h1o1 lo 1f133loq

lo Iv1 (111w 1n31812no3 3i 21313m1flq o1dnoasof isrD 3b1J13no3 01 iih1u A5IAD (111w lobom

O 1o ni 1nir133nu niniio biswoi obu1xnz vnoi1uioiq moil niisniho flilfiow

bnB oIssuq imonoornm io1 (tQQ1) bI bits ,13nnbf bisdduH bns QQ1) llon (OQI) oi[L&1sD bIS brm ,inbf bi&fduH birn (QQ1) QQ1) biwm bliB flonD QI) lloniD (dEOQI) llBdfaDl

.23[ssuq 3im0fl033013Uft io1 (QQ1)

Page 7: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

i 1&li bml (1QQI) ob1S bnE i3nnbI ,bi&1duH ".diIE3w 2.U in bvido 3(11 10 1f13313q

lo J3bom Io 31i1 bo1idiI& bns b3i1i33q2 iI31iods13 i3V bmi ,bo3si1ir1qo2 iom li2.Ev

1ttr1 bnuois oliEl 3mo3n1-ol-r1iIE3w 31E5Igg n 13ib31q iniBi1o3nu Iuorliiw rIoiiqmuno3

thbbE 3uthv io13mrnq boiibiq iili i3brw 1Ed3 Jud 2.U 3(11 (II olsi IE1J13i 3(13 2E 3IJ3I

32o13 ol oi1x 3mo3ru-ol-fliIE3w 31E 1E b3i3ibsIq 13bom 3111 313313fl1 1nIfl33nu 3fflO3fll

.Oi1E1 I1Ji3E 3(11 ol

lo i11o Ithm2 bnuI IIiiq3 13bom mrJncIi!iup3 I1non3 1133113103(11 ,321313no3 flu

01 b3flibocn I3bom rliwoig b113brIEi av1o (.1Q1) iiiiA .3thvs iBnoi1u13331q

a3u113v l3lOmSlEq 3ldiwEIq 11szthiqm3 iol 313th wor1 brIE flivS2 1(IEnouuE33lq 3lEloqlo3ni

3f11 iii 3E313ffl lnioq 3E1n3313q n&li 2231 s lol 23riuox 1th 3mo3ni 3ijE13r1s2oibt b3w2111nu

01 2)130(12 iii 33n312i213q bnJ3 1i1idEhEv r1ir1 '13fl3i3111u2 iol i&1i Jud o1i niv 3JE31gE

cliiw I3bom 3111 (11 ff13111 13r1ir1 2lnioq 3131n3313q 1I-V 3d (1133 31131 niv 31135IE 3111 3mo3fl1

131fEm2 f13v3 its 2brliI (4QQ1) dJim bus 113am)! d iqsq 1(13351 A 1rIi13fl33nu 3m03fl1 on

3113313q V.0 Irio d b3ac313n1 ai (131133w 33E51E 13borr1 rrwhdiliup3 th13n3 113(11 11 :133113

.)IarI 3(1103(11 3115131P(2Olbi moil niths niva l13noiius331q d 11thff133adua ism al3bom muhdiliup3 Is13fI3 orb r1w arioasoi Isiovoa s's oir1T

iail1 .ablorloauorl Isubivibrii d iii bogsno nivsa 1Enoi1us3O1q lo 1(1110(1113 orli OlErIIiieolObnu

no sisb niau 1nisi133nu omorn lo siuasom iir11 31131(111133 alobom muiidiliupo Isino 3(1102

ilodi flu Jriisfl33nhJ 10 E331u0a 3jgIEq3 351113 10 J3113 3111 I3bif1O3 (llrnii3E b1 bw ,iirnb1 1yisdduH 3mo3ffi 1011111 istlJ bail t11 i3v3woH .(3111 lo rJin31) i11sflom has sxu1ibn3qx3 3ts3 lE3th3m 3mo3ni iodsl :aiqsq

.infinoqmk iom 3di 'sI d i inisflnu

3on3siq di iii to) iaisflnu 3m03111 lo snds 3(11 ff131131 ff1V11 3111 j3bOm fflUrIcJiIIup3 11113ff3g isss(1A nI ni aoesizni oi bnoq3no3 33111 niv 3113 ff1 ss3tni 3311102(111 tb wrF Jnsnq iuods i (snstu2ni !IuI lo

(1giil &It ni inq to s d3um s bits 1s3iq1 3111 Di 3113313q 1 IJo(1s 10 1111111 siom onlo nivi 33n3321213q bas '3i1id13risv

Page 8: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

i 1th 13v31-bIodo2uoll Mi1Dn2oib! ii1i 1o3f1i 3111 no 3mo3ni I&1o213q 3i31gB

13±o bnI3 (1Q1) 3n1f13oD d nworl2 1uH .213*tEm IE1iq 133h3q ni 31di1ki3vib

3inqoqq di o b3i1i213vib '!Iu1 ion iaI i io b&1i21ovib ion 21 12h J3v3l-bIo11uorl

31J3 rbirlw -- 2blocbaor1 Isubivibni 01 '1qqs Ififli 320(11 is inist133nu 3rrzo3ni lo aiusm

.3(1103111 31531E iol 320111 rir1i 131531g rbum

01 as 'sw £ r13u2 ni b3iSldilS3 '1li3nii1o iw aI3bom muhdifiiJp3 lE13n 1i bno3

vlJ3noiJus3Olq ici bola 1fihiq13 2U 3111 11315m ol dguon3 i1 13o12 Isiiq& z o3ubni

llsma li-isaa3n 21 i11 3rb a13bom rbia 01 bobbs ei inis1133nu omo3ni 11311W .fIiV52

21 ii :3aoqThq Isub £ V132 won 21102531 1sno11IJE331qnon lol b3is1umu3s dhIS3w 3111 aus3d

ai ii b3b33n Ii lud a1so nuf1iooma-noi1qmuano3 vn3up3i1-wo1 3v3irbs 01 '1hsmhq bloil

311211551 310ffl A .awsib omo3ni bsd lo in3v3 3111 111 nonqrrnJarlo3 331151111 01 31d5115v5

.'1fsi1irii gnivsa io1 aviiom snoi1uE3s1q 1sioqio3th bluow noiisldils3

3111 1o a3lsrniia3 wo1 b13i' sm al3bom muhdiliup3 1rn3n 3111 noassx biirIi A

I&1I 133113 3(11 ffuo1f11 21 13v31 blorI3auocl 3111 is nivsa (1Snoius35Iq lo 33nnoqmi

lo Inuoms ogisl £ 3351 abIorI32uod II .Otsi 12513111! 3111 no 26ff n1vs2 1sfIoi1LS331q

ior1ir1 311T .ath ?13o12 Isiiqs3 31s1n 3111 ,Isb 1si £ 3V52 11u231 £ 25 bns \(inisfl33nu

idl aa1 3V52 01 ab1odouod a33ubnI c1313f1l bns oisi 12313111! Issi 3111 232251q3b boia 1511q53

uo d b3luiqs3 Ion 3(10 bris ,133113 muhdiliup3 1S13n3 31(11 £ 2! iiff .21102531 3I3'3-31i1

'h3qo1q ii rnaasibbs 32us33d s13is1 thvsa no 'inisi133nu lo 133113 3r11 lo anoiislumia

Is13n3 lslu3iilsq £ ol iimmo3 01 bris axa1sn 3111 bn3ix3 '1issz 03 au 3liup3l bluow

noii3ubolq 3is31s 3111 a3ias1 luods anoilqmuaas lo 132 lsIu3iilsq £ bns l3bom muhdiliup3

lo 511113(1112 31mof1033o135m bns 3Imono33ol3im 3111 n33wiod qicfanoiisl3l or!) .bns noii3nu1

Page 9: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3r11 I3iEmu11u i± o!obouI13m iuo lo rioqqu iii 3on w IInoiiibbA V.'1flitI3flu

'1no J1u23I muFidiliup3 IEiru3q f1j mcnI illiiniedu2 13111b b1uor1 JIu31 muildiliup3 fsI3n3

IEHI i 31uiJ1ofl1 3(11 lo grixbE5I mo ;3WI 21 thv lo '1ii12EIo 125131(11 3± ii3th 1ci1xo 3r11 01

3vi1i2oq n3v3 i griivi lo 'iii1Io 1eoi1ni 3(11 isrli 3n3biv3 !n3hiqm3 biIo2 311111 21 313(11

i Ii isuli 3)n3b1v3 on 11siiiv bni

n33d and niv -Innoi1u331q lo obuiinsm di ninicrn313b 01 r13o1qq 1E)rnqm3 3(11

01 21 d3fo1qq In3hiqm3 3111 lo bodl3m 3dT .oiqq 1BZ115103111 3± an 3vi2uk)no)r1i an

3(11 3211 01 (13(11 bnJ3 nivi '(1snoi1uE)31q iol 2woIIB 1&li I3bom i lo 21313rnE1sq 3(11 31sm1123

3(11 lo 23ffl5I1X3 31IT .'1n1st133flu ol 3ub rliIs3w 10 noi1o11 3(11 133o1q 01 231srru123 rn11u2si

3231F13T brie i113qqEI o2iuD bilE (IQQI) inonEbisU 'd b3iqu3o SIE 231Em1123 1E)rI1qm3

izdi 2worl2 bnl$ 2bIorl32uoñ )I.U 10 fIO1i32-22013 £ 2OfUfflEX3 (1Q1) irIonEb1U .(QQ1)

3111 01 b31z13'I I3v11E3n 21 aquo '112ubni bnB 1EnoiJEqu3o oi rioi1qrrwwo 3E13VE

(iEnoiluE3oiq i&11 bni1 d noiluboi1ni 3111 fI b3lorl aA .3mo3nI lo ODIIJ3flJ3V quoInni

3211 (QQ1) 323XXih3T bnE i1I3qqEt o2iuD .nivz ils lo 1n3YI3q Oô 13V0 io1 ainuoxs gnivs

b3133qx3 ff11 lloq3l 213ffl112ft03 (13111W fli ablOfIO2UOfl (15111111 Tb l3anlsb 1snoi13o2-ano B

13w01 '11srninm 1no 21 noilqmu2no3 111111 bnil bilE iso 1x3n 3(11 iol 31(103(11 lo rioiiiidrilaib

Ixon lo 33flEIEV 3v11331du2 131Esf s Hiiw 213i112il03 o1 1gir1 11di12 1no r1i1sw bns

.31di11311 21 fliVE2 (IEf1011uE331q 1&li 3b1313f103 '3(1T .3rno3ni 81E3'

owl lo 1111231 3(11 3d sm 231b1112 1113fl!qm3 3(11 lo enoll3xb3lq 3± ilk 'thsq2ib 3flT

iiorli 3vrI3b 01 LIEb lo 163 31ffl2 £ 1rio (10 131 diod iaii1 .noiiEJrI3m3Iqmi ni 2m3Idolq

I11noq iol Ibom 31ffl0fl033 3thqoiqqs 3d3 no tbin3arn lo 311132 305r1U3 3th o vw s ioI (1QQI) sth3o 3 3viJsl3qo n viiom nnoiiuniq bnn 3bp-31i1 iliod riuIw ioivfirbd gniv

.(88Q1) 111111 31qmsx io1

V

Page 10: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

lo noi2l3q2ib I oii3-o13 Li 2U (IQQI) inonEblEU .Vrihi-izcw 3mo3ni lo 251U2E3ffl

ioI .'lniiinij lo 5IU3ffl 2111 quoi s(Ii2ubni io noiiIqu3o in5I3llib niHliw mooni

lo 2bnbl ln3l3uIib 22013B lOIB3lg 21 no!213q21b 3moxli noii2-ao13 lo 331b rli Ii 3ni2ni

&1 01 b3rrumaB aihow iria norD ,i31odnI crn1 1(151311th ao ff&li ihow ima

Iiwmj2 bnE llom3D UI21 3111 mon moni no isb I3nq ni2U .1rnEflo3nu 31n03fli i315I

omozrni quoigsiirli inonBbmU nw13d 3vii3fI ItBui3s 21 r1oriJ3I5no 3111 i&Ii worl2 (Q1)

risiiv 3d1 inuItI33nu lo 51U3ffl 1shqo1qqE 'IIi131o3rli iom i bns iirm noi2l3q2ib

.3mo3ni in3nBml3q ol akork lo

bIa siw 2bIorI32uod cloirlw Hi 'VIu2 E u (Q1) 3oih3T bni iII3qq1 o2iUO

uIi 13v3woH lx3n 3c11 lii 3mo3ffl b1qxo ii3rli lo noiludi-u2ib 3111 iuodi 'I1i3i1qx3

3mil3liI lo snEi-Iv 3th 21 I3bom 113± ru s1nuith33nu lo 31U213ffl hqo1qqs Iii51o3f1i

omorni 3111 iuod 2noiiqmu22s no1i .3moni '.i& ixri lo 331ll3fiV 3f11 1011 3fflO)1Ii

.(b3i131 1isni1 io) Iz3iln3bi 3d o3 qono owl 3111 iol 13b1o iii bsiiupsi 31 2233O1

rli bniuobnu I1u1 Ion bib 2in3bnoq2ol lo noii3ElI IEiinEi2cIu2 lzrt3 ifob i Ii vjlinoiiibbA

iol 2rIoiisi3oqx3 lnioq rhiw b3bnoq23l 2blorl3auod trnm rIl2ni iol) b31a 2fIoil?3LJp

Iqmi m 211u231 323r1T .(ini1133nu lo 331g3b 3ffl02 ol 133IdUe FuI3 ozs 113111w 23LdsnRv

3± d bsuulqE3 113w Ion 513w lEdi 2(11131 ru Vnisr133nu fliodE IIIIIII 1qmi2 3Iqo3q 1&li

.3v1ua 3111 HI boI 2fl0i123Up

thod ni bo1Emu123 2noi1up3 111 lErfi 21 m3ldolq 2uon32 oiom IIBi1n31oq bnE bno332 A

213(11112(103 rl3irLw Hi 2I3bom mon b3vh3b StE 323i113T briE i1J3qqEL 02iUD bnE inonEblsU

lo 12011 £ 3vBrI 2Iobom 113112 .2fl0i1311111 '1ihirj (A5IAD) flOi2l3VA 12i51 3lLJIo2dA 1r11312no) 3VEII

{231J1Ev l3i3mElEq 3Idi2usIq lobrIu isr1i ruoil3ibslq 3111 gnibuIni 23ir13qo1q 3IdEli2obnu

8

Page 11: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

lo 1ilidi2uLqmi 3r11 iomidnu .2b1ofbuod nuo iol 3viin 3d 111w noiiqmu2no3

A$IAD :31qmx3 olqmie diiw bo1iieu11i 3d n ini2no3 rioiiv 1th oluIo2dE nib1orL

f1i 1ix3 ni 1i bluow it iiL1ob noillim i gnimu2no3 fl213 £ IEHJ 213ib3lq ii1i1u

nivir1 lo nirb 3n3313q O 01 1E3 £ OOOO1 nimu2no fioi3q i a w 3f11E2

noi213vi A2i1 3iu1o2d ii1i aiua noiiiiflni mO .mE ixri OOO d b33ub31 noilqmlJ2no3

'lfifIoi1uE31q 2231 flu oggn 13li1 111w 13mu2n03 mi1111E3w 3± 32uEzd nk3m3b 3d bIuort2

.jnuom isliob nvi £ lo ?Ith £ i2rILE gnivB2

Alow9mfrl1 Jiii91orIT .ffl i% %uo') s\TV

£ 21 *10w th3fliqm3 muo lo 2iaBd 3(11 2rrrlol iBfll fl!VE2 (If3fl0u1uS35Iq lo I3bOfIt 3(11'

.(QQ1 QQ1) 11omD bflE (IQQI) nOIE3U 'ct b3qol3v3b 213b0m '5bo12-13Th1d" 3(11 1 inthmv

2bIod32uocf rl3iflw ni *10W3ITI11 noJEimJqo 1moqm3i13inx bubru £ o1qm3 213b0ffl 323f!T

bni 3mo3ni mol 223301 3i12&1Z012 £ fl3V1 luIilhJ 5IUILJI b3lnuo32ib b3133qx3 3SiffliXSffl

(EOQQI) 2tlthdmi)1 ni 1ic dod 31J 213fflU2f10) lEfli 3fflhJ22 213b0ffl oriT .1f1I112n03 i3bUd

OfflO3ffl Ii ,i&1I 32fl32 3± ill bnfi 3viiom gniv2 '(IEnouluE33lq £ nivr1 lo 32fl32

ln3TIu3 33nIn11 01 3O3ffl 3liuJul 12niEs wonod ol 1I2iw bluow scli niflo3 1i33113q 33W

3iE13fl3 fl3 2n0u1qmu22 owl 323± 1fliE1mo3n1J 3mo3ni lo 33(I3231 3± ill °'.nouiqmuano3

(QQ1) HonED .OIJEI 3ffl03fl1-01-fIIIE3W 131J £ 3VEfI Iliw 213ff1U2fl03 1&li noi1i1qmi 3(11

no £1Jb 3xmono33om3Em lo 23112fl313f13 lo i3nEV £ fiuiw 1n312!2fl0 2! I3bom 21(11 is± 23UE

.iiliiu A5IAD 1o iIm b3li13b 310ffl zol 1oifloo1 iii bib nuo th LIJIW .on3ilo1q 3(rth lo 31E1 (3viJkoq ff3V3 mo) did s 3vu1 03 13iU2fl03 uupoi Ion ob ith Ic!i 3ioVl°'

lo niInuoo2th on diiw flOV3 noiiibno3 "3ffiIEqmi' 3f11 Ithn fIS3 a13mLInO3 Mwcng 3mo3ni bi3qx3 oviuioq .lCJjJjju uJu1

Page 12: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

bthl (QQ!) biwm2 brie lloriD bn (Q1 I) 1IoniD bns rriv ba noi1qmurIo

.Eib 3imonooiim niw !3bom 3f11 iol tIOqqiTh

viibiupiI oqmi 3ir1 b5x3bino3 !3bom 13o1-111ud d1 lo nokl3v 1Iu3iflq orlT

noii3v iii bniido 3d n 2i1u3i i1imi rtuorf11E (1Qf) ctoiU ru z JJ3o1ib 2inu1no

ruiwo11o1 3r13 3v1o2 01 b3mIJs i I3fflU1tO3 3(11 113fli33q ".iruiu1no3 iibiupi1 luo(1liw

m3ldolq

7.-i xam () 7.a

- = +! . (1)

%V O�

= 51 i boh3q m Iibn3q iol 31d11iEvE iuooi 1&kr1q lo bo1 3(11 1 W + ,Y = ,X 3i3rlw

i Y (ii inuooib (1j i ) lOizEI irnjo3aib 3(11 i (÷1)\1 = fli 1i1ni oi 3r11 i (i+1)

3r11 lo 3mo)rIi odE1 1n3rIrn3q th 1 4 boh3q th bIorI3worl 3(11 lo 3O3ffl lodEl lsJol 3(11

bni (e13or1 Ioji2rIE1j Oil 313W 513r11 Ii b3ni 3d bluow ir1i 3ffl03 3111 2X i&1i) bIorl3wod

3111 lo i floiJriu1 iiIiiu 3rlT .1 boFI3q flu 303fll 01 ?13o112 (1o1irIs11 3vi1J3i1qiiIum 3111 i 3V

3W .noiiv 1th 3vi1131 lo ifl3ioi1l3o 3111 i q 31dw (q-f)\"k = (3)u :ririol A5151D

d1 moil bo1Iu3th3 fuozi3nu1 noiiLJdhi2ib 1&thiqm3 u 111w bn .b.i.i 1V 3111 flr1i 3U2

hqoxqqi ns 3ni1 n,no lo Iaj flu1qmi2 ii owsd 313d iffiu1ffO3 3ibiupi1 30fffl 01 ooth 3W" noiJudFrj2ib 3th Io iimiJ 13n-uA mo lo WQ(! noiu3aib uLi ;A3oda moni odi ioI noii3nu1 noiiudrOib

.flOii3fIUl

01

Page 13: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

V orb lo rioiiudilJ2ib orb riiio 01 s1b 3ffl0)f1i (1X?'k

Jiliw lobom 2irb ni lomu2no3 orb rrLi 2331nJ1sIJ rtoi1rw1 1i1iiu AM5ID lo oiorb iuO

rbgrIoii2 orb oxobrii q nokiov ?Ith OvilElol lo ifl3i3i11Oo) orb ;gthv lscIoiiu31q ni 3grio

1iioioorIi lo noilinilob uo f12iJ o21 lobom oriT .onobiriq bn noi2iovs 1th rbod lo

nimu22E lo oriT .nokiov 1th oluIo2dE nkoob nirididxo d 1iIidi2uRIq

noi1qmhJ2no 10 Iv1 orb iol fl011U102 I iilsns mio1-boob on ei oiorb iEth 21 iiIiiu A$151D

Ioborri orb ovIo2 lwm oioloiorli oW .'1niEflonu lo noiiorwl 2E fliVf32 10 f1iI133W

.'IIJ33fl3ffIUfI

orb iiluiu A5I51D illiw lobom orb ni wor12 (QI QQI) lEorIED bns (I QQI) no1oCJ aA

or noriqmu2no3 lo oi11 orb rioowiod qi noilsiol £ nolthw od n olin noirqmu2rIo3 Imiiqo

owoI II .1\X omoni inoru$mloq or X rb1ow oi lo oilEl orb bnl3 I\D omo3ni iflOrIm13q

nom 2irb omoni rn3nrrn3q d boithmxori fl&porriuoo 32I ioqqu orb olonob 23Idi1v oe3

£ 21 oiii nonqmu2no Imiiqo oth--(x) a noflhw od n olin noi1qmu2no Imi1qo orb i&b

.ooiq £ iol (IQ1) noiEoU 302) 0213 nirbori brIE oiii1 rllIEow aoi orb lo floil3rIul

noisoU brIE (Q(I) honED ni bodh32ob oi ii rnvIo2 10 borliom orb briE loborn ouT

2nonqmu22E 3rIiornElsq wo 1o woiviovo flE 03 513r1 r1oi22u321b orb orIiIno3 lliw OW o2 (IQQ1)

'(IE22o)3n lqinhq ouT .lobom 2idi Iii 210fflU2fl03 lo loivErlod orb lo noi3qrI)zob bEold £ bnz

jIIEtIO3 013W 0ffl031Ii ii 1EH1 21 lOiVEdod niv bo12-lollud ni3iorio iol noilibrio3

onnu1 03 iobio ru orriorui oiuiul 32niE woiiod ol rl2iw bliow a3o2 on rliiw aomurio

0) in3noqmo3 io1inil 113w ifI3nBfin3q i 513th Ii eJ1ui luo oI onupeno3 oil u3aib o1iu OW' .aborie 311103111

= (3) u(3) = (o)A5IA :'d novig i 3 jovol ffoiiqmuano3 'ns J nokiov kh oitilo&ls lo I i3iflooz oi1T' i f1Oi1OvE 1th o3u1odE JEil gniwoth O> 3\q- = (A51A :ab1oi' z 03 i33qa3 rijiw oviiEvhob oil gnb1T .D\q .grns5133b

II

Page 14: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3mui-wouniino3 di ni ir1i 1ru1Bu thidw noiiibnoo Iii'1i3nB rfJ ;noüqmuno in3mn

orD i 31311w g> (6-i)'q k omoni at 1oc1 1(Ioiirrnn '1no riliw l3bom 3111 b noiiov

uliw u1uziiiq odT '.(r1oiisvh3b £ iol (.QQ1) IloiisD o) 3ffIO3fll lo iin r11woi b31aqxo

lo a11u31 3r11 lud O.O bcii O = i O.O = = q 3l I3born 3(11 rnv1oe iol 3200(13 3W

13i3rn1q 13db lo n.R1 bEold £ l3bnu 1imia 13viiEix1iwp 31E noi1 21111 th 2I2IEn. 3(11

2rIoi1qmu2 3rlT .(,> (6-i)'q) Jnoiisqmi briE (0 < q) irI3binq 31E 2fflu2n03 b3bivcuiq 23111Ev

1Emiiqo n i i1u2i bn3 3dT .wol3d b3c1h323b 31E 3ffl03111 iol 22331 3ii2ErI3oi2 orli luodE

orh lo Iovol o1dioq c13ro i bomu2no3 od bIuod2 rl3ucn won 2olJibni (131(1w olin

£ 2oiIqmi olin noilqmu2no3 21± QQ1 QQ1) HonED iii bodhzob 2A .oitsi orno3ni-ol-rlilEow

111w o3noilEqmi 13g1E1 3± rlEflJ 131E31 21 (MEOW Ii JE± (13112 OIJEI OfflO3fli-0i-1111E3W J31BJ

3(11 fIE± 2231 21 fillEOw Ii 2E31O11W 3vE22ib ol nEIq 111w 13fflU2fIO3 3111 bns O3nobirIq f1i3WflJO

.3vJ$2 01 nslq 111w 13U2fIO3 3111 bnl$ 33113i1Eqm1 fIi3Wi1J0 Iliw O3flObLflq 13iBi

i\i oX %1f

1o1Bi noowlod qifI2noilElol orb Juods 2fIoii3ibOlq 1obom orli 3f11f15X3 01 iobio nil

11151311!b lo sim 11E lobnu bovloe od 12um lobom odi 1nisflonu omonr bris (1J1E3W

3(11 2n5fl103 fl3IfIW ,C[I orb at bniui 3101313111 3W .\ifliEi133fIU 0(1103111 1uod 2nouqmu2a6

.3111031!! ol 213o112 lo 2noiiudrIi2ib 3151113153 01 '(152233011 0(1103(11 no sisb Iorisq lo bnbl

I 8Q1 21s31 orb iol sisb omo3rii iodsl 2nisino3 oqsq airli ni bow 13511X3 UTI oriT

10 OlqfnS2du2 'iovoq orb lo risq Ion 515 orlw 2blorlo2uorl Ô1Ef lo Iorisq s iol V8I rlguoirlI

a 2i 2noiisup3 323db baidod 3io1 3imono33 3111 .+1 = 0 51311w 0 > 51) i uoixav 3mii-3i5Ith 3dT" (iibiupi1 10 (ifliBfl33ffu 3mo3ni Juociliw I3bom (iili1u ASLHD omit auOuffuiao3 3111 io1 31U231 bIsbnEi2 A .2woHol

3111 11 .21322k 013 111kw I3fflU2(103 £ i3bi2rIOD •(6-i)tq 21 noiiqmu2no3 lo obsi diwrng 1131123b odi isdi i ainisil2no3 Jnslb2uIo3 bobud Isioqmonolff! out Ii IJOIJI 3mocii lo 3151 dlwolg 3(11 woloc! 21 noiiqmuzno3 lo 3151 i11woi t)51123b

13WU2(103 s 113u2 o bng omoni lo 1vI 3113 ovods i noiiqmu2noo lo 13v31 3111 Isdi 31n3 od l2um Ii boflails od 01 .dflow 3n i11 nwob nirrntn 3d bluow

Page 15: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

ni bcf orb aw noiq omr orb rbirfw ni bIocLowort ol 31qmE orb i3i11oi oW orb

w bod orb bohoq orb iovo orrnrb Ion bib bzorl orb lo bthzm r1i uo' o1qm. chio

no £ith bi!Bv 3IB 5lorb rkth!w iol bohoq oloriw orb iovo blo iso' O bru3 noowiod

nirli o) oviiioq i diIiow boiuaom rlthdw ml bnE omorii brt rbIB3w noiiE3ubo JIoi1Equ3)o

ofqm orli ni iith lo 1ithup oiovi orb gnivoiqmi oi noiiibb iii (oI 1i oIsJ n ow

'Effl omorn bofloqoi ni noiisiiv orb moniw ml thfonloworl ovomoi ol bnoi nioi iioi oorb

Jnom5Iii5I oIni noi1inzii io noln2oqmo3 b1on1ouor1 ni 2ognid3 (bonnuilq 1dioq) ol oub od

'1nBi1o3nu omoni o1 ol 1ddoiq oioloionli oIqm uio ni nismol Isnil bIon1oauon1 odT

omorii oIqms 2irb ni novo isrb wolod ithns orb iud bIorIo2uor1 Isiq',i orb nsrli

o!qmsa oorli gnioqmI .nib1or1 rhlnow lo noihoq o!dsk £ iol oIdinoqoi i iniistionu

iodmun isxo orb rliiw b1odouon1 OOQ 1uod 01 0 OJqms2 orb worisn o1s flot131oi

orb lo nwoblsoid bolisiob oiom A .bolobi2rio3 niod nblsow lo oiusom orli no nibnoqob

.xibrioqqA orb ni novig i 2no hi oIqfns2

lo oiusom oisnqrnqqs its rnw H flOii3O (II WOWOI 511J1513111 orb 'd boi2oua A

3mo3fli in3nro1qm3-I13 bits visIsa ogsw oW om buia aitil ni boats as omo3ni todsl lo eIffonoqmo3 nism 3dT' biA moti oaoti3 as thua ,ainomsq oi11ow ifs aobul3ni oath OtUasom tuO .blodoauod osli lo atodmom us d bonoqot

iriornobilno mon auqioot ils ;I) ocnO3nI inu33Z 1sinomoIqqu bits (aUIA) notblidD inobneqoQ diiw aoihrn&T 01 aiohow bus o3as11Jaai Jn3fn'o!qm3nU anoian3q torbo to noilstlaknimbA ansioioV Jhuo 1sbo as thus amtotq

ahii lo 3dif itT .aoviisloi moti qios! bits noqqua blith norni1 as ibua oxnslaiaas olsvflq bus ;noiIsanoqmo Isnoliaoqxo tol omorn tcxlsl Intol orb ow ow ;emozni "Isiiqs3non" od bluow rinol ov1iqhaob 010111 £ n0i3LflIafl03

oto1otod ai nivsa 1saoiJus331q no amsigolq telaiisti tor1o bus 3305llJani thboa b i3flqffli OdT .oxioinovno3

.amstoiq ibua inoti a1norirsq 3v13031 isili abIodowo1 tol ¶inisflo3ff U 3ffl0301 lo aoismiiao towol iii boianinsm

outs (Q1) biwms bits IIonsD bus (Q1) !!onsD oaus30d tonuo' to O olqooq 03 olqmsa orb l3hiaot oW nOliS3iIi3oqa 3fli3m0ff033 oW ovhob 03 oau ow isib Ioborn )b012-t3Th1d orb Isth abnuotg Ls3hiqmo bits IsiJotoodi no

ablodoauod toblo nodW .O juodit ascii tognuo ab[odoauod lo toivsdod orb bo aoiiqhaob s as o3shqotqqs laom ai at o3fIS3ffiffta Isobalinta tioth bits I)oaso-toni ots lnisPoanu no zinobiTboo3 boinmilao ocil oIqmsa ocli 01 bobbs olE

.wolod torbiub ouaai aiW aauoaib oW .xibnoqqs odi ni bsinoa5lq ots ai!uaot oaoili ;toisot

.rfflsow oviiiaoqnon duiw ablocbauor! bo noiauloxo orb 03 laudot ots ailuaot lriniqmo mo modiouiw iaoi oals oW ion ots to) mdI ioonoo thiriw aborbom oviisrnoith oats ow nociw aolsmiiao Lsohiqmo mo cii ooriomoThb ofiiiI boil oW

.noil3iliaom noiio1o olqmsa orb (01 330 jdua

Page 16: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

"4

Edn!Ar1Gut bLGCfIIOULA bLGW!11W (I�Ebb)

fJCJJ G2flLQ AGU pA IK\c T - Eb(-b]-b 11G MiJJ CJJ (IJ IJJG2I1LG fG I�GIAG

hOL OfIL 1GL GWbIUCIJ bfILbOG CffJGJG WG2FJLG O LGJ1UAG nIJCGLfTUfA i WOLG f1GfII

= = =

iK:

flUGL fJJG CBI{V flPJIfA 1jTUCfOU nmcq poc rz (c) = Cb imbjArn fJJ1f MG CTIJ 20JAG OL

tt\(•_4t) =

ncp fp&f:

onuq = X P CG KPJJP1J Ebb MOflJ pG qcjucq pA fG UJOflUf iK

2fIbboG qrnt counwbfTou r qTrupfucq LuqowJA iiirp wnJIbJciAc 2J10q( A

.o cciocn.A mu%

G2GUCG qfl.GC UJGflLG Oj, IJG S2} O JG bicccmouA 2lllJ UJOIJAG W bofln o\

BLGCflf!OUQ bLGm!11m (Ebb) qcucq pA KJwp!JJ (JfJi)i MJJO JJO/A2 fJJf tG Ebb W

JG12f JOO2GJA pcq OU fpcoLA: /JG COU2fLflCf i wGflLG LGJGq o EdnAJcuf

ID WG21IIG IIUCGWI!UA llOtGAGL ! ! bo22!pJc ID GUAG UJG11LG Oj f1UCGL1JIJfX jrnt

iucowc qi2ruprniow fluJowrnfcJA fpGoLA qo uoi bLoAqG ncp Gxbpcrf rnqrnc pocu JJOM

flpCJGUf 2WfJf!C OL JJG I.UOfIIJf O bLGCUfIfiOUfl.A AIJ fJJf 1AonJq G uqncq pA AGU

bLicr1Jn. WGTflLG O1 fJUCGLWJUA tIf /AOflj G GXfCIJA COU.GC1 !U IpG GUG fJJJI 11 morijq pG J

liu JqGJJA fG CO1JIJJGL2 obiwiiou bLopJcw nuqcr. r1uccUnufA iionjq GUGLfG

JUCOUJG flUCGWIJUfA i CLWCJ o uA cwbJL!cJ Gf!wfrou O fpc !wboLfucG o bLscrnourLA

Page 17: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

oiuocn £ 3o w URq Ii ni borioqoi ion i noiiqmuno3 Lsioi uBzoH

wollol ow bioiriI 81.qqag n o qq 2I1Edmt)1 01 bnoqio i&li ir1iBiio3nu lo

orLi 01 wooI&i i IEHI ini1ioriu omoni lo oiuom j i3m1wo oilw (.tQ1) honED

bohoq rbixo ni blorloworl ix ovodix boiIi3oq2 lobom noiiqmuno orb nJ •qqj .b.ii nix lo oulixv i-bohoq orb d boilqiikrm 1q lnonEmloq Isupo iixrli ,Y lo omoni

oix1ovix iol omoni 1iwiix bnix irlonixrrrioq niiuiiidu2 = Y o V ioii2nixI1

oil) oioH •t[1v}3 - I ovi ixiumiol qq oil) flu (Iovi13oq2o1) noiiqmu2no3 1ix1fl3E birix

noiYqmuno briix omorii oil) ;omo3ni ol aA3Ofl2 d bo3EIqol nooci ovixrl fioiiqmuno3 0) a13or12

omon1 ii sIjixxo bomu2no3 bloifoworl orb Ii Ino I&iinobx od bluow qqd$1 orb lo 2f1012IOV

'.1Eo r13E3 fiX

nix ixnJnoz i2um ow o ornoni lo 2noiisi1E5i !ixu13E Ino orxo2do ow olqmixa iuo iii

:d novi i ioiixm1io uO •qqH51 Ls3iloloorIi orli iol loiEmui2o

i 8QI [(o) !] - = I8QI

£ 10 noiiixthixoi omorn oinovix orb cf boiixmixoiqqix h1w i OfflO3flx inonsrrnoq 10 lovol oil) 11

iol shirrriol rl1 iii V 10 noiiixi3oqxo orli ni3sIqo1 01 inuomix i± eoiio omo3ni bobnoiob

Jilixup oil) Iobieno3 ow lud botusom ow noiiqmu2noo 10 a1nonoqmo iorlio boJZ)3132 baix floiiqmtieiioa booI beJEmil2o zil (8QI) oiiqixil .1thixflo3nu lo inoixo oil) iuodix ailueoi oIdiboD o3ubolq 0) iooq 001 od ol ixiub ooth lo

inoioq OV lxiii olxmiJo (IQQI) oblnu5l ;ozion i xxb ffoilqfflu2ffo3 bodI G11 Oil) iii noiixhsv oill lo lno3ioq ?.(? lxiii .32&Ofl 21

abod2 i2nkxx ilo Jqmu2no3 51u2ff1 01 1o2bolq ioax lo "bo32-leIIud' ix qu bliud 2bfodo2uod inobrnq 32usofl°' ow1 r1i noowiod qirl2noilxloz oifl .,Y nxth oldxhxv ol oil 111w noriqmlJ2no3 ni inomolo mobnm odi OfnoDni oX

.noiiqmu2no3 lo JiLicfxhxv oth oixoini 11kw ,1V to iilidshxv oth xi 232xol3ni ;3inoioffom 21 ,iovowod

Page 18: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

IQ

= =

ffEbb fl2!U KWJP9IL HO11O1J WC Ebb (itt) qcuiirncq pA jpc cdrn,iou:3OBGCI12G fpG 2J10CJC 12 qqwc LUWL nau wngibc&uic IJCLG 12 110 IG20U 0 2C1 (G Ebb PA fO 2GI L1J

qJ2rupcIIcq IJJGU fG i bbLox1wcJ) Gdrnq jo JUG piuciou o rpc Juucc oj wbJn21pJG OLUJ 92 MG JJ92G922nwGq II IpG 20CJC2 10 1JCOWG LG JououJJJJA

u joon LGJIIou2pJb c9U pc qGuAGq 0L IG IEbb ! (1ITIA WJCG2 IPG WOLG

CVBV woqcj iiup qqtmG uoi.uij 2pocjc CP9JJGLO (ioi) 0L

2!wbHTJc1ou tjrnt jjoii cJo2cq-Jouu mjAticij 2oJrnTou2 10 pc qcicq GWGGU MG9JIJJ uq

GJ1W1IJ1G pA 922nwbfJou uA 2bccwJ LOJG OL IpG I{Eb& pqccq TI 12 GXCIJA 1JJ12

bLGCI2G LGJp0u2pTb 2!mbJG JTU jouw jpn 2bcc1Ucuou2 u bwiion MOLJ(

2r1uJCGu1 2W12qC 0L IG q2bGL2ou w jjc q12uprwou cuq IPG cviv 922nwbIIou TAc2 IJJG

IJJGOLGIJC9J /JJflG 0J 8°\ JJJG UOUJJ9JIIA 122nwbnou ffl1LUfGG2 qJ'I IJJG A9149UCG

uq ¶2I4JUG U0UJJHA M1JJ ALWUCG 0 Q flUGL IIJG2G 922nLJJbIou2 I1 Ebb 92

922flWG 1P1 II!IA CV1�V (rc n(c) = -Gxb(-9c)\9) uq 1Pfl IJJG 2IJOCIC 0 JC0UJG 12

fluCG14mJfA 2I1J J2 IPG AUJJCQ LOL GXUJbJG p9 pccu cowuou wbwAJon2 MOLJ( 10

CLCfJW2WUCG2 fG IJbB Mfl U01 AG flJ AIJWG 0AGL 11JJG0LGI1C1I WG92fILG2 0 IUCOUJG

LG2bOIJ2G 10 IIIJCGLW!iJfA JU IJJG C0U2nWGL2 L2I-0LqGL couq!fIou o C0IIL2G 11UGL 2OWG

J1UCIT0U 92 iuqcxGq pA b iG 2TIIJG CJrnLCIGLT21!C IJJ1 OAGL1J2 IJJG 2G 0 fJIG bLccnfioun.7

2 1JJ1 !12 UJUTrnqc 12 uncuccq pA IJJG COUAGXTIA 0J IJJG C0U2IIUJGL2 WLU9J fUJJIIA

JJJG IPGOLGIJC9I LG92OU 10 bLccL IJJG I�Ebb 0AGL OIJJGL WG92IILG2 0 TIJCOUIG fIIJCCLI9IUIA

0p2GL/f10u2 10 11 AGLC !IJCOWG 0p2GLA0U

IjJG I1JG0LGI!CJ J�Ebb M!IP 1G AGL9G 0 IJIG b-cxbouGu1uiGq 1.JfJ02 0J IJIG 2GAGU 1!JCOUJG

Page 19: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

pcumuicrqco jçijj uq

JJJG OLGO!U UjA21 JJ9 2flGfG fjJf MJJGU nffflfA O IJJG fpGOLGfiCJjA bJnipJG

1cfl%$ cr ci iwcuot o\ cccinh

MQipfGq qJ2bLoboJoIrnfcJA LGJ1ThG fO fJJG fMO IJGfTAG pocp o no uq jo bGLccuf1

i w f}JT j bccciu iGL fpU I�Ibb9 PGCWG rpc j bcLccIu UGf AG 2OCJC

= - ((osQ+o + =

= — + + = o'o2

COGIJICIGUI O LGJfJAC UJC SAGL2IOU O 3 fJJG I{Ebb qJfiufli2pG2 G1MGGU IPG2G f/AO Gf2

LG9JIfiOIJ2 MIfJJ fG 2LUG WGU uq AL UCQ ! B ={o o io} rnwiuA1JUCG O fJJGG JJOCJC2 LG JJ 9uq if O LGbGCfIAGJA UOfJJGL Gt O IJJLGG Gdf1JJA jccjA

fpLGG LGJTff!OU O UJCOUJQ 9LG GdIIJJJA jijccjA' v = {o uo v} JJJG 21JJb1G WGU uq

nwurnuscq pA wcu rniq Au91JcG EOL cxwbJG COU2qGL U IJCOWG bLocG22 U /AJJCJJ

UGfIAG 2JJ0CJC2 /ApGU fG q2fupcwOU O JJOCJC2 12 2AWWGf4C uq ffl2 IJOf bc1ccfjA

JJJG C1MC1J JGIUJLG O fJJG J{Ebb 12 fJJf f 12 q12bLobOLf1OufGJX 2GU2IfIAG fO jLG

GxbLc22Iou cu pc jaipcL 2rwbJjcq fO J�Ebb - (r - ba) = bQ'

cxb(-ba" '\'y fliu fG bbLocmJwou 1JJI1 1 12 CJO2G fO GLO Gxb() j -i- rp(E[A'b])jb = cxb(-ba '\ JJJGLGOLG 1 A 12 JOUOLIJJJJA qj2rupnrcqa fJJGU L{Ebb = -

i'(p[x1) = P 2jJO/AU IJrnI E[Ab1 cxb(b5a uq COU2GdflGIJfJA 1jJf

JO O JIJCOIJJG DGUUG A = JU(A") M(o a' "Y BGCfl2G 111(x) w(o a) 1wb11c2 fJf

Page 20: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

Jg

wctpoq M2 OJJOM2 Jc qMqcq OIIL wbjc iwo 2rip2wbjc COLLC2bOUqIu to rpc c!pt

MCW to cpooc u iuibLobcL JIUCtIOUJ jpLUJ JOL IIJC q2t4pntou 0j JIJCOUJC 2JJ0CJc2 OffL

OL tJJC IUCOUJC JJOCJ(2 tpCLCpA AoTqu IJJG botcutwjjA GLOfI CLLOI2 tJJt W!JJt LI2G ij MC

OflL bbLocp M2 to couu.nct uoub9Iwctuc jcwCj cquJtc oj tpc qcuiA nucrou

IUCOUJC.

uionut o bLCcrnfioUI.A 2Arn 12 ACLA 2GU2JfIAC to tJJC boipijA oj JLC UCtIAC pocjc to

TU tjJC jO/ACL t1J JjJ12 bLopJcw i botcutirjjA oj LCt couccuJ pCcrI2c tpcoQ bi.cqict2 tpt tpc

qw ju bwcnjr tpc cmbiucj qJ2f4pntou CXJJIpII2 couqcpjc Cxcc JCflLtO2J2 G2bCciJJA

tpC J2 12 JOUO1.UJJ. flOMCACV 2WtJ2tCj tC2t2 2tLOIJjA LGI.CCt JOUOLUJJ!A OL C /2 TU OIIL

JOIJOLIJJJJA q!2u4pntcq UfJLJ MA o bLocccq onjq pe to 22nwc tpt c qtt.pnrou oj

pOAC JCtMCCIJ tJJC 1{JJJ uq tJJC MJUUCG 0j 2JJOCJ2 to jo !UCOIJJC MCU IJCOWC 2jJOCJC2 LC

PCtMCCU tPC J�Ebb uq WLGt /ACJtP Q1AGIJ tpc bbLox1wtC cJo2cq-oLw LCjtou2pb qcuAcq

2iwnJfJoU CXCLCI2G2 i to 2flG2t u bbLobutc GCOUOUJCLUC 2bccrtjcwou OL Ipc LcJt!ou2pib

OL ccp o tpoc qI2tuprJtJou2 9uq rpc uJoqCj2 bt.cqJctcq WLCt MCJqT JJJC bnLbo2c O tPC2G

botcutwj HJCOWC qi2tupntiou2 uq to cxw'uc tpc Lcj ou2pth CfMCCU tpc pjj ccntcq

OfiL 2ojntiou to tp bLopJcw i to 2JAC onL uJoqcj unwcucjjA JOL AucA oj

LcIflou2pib MIflJ tpc tLCt MCJtp-1o-iIJComc 1.tJO

bLccntouLA 2I4U }IOMCACL CAGU f}JG Jflbb qOG2 UOt pMC J cJo2Gq-OLw iJ-JAtICJ

LtiOU1C OL CXUJI1JIU tJJG I�Ebb 2 WG2IILC OJ !JJCOIJJC r1UCGLt1UA ju cwbrucq uiJA2c2 o

AIJ1JCC O incomo (tpc ibbLobufc WG92J1LC MGU citiJiA ' cvicv) Jp12 cou2tiuxtc2 OfIL

W WOW CCfILtCjA LCUCCt tpc 2tLCUtJJ O tJJC bLCcrJtiouLA 2A1IJ IJJOtTAC 1JJU MIJJ tJJG

JOLW uq tJJC qi2tupIuiOu O 2OCJC2 to UJCOUJC 12 botcutjj? I2AIJJWCtL1C tJJC ffEbb

Page 21: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

r11 rkirlw o hoo nohiubo xi bn ohool iiwbni oviowi 3flog33E3 noiisquxo

ow i blorloworl r13o ioI .quoi lnoiollib lo 1ioi i iol no1od bIuo bIor1ouor1 10 bsor1

iovo omo3ni (bobrioiiob) niom 3± ol I iio ni omozni bo'nodo lo oi1i orli s 7 bolsfJJz1I

b noimiIs51 inobnoqobth n. a oor1i lo rb&i flo-ii oW .bohoq 31qmE orli lo 213' novo Ith

noiiEv132do nV 2o3ubolq ouprnrf 331 ith quo novig £ 111 thlorlowod a oi oiodi ii wi1T .V

riorli oiow quoi oth lo rbio lol '' oodi lo K1D I&i-iiqmo oriT .quo ic1i iol V no

3(13 lo 2noi1udhiib Ilul odi i i&IT .io1imiio Iomo)1 inioq-inow1 sd boimixoiqq

orli bni m iifiddoiq Isupo lo 2lsvloIni 1fi3wi oirn borioiiiriq oiow quoi 113130 (11(111w

sd ' lo ouI13v 113111313 rbo ai313Iq31 c1 boloirIi2no3 213w noiiudili2ib 3(11 iol 1oi13miJo Ionio)1

bor12 lo noiiudhl2ib 0(11 lo ff1123 131110)1 3111 io1 .IBV131111 113111 (11 ' 1o OU1BV (1133ff 3111

ovods bocfil3eob loborn )13o12-loIIud o± bovloa nodi ow quoi 3(11 to rbso io1 3(1103(11 01

3113 boizIuzth 02113 oW .oiiBI Omo3ni-oi-rllI13Ow 1o1Bi boilqmi 1obom orlJ boi131u3th brts

lovol ofli lo 33n131-iEv oril bnE muxmolq (113n0iius3o1q lno1isviup OvilElOl 3± lo 0111EV 31313VE

.23fl031E3 odi lo do iol offlO3ni lo o1 o111 1o bn13 01fl03111 lo

101 013131 omo3nI-o1-rllthow 1oisi boi3ibolq 1obom orli 10 ol ocIl 2JoIq El oiuiI

i&1i iol boiEIu3th3 qqj 0(11 12niEE 311103ff lo noiiudhi2ib (13133 n13s1 i3fflU2ff3

lo o3nthlEv 3111 ianth oi1131 omo3ni-ol-±thow o1 i3u13 3± io1q dl o1u11 .noiiudhi2ib

lObflU 1niEflo3nu lo O1U2EOffl olErlqolqqE i11E3ii31oor13 3111 (Y51AV 411o103n311) 0(1103(11

01 bo1oi 132o13 Ion 21 '(SlAV 113111 2work 2o1ui1 owl odi lo nothEqmoD .'(iifilu ASIAD

o1 orli alolq 31 oiuxl .no122u321b niooio1 o± mon boI3oqxo as qqj 21 as 1131133w iogw1

iErlworno2 .(YJSJAV) 3rn03111 lo o1 3111 lo 33111311Ev odi i2fLLEE 011131 Omo3fli-ol-1111133w i31E1

1111133w 1og niniE1qxo asi oHl nsrli iwc\ 3111 s 2fmolloq 31U2E3ff ir1i oariqiu 1110 01

Page 22: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

.woI3d riibrn1 idi lo woiiHqmi u3ib w ;nibIor1

oI 3(11 lo 2noi aioi 31Jthvirw niu iui1 &1i lo arn d1 3xk1Em1o1 I 1dT

omozrni lo 31IJI33ffl uohEv 3r13 no (\W) ojisi 3moni-o-r131s3w 1th1 I3born 3(13 lo

315 oni1 b3iiil oodw 2noi3i31 3± 3113231q31 31d51 odi lo th1 u1i iii1 3dT .1nu1th33nu

(153i b3bnrni3b) di lo nthmv orli isrli rni1no3 31d51 ff .I duoi± s I a5IuiI lii b11o1q

ililsow 11si b313ib31q '13bom 3111 ninbs1qx3 cr1 11113211 a1 fds13bi2no3 i 3ffl03ffl 10 13v31

3111 3w533d ni2i1q1u2rw 21 2irlT .3mo3ni 10 o1 3(11 lo nsiisv oth o 3(11 13(1 nsrli

2)13O1t2 3V11E3f1 bris 3vlli2oq 01 1f113W IBIJp3 23V1 (YSIAV) 3(1103111 lo 13V31 3(11 lo 33(1511EV

aA3of12 3v1is3rI lo noiiudhino3 3vr15131 3± 33(15(1(13 1dsi3bi2no3 YJ5IAV bns qqii 311(1w

.gnivs2 (1Enoi1uE331q no l3sqmi grIoli2 £ 3V5f1 rl3irIW

iom 21 YJ5IAV' :3-El 2311Jgi1 lo 1111231 lnoisqqs 13(110(15 2rrrlIIrlo3 fl012251g51 lx3rI odT

331111 bno332 3flT .oilsi rlils3W 13151 153113103(11 3(11 01 qqj i 1i bb I32o13

331113 3(1152 311110 o1 3(11 bns ('1\W) 1o o1 3(11 n33w13d qIrl2nonEIol 3(11 13bi21103 2flO1223131

13c1ik 2urnoIl3q qqai 3(13 31U2E3 lii lo 223nb00 3111 no b3sfl .1rn1$fl33nu lo 23111253(11

111(1 2fl01223131 lo 1 12111 3(11 (11 null 1311311 I1dik 2mloII3q 3111253ffi Y5IAV 3(13 bns iow lnsl2no3 s ni b3lsmuja3 (13(1W lull 211111231 nbth12 31ff .bognsrl3nu 21 gUDInJi1 3V115131 li3fll

-1 rlliw 113a1i YJ$IAV nsit1 1311311 113V3 2rrnoh3q YJ5IAV 1o o1 3111 noi1s3i1i33q2 ii3i12E13

.8QO lo 5I ris bus lo 311211512

IthJn3loq lo b1311 odi WOllEff 01 b31I2iw 3w )how IS3rllqm3 1110 (II 1i3i1qmi2 ioT

YJ5IAVJ bus lE3qqE 153113103(11 2j1 iol qqg 3111 320(13 3W .owl 03 'ifII53133fUJ 1o 231U2E3ffl

. 1 31(1ST 111 23Vi113n13115 3(13 1o ns usd1 13133(1 2mloh3q ii 32U533d

lol alhizi isill bnuol oW .1 oldsT ni lnisfl33nu lo 3iuE3m 3f1i us niu 2i2(1snn oth boffnoh3q oLs OW oiow oiusom or13 lo 1113 iol JJuox oil) bns boog llsupo 13fl1fntxo1qqs 013W YSIAVJ bns YJ$IAVJ N15I

Page 23: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

flpUf1ll) pcrIcz. LpIJ pG LC2flU2 OL WG OfCL IPLGC UJG&2IILG2

ncq pA c'.'°ii uq WMICJC (j) w uo qeucq pLOW tpc tpcoi.A oj

JJOCJ(2 WOLG LGJ2tCJJA t91J MG qOe prit it j2O JJi qLMpcJc2 H12f flUJTJCG tpc I{EIthC file

jp jtcutic ibbLorcp p ipe qiuwc o tctu rpc bcLfcucG Oj UCOWG

GfiUJtG tL91J fOLA uq bcLuiucuf A91.19ucG2 LtGL tjrnu c KEBb 0. r'AVT�r'K

cwbiucj LGLG220U GdrfllfiOU 21W1J9L 10 O(1t2 plif (12G G!L WG2(ILG O (IUCGLf91UfA Ipc

A91.19UCG2 o c tLutoLA iuq bcuijucu 2pocja cojj uq WMJCJC (J?) Gt1UJtG u

rrq uq 1ououn9JJA qifupnfcqe 21wb1c GCOUOWGfLC OWJflJ2 Aicjq G2fiIJJfG O tJJG

bcLm9uduf 2OCJC to pJcowc £pcA poM rp&t i potp ILmJ2II0LA uq bcujjucu pocp c

bbLocpe bnL2nsq w c'-'°ij iuq 9WMJCJC (ioY to 9JJOM 0L pOtJJ tLffU2t0LA uq

AG 22ffIJJG 1JJt JUCOWG JJOCj( 9LG fL91J2IfOLA uq uqcbcuqcut OAGL f!WG IJU JtGLUf!AG

uotpGL botcunj CIJfJGI2W o tpc bLoccqrac MG ncq 10 bLoqncc jpjc j tpt MG

cxbcumcutcq Mrp qicLeuf AJflG2 o b uq onuq pujc qrijpcucc u tpc GCOU0UJGfUC LGr1J12

ionuq {2 UOt wiicp qujGLGu1 iL0W IjJO2G III JJC J JU O1IL W1GL CuJbiUC9J LG2fl1t JAG

oca pcjiuc 'i' oj b ou tpc J{Ebb ccnjtcq io uou-pcJJuc iijric oj b Ju 9JJ CG MG

GAGL9J qpccut bJn2JpJc f22f!Wbfi0U pont be uq LGLGiU 1pG UILGf MG9Jtp GuGLtGq jOL

riwiu qjpcut b c cpccjccq MG1GL 1p MJ2 bLopJcm pA cjcntiu IEbb nuqci.

c1Jcf1JltGq MUJJ icu b MGW piq pqcto o tpc WLGt MGJtJJ tpr Monjq LGflJ1 lLOW

1mG1 ijnc o b oim bLoccqntc MonJq pc bLopJcwtJc n tpc LcJqoupb PfGcU jçjjj

O {JJ 1APGU niu JEbb to ujAc ctrij poncpojq McJtp qge MG qo uof j(UOM fG

MGJ1 tO If I flJt MG necq ipe 9wG b iu opiu G UJOqGJ uq lu cou1uic!u 0111. WG2flLG

ouc bopjc oplcciiou to 0111. hLOCCqfILG OL C0U21LflCt!U I�ELb uq WjtiJ fLGf

Page 24: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

ol 1 i a)13or1 orli lo Vithrrnono1 lo r1oiiqmLJE 3r11 3wE3d bno .gthv 'çiEnoiiu31q

bnl$ 11or1E3 3rD in3noqmo3 irI3nfrrI3q bnE sioiinfl olni 1or1 lo noi1i2oqmob 3(11

orli lo oimii 3hl3mlnEqnon thm 01 W wolic ion 3ob 'go1obof1i3rn (Q1)

'11Rfrnongo1 ion 31B abode moni odi ii vod b3u3aib A .hoth io1 noiiz>nul 'iiri3b

3d 111w (Q1) 13iwmE bnE IIoiisD ni bu oaorfi oliI ujm nthiv b3iudhi2ib

11niiioqm1 1om bni HniT .quo1g O13E a33n313Thb 1th 31r11 orli lo Io1s3ibth l3oIloqmi

01 JliJ3ffijb iom s11th1nEjdu 23m033d Ii no risdi i3rliEl '1fIisi13fIu lo 31u253m owl rhiw

3r11 i rhI&w 31 3i5 rbum won gfliniml3i3b ioI i in3mhoqx3 3iEilqolqqs 3(11 Isrlw obi33b

3(11 (bniI bns HonsD s) 11 11s1u3iiisq 1flIEif3)flU 3mo3ni (11 33fl31311ib lo i1i3i

.3rIirn-13i3b ol iJu3iTlib i s1niBfl33r1u lo iuasm owl 3rD noowl3d noiJsf3T1o 31i11

i 3d sm bor1 ln3bn3q3bni 10 noiiqmuaas iuo 3IiEffl31dOlq won igusg ol ''sw 3n0

IJ0TISD nil isrD 31i1 i 2±orI 3mo3rli lo 3w13Lni !SrJi3S 3(11 Ii 3(11 3fIIBX3 01

13LflifIOZ) 01 3V0d5 b3flIlflJO 5Iub33oq 3(11 3W 223!3f1fl3V3fl w lud QQ1) biwm2 bn

31U2E3ffl 3Of11 no 01151 3mO)fl1-0i-f111R3W r!i lo go! 3113 231g51 (13(11 bns YJ5IAVJ bns qqg

3(11 iol 3u1sV lo xhism £ iol gnivs lo l3bom *o1-1311ud s b3v1o 3W .'inistinu lo

IS3 13q 1.0 03 0.0 molt gnignsi )13Of1 inI3nEml3q bns ioiirisii lo noiisiv3b bisbns1

qqai 3rD b3151u3153 n3rIj oW .'inisfloanu 10 znoiiswgi1no 31di2oq lo Isiol £ gfIllslonog

V iol oaooiq omoni oor1i lo dso gniislumiz molt 11u231 bluow isrD YJ5LAV bns Y5JAV

)bo1-13ThJd orD d boilqmi oiis 3m03n1-oi-nfflsOw logisi orli lo go! 3± booigoi bns iso' bns ougi'1 nil bonolq 315 J1IJ231 ouT .'inllBfl3onu lo 5I1J253ffl b31511J3IS3 3± no lobOffI

. oldsT ni 11s3i1i1si bohsmmu

i 223301 3moni oril rioriw novo isili noiiioqoiq orli rrrii1no oldsT nil ai1ui o(1T

Page 25: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

' Pft0LMLC1 MC OUJI( 1 OL pLcl!1A

PC bO2qAC !U (PC 2CUCC O bi.cr1r!oum.A 2A!IJ UJOI!AC Jpc bioo 0L IpC 2LJL CCI.LOIIJfA CdHLA9jCUCC woqcjv uui borni (PUt 12 1OCUflX UCCC220L) 2 (0 2OM (PUt (PC COCWC!CU( 00 (PC flUCCL(11UO WCO2OLC2 ThOflj( 1101

QIIL GCOUOIJJCfLIC bGC1pCUfiOJJ J qGUAGq LOW GdflUt!OU (s):

wc c.jccfltcnx

1K EWbJ4CJ E2iWOU O flJG joqGJ

lop o cbinuu tpc qCLC O !UCOUJC nIJCGLWpJA COUI1UJG12

qcLcut LOW fIJ !Tq bLOCG MC Uflf1UIC 01K 2nwurnLA U TUfcU tijj qo i.coupjA ooq

jpjc (uq 1LfGL UiwnJtTOu2 UOt LcboLIGq) tUt CACU n ipc !UCOUJG bLoccUU AGLA

MpGLG 0) i c WGU(JLC o nucci.tiutA crtpcL L{Ebb OL rAVBr'K JG JUO coucjnqc LOW

0 1()

LcbLcUcutcq GcouoLuctucJJA pA u GdnUnou p2q ou:

LCJoUUpJb CtThGCU JCO1JJQ flUCCLWIIJtA U1J pG MG9JLJJ-to-iucOwC LfIO CU C MGJJ

Q1'K COUCJnUIOIJ LOW JUfJG2 j uq JU fpUI tJJG p11jCL-2tOCIC uoqcj !IlJbflGU fPUt fJJG

JIJCOUJC LG JLCL

fJJ1U 10 J.UpJG j) LGUCCf!U fJJC uouJJJJcUuA tPUt CX2f2 1J WG LCjUfOU2p1b Mpcu tpc pocjc to

O1 LOf1Uq ØQ ACLUfIU UpOfif Ø JJJC LCJU(!AC BSqOLWUCC 0L IPG I{Ebb 12 2JpfjA PCUGL

LUfiO ju tpc r.cUcJJf2 tpc nucGLwiufA WCUUOWU !U jCAGJ2 orltbcqoLw tO2C TU jo' itp

UbbLoxruJUGJA ITuGUL LGJUtIOIJ2JJJb GtMGCU KEbb OL FAVI�T'A uq tJJG jo O fC fLG1 MCJf1J

ACLA qIppLGJJf L0W fpc bLocGUU 2UflWG JO COU21Lf1CtJ1J 1{EJ Jq FAVI{FAtCLG 2 Utflj UJJ

Page 26: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

'( + + = (—\oi (E) "'I

:2ovi bia rliod oi (q)o! nibbA

c + ()oI + + = ('N)o1

:noiiupo if1i lo nokiov Iiono oiom I1ilgik £ i noiifthoq2 Inil iuO

i + + (1)o1 + + ()

oit bn ,au1i Iii1Em {xo 33B1 iol foino3 3if1q11ofn3b 5I oIdthv odi oiodw

1inu od 01 (q)oI no inoi3iIIoo3 3111 nthli2fIo3 ion 230b () noiiupa .nolbIid3 lo iodmun

.omo3ni in3nrrr13q lo !ov1 3111 1111W (IEV 01 OIIE1 3mO3ni-Oi-r1i13W orli niwoIIR sdoior1i

ono 1no 21 oiodi JEIII 23U2 ovodE boinooiq nivj lo loborn 13ol2-1oTIud odT

riliow IOtI IEIOI ft133flOZ r1iliow ioiEi luodE anoiiiboiq 'fobom r1T .loaz biupi! 'Iio1ioq

(W14) rltiow Ion IEioi gni2u () noilEupo oiEmii2o o1o133fh oW .io2 o1ni2 2i111 ni blorl

io22E lo oni obiw £ ni i2ovni ni iom1Jano3 ,32iu03 lo 1iIEo1 nI .oldthrnv lnobnoqob o11i

oI od 'm 21o2 biupiffi .3ibiupiI lo ooiob iiorli ni w io±o noms io11ib rk)idw

boiiupoi onom io omii siixo ocIl lo owod 2)130112 omoDni bEd i2nis b1Buoth £ a 1u132u

II .Omo3ni 03E1q5I 01 io 23nOqX3 nogiomo loom 01 boboon 113 odi olni morli mul 01

oiom oiii eioa biupil oiom lo 2nibIod I&li bull 01 nithcpu2 od ion oiolo,odi bluow

Iovi22o1o1q owl iol () noilsupo oiBrnui2o O2IE ow 1inoupo2noD .'iniiiooriu or ovli2no2

nndl b3qol3v3b 1 i b1oth2uod lo noi2kb oiolnoq 3111 110 JniEfl331IU 3m0311k lo 133T13 3111 no th135l bni (1Q1) 1Idmi){ bni 1iobn3mLL bun (nIQ1) flndmD! 3bubni 3ibU12 I83i151O3L1T .gnivn isnoilusziq no mill

ibu1 3odJ Jibiupil 01 noiithbn nI .(QQI) 33sih3T bun i113qqnt oaiuD J bmn3oiq i how 1s3r qm3 3mo erriuit ic lo 33unh11V03 3111 i nivn innoiJuniq lo noiln3oth3 oilolrioq lii 1033111 innnoqmi iothons miii wo(12

.311103111 01 1301f 3111 tliiw

Page 27: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3± Hi b3Iisi3b is fbiffw lo 21rI3rioqmo iosx3 1i) lo iusm biupil 510(11

23223ni2ud b3nwo '11snoi3q Hi bns 3moit nism 3± ni 'iup nibu13x3 clflow ion :(xibnoqqA

od H5 ñzhlw (AJV) ios biupil xov bus (W8T4H4 4lIsow 2aoni2ijd-non rnuor1-non)

.2l2o 2H01135w5fl lfsm2 chiw oilon liorl2 no blsbiupi1

ow iibiupi1 2ols1oqo3r1i 1ii3ifqxo 15(11 *iowomsi 153115103(11 £ lo 33fl32d5 orb nI

biupil 1r1irI ni blorl od bluorl2 233n515d 1snoi1usoo1q isrIl norii2oqolq orb isril olon 1qmi2

nib1orI Hi noilsviiom nism orb II .isoqqs 12111 Is sm ii s gno1l s Ion 21 2(rnol

£ B ff3112) omo3rii ol a13or12 oic1 md 5151 12rnsE 31112111-1132 01 21 210225

212o3 2n0i1352n511 orb sq om olidwrlflow od 113w 'Effl Ii (mnomo1qmoriu lo lloq2 bonoIoiq

(11su13s IHOVO bobsoib orb isdi nsl2mrJ3li3 oisi orb rti biupilli oizbiupil ol biiupoi

bstu2som orb moil 2ldob ns 1z)slIdu2 Ion 2oob oiusom AJV mo 32u530d 1ovoo1oM .2111330

Orb 1IIJ231 £ 2A .lobom 1110 Hi (bloW 1311 lo mqo3noo 3(11 01 borsloi b1s3W 1no 21 11 233285

.flOTt2 h51U3th5q 10(1 21 owl iodlo orb 13V0 rlllsow lo OlIJ2EOffl 3110 nnio1oiq ioI 0253

213111U2H03 ISrII 21 2i215ff5 153133103± niooio1 ouli Hi HorIqmu2an lnsrioqmi nA

21 nolms3xli3oq2 3rllomOnO3o uo lo libifav oriT .ioivsrlod rIivE2 )13o12-IoIIud ni ogsno

1111 mon 3Oth 03 bOlaqmo3 3111 (ll 3111 lii 31uaa3fn 1131113w 331113 3(1310 i)2i1sl zammu xibn3qqA 3111 nI -dgifi b31qms2vo thhlw viu £ t1 iio) 'o i crui? 3(11 mon zbIod3wo11 lo 31qms wo3olana

3111 31qma2 owl 311110 n11ib3m r1T •CIR1I 3113 nsdJ illlaow no ainb 133111133b iom b333311o3 bnn 2bloth2uod 31110301 Ito) qqu 3m313x3 3d) iuJqao Ion oob (fl 3113 iovwoH .13db dzao lo OOO1Z nidjiw '(lla3iqi 3ao13 (13rn311X3

3111 233113213b11[J isdw3moa slab ajq dj 1in3upno3 ,bna ID 3113 ni b3w1q53 ai bath noiiudñ1ib 113153W 3(11 lo IJ 3113 3mqmo3 IIU131a 310rn odw (Q8QI) na3ioM bnn 133wt jiifluD 10 23111231 3111 oodz 3nthnfl 2iiIT .naom 3113 lo i2om 101 l3fIflol 3d) as th153w lo 31112113111 £ 13003 25 han abivoiq 13fl51 di lath 3bu1311o3 bns bns

ls3rnqm3 1110 ni 1131113W 10 13v31 3d) oath 1311151 301 3111 3111211 iol anoiia3ithauj Ji3ilqmi wo lo 3110 .nozisluqoq (11JIS3W 13m31JX3 lo i11rmn llsma £ a3o1 natli 1311151 2!3v3! 111 b3ffnoh3q 315 211012231331 Ii Jath at anoiis3flb3qa

.21111231 lfi3hiqm3 3111 W3A2 '11i331g na 21310113211011

311103111 ftIofIBm13q boa viollaaail Isunria 03 a(3o112 lamloffgol 1111w 1313051 A3o12 13l1U11 S a3VIOa (QQ1) HonsD lo 2113q2 31101 as 2131q131ni 311 113111w 1a zi1n 3111 101 013S 01 a3o3 35103111 lad) 1i1idado1q llama £ riliw baa

131111(1 3dJ lo 1101131111 331111 S bach a13IIII 3d 3151 13V 315 aiff3V3 113u2 lath noliqmuaaa 3(11 3liqa3U .in3nro1qm3flu .abofk ln3nScm3q bits io1iansi3 launna 3111 0)111111) 1311)111 ainlV3 35103111 013S 323111 lo 1531 3(11 01 31(12111(111)15 at

Page 28: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

ol b3133qx3 3d 1d&1o31 ni 2blorbwod Itif1w lii 3tqmI B io1 b3iu2 Lrio o1o1i3d1

brIB 11ouD bns (1QQ1) )13iwm (QQ1) IIonBD .loivErf3d thv 13o1-11IJd KU

IEIII w3iv 3d3 cliiw jn3i2no3 i 33n3b1v3 1shiqm3 b 13hBv i i&11 3UiB (QQI)

3vsrbd 01 niad lud 1rtuo lilnu ioivBrI3d niv )1ooi-13Tlud ni 2b1or1uoc1

iiij(:l ln3m3iij3i r1ib31q '133thb3mmi eis 3111 ni 213V bv 3111 1inoiiibini 3)111 5iOKU

s13vi1i2oq 11112 i niv 1&iohu31q lo InuomB 3111 bohq 1n3rn3ii1331q 31ib3mmi 21(11

ths3 £11 )13012 (11163W b3133qx3 2 13fflfJ2flO) 3113 iud inisrinu 3m03r11 lo 333b 3(11 01 b31B13

113w 2J 3n3m511151 n qrnb 3ffl03fl1 3(11 lo 3bu1inm bni nimi1 rh lo noilznul B oziB 2i 1Z3\(

3101513111 3W .1n3m311131 i3lB bns 31o13d 3hlrnq 3moni\ orb lo 31ui)u1i2 32i331q 3111 213

3Iqm62 3(11 nhub O nf$rll l3bIo on i bEorl orIi 113111w fri 2blod32uorl 01 3IqmB2 mo limil

moblo nibu1oni 31qm132 hill orb mol bofliBido 2111J2si orli imoqom o2IB ow r1uor11li3) bohoq

.(2bIorI32uorl

O1UI&I 3111 21 23111251 n0116m1323 3111 nuJn3231q 3lOIod b32231bbB 3d 01 31J221 113(111 31ff

bnB 1rIith33nu rilod 32u3333fl .bo2u 31ub3301q gnilrIornLrlI2ni 3(11 lo noiiS3iIiJ2uj bris

3d l2um '3c11 s1sb 1110 (Ii 10113 itliw bomusom 'IdEf10iJ23upnu 3113 3(1103111 lnorisffn3q

2(11511103 132 iflomIrli2rIi miiO .231131T11123 lol3msmsq 3(1312121103 nisido 03 5113 3W Ii boinomlrli2ni

gnol13 181 ni blorl32uorl lo bsorl 3(11 lo vy2ubnr bris noi1&wbo 110i1squ330 3111 101 immub

floilsqu33o 3(11 bolosioini 02133 oW . flu bon16Ino3 'bE3m113 eoldsrisv 3urfqsigomob 3111 rhliw

(I) fforJ1$upo lii m3ldolq nohod-o1im1ni di 03 noiiulo2 3is1z-bno3z 3111 thitiw ili 3E OIIJ 21 3LJ22L IS3Ith) oiIT £ iIiiw m3IcloIq noshod-Oiififl 2uoo11$m3 osli ni 3km noilqImJeno3 IEmuiqo sift 03 noiJEmixoIqqE boos £ 34 03

ni 03 ibio ni Jn3iJnqmi 3d i2um g13mu21103 lEdi 111351 .o1gi tIJwoi 3mooni lo r13111$q 3bp-31iI 31ia1s51 341 nI .m3Icfolq 3mii-3151ib ,nothocl olinftnk 343 iii 0 > 5I) 21 d3iuLw lnom5thJpet ,oivzc13d oi-flud

iliwoig Isunti b3133qX3 oiIl 03 b31s131 21 ¶1i113Up3fii 34i lo 3bia bn1$d-nl3h 343 gnbIsoq kmoo1 m3Idoiq nohod 3311111

n 1I 13R3 t idi bni$ i3bIo 3 13H2R03 21$ 2wo12 diwoig 3m03111 o2u&H .1il lo 211$3 2nnimi lln ni 231si mon 2311331w2 i3ffl1121103 oiIJ bns 2b1or1 i3no1 on noi1ibno 341 inioq 311102 113 sn3m3th31 3 moni iii qoib 313aib

.R1V1$2 31131115U151 IsflOxflbIlli 31011$ 03 iOiVBd3d 9111V132 3q1 bo32-1311ud

Page 29: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3fflui3Iil lflOl3IIib iol wollE 01 i3blo iii rn13i bn gi 3111 thiw 1dJthEv noiiEub3 brth

i r1T) .quoi 1noiiiwbo bns noinqu33o 11131311kb ml ni1133nu bnE 3ffl0311! 1o 31flo1q

.(xibn3qqA 3111 ni 11u1 b3dh3ob ! Jn3rn(rI1f!i lo

3ldEflJv 1E1nomulIni ni thd 1ii1no1oq 3111 no b3qol3v3b '1inoi ir1 31u1E1il A

'b ldiiiv 3(11 b3lfil3TIo3 'b1g3w (1f1o m 21f13m1n1rti 3(11 113(1w 11u31 lEfli noi1oi 12•liI 3111 ff011 3jj2jjj-q r11 Ii ..." lsrli 3bulno (4QI) )boJ2 bnis igiii .niin3mrri12th 31

bni biid '1b&J 3d 11E3 bnE J&rrionnon 311 i1ifl1 3J-bno3 nofli jthm i 3Ei2

bnuo€E ".flri 3E13VO3 ooq 3vsrl 11kw 21E'rI3ini 33fl3bi1f103 b311n1no3-1l&1oi1novno3

bobukx3 3111 no bn 51 tRi1iq 11 11iod iid1 1u (EQQI) iiAiH brIE 133E1

.1smi1o VI lo 1iliwp 3(11 ol 3biu a b3U od flO13131 iiil 3111 rnoil ejn3m1ri1ni

brIE I .0 i 5I Isirthq r1i 31dEFuv In3bn3qob 3111 E qqg fihiw fIOi3131 3,E1-11fl 3111 ioI

brIE I .0 31E ijiisi 3± 31dshEv ln3bn3q3b 3111 i YJ5IAVJ 11311W .Q i 3i12i1E12-l 3111

4$.V brIE .lS.0 vrh 31dEhBv irI3bn3q3b 3111 ei 3m0)ni 10 oL 3111 11311w briE

1u I0000.0 wol3d 11 31E i1E1-1 3(11 no 3u1Ev-q nibnoqoiio 3ff!' .'(!3vIJ33q31

.'1rII1itI33fw briE 3mo)fli iol ifl3fflLfl1ni 3(11 lo 13WO 3Vi131b31q 10 3313b 1n3i3i11u £

rilod iol brIE rL11E3W lo a51LJ.E3ffl 351111 lIE iol () IIOIIEIJpO lo 31Effli13 1110 101 111JZ3M

brIE qqj 3(11 no a1n3i)Il13o3 3rIT .E 3IdET th b31n3231q 3113 1thEtI33nu lo 31U2E3ffl

£ nivEr1 AJV 1111w r1jL63w lo uam su1i lIE iol 1nE3iIini2 '(1r1ir1 31E frfl31 YJSIAVJ

.(LsOQQI) nBie bns noal*I a vods beib abifls 3i1i 01 ffoiJibb nI 3rD riiiw 'ç)ff332iafl03 iol 331ñi )o noi€13v )Iah 3VJ1E131 lo 1fl3i3fl1303 £ b3mhJE 3W ,qqj fIiJ3[rI1fl03 n1

llEn3ism iOn 313W i1tJ31 IE3hiqffl3 orli ; brm b aJn3i3flho3 beth oii 3W . bcm I o1th3T ni aiLui noiJi1umi Jfl313Thb

Page 30: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

3c11 lo 33n&i1ini3 1iil2ilEl2 3rIT OWTYI 10 WHT4HT4 nuli in3ii113o l3wol i&lwomo

£ lol bnE 3vin15Iqrno3 iom mozd rll1E3w lo 5UJ23ffl 3ff) ai 23313fl! mi3i '1(IIEJ'I3)rIIJ

13imixo1qq lo xi mi YJ5IAVJ bn qqj 3r11 no 21n3i3111303 3(11 5IuaE3m fl)13w fl3vi

noi23151 bni iotho rbz3 (131w boisl5no3 s1c1ir1 o1z om o1dsnsv oor1T .

fiini Isupo

llEubivibni i 31iJ2S3 lOrIliOn Intl bnil b3bul3ni 515 stuasom thod rbirlw ni (b3lloqsI ion)

ogasi oth nirliiw 113w i1 11nionog oth m131 ininrionu odi no 1n3i3fl1oo3 orfT .inn3flingi

i ofnoni lnonsml3q lo mdthso1 ocli no inoi3flI303 oriT . ban I o1dsT ni 2noiioibsiq 10

1sf!) oulnv on) ono (rnoil rnoloThb '1in iini ils iiis ban) lo o3xo flI 113w swth

4 ic1i rfuodliIA .3ilonllomorl oiow oiini omo3ni-ol-tlthow orIl Ii boi3oqxo 3d bluow

nibni1 L&i-xiqmo nommo odi cliw 2b1oxs ii Jobom lnoiioioorij iuo lo noiisloiv £ ,nb1noq

.rlilnow lo ainuoms iorlirL s1o1snoirioqoiqib blonl omoni lnonsrrrloq cfirl cfliw olqooq 1sf!)

.o1dius1q o1s SIS 2rtoio131 odli iii olnhsvo3 lOnllo onli no ainoioflIoo3 ouT

i WV1 ban W8IMHT4 no ogs lo 133113 lsiflsq orIi in!si133nu ban OrrIO3nI 101 ni1IoijnoD

.ioilsoiorb oVilson 1iuiik bris 2O!-bim itocf) &)531 'or1i luau thloulowocl iol ovitioq

ob ns± nrno1 biupil 'iov iii ii lo zo1 blorl lud ,dllzow siom 3151umu335 b1or1oworf boFnsM

1si11Js12 or!) ud rhInow o1 vd 01 bnsi noiblirb utliw th1or1ouoH .th1odouorl boinsmnu

.ovi2nor!olqcno3 siom 2OfuIo3od rlilsow lo SILJSOm 3(11 25 23n1133b 133113 eidi lo 33nn3iuin12

omorn iol ni11oiinoD .cfjlsow lo 2JovoI ior1id vsd iidw i bsonl oil) 1131(1 w ni thlorlowoH

bloc! O2uorf 10 bsorl olsmol £ nivnH lo dlilnow no 333113 oil o1dthmv 3ir1qs10m3b 13(110 ban

.OIOS moll 1iioi11ib I1an3i1iniaai i noiul3xo or!) d boil11nobi 11s3rIJomono33 i noi1s3i1i3oq 2oldsnsv 1s1n3fnIJ1)ni iuO

bisbnsie us o jv3I 1n3313q odi is ibiisbAomod lo id1oq'(d hun 3d1 bbz aJei IisboiH° Jeudo1-ii3iiasboo13J3d 515 1on3

8

Page 31: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

.'1riisiiorw no f1i1Iw lo noi311 1i moil 23Idsru3v Ii2ubni bn. noijubo j1oi1Equ3o lo

ililsow iol iwoq viiiboiq on 3vJr1 2IrIm1rIi2ni di i&1i mua noii3ilI2oi rioi bx 2idT

.inthtiorw rliiw bn mo3fli JnnrrrI3q lo 13v31 3(11 illiw noiiEI5rio3 iir1i rIuoir1i ri&Ii 13(110

b-rnbni 3± nim1oh3q d 2i23r1Ioqf1 llun 21111 i31 oW

.o1d1 3111 lo nmuIo3 i1 orli ni bonoqoi 5th 211uoi ;(8Q1) fl32IIEH moil 1231 fIO113I1i)fl3bi13VO

ilnow ion 1ioi noi1w md jovol ino3loq oiIi m lobom oi11 iooi ioi (110 3111 oob 32IZ) On iii

lo 25IU2E3 iliod iol lovol 1non3q 01 oi1i is bo1oL3i 21 lobom orli oldtthsv mnobnoqob 3± 21

.'Inis3ionu

rhiw 2bIorlowouI ObuI3ni ol bobnolxo 21 oIqms2 3111 rir1w 2iIIJ25I 3(11 21n3231q .l oldsT

oih lo bno orh d E nsrti ognuo 11112 oorh .o.i) 18Q1 iii quo os -1 3111 fll 2bsorl

1rIthfl33nu 10 siusom 3d lo Its no 2315mi123 1rI3ii113o3 r1T .(V8QI iii boFioq oIqms2

rniolioq 21231 010 od iovowoH Jni1ingi2 lls3i12i1s12 1u1id siom si bns 325313111

dod io1 1n3313q 01 bns I noowiod 2IovOI o3ns3i1ini2 is ni1ojsi o2iow 1ds1obi2rio3

mnobnoqob o± 21 WflVIHT4 nr1w 1n0 .WM bns AJV rbod iol ifuEt133nU lo 23111253ffl

.Iovol mnooloq (131 3111 is 1231 (110 3111 zasq lobom orb 2oob oldshsv

lo 23eIsns orli no bo2sd boi3oqxo od bluow 113111 moilsq 3111 'I1ox 315 21I1J231 323f1T

loiornElsq oldiauslq iol isrim worl2 or1T .(Qq1) bits HomsD bns (QQ1) IIoTSD

21 Inorflolilsx limnu ioivsilod nivsa I3Oi2-13111Jd ni osgno 111w 2b10f132u0f1 ,23u15v

n1v132 313 olil lsnoiiibsli oom 01 iovo 1131iw2 111w nod bns sws tso' 1 1oismixoiqqs

bIodo2uorl r1i noilw 15111 wOrl2 0215 r1T .inomsiii5i oiolod boiloq niciismoi orh iii loivl3llod

iois1 s 231s13rI3 ithst133nu 311103111 ni on5r13 novig £ oasr1q bo12-loIIrJd od ni Ion 2i

°W' oasr1q fl1v52 bo12-1311ud 3111 nhub lsrli 2worI2 (QQ1) IIonsD .32r1oq231 fl!V52

Page 32: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

o± bn. 'inithonu omoni lo osigob bnB oiuiin ofli d 1hfimhq bonlimolob i thIiow

omonx lo oliIoiq boioqxo ofli oi oviii2no 13v ion i briE noI2lOvE !zh 3vilEI5I lo in3i31TI3O

oo) rIoiiE3ubO bnB iiubni noriEqu33o d aohsv omorii lo olilolq 3 ofil owioa .rliwoig

isril lobom o13' oh! orb ((tQQ1) 1IorisD bns (OQQI) rbloW bns r1cpuM oIqrnsxo iol

Ino1i2 brioqob 01 irfuo grnvs 113(11 oiIqmi oasrlq iolsl orb ni loivEfiod gthvs ohoioffIsrb

eoldsnsv oo± lo noiisloi orli d boiuiqs ion sw rn noiisubo bus Ii2ubni nO1iCqLJ33O no

IIoTIED lo 2ithrts orb wr1T .iniEi133nu OfflO3ffl 01 10 OrfIO3fII iriorisfrnoq ho lovol orb 01

molt lovofbiiw2 orb oiolod th!orloworl iol iopi ion b1uor1 ioi 010 orb isfil oilqmi (Q(�1)

3133-31i1 oril ui i3m1Jno3 iol ioLoi bluorl2 hid nivs 313'3-o1i1 Isnoilibsil 01 boi-1oh1ud

b3i3i11o1 o1s ow ioi ior1ii1 £ A A bus 2oIdsT Iii bolidirixo rnoflsq 3± I13sxo--oa&1q

novo briuol io1 010 orb b313oqx3 s bns os iobriu thIorlo2uorl 01 o1qms orli

ono 101 iqo3xo .O ovods oiow ou1sv-q ils) oldsT ui nsrb noiis3fli3oq22im ho onobivo

'.bonsrb rbum ion 513W oismflo inOi3lhIoO3 orb bus (11.O asw d3irlw

?%c\O?t\O

'lBnothis3o1q £ ho o3noiaixo orb 101 O3nobivo bi!o2 obivoiq E oldsT th oismi1o ouT

omo3rli siom 03131 orlw abIorIo2uorl 23ir1qfr1omob 13(110 bus os iol gnuLlollno3 ;oviiom thvs

nibnfl ui i1ui Is3itoloofb orb iomm riibnfl Ishiqmo oriT .rlilsow oiom blorl iniE11o3rw

.rblsow iol YJSIAVJ bus qqai lo iowoq ovii3ibolq orb noowiod o3noloThb obull

ow isrb o diLRow oviii2oq rbiw 2blodoauorl 01 o1qms iuo 13111201 ow ,ovods bolon 2A

513W 21nL511211o3 iibiupiI r1uorfi1A .o!dshsv inobnoqob 1110 is rbLBow lo o1 odi oau f153

odi nbb3i 02 ii1i ui bo3lolno 1bigh o od ion "sm 'od1 ,Iobom Jsiioioorb orb th bo2oqmi

310 bnal &O vods Us u1sv-q 10 bilE Ol oth oi b3bhin iodflilI i Iqmi 3d3 ni1W .31flE2 3di luodfi boriismoi nisg 3iEmii23 ifl3bfft3o3

Page 33: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

1o oi rioq3l orlw b1orI3wod 1o l3drnun 1113(112 3111 31qff1132 3(11 moil 23113111mi13 (111133w lo o1

ol i iiiI 3rtT .m3ldolq noilniri1 £ 11zu2 brnsol13 vw owl 3111 31311T .rhLw 3VilZ3f1

r1i imithm ol 2b0r113m noi1Emi1 I2udol no 131 brI11 213v31 flu (lOX 3131 3(11 3113mu123

3311mi123 oT .3vhibbs 2i 11(131 1T13 3(11 113111 riO 1qmu2213 3lErIqolqqErIi 3(11 b 233f13LJ32flO3

b3i3ib3lq 3111 fll2U) 213v31 rü () noiJ11up3 lo 2noi3131 n13ib3m (151 3W f10I1J3LJp3 (113 (13112

3rfF .(noiii 1EU2 3211 31332 fii1 £ moil 1nithnu brxs 3ffl03fl1 lo 13v31 3(11 lo 231111W

W14 bnB WHI4HT4 3(11 111 13v31 1113313q 1 3(11 15 lflfl1fli2 11112 313W 2m131 1nIEJ133fI1J

bns qqH noi 5I31 AJV 3r11 lii 213v31 1n3313q 01 briE cr11 Is bull 2flOI223131

.(13vi133q231 YJ51AVJ

rbirlw ni lobom q312-owl i 31smiJ23 01 2i noils3nrnI 3(11 3IEbomrno33s 01 sw bno332 A

ei noitsupo (11153w 3(11 flu ions 3(11 lo 3iJI13v b3133qx3 3111 riO noilsz)nirIl 3r11 lo 133113 3(13

3(11 ni2U .rliIs3w 3vxn2oqnon nthoq31 lo 1i1ictsdo1q 3(11 r1i13ib31q d iol b31n11o335

3213Vf1i 3(11 iol flu1fI3mU1l2fIi (13111 ball 3vili2oq w ((1153w 13(113(1w l3ib3lq 01 2ln3cnlrIiani

3(11 (11 2f1fl31 1f11s1133f1U 3f1T .2noi223131 nsib3m 3(11 01 21111231 151im12 b3b13i' oUSI 2IliM

03 2311313111303 15311113b1 12om113 bllfl bns 1fl13)fl1flgi2 11112 313W 2flO1223131 WT4 bns WHT4HVI

d b33ub31 313W 2fl0i2231g31 AJV 3(11 (II (JfltOh133mJ (10 2.10313111303 311T . 31(1ST th 320(11

3111 Ino 113 1fIE3i1i11i2 HE3i12i1512 WOlf 313W briE 3IdST ru 320(11 01 3v115131 1r13313q iuods

.13V31 103313q 01

¶ifliHi19)fltJ 29J 919W 319fIT li 3nffl1D 1Df119W bluoW woH .V

3IdsT 111 1fIiSfl33f1U 3m03n1 01 (11153w lo iiV11i2(I32 3111 lo 2.315m!123 3fll3ffiOflO3O 3(IT

(11153W 31Eg31,gE 3111 ff0 1fI151133u1U 3mo3nl lo i3sqrm 3(11 3(11ffl1313b 01 b32.IJ 3d WOfi E

bns 153113103(11 3(11 rliod th ,311115131i1 nivs2 (1BrI0i1us331q nh121x3 3(11 lo 1aoM .noiludhieib

Page 34: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

d iiv S (Ioi1LI331q lo 33rIBnoqmi r1i at norh art bnii 1&hiqm3 3(11

noiJDxb5Iq odi (11kw oi 01 i 'iriisrirw moni n1w woiJñbiq '13borrI i gnrisqmo

id1 i&li 3v3113d 3W .s1i1i iniqi '(Iduo1 01 nhi 3uLv ol io i 'initioznu n3rlw

.31uifn3fl1 1E3IJ31o3r11 1i bn IE3hiqrrr3 d1 (1lod ioI 3lEnqolqqEni i dooiqq

ois 32uJ33d nifl *ii3mono 3r11 lii woidub 21 o13 ol R!isJ13nu rIifl3

3r11 moil 13(111131 3r1T .21 LiEb 11 ni b3113mixo1qq13 nvo io b3v132do 133fl 21 'Oni13fl&nu

311 fbirlw 2noilBup3 novH .i Ii 3i3iq 2231 3(11 b13m 21 fIoi133o1q £ 113(11 31qm132 ni1J$miJ23

ln13v3131 3(11 lo noisi i 3dh3b at bk13 n3rlw 210113 3m1 1m n oIqrn132 ni 113w '(13V

.b3113mi323 w l3bom 3(11 rbirfw m noio1 3111 moil wI 33B2

3w1333d o2h13 oix ol '1ni13r133nu nifl3z diiw m3ldolq 3(11 (51U31313111 1133133103(11 3(13 uI

loiv13rI3d 31131311kb sf1133i1lb ol b1331 (1133 slni11znu b tnuom13 1113m2 nv lo 33ff3231 3(11

311312 01 'w ior1ionA .I3bom 1fI3113viup3-sithsfl33 10 ifl113t133 £ moil a2iTB 113111w 113(11 n13rll

01 013 mon 230 '0nhJ31133flU 213 lOiVllfl3d (11 (11IJf1i1fI0321b od ri 513111 113111 21 inioq 2irb

251332 ii ,b3isnimiI3 sIoi1jno 3d 13v311 n '1niR1133nu '1iJthi ui th2 .O<3 11131(12 3mo2

lud) 1113512 lo noJqmu22E 3(11 l3bcuJ l3bom 3(11 lo 2noJ3ib3lq 3111 3l13fflO3 01 ol13rIqolqqE siom

.'1nuJ3fl5)nu lo 21flU0m13 1133iqs1 l3bflU 2floii3ib3lq 231 01 irnsfl33nu lo 21nuom13 (31qm132-rli

lo noiludiii2ib 3113 3lzhJmi2 ol I3bom lE3fliqmO 3113 3W 01 5101313(11 21 1l3solqqs luO

1ni13i1o3r1u lo lnuom13 j113m2 di b33131 2bIod32IJoft 1113 1 li13vsiq bluow 113111 1111133w

2fl0i223131 3E12-bfl0332 3rlT .b33131 HSUi3E '3f11 1fli13i133nu 1o inuom13 3111 lo bB12ni

i 31qnwx3 bmbffsi A .iDo b1113 (Q1 QQt) llon) ,(Q8QI) 23b1 d tsist1qm nd d inioq 2if1T (inifl33 333h3q n ol bebb13 i boh3q in3up3adu vr3v3 ni oi 03 niog 3mo)ni lo s1i1icJBc1cnq snii 13 n3dw vn 111w Juct S(111i6n33 Jhq bnu 1Lv13od wcinod Iliw rnmunoD .3lfI3iiEqmi bnE JiLi1u A5I5ID illiw Iobom

.SJWRJ133nU 10 3q5(J 2ith rijiw wonod

Page 35: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

:bIor1owoc1 ths3 io1 noiiEup3 cIlth3w £ 31Bng orli griiu C OLdET lu b31n331q

+ + (9)oI + + = ('H)aol ()

n31311ib r1j as b3thI3b 1v 21fl3 noiimu13 3111 u&3d 'I13x3 Ji1 flOiiEUp3 3rIT

o1qmo w O1ub3o1q odT .3u1Ev In 3± bn uLiIfi3w go! lo oufsv b3lzib3iq odi 1133w13d

I1i lo u1v 3(11 gnivi31 31111w 1NRH iol 'CJq35J 3u1, ,1113m2 1r1B12ruo3 £ 2311flh12du2 '1313m

2i111 dfl13w cf3um won 231iibnui 5wb33oIq 2irlT 3111 231dihEv in3brl3q3bni l3rlio

1&)13113b1 ivrirfjo 3iw ii iid 'qqH5I d civig iow 1niBnxIu au Ii bloil bluow blorbauod

n111E3w o 5IU213f11 wnu £ 13u112no3 w ,ai isriT .(v rrrioi ifl3 3111 lo 3uIsv dJ gnibuI3ni)

:isrIi fI3uJa 1w

- - (I)o1 = (*')f (V)

qu gnhisg5iggs d b3vi13b od 113111 ns noiiudhi2ib rllIs3w 3isg3ggs 3111 luods anoiisi1qmI

.abIod3auol1 thubivibrii 3(13 Ifs io au1sv b3Is!umia 323rD

th b3vado 1qqasi lo 3uIsv muminim 3111 3(1 bluow *qqj iol 3310(13 3Idiaaoq 3110

thiw b3iuag3m ai b1or1ouoc1 1subivibm 'ris io1 1H15I isril losi 3111 u3v3WoH .3IqfflJla 3111

ol ion bnoqarioo 1dsdoiq ifiw olqmsa icD ni 3U15v 1suioz muminim 3113 isrIl a3IIqml 10T13

3111 rnorlw iol 31103(1102 oi Jud 'inisflonu lo Inuoms Ilsnna £ nbua bsrl 11su1os onlw 3f103ffl02

3(11 3211 3w b312nI .Ovflsg3rI bnus 3g151 1fs133qa3 asw 1niRfl3z)nu idl ioii sist lru3muni2ni 3(13 110 qqg lo fl012251g31 ogsia-iaiil 3(11 mon 1qqai lo 3U15V' itsic mumiruim

ifl15t133flU 23f1O1(13V3 132 01 21 in3mrI3qx3 Isuiq3orIoo 3(13 ,uIsv b3ioib3lq 3111 gnxau fl .132

.YJ$IAVJ bu 3w 11311w illmia w a1Iui noirnlumia 3u1T

.tJbia31 VI 3111 loll 3111 th ;noi3igi uIJ lo bnoD3e 3th moil Isubi3I 3113 3111 1V 33dT'

CC

Page 36: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

miumrnw cnj isnc i ouX bcLccul o ipe unuiurnw bLcqicfcq iqnc o, 1Ebb'm,cJ?t u x o rpc piic ctccr o 2cWu nuccunur) o wc W!U!WflW bo'c isjnc' iJont uJbic ipcuq ,oz. fpr2 LGJ2OU G cmnc o wcpcc euu cAeL)ouc nucci u) o pe wuuinw btcqcrcq AiJnc a juio

bi,cnwnpX pc u o,ccc2rmJs1c o pc mpunw oni o nuccuur) jccq p) iAouc ! w°wbjc

iuquuqnffj pon2GpoJq2 i cpucq pA fC I.cqncfou o nuccLufA' jpc bLocGqnLQ 9L

Ipe JJflLC TAC LbpcJ qCbictiOlJ o JJOM UJflCJJ fpC jOLUJJUJ O MC9JIJJ O

upi uq pJJ, LC fO fC ITJ'

fpiLq JfJLC bcLccuf LC fO 1C TJq IU tJJC jUJ 1I1LG pJ O IJJC boiiu LG fo fJJC

iu fC coi TO bcLccuf oj JQ boiu jic fo tpc upf o fJJG OLUJ qi2fupfwoiJ u fpc

LUJUHJJIIIJJ bwqcGq AjnG o Jbb) COU2Cd11CUfJA CAGLAOUG2 McJfp pojqu LG Lcqnccq

EACIOUC2 f1UCCI4IJfA p pcu LGflCG (cxccbf ipc poncpojq JLcqA pq fJJC

'U ipc mbjc j wnjcq iicqi bo,u J!c o pc IGU oj, fC cu1J MGf qi2fupnnou'

In IJJC ,JL2f 1J(ILG MCLC Jf i 2GJ GdflJ fo rpc U.JuuJ(1w bLcqicfGq Af1Q O J{Ebb'

MGU J�Ebb' 2 2Cf fO tJJC CJJO2GU AJ11G O (i'c Jo(M') In GdmflTfIOU (i)).

SCWJ MC9J1JJ uq M' iuqiCfG fJJC iwflJfCq AJ11G O IJJC JO O MCJfJJ J,OL ff poncpojq

fpc bccupjc LIIJJqIJ j,ox ponpojq in tpc tuic MGJf i' iuqrcc fG jo o

boiu LG bjoucq 9L ccp poncpojq in pc 2uJbJG: (Mb') cuq (M1 b') MGLG b'

fJJC UJIC qi2fUprifiOU o Io(iiiiI4BM) TOL ccp 0T, OfIL Of11 AjflC OI J�Ebb bCC!UCJA fMO

hJfILC i-q bjot fG 2JwnpuCq AiJflC O fjJC jo(J HMBW) WC2flLGO MCJfjJ IUf

qp4pnfiou'

LC2flJI MGU ffBbS i 2C1 fo pc jjp tp uq jrp bcLccuuJs o ipc bLcqicfcq I{Ebb

TUCOUJG fIIJCCW1infA' y LGCLGUCG boiu MC jo imnJfG tpc MCJf qifupnriou fp,t

WP1C JuqnfLA pIp cqncou 2CCIILC occnbiiou Gfc' ff bI.Gqict JOM Ai1flC oj

fjJG AJfJC fpif MOfIJ C bLGqicfcq OL 2OUJGOIJC MIfp couJprnfou Oj, CjJLCfGufiC ncp

Page 37: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

i 13v01 bIoll3wod ofli 113 nEth) di r1iIEw 3i133x no i11o 3(11 f1iiE1tJ3IE

b3113Iumi ii norli 1w sd novi i (r1iIw)go1 b3i13Iumia eb!orbwo(1 d3i Ii :bwio1idii1

10 mu 3th d flovig noili ai d1Isw 31 3113 bis1umi2 .(*7w)qxo d nvig i fLth33w lo 13v31

tfo iol 3Ld13T ni nwof1 fl13 11un 3r1T .b1or1ouod Isubivibth d1 lo r11liw b3iE1umi 3(11

bLor1uor1 'iovo gni3ubi 113± wor1a woi iifl 3rlT .di1w lo ho3i& 331(11 d1 lo

QE d biupil v 331 233ub51 3u113v b31ib3-Iq muninim 3r11 ol ini13tI33nIJ

N 'd ilnow in Isioi bn13 in33q ÔI d 3niud-non grikuo(1-non 1nozuz3q

rhirlw ni noi1131umi iol a1uoi rf1 1n3z51q 31d131 di lo woi ir1i ix3n ouT .lnoz)loq

.u1sv boi3ibolq '1qqj lo o1iJn3313q bni iLj uioi i± oi i i *qq35J

iol (111133w no 1ni13i1o3nu omo3ni lo 13o113 3(11 fI33fI03 noi1E1umi Isnil mO

iorllorlw iol noil3ib5lq 1s3U5103f11 O(1T .ioo1& omo3ni lnon13rn-Ioq in3IoThb ni thlorloworl

i b1or1ouou1 omo3ni iowol io iodir1 iol in13rioqmi oiom od b1uor1 \1nRtI33fIu omo3ni

iomino inobuiq 1s± nid1omoa i \lrlu3oeni 1nomo1qmo brm ow 3u1333a .wouidm13

iowol ov13rI 01 bno bluow 211b12 oom ulliw thlorlo2uorl 113± 133qx3 ow biov13 01 q bluow

o1qmsxo -iol xibnoqqA 3± ni nworl2 aA .23Bw ir1ir1 3v1311 '3d1 213 12uj '1nFEtI33nuJ 3ITIOZ)fli

.lnomnEnE lsnoii133ubo nioni illiw onikob YJSIAVJ brI13 qqj Ic) 23u113v 31313V13 cr11

OfflO3fli olom 1q33313 ol niHiw ois oriw 2lohow 113(11 o1d13vio3no o1 i Ii bn13d iodio odi nO

113up3 lo oor1i oi 3vil13131 11311f1313Thb nii noqrno £ 213 .ozw ir(ir1 bisq oi 'ini13t1onu

iiodi d liollo 13l133i ozubrii ol iqmons sm 2rrniI ,11snoiiibbA .ni111wnu oi oriw iiIid13

iii 11u231 bluo3 omorb2 s r13u2 1u1223xu2 II JuqlLro 01 noi1132noqmo iiu1i ni'1 d 23oo1qm3

.'1nith33nu orno3ni 1oiE31 bn13 2313W 13(11(1

3(11 d) boiBmil2o 21113(11 rillsow lo lnuom13 orb 23iEILJ3lE o1dT lo 13n13q iifl oriT

Page 38: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

di lo 3Lizob rb& iii Iqoq iol niv inoiuzoiq ol 3ub d o (vodz bdiib o1ub3o1q

rIiIBw lo noifloq iuI £ iol inuox niv IsnoitJ33Iq .noiiudhiib 3mo3ni in3rthlTn3q

3r1i lo dithw 3rD lo 11&1 ndi iom iol nhinJox 3Ii33b 31TIO)f1! 13w01 cdli ni oIqo3q ioI

3moni Jn3nfrn3q 3rD lo 11J$rI l3woI r1i qu gnib3o1 .31i33b monod rli ni bIor1iior1

3nihb 1ibE3i viiom unoiiuE3mq oi 31Jb r!J1iw lo noirloqrnq 3(11 jioiludhi2ib

s rliod lo rrnol di ni noiin3qmo3 ir1irL i3rD Ii !1th ii diiw 3Iqooq fl$rIi niiu iom 3mozd ioi1 iorf1o th .3moni lo noiiudhiib nith3 iom £ bns 13v31 irLir1

fLlI63w lo inonoqmo3 'snoiluE331q r1i noiiudhtaib 3moni r1i lo 1Ir1 ioqqu 3f11 flu inirioqmi

.r111.w lo 31U2E3 rn 31i33b d rrionsq iib on al i3r1i md 1!i1 l3woI 3rD ni III3(1J l3Ithma ai

noiaubnoD .IV

JrIBv3I3I 3d1 lo I[ aibodm3 iuli iniflnu lo iuam 3lqmia i lo 33n3ad 3rlT

iodmr1w lo I&i lB3hiqm3 b3uE1q a&1 noiiudhiaib 3mo3ni 3iJadoo1a £ lo iar13i3S1r!3

lo noiJudnino mnnoqmi nA .nonomon3flq mnEtloqmi '!I&imono33 ri 2! gniva isnoi1u5iq

niva lo Lobom bola-1311ud £ om nib1o3 3vrbd al3rnuano3 Ii izrli worla ol i iqq airli

i311 lo oI f1i f133w13d qir1anoii15i 3rD aI3orIa omoni lo anoiiudiiiaib o1diwifq o1 briE

3mooni lo 5IU2E3 3d1 n3rlw iiniJ sI3iEmixo1qqs od bluoda 1niE1I33nu rnorn bn. rhIE3w

muffn31 (1EfloxnJE35Iq inthviupH 3vi1E135! (EOQQI) allEdmi)1 rfii3 no b3aEd 21 inthfl33nu

1sqi3nnq iuO .(YJ5IAVJ) omo3ni 10 o1 di lo nEhv 3dm lo o1 di io (tNa$1)

om b3iEfi sImrmi1inia briE I3vimiaoq b33bni 5is anibIor1 rlJIE3w lEn ai nibni1 3hiomonoz3

YJ5LAVJ 3(11 bni qqH orD cllod briE rfmJow lo aoiuaom auohEv iol inisfl3nu omo3nx

.s(1thEflonu lo 23iu2E3ffl

lElol lo mnoioq Iomimixoiqqs lErli 1a3u2 Iobocn 3rlJofflOflO3o 3(11 lo anoiiEIumia

Page 39: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

.3.X

GGU GXbJTCJfJA 1G2tcq

uJoqGJ /A}JO2G GWbIL1Cj iwbjJct1ou2 1,0L fJJG LGJtJOIJJJIb pctticcu MGJtJJ 9uq aucGLI9TutA pq

tJJG0LGtiC1J uq pc cwbiucj bbLocpG2 UJGUfl0UG iu IJJG utI.oqnctou pA f12U fJJGOLGtCJ

LG211J12 OL COU2IIUJGL2 fJIJGL tG G 0 Ø fl112 ionjq COU2fItfIfG bobci wcjqiu o pc

b91uJcfcL A9JflG2 tJJt GIJGLtG pflIjGL-2t0CJC 21A1U pGJrnAIOL COU2!2tGUI MitJJ OflL cwb1uc9f

bcqournu 2flhJf1J1t!OU2 JIJCG tJJO2G 0 JC1IJUGL uq GjG2 () par fluqGi.

t0rJ MGffJtJJ Ui4pflWpJG to 1IIJCG1t1JtA OL to qqJpLGUtJ !IJ nucGLrpuA CLO22 p0f12GJJ0Jq2 pA

CAcIG LGrILGWGJJt 21AIU tpGLG1,tGL y Utf1LJ GXtGU2IOU MOfIJq p to G2iiUJtG IJJQ bLoboWou o

GIJG ill fjGL-2t0C 2AJ1J pGpAT0L mull onuq iG () uq 21AtCJJ OAGL to tLqtouj J1G

bt.uiGtGutiou 01, tpG JI1,G CACJG uJOqGJ nuqcL IIUCG.tUtA Mprnp uibjc tJJt COU2IIUJGL2

LG2flJt2 (iiq t02G o u.ojj (Too) cojj uq w/cjc (io)) 9tG COU21tGUt MItIJ

bobrijtiou) qrnr cu pc rrupnrcq to bLcccnh!ouLA 2ATU pGpAioU HOMGAGL 01K GWb!i4CJ

dnc2fIou O1, tJJG bLoboWou 0T tpG MGfJt 01, COJJ2IIUJGL2 OAGL G (ot. O1 tJG GU1!LG

yu n.uboi.wut jUJWt!OU O 01K bbL0iCJJ 0G2 uor qir.ccrjA qqs tpc

1,LCrIOU 01, tOtJ 2gAIU2 OL IJJG pOII2GJJOJq2 MIIJJ tJJG JO/AGt bGr.uJiucuf UCOwG

woqGLtGJA flJdiiq 22Gf2 2 2IJJ1Jj JG J20 uq tJJt bLGCnt0JJfLA 2A!U2 COU2ftfltG jLGL

bGLpb2 2np2ufirJ 2bGJJ2 o mJGuJbJoAwGur--cowbLcq to MpJCp tpc C02t oj fldnqru

2flG2f2 tJJt tJJG pnjJc O bLccnrrouLA 2A!IJ GX12t2 to unw LJ2t LGJ1t1AGJA J9IG 2pocJc--

jidmq ffGf2 rpu o uou-ponu Uou-pfJ2UG22 MGt i ttLPfiWPJG to bLscrnfozrnI.A 2AU

nuccLrgiuA rjrnt 20WQ poricpojq2 CG cowbsq 'itp otpGL2 OIIL juqu tpr JG22 o AGLA

p0f1GpOjq2 lu 01K mbJG LG pjq i bLGcnt!ou U2t tJJG 2A2rGLUt!CJIA LGtGL

UGI Th0Lt uq o uou-JJOfl2Ju uou-pn2mG22 ijrp uq ij bGLCGuI oj AGLA drnq 22Gt2 o tpc

Page 40: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

couqcuu tPG LOJO 0 bLccintiouLA /u

qccpucq 01. Mt cacci nucIJJbJoAuJcIu 1u2rn.9UcG p92 ou C0U11UJGL pcpA!oL--M!tponr

ouonjA qqLc !mboLr9ut dn02fJou--2ncp 92 MJJA tpc bcL2ouJ 2ffAU LtC U fJJ0 fl2 92

tp9U fPG UffJ?t!CJJA tLffCWJG CGLW1JtA cdrnAJcut woqsj it bbc912 tpt t uot bopjc to

witpow&ticj bbi tn oj uJoqcj /iitp LGJJ2tJC tLctwciu2 oj fIUCOLt IJA ! 11101.0 CfIIJJGL2OUJC

bbccL to po u iurqGdnfo qocubtiou oj po C0U(1WCL ctnrjjA pcpnc /piJc fpc

IJrnCLOGC0UOIJJJC flJq IJJTCLOCCOUOIJJIC 9L092 JJJO CGLtiUtA cdniiqcut woqcj ucLo92iuJX

2A1U pcpAJ0L 9U nuqwcuij to nuqoI2f9uqu COu2fIWbtOIJ 9uq IqU u poqJ

ccouoiuicsjjX wboi.tiut tpc? potci. ipo otiqu couun nucoi.wnuA rnq bLccrlouA

JA0LG pLoqJA GCfl20 OfIL LGfljt2 bLoiqqo qricct GAqcuco tpt bLcccnJoirni.A 2rArng 2

Page 41: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

,o \o'. ci itn ".niv g5IggA brt Ii5I iis13noibI b3luarrinU" oi51 2 FigiiA 8ô-Q?.ô :(iQ1) O1

:iU 3111 nEr1l ioW ofi nl3D 5IuD 3riT" .ioiiEI &ii5I brlB .A bivCJ ,nrlot brnjofl .VEI .on iqE ribhoW 1inrbT ".31dEi1V !iin3inuflnI nibio5I ohT IInoi1uED A

.?I $13ff4 :.aBM 3gbhdmED

o14, \o iio\. ".nivs ' oiiusiq bn Is.uq noiiqmunoD" .1 obiM oIJdD .1-I.1 :(OQ1)

i1s$II\ ".noili11umu33A iLi1iW iA bitE s1r1itx33nU 2nucrrEH" .1V8-Q8 :(IQQI) 18 .cis1

3imorIoz3oDEM mo :niv lo sCIo3rIT bo1-oTIufl 3rlT" .U r1qoithdD 1Ion) .Ei-1 QQ1) .on ñA tow to vck ziooia ".3rn3biv

.iqhunEM ".ir1ioqH 3mo3rlI in3nsfm3\3bD 1iJ 3111 bitE nivE2 koi2 1311uH" .Q?1 3n111. b1EoH i-51 thl3b&1

't,o cnto\.. iii "VrioiiqmunoD in5nuD 13311A 3mo3111 iuiu1 oU woH" .8M-I1I :(IQf) QOI .oto

.iqfl3urtEM ".rtiIW iBnoinJEo3iq lo oiu1T4 311T" A3iwrn .A w3lbnA bru, 2QQI IriqA bisofl n3o5I 1E13b3I

\\ok\c3 \wo\. ".onE1ur11 noiiqmu2noD lo ioT o1qmi A" .H MoI onE1fboD .VQ-VQ :(IQ1) Q

:rliIsoW lo iEmui1 'riu" .T4 231nn1 rrnioM brIE ;Ecnor1T 3 tiu1 ;.T blEr13151 ni1iuD b3iib3 \\'H \I Wrn?I \o iti tt ru ".1IIBIJ9 lo 111311122322A nA

.Q8QI 31q os3icD lo 1ii3viruU :oE3idD .oiT 2 ru313H bitE 3eqiJ 2 fl3do5l d ErIoiJ3-22oID 13 :in1Efl33ruU 3mo3nI ibnU thvs lBnoi1uE331q" .011111131EV ifI0fIEbIEU

.Q1-1 :(IQQI) E ".ithriA

I-11 I :(IQQI) Q .

iisoio ".iru1EflnoD '1ibiupiJ bitE nivE2" .2urIA ,rIoIE3U

•QQf 3q ii13vinTJ biolxO :biolxO %1u\) xcouo 'o cto\. ".idnBiI33nTJ iobriU itoziqmu&ioD" .onI JrtthIiboM bilE ,t ,thU

2-8O :(VQi)

Page 42: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

't0

o\ coio g (JQg): Q-f3cjuq F1Auc E 44irn uq fluCCI4iu1A: jpc jccn ouQ DUJIJ 1OL lIJ

£COUOC2 g (j): 305-3ànthpA iiu j uq jiui /jc 44EwbiucJ yc-EuJu2 bLOUJGII cs c\

uq b!q oj q1fI2fUJGuç4 ur12ctb JJJG flUJAGI2IfA o cuuAp9ugulncjJ2 b uq yiupouA witjr 44jjJc ocpic QLO/i oqGJ MJJ HGGLOGUGOfl VGU

I4BEL{1 JJ_____ • WuqLq J1J( AGL2JOU1, JCpUiCJ /JOLJqu bbCL uo ujpq

1A J,407401J4 JJ.1o cnc iuc cqrq pA r Ef/cJJ4 F iiq b /ill AOLJC: j______ - 41bLGCflf0uLA O1AG2 OL oJqu VGf2IS iu i cii rjcoc1t)

3403 wpqq I4BEg2 JÔÔOP_____ • 11bLGCflt!0U AIU uq fJJG ALIUJ bL0bGU!A O OIJIU11 OLJU bbGL U0

(TO): -yjwpj viic 4jccrntouX iqu rn 2WJ mJq lu tp r'G4 cscr g(j): 3Q-3j

_____ - 14bLccn!0uLA uqu uq ocj Iu2nuc41 oo•c 103

j (j): -jAGIfGL q cpq 1. b!° (cq) cWGCIU!OULA IAIOfA OL EXbJJ1JIU JuqiMqnJ uq VLGUG JqU44 p yJJJ H

ppq4 rc juu4 1oupu JUUGL iuq 2bpcu b cjqc 44JJJG jwboiucc oj

Ø (jg): ioo-jorHuu4 r- b 44r'LG nubic bLobGL1c o Qcu jcq jcoq o ouu E1!moL4

(jgg): 33-HSH2 J{OCLf E 44pUGI4IJJbOUJJ npwoIJ 'U C0U2ffWb0U oci owcci Ecoo)

• 4ELu!U flucGLf!u1A uq oLfpJio cpoic1 ,jun2cubc J�ouic: jiiuyoj itijA

bLGCiflf!OUQ AIU41 o\cnJ 'COiOC' 30 (Jô): 30-33Vno4 r'!4 JJ1JJ!O 1bbcJJ! iuq D9IGJG IIEUJ!U flUCGLfU1A uq

OL JCA VG2 JAO4UL) bbGL 1J0 330r uJp4qc A22 I4BE1{ TààIJUJGUOI4 DOfl1 /J uq yjwpjj4 j,pjc 4JXIIOU O jpo iUc01 uq 1JJG DCUJIJc1

Page 43: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

tT

o\ cotc j (jg):jqG2 tbpcu Ob!mJ Couwbf!oU MJJ fOCEC JucouJG: DGA!OU 1LOW CfUO

J2fLflUJGU12 1GCJJUTCT JOLpU bcL uo JT Wp4q yT: AJEI TôôfDOJ 1Jq 1UJ H 2OCJC 1pJ2UJIWGUfffJ A4PIG2 J{CLG2JOU MTfJJ J/JC

o\'joi ci cctocv (m): X-?10UfPW J{JJát JIJCOIJJG F! CJ C0U2flmb10U uq bLCC1i1!OUfl.A /iu11

JAJ1JfI2CUbf flUiAGLiA O CJJIIJ jg2pb!o IffPGM D y MOG OU JP212 O rpc bGL1JJUGIJf IIJC011 Hb0WG22 JU bJJJG! DWII

(j): g-jjJuqwo UL IkLPC EU.GC1 OJ flUCGLf1IUfA OU DGC!2!OU2I O coosc

jjtp: pibjictou O BflU.GL-2f0C1C ATUg AJUflCLIbr DTJWO1UJJ COHGG JfwllrnJe ULGM V •J.JJG r'wq OU.t BCIEAGGU bd112!OU JCJtp iuq OP b4AfG

jon.1 concv (j): -g'' IY"!q E 11dcIqir2 COU1L1U uq fJJG bCLUJIJGIJf IUC0WG HAbofpci2 o\

22GWGUf uncub cpnu p'w o jccpuojoAhOfGLP pUJG j bGI2OUI ATU pGp/4OL JJq KG!LGWGUf JCOUJG J,oqGJJJu: V

(IOp): j-jiyE21!WfOL uq i f-LfiO .NjJGU fG JU2fLfIIJJGIJI I b00L OUG O1 OWU22 Q

I4Gj2OIJ CPLIG If IJq ffCJJLq WL1 JuG qprUOU O pG PJ2tLflWGUJ MI11P!G2

LLObGLfJG O IJJG IA E2WOLII c oxusccs (1O): ôQ-MGJOIY CPLIG2 iuq J{icpLq L1 OUJG LflLIJJGL I�G2fl112 OU EXC 2UJJj 2WbJG

Page 44: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

xibn9qqA

toci oiii?i \U'?A (\.

b3viodo i&1i iUfl3 o jq 3r11 moil riwth 31qm 3r11 rIo boqmi ois noxi3ni231 'c1 b33nouflni '!ubnu ion V81 - 18Q1 bohq 31qfnf 3rD vo moni ni noiiuioufl rb rliiw b3iEnimuIo noiiEv1do lo dmun 3flT .&ioiiir1ii irIqE1om3b (bona1q 1dioq)

:o1di niwoIIo1 orb ni novi 51E 2oIdththv '31 ioI ou1v rtkim cI rn floii3hi31 rbii

lo iocImuT4 thlorlowoH griirIiEmo5I

lo iodmul4 bIor1oioH boithmi13 floii3fli2o5l oIqrnE2

Q& 18 o1qm 11&1

ôF4 E8V lo vxu I nornolqqim orb mcnl bIor1ouorI oM (3Iqmdu2 i1ovoq) iinrrnoqqO 3ifflOflO

OVE ni ô nirli ioriuo bEorI orb rliiw 2blorloworl oM I 8Q1

àV V8QI th n&li ioblo bEorI orb rLiiw thlorlo2uod oM

18Q1 cr1 O nrb ioblo bocL orb rbiw bIorIotor! o14

88F.1 tQ8 Its iol bor1 i 18Q1 ru blorlowod lo bsoH .V8I-I8Q1

VI EI in oma orb 21 blorlo2uorl 10 borL lo 2uiEia tsihM .V8QI-18Q1 iso Its

1Q1 I 18 18Q1 rui oiio1 ioctsl orb ni i blorloauorl lo bEOH .(borioqoi i noiisquo3o)

IôI I FE cr1 boiioqoi noiiubo bns ii2ubffi ntssimnoT4 .1 8Q1

81 I E 21E3 Its cr1 botioqoi LiEb omorui iod1 nkimruoM .V8I-I8QI

oIqm i± ou J3i1b ornoni no Ino bnoqob irIi ixol orb nirbiw 2o2stsrIE bn wolod 2oIdBi HA o2Is i £ oIdT cr1 nol O15I cbBo ni 2noiiri3&Io lo dmun oriT .2blorlowofl 8U I lo

.xibrioqqA 2icIi lo (P) rIofi3o2 cci boruilob ib rlilsow 10 iilidsLtsvi orb d bo13o11c

Page 45: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

fl

bGciJc G-1JC0UJG uq G-fIUCGLWiJJfA bL0UJG2occribuou A9upJG2 J2O UfGLCfG MJfp vc uq yG5 lo JJOM !OL occnbtiou-

GI.ATCG J/0LJCG2 0.1 T :noT

LUJJGI2 uq JUJJ fp0LGl2 ØJ -TôJObGLf!AG FPOLGL2 oJ: TXLX

CL12WGU 0.0ôCJG4CJ uq JG2 fl10LJCG12 if JØØ J';fjQ

AJUGL (2cJj-GwbJoAGq) o i -soiJUGI2 (uof GJJ-GwbJoAGq) o.oo I T•X

bL0T.G0UI uq jGcpuicj J0LJ(GI2 Ø•ØgQ ..3•g3g

OCCflbf!0U L0flb WEbbAIQU

WjJ'AAjG1JJ

uibJGbGLCCUI 0J

p) Juqic1oL AT4pJc JOL occnbou

K'q oj cpqqcu fluqGL c j 2wbJc WGU i j cJJJqLcIr

EGWJG 2GX LJqCU0L I JR o ponpojq pcq LG JGW9JG

IAP!IG ffCG iuqc1oL jg o porIcpojq pcq LG MJJIIG

,Lucq tjjuij 211fl2 uqico j 0 ponGpojq pciq LG uuJGq

VG

2dnG 01 QG ILl AGL2 wbjc WG1J !2 Q AGL2

AUPJG DG2CMbI!0U COWWGUf

v) lloncpojq cowbo2illou

ITUCGLWIUA uq bcLmmGuf IUCOUJG JJJGA 1LG

LPL0nP0n1 IJJG GUJbIUCJ GCfI0lJ MG UJJCG fIC 0 ¶1 G1 0 AUpJG 10 !U2ILflWGUI 0L !IJCOUJG

o\ zci

Page 46: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

hflPPC yquJJui2fLou OOQ -FOQà

bLOG220IrnJ uq cucc 0 IOJ 1Th8

EUCI4WWCU uq KCCLGt0U CIJCC? ØØ -flg ØØLGL20UJ GLAICC ØJQ

Bn2JUG 9uq KMU /qcG2 0• io: 3 IETUUCG IUfIL1JCGe uq KG1 EtG 0100 -fjjpojc uq Jcwij ji.q ØJJjjuboLfou col WIWC oJJ2 JJq flfJ!S 0088 -Q8 JOQ

ØØCOU2fLnCf!OU 0 Jt

U1J OOQX TJV4CnJULC EOL2fl.A E'P"J

uqn21iA QLonbKEithcu

FAVI�Xcu

1JJbJj,ciccu o

D) juqicoi AI4pjC2 0L iuqn2rLA

cc-iucomc ruq c-nucci.iuuA bLoUJcJJJG cqncqou A4JG? LG wjo ufcLCtcq MJf 1c/'G uq yG3 fO 9JJOM OL GqfICfJ0IJ-bGCJpC

20U1G yqAucGq Eq1c0U Ø Jf -O4 W8COJIG DL OOX TQJ JÔ8Q

2OIJJG C°II 14° DCLGG O.O8 -thô 3Ô38

HTJJ CJJO0J D!bJ0W oj -nix iwxô-J QLC OTO -Th8Q ÔRO

Ø- QLC2 OJT -8T 3Jqnctou Lonb KEBb FAVI�ITA uJb1G

G$JII SjGU bGLCIJ1 O

C) JuqrcoL A4pJG JOL cqncou

Page 47: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

cowbuou2 o u uJoon2JA cou2f!.ncfcq 9-wbJG Ju rpc o\ ciicipow iucowc nuccuA WGflLG CU pe cou2u.nc1cq AGU Ju fpG oIToMrn ipjc N!qJnubjc ou fGG WGflLC oi Mcjfp f9Jccu LOW fpG wbjc o j jg poncpojq oL

ucjnqc jjj,ij bjn pc uC cclniA TJ qJG WffJJ JJOUJG ¶!U rpc IJGf AJflC oJ LW suq

C) jO cr Joi.rp (IAJA)

cLcqrr ccLq 2WGUf JoIJ wcqcj 0!. JGJ IJJ2 uq jou LOW I4cuq Lc 2nprLcfcqAGp!cJG2 iucjnqJu ca12 fLf1CJ2 WOOL JJOWC2 ILJGL2 uq por Oc1ftq!U p9Jucc OU

pouc juq LGUfJ LC!J ctc uq woucA ocq ou juq COUfLC uq we UGf AJflG ojucjnqc jjy bjn tpc uc Asjnc oj LGJ cfte opc wu pc t.uiu 0UJC iucJnqru ccouq

B) j,ou-poniu M0u-Pn!uc fAGJfP (ii-wi)

pGCn2c fjJGA LC UOt LCbOcq cbLcJAC0thOLfJOU2 IJJ!1U19J iuq uq UJAG2WJCUI 1LfI2 1jU?' ricp 22Cf2 TJ Jff'Sf2 LC J0 icjnqcqqcbo2J O/CLUWGUt pouq 1LcnLA pijj 2LC o ocjc iu bnpjcjX pcqucjqc2 pjucc u cpccjau CCOflUf2 iiu2 cconui woucA mqccr nuq cc!.qcfc oj

v) AGQ dnq ircf (Ar'v)

1?AC O JJC bID JJJCA Lc:uJ2C fpLcc WC2flLG2 oj ticjp cou2pJIccq FLOW pc MGJ 2nbbJGwCu 0 fJJQ jg.J

JJJG !U2I1fIWGJJf Gt C0UJ12 OJ jJ we AL!pJG2 /cu !u (v) - (D) PoiAUJG2 (y) iuqcbeuqcui iiupjc ijou Mup bci.umcui ucowc uq ucowc nuccLf1ufA

JJJG ccouowcuc 2bccJUcfIou iu jjcpjc uq c poncpojq cowbo2ifiou

Page 48: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

) mbj LG2tLJCfJOU2 JU tG 2CE LQ U9JOOn2 to tpoc rn tpc b2ID qccupcq poAcIUCOUJ pon2GpoJq DOIJL ¶JUJOflIJI2 JOL fJJQ bID nu/ciptcq

) D°IT UJO1IU12 OL tpc CE MGPt to cconut OL fJJG OAcLfuJbJiug oj pip-i) vii qojji 9wonut2 ffLG IU LG1J Jgf qoJJ12

WA > 0 Jf3 T0XTQI

Loll 211JbJG I0Q T0Ti.W

2CE

MM > 0 f03Ohell mnbic LTN8

bIDWA

MHI4BJYI>0 TJQ3 QQQ2 J18f JO8tX

Ell IWbJG J0Q J0?ÔÔ JO?T0

CLJ.1}.IVBIA > 0 8Q0 IX00 T0?fEll mbjc joox? IJQ0J

b2ID

WII4BM

Ar'v>0 rt 'fOQ t8UoLII wbjc 130Q tXI08Q

2CL

Arv > 0 OO0 2105T

jnjj 2usbJc ioo oob21D

AFV

/jGq9U D1tOUJ4I1WGL OJ

JAGJfJJU tpc bID q BCE' Ø A2 ojq uq AOIJL

Page 49: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

4) J-2Wfl2iJC2 LG LGbOLIGq Ju - ___________________

) ['AGJ (jog) 2bGcpctTou f1G tpc JGAGJ (1og) o tJJG fIIJCGL1TIJf) WG2fILG2 LGLG2OI2

) ECP LGLGJOU JJJ2 Q OGI.A1JOU (g occnbiou Gqc ou T3 uqn2p2 Lonb2)

AVIçFA: AI4UCG O f'O(JucOmG)AVI{A AI4IJCG O IUCOJG

I) I�Ebb: I{G1tJAC Edrn/GuI bLGCH1!OJ bLGWPIW

['Os(•4)Oô4X

(4o•g)O84X

FO(.8x)-OQT (o)

0448

'o(wQ)Ø4Q

(JJQ?)FOQ8

["GAGJ (T)-TO ()TOI(w4)

-ORQ4(QJ1x)F!O

['GAG!

(uto)JX

(1i4o)

o.Q5

08ct34

ogxbccqictiouflI3CGI4uJ1X

C01JtJt L{Ebb AVBA AVI{FA J.

f1UA14tG MOUbLIJJGtL!C D!2fl1PnfOU O 2JJOCJC2 to picoui UJtG Ow bDgGLG2!OU OJ wnjicq ['Os OJ, JLGt JGJtp I�f!O OU flUCGLWIUtA AGflLG

JpJG I

Page 50: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

) j-uc w LcboLcq iu bwutpc2c

3) j'cicj (joe) bccrUcfiou nc pc JcAcj (joe) O IJJG flucGLtJuIA WG2flL LGLGflOI2

quou o bcLwucu 9uq tL1J2UOLA JOCJC2 LLOW {oo3 oo oo oio oi)) ECJJ LGL€2iou 1JJ2 Op2c.AjOu OIJG JOL GCJJ bo2ip1G biuu oj wuqq

AyJ�I'A: juuc o Fo(IucoWC)AVKA ALIJCG OJ pJCOIJJG

j) IcEbb: JJJAG EdfliAJGu bLGCJ111IOIJL? bImflm

ro

Fo

fGAGJ

(i)0 I(Iv.5)0t0Q

(t)-0..x(TTi)Ø.4J

(Jo3Q)T'J1

(TrQJ)0410

(r4iT)33g

(Ro)•Ø

(T40•) (3•3Q)FT0

(j.)Th48 1048

0.g0J

Ø•g4gØ

0ô44

0Q40

0ôQQ

2bccJTJcfiouflIJCCI.ufA

COUWIU BFbb AVL{A AVI{['A J�

B!A141G MOUJJJ D!214PnIOU O b'J'U uq JLu!rOL? 2pocJ io pjcouJc1�GLCIOU2 O JwfIjfGq ['Os o jnc JJcJJfp suo ou fluccLwiufA nw

.LPJG

Page 51: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

31dT

bnU bric O ab1oi1eijoH hA -- inisflonU 3mo3nI no fhithW lo anoi2e315I a3IcJshsV 13n3mu-flanI

UTO 'OninnU iT abDi 31mI iidW b3hIJM 01*A flIo3flI '1IIiEfl33nU iIIEiaIIOD 1flLW

qqj 4ô.O 8O.0 E.0 tO1.0- OQO.0- Q80.0 QQ O8Q AJV

(R0.0) (4V1.0) (81.0) (.I4.0) (V1.0) (EOLO) (QO) (V8.1) (01.) (edo Q8)

EQ.0 111.0- OQO.0 8.O 81.O '00&- QI.O a*8ô1 WHVIHI4 (V40.O) (óVLO) (Q1.0) (VO.0) (11.1) (80.0) (.0) (8O.1) (88.) (edo 0ô8)

VQO.0 0.0- ff0.0 88.0 tV8.O *1VE. **OQVI *Sf$ •*41 W14 (00.O) (0LO) (0.0) (Q1.0) (Vol.!) (Q80.0) (1E.0) (081.l) (V0O.) (ado lV8)

YJIAVJ 881.0 **•4.O 180.0 E.O CQk0- O4.l- Vl.0 840. 8oO Q0.4- AJY

(0.0) (081.0) (Ql.0) (8E.O) (E4.1) (OOLO) (0e.0) (101.0) (R0.) (ado 0Q8)

VV.0 0l.0- l.0 08.0 Vl0.0- tto0 WT4Hi4 (V.t0.0) (8l.0) (Q1.0) (0l.0) (8.l) (lQO.0) (0E.0) (001.0) (&tQ.) (ado 008)

E0.0 000.0- VQO.0 •8f40 *0o4.0 *0E Q.I 0R.0 **EJ VIM (10.0) (1.0) (8Q1.0) (01.0) (181.1) (Q80.0) (V4.0) (Q1.0) (Q4) (ado .1V8)

rijioW M 1tioT - VIM ;rhi1W aaniwd-noM 1niworh-noM - WMHM ;aiaaA biijpiJ V - AJV (1 aboi1 3mo3nl oJ lo oonEhaV lo oJ - YJ5LAVJ ;mijim inohiui 1fl3LSVI1Jp - qqg

.inifl33nu 3mo3ni lo iuam iii a (YJ$IAVJ) 'N$1 w anoiisup3 E (bnooa) iaifl 3t1T ( 13v31 in33I3q 3rhi is 33n&)flmx2 a3ifi3thnI 13v31 11133iøq 1 3f11 Is 33ns3flmIa a31&thn! (

.ao1 ill is a3u1sv mooiii bn ffiIc3w lEA (4 .b3b1J13x3 is riILw b3floq3l 3vüsn riliw anoilsviado hA (

.ano!33n1a31 gniThn3bh3vo 9i1l lo iai iwdoi-Ii3iIasbaoi3i3fh hi molt 31115v-q dl at Iai (110 (0 .a3a3rUn3isq ni b3rtocpi 515 aion3 bisbacia iwdo-Ii3 bao13i3H (V

.xibn3qqA &fi ni b3cfh3a3b ai a3IdShSv lIn3m1r1i2ni 1o 13a iiT (8

Page 52: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

8) JJJG CGf 0J; !1J20.IIUJGUWJ A9IJPIG2 12 qcecqpcq !U flG vbbcuc1) HtGLO2KG C!fA-T.OPfI2I 2fUqLq GUOI2 9tG tcboticq !U b9tcuflceceQ) OlD G2f 12 fiG b-AeJnc pom fIG JJGIGLO2JCG 21!C!IA-L0pfl21 1G91 O1 fIG LG2U4C110132

) VII O2GIA91IOU2 Mifi UG911AG LGbOLIGq MGfI 9LG GXCIIqGq

't) vii MGIW 1uq !UCOUJG A2JflG2 9G U JO23),, !UCITC91C2 2!UfJC9TJCG 91 fIG I bGLCGIJI JGAGJ * JUCflC91G2 21I3TIJC9TJCG 91 fIG? bGLCGUf JGAGJ

) jpc (eccouq) 3 Gd1191!0U2 11CC BEbb (r'AVKFA) 92 fIG UJG92fltG o !UCOIUG nucciuABEbb - EdfllA9lGUf WGC9flf!0U& WCUJTUJ FAVK['A - ro 0j AL!9UCG 0 f0 JIJCOUJC JJ0CJC2

J) ir'v - AC1A r'dnq veec WHMB1I - M0-PO!U ou-prr2JuGe2 G9J1JJ hiM - jo9J .4C1 OLjJJ

(iofl ope) (s) (oiii) (o3) (ooQ3) (oox) (oo) (oi) (oi?) (oo48)J6M T34L 0Q20,, 0J0,, 0•i8,, -301Q, 0408, 0•30, 0T0 -008 0•00

(ioo8 ope) (j) (ojg) (0Qo) (oooi) (o.o) (ooi) (oi8) (oio) (oo)MHI4.B1/ -TflO?,, 0Q48,, TÔX,S 010 -JI3 000ô 0343 O1Q? 0148,, 0T3(Jo?Q ope) (o) (ojx) (oo) (orni) (ooJ) (os) (o38) (0183) (oo)AI'V -3?0,, 0t\,, 303Q,, 003 -ff01? -ff48?, 020J. 002 -0??,, 000X

FAVlcr'A

(Jofl ope) (?4T) (rQQ) (o) (ooQ) (oo8) (oo) (oJ) (o.i) (ooi)hiM -JIQOO,, Q838,, J8T,, 0148, -F4QO 023,, 03JQ 00Qô -00Q 0003

(1008 op2) (Qo8) (IRoo) (0ctJ) ((Yo?ô) (oo.4) (0SO) (0Th3) (oi.\Q) (ffØ4)W111411/A -T43Q,, Q??X,, 00Q4 -00?3 0JQ 0X4 008 -0J3Q,, OJQO

(Jo?Q ope) (t) (j) (og) (orno) (oo88) (o3J) (o34) (oTt) (cio?1)Ar'V -330ôQ,, 48??, ?0,, 000 003 -03QX 0?04, ff043 -04Q,, OOJJ

I�ELb

MGJW COUCfCUf flUCGI491U1A IUCOWG VG vio3 ucq pjjitG jcuJjc }Tq2 jGeifluCCIJCpJf A OlD

IU2l1.1IUJCIU1 A91.19P1G2 KCLC2210U2 01 MG9IW 1UC0133C fl1C'.11U -- VII H0fl2GP0I

j9PJG 4

Page 53: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

JIJ2tcJq o !t2 CWJ IcEbbGcJII9J tO fJJG AJflG OJ iTJC KEbb t tJJ 2bGC!UQcl bLCGUH1C o, tpc bLcqcfcq IEbb ctqpntou

ECP CGJJ couwju ipc bcLcGut cqncqou lu iicjtp pojqju2 iicic cp poncpojq to IEbb

0.O 00Q 0.0

0.T 0JÔ OTQ

JO OJQ Ot

0 Oô 04Q

bcLccurnc:KEbb pccq t

iQ dnq 1rct ou-pnjuc Jip jo J4Ct jo'.1pOU-JJOffIJ

uJrrJfcq J{GqflCjOU In HOflGPOJ /J1GJflJ OL JxGq IGJt1AC Ed11!A1G1U ccrnqoumA bLcmTnw

LPJC

Page 54: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

tmmuimn bLcqcfcq JçJ Ju2fcq o p CUJ9J JcELbECP ccjj COUJ2 qjc bclccuf tcqncjou u iiqj pojqu pA qqj ctc cp onecpoq ro

- 100

go - oo

- 80

Qo -

- QO

40 -

30 - 40

30 - 30

JO - 50

0 - TO

ff43 ff43 03ô

ff33 040 04Q

O3 ff44 ff38

€13? 0R4 03

€1 3\ €145 €145

03Q O.tX 04?

O'3X 0ctX 04X

Ozt? OR] ORO

04Q OR? 0R8

0R3 0Q4 O'Q5

LGLCGUIIIG J9uc MY WH4BIA, I'1I/.

ffEbb xcq unurnrn bLGqlcicq 1nc:jcqncou !u IGJiJJ JCACJ pA qcqjc MGU

!mn1fcq gGqJ1C1OIJ !U Hon2GJojq MC1W pA hCUIJUCU1 IUCOUJG DC!1C

JJG Q

Page 55: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

rod M I9LdGi

-08

-04

-05

0

05

0•'lt

05 ff3 (14 ff2AVBbA.

AVI3A

bod M j9Lde4

bod M JpLdej

ElanLe .1

HEbb

-oe

-0•4

-05

0

05

05 04 oe 08 .1

04 02 oe

I

Page 56: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

-5.

-5 2

-5.4

-5.3

-5.5

-5• .1

10ä M j9LaGI

OO.1 00.12 005 0052 OO3 0032 OO4

-5.

-se

-52

-5.4

5•3

55

-5.4

1° M jpLdeI

EIdflLe 5

004AVUA

BEbb005 004 008

-5.3.

-se

-5.4

-5.5

-5•1

roä M j9LdeI

Page 57: cwpi.rq wv oi - NBER

00

01

03C)

03o 0

00

13.

09

10

rod 0% 11141DM

5 10rod 0& 11)4119*

00

01

05C)

05

E O3.02

0•d

10

WAIOfSq

3f )t bSICSUIIIS bSq!CrSQ BEbbwflJofsq *101111 CDI.

rod 0% 11)4119*

auIofS4CfnOI

ow bSlCSUWS bsqLctsq BEbbWfl)OfSQ *soifii cot.

C)

E

0

aU.

0:93,

rod 0% 11H119M

E

0a

U.

0

3,

pU!WAW bLSqcfsq bb2!WhIOtSq MSOIC11 CDI.Of P b5SUf'.lS sqcsq )Ebb

2WflI0fSQ *501111 CDPc.

E!äIlLG 3