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+BiB2b i?�M BM bK�HH2` TH�+2bX

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jXj J2�bm`2K2Mi �M/ JQ/2Hb

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6B;m`2 k, S�`iv A/2MiB}+�iBQM- *J"

29%

28%

23%

9%

4%

6%

1%

None

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Green

Bloc Quebecois

Other

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

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9 _2bmHib

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R8

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Re

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0.54 0.38 0.76 0.54

Party Match Party Match w/ N−Ps Ideol. Match Ideol. Match w/ N−Ps

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.50

50

100

150

200

250

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0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75Conservative Vote Share in District

Ideo

logi

cal S

elf−

Plac

emen

t

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●Non−Partisan

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Green

Bloc Québécois

Other

.2b+`BTiBQM, � THQi Q7 *J" `2bTQM/2MibǶ B/2QHQ;B+�H b2H7@TH�+2K2Mi Uv@�tBbV �M/ i?2 2biBK�i2/*QMb2`p�iBp2 pQi2 b?�`2 BM i?2 `2bTQM/2MiǶb /Bbi`B+i Ut@�tBbVX 1�+? +B`+H2 Bb +QHQm`2/ �++Q`/BM; iQi?2 `2bTQM/2MiǶb 72/2`�H T�`iBb�Mb?BTX hQ BM+`2�b2 H2;B#BHBiv- TQBMib �`2 p2`iB+�HHv DBii2`2/ #v RyWX

9Xk S`2/B+iQ`b Q7 S�`iv �M/ A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

q?�i 7�+iQ`b K�F2 T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? KQ`2 Q` H2bb HBF2Hv\ hQ ?2HT #2;BM

iQ �Mbr2` i?Bb [m2biBQM- };m`2 8 bmKK�`Bx2b i?2 �p2`�;2 K�`;BM�H 2z2+ib Q7 b2p2`�H

T`2/B+iQ`b QM i?2 T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 Q#b2`pBM; � K�i+? #2ir22M � /Bbi`B+i �M/ Bib `2T`2b2M@

i�iBp2X h?2 }`bi �M/ i?B`/ +QHmKMb BM+Hm/2 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb BM i?2 KQ/2Hb- K�FBM; i?2

Qp2`�HH T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 � K�i+? H2bb HBF2HvX h?2 b2+QM/ �M/ 7Qm`i? +QHmKMb 2t+Hm/2 MQM@

T�`iBb�Mb- 7Q+mbBM; QMHv QM i?Qb2 /Bbi`B+ib BM r?B+? i?2 `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2 B/2MiB}2/ rBi?

� 72/2`�H TQHBiB+�H T�`iv BM i?2B` *J" bm`p2v `2bTQMb2X �i i?2 iQT Q7 2�+? +QHmKM �`2

i?2 7Qm` p�`B�#H2b i?�i �`2 KQbi Q7 BMi2`2bi iQ mb, i?2 UHQ;;2/V TQTmH�iBQM bBx2 Q7 i?2

KmMB+BT�HBiv- r?2i?2` i?2 BM/BpB/m�H Bb 2H2+i2/ �i H�`;2- r?2i?2` i?2 BM/BpB/m�H `�M �b

� K2K#2` Q7 � KmMB+BT�H T�`iv Q` bH�i2- �M/ i?2 UHQ;;2/V 2biBK�i2 Q7 i?2 kyR8 K�`;BM

Q7 pB+iQ`v BM i?2 /Bbi`B+iX "2HQr i?2b2 7Qm` p�`B�#H2b �`2 +Q2{+B2Mib 7Q` i?2 T�`iv }t2/

2z2+ib U#�b2 +�i2;Q`v 4 GB#2`�HV �M/ i?2 `2;BQM }t2/ 2z2+ib U#�b2 +�i2;Q`v 4 q2biVX

h?2 K�`;BM�H 2z2+ib BM �HH 7Qm` +QHmKMb �`2 /`�rM 7`QK HQ;Bi KQ/2Hbc 7mHH i�#H2b �`2

R3

6B;m`2 8, S`2/B+iQ`b Q7 S�`iv �M/ A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

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Party 1 Party 2 Ideology 1 Ideology 2

Main Variables

PartyR

egion

−0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8−0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8−0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8−0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8

Party Strength

Mun. Party

At Large

Population

Green

Conservative

Bloc

NDP

Quebec

Ontario

Atlantic

.2b+`BTiBQM, h?2 T`2/B+iQ`b Q7 T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?c 2�+? +Q2{+B2Mi Bb i?2 �p2`�;2 K�`;BM�H2z2+i Q7 i?2 p�`B�#H2 QM K�i+?X h?2 }`bi �M/ i?B`/ +QHmKMb BM+Hm/2 MQM@T�`iBb�Mbc i?2 b2+QM/ �M/7Qm`i? +QHmKMb 2t+Hm/2 MQM@T�`iBb�MbX a22 i?2 bmTTH2K2Mi�`v K�i2`B�Hb UaJjV 7Q` i?2 +QKTH2i2i�#H2X 6Q` T�`iv- #�b24GB#2`�HX 6Q` `2;BQM- #�b24q2biX

�p�BH�#H2 BM i?2 bmTTH2K2Mi�`v K�i2`B�H UaJjVX

h?`22 Q7 i?2 7Qm` p�`B�#H2b �i i?2 iQT Q7 2�+? +QHmKM +QMbBbi2MiHv ?�p2 MQ /Bb+2`MB#H2

`2H�iBQMb?BT rBi? T�`iv K�i+?X S�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? �TT2�` iQ #2 MQ KQ`2 Q`

H2bb HBF2Hv BM #B; +BiB2b i?�M BM bK�HH QM2bX h?Qb2 r?Q �`2 2H2+i2/ �i H�`;2 �`2 MQ KQ`2

Q` H2bb HBF2Hv iQ K�i+? i?2B` /Bbi`B+ib i?�M i?Qb2 r?Q �`2 2H2+i2/ BM r�`/bX �M/ i?Qb2

r?Q `mM mM/2` i?2 #�MM2` Q7 � KmMB+BT�H T�`iv Q` bH�i2 �`2 MQ KQ`2 HBF2Hv iQ K�i+?

i?2B` /Bbi`B+iǶb T�`iBb�Mb?BT Q` B/2QHQ;v i?�M i?Qb2 r?Q `mM �b BM/2T2M/2MibX h?2b2

}M/BM;b +QM}`K r?�i r2 ?�/ �H`2�/v bmbT2+i2/ 7`QK i?2 bBKmH�iBQMb �#Qp2, T�`iv

�M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? Bb � T?2MQK2MQM i?�i Bb rB/2bT`2�/ �+`Qbb KmMB+BT�HBiB2b Q7

p2`v /Bz2`2Mi bBx2b �M/ BMbiBimiBQM�H +QMi2tibX

AM +QMi`�bi iQ i?2b2 i?`22 p�`B�#H2b- i?2 M2ti p�`B�#H2 Ĝ i?2 2biBK�i2/ kyR8 72/2`�H

K�`;BM Q7 pB+iQ`v 7Q` i?2 rBMMBM; T�`iv BM i?2 r�`/ Q` /Bbi`B+i Ĝ ?�b � bi`QM; �M/

RN

6B;m`2 e, S�`iv ai`2M;i? �M/ S�`ivfA/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

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Ideology 1 Ideology 2

Party 1 Party 2

Min. 25 50 75 Max. Min. 25 50 75 Max.

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

h?2b2 THQib /BbTH�v i?2 2tT2+i2/ p�Hm2 Q7 T�`ivfB/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? �i }p2 p�Hm2b Q7 T�`iv bi`2M;i?,i?2 KBMBKmK Q#b2`p2/ p�Hm2- i?2 k8i? T2`+2MiBH2- i?2 K2/B�M- i?2 d8i? T2`+2MiBH2- �M/ i?2 K�tBKmKp�Hm2X

bm#bi�MiBp2Hv H�`;2 `2H�iBQMb?BT rBi? #Qi? T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?X aBM+2 K�`;BM Q7

pB+iQ`v `�M;2b 7`QK x2`Q iQ QM2- i?Bb +Q2{+B2Mi `2~2+ib i?2 �p2`�;2 K�`;BM�H 2z2+i Q7 �

b?B7i 7`QK � K�`;BM Q7 pB+iQ`v Q7 x2`Q UHQ;B+�HHv BKTQbbB#H2V iQ � K�`;BM Q7 pB+iQ`v Q7 QM2

U2ti`2K2Hv mMHBF2HvVX h?mb- iQ K�F2 i?2 bm#bi�MiBp2 K2�MBM; Q7 i?Bb +Q2{+B2Mi � #Bi

+H2�`2`- };m`2 e THQib i?2 2tT2+i2/ p�Hm2 Q7 T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? �i }p2 p�Hm2b

Q7 T�`iv bi`2M;i?, i?2 Q#b2`p2/ KBMBKmK- k8i? T2`+2MiBH2- K2/B�M- d8i? T2`+2MiBH2-

�M/ Q#b2`p2/ K�tBKmK p�Hm2X LQiB+2 i?�i i?2 2tT2+i2/ T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 � K�i+? H2�Tb

mTr�`/ BM 2�+? THQi �b r2 KQp2 7`QK i?2 KBMBKmK p�Hm2 iQ i?2 k8i? T2`+2MiBH2- #mi

i?2M BM+`2�b2b Km+? KQ`2 KQ/2biHv i?`Qm;? i?2 `2K�BM/2` Q7 i?2 THQiX �+`Qbb �HH 7Qm`

THQib- r2 b22 �M BM+`2�b2 Q7 �i H2�bi ir2Miv T2`+2Mi�;2 TQBMib BM i?2 T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 �

K�i+? �b r2 KQp2 7`QK ?B;?Hv +QKT2iBiBp2 iQ KQ/2`�i2 bi`QM;?QH/ Uk8i? T2`+2MiBH2V

/Bbi`B+ibX �b r2 rQmH/ 2tT2+i- r2 b22 � bm#bi�MiB�H BM+`2�b2 BM i?2 T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 �

K�i+? �b r2 KQp2 7`QK p2`v +QKT2iBiBp2 /Bbi`B+ib iQ KQ/2`�i2 bi`QM;?QH/b- �M/ i?2M

� KQ`2 KQ/2bi BM+`2�b2 �b i?2 T�`ivǶb bi`2M;i? BM i?2 /Bbi`B+i BM+`2�b2b #2vQM/ i?�i

ky

TQBMiX

AM ;2M2`�H- i?2M- r2 ?�p2 7QmM/ HBiiH2 bvbi2K�iB+ p�`B�iBQM BM T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;@

B+�H K�i+? #v HQ+�H BMbiBimiBQMb Q` TQTmH�iBQM bBx2X �b r2 rQmH/ 2tT2+i- T�`iv �M/

B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? #2+QK2 KQ`2 HBF2Hv �b r2 KQp2 7`QK ?B;?Hv +QKT2iBiBp2 /Bbi`B+ib

iQ bi`QM;?QH/bXRR "mi #Qi? T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? �TT2�` iQ #2 Dmbi �b HBF2Hv

�KQM; i?2 *J" `2bTQM/2Mib BM r�`/ �M/ �i@H�`;2 /Bbi`B+ib- BM KmMB+BT�H T�`iBb�M �M/

MQM@T�`iBb�M 2H2+iBQMb- �M/ �KQM; `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2b 7`QK bK�HH2` iQrMb �M/ bm#m`#�M

+BiB2b �M/ BM i?2 +QmMi`vǶb #B;;2bi +BiB2bX

8 .Bb+mbbBQM �M/ *QM+HmbBQM

*�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�HBiB2b Qz2` � /BbiBM+iBp2 QTTQ`imMBiv iQ i2bi 7Q` i?2 T`2b2M+2 Q7 B/2@

QHQ;B+�H `2T`2b2Mi�iBQM BM i?2 �#b2M+2 Q7 T�`iBb�M 2H2+iBQMbX lbBM; M2r /�i� QM i?2

�;;`2;�i2 +?�`�+i2` Q7 *�M�/B�M r�`/b �M/ KmMB+BT�HBiB2b- �HQM; rBi? i?2 T�`iv B/2M@

iB}+�iBQM �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H b2H7@TH�+2K2Mi Q7 *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+B�Mb- i?Bb �`iB+H2

?�b T`QpB/2/ � }`bi bvbi2K�iB+ i2bi Q7 T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? BM *�M�/�X A 7QmM/-

}`bi- i?�i � bm#bi�MiB�H 7`�+iBQM Q7 *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+B�Mb �`2 MQM@T�`iBb�M- BM

i?2 b2Mb2 i?�i i?2v /Q MQi B/2MiB7v 2p2M r2�FHv rBi? �Mv 72/2`�H TQHBiB+�H T�`ivX AM

i2`Kb Q7 �;;`2;�i2 `2T`b2Mi�iBQM- i?Bb K2�Mb i?�i *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+B�Mb �+@

im�HHv HQQF KQ`2 HBF2 i?2 *�M�/B�M Tm#HB+ i?�M i?2B` T`QpBM+B�H Q` 72/2`�H +QmMi2`T�`ibc

i?2 T`QTQ`iBQM Q7 *�M�/B�Mb r?Q /Q MQi B/2MiB7v rBi? �Mv 72/2`�H T�`iv K�i+?2b i?2

T`QTQ`iBQM Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�M KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+B�Mb �HKQbi T2`72+iHvX �i � /Bb�;;`2;�i2/

H2p2H- ?Qr2p2`- i?Bb �HbQ K2�Mb i?�i K�Mv r�`/b �M/ KmMB+BT�HBiB2b �`2 `2T`2b2Mi2/

#v TQHBiB+B�Mb r?Q /Q MQi K�i+? i?2B` /Bbi`B+iX hQ T`Q/m+2 KmMB+BT�H H2;BbH�im`2b rBi?

� `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2 T`QTQ`iBQM Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb- bQK2 p2`v T�`iBb�M r�`/b �M/ +BiB2b �`2

dzbim+FǴ rBi? � MQM@T�`iBb�M `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2X

.2bTBi2 i?2 BKTQ`i�Mi T`2b2M+2 Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb QM *�M�/B�M +Biv +QmM+BHb- A �HbQ

7QmM/ +H2�` 2pB/2M+2 7Q` T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?X L2�`Hv 9yW Q7 KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB@RRA T`QpB/2 �//BiBQM�H BM7Q`K�iBQM QM i?Bb }M/BM; BM aJ8

kR

+B�Mb K�i+? i?2 T�`iBb�Mb?BT Q7 i?2B` /Bbi`B+ib- �M/ i?Bb MmK#2` `Bb2b iQ 89W r?2M r2

2t+Hm/2 MQM@T�`iBb�M TQHBiB+B�Mb 7`QK i?2 �M�HvbBbX h?2b2 MmK#2`b K�v b22K HQr- #mi

r2 Kmbi F22T BM KBM/ i?�i bQK2 7Q`Kb Q7 T�`iv K�i+? �i i?2 72/2`�H H2p2H �`2 T`Q#@

�#Hv QMHv KBMBK�HHv `2H2p�Mi iQ KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+bc r2 �`2 ;2M2`�HHv KQ`2 BMi2`2bi2/

BM mbBM; T�`iv K�i+? �b �M BM/B+�iQ` Q7 B/2QHQ;B+�H T`QtBKBiv i?�M iQ mM/2`bi�M/- 7Q`

BMbi�M+2- r?2i?2` "HQ+ Zmû#û+QBb /Bbi`B+ib �`2 `2T`2b2Mi2/ #v "HQ+ Zmû#û+QBb +QmM@

+BHHQ`b �b QTTQb2/ iQ L2r .2KQ+`�ibX PM i?Bb b2+QM/ K2�bm`2- B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?- r2

b22 Km+? ?B;?2` p�Hm2b, 89W r?2M BM+Hm/BM; MQM@T�`iBb�Mb �M/ deW r?2M r2 2t+Hm/2

MQM@T�`iBb�M TQHBiB+B�Mb 7`QK i?2 �M�HvbBbX h?mb 2p2M r?2M r2 BM+Hm/2 i?2 jyW Q7

HQ+�H TQHBiB+B�Mb r?Q �`2 MQM@T�`iBb�M Ĝ �M/ K�F2 i?2 `�i?2` mMHBF2Hv �bbmKTiBQM i?�i

bm+? TQHBiB+B�Mb �`2 mMBp2`b�HHv MQM@B/2QHQ;B+�H Ĝ r2 biBHH }M/ i?�i � K�DQ`Biv Q7 KmMB+@

BT�H TQHBiB+B�Mb K�i+? i?2 B/2QHQ;v Q7 i?2B` /Bbi`B+ibX 1p2M BM i?2 �#b2M+2 Q7 T�`iBb�M

2H2+iBQMb- B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? Bb i?2 MQ`K- `�i?2` i?�M i?2 2t+2TiBQMX

h?2b2 }M/BM;b bm#bi�MiB�HHv r2�F2M i?2 2KTB`B+�H +H�BK i?�i MQM@T�`iBb�M KmMB+B@

T�H TQHBiB+b Bb ;2M2`�HHv 7`22 Q7 B/2QHQ;B+�H `2T`2b2Mi�iBQM- �b r2HH �b i?2 �`;mK2Mi i?�i

b2`BQmb B/2QHQ;B+�H TQHBiB+b Bb QMHv iQ #2 7QmM/ BM i?2 p2`v #B;;2bi +BiB2bX 6Q` +QMi2K@

TQ`�`v m`#�M `27Q`K2`b r?Q +?2`Bb? i?2 dz#mbBM2bbHBF2Ǵ +?�`�+i2` Q7 KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+b-

i?Bb Bb mM7Q`imM�i2 M2rbX "mi 7Q` i?Qb2 r?Q �++2Ti i?�i KmMB+BT�H Tm#HB+ TQHB+v BM@

2pBi�#Hv BMpQHp2b B/2QHQ;B+�HHv 7`2B;?i2/ /2+BbBQMb Ĝ �#Qmi bT2M/BM;- `2/Bbi`B#miBQM- +Biv

#mBH/BM;- H�M/ mb2- �M/ Km+? KQ`2 Ĝ i?2b2 `2bmHib �`2 `2�bbm`BM;X 1p2M BM i?2 �#b2M+2

Q7 KmMB+BT�H TQHBiB+�H T�`iB2b- K�Mv *�M�/B�Mb ?�p2 HQ+�H `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2b r?Qb2 T�`iB@

b�Mb?BT �M/ B/2QHQ;v Bb #`Q�/Hv `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2 Q7 i?2 /Bbi`B+i i?2v `2T`2b2MiX

Jv }M/BM;b �HbQ BHHmbi`�i2 i?2 M22/ 7Q` � `2M2r2/ `2b2�`+? �;2M/� QM B/2QHQ;v-

`2T`2b2Mi�iBQM- �M/ TQHB+v `2bTQMbBp2M2bb BM *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�HBiB2bX S2`?�Tb KQbi

Q#pBQmbHv- i?2b2 }M/BM;b bm;;2bi i?�i r2 b?QmH/ 2tT2+i iQ b22 TQHB+v `2bTQMbBp2M2bb

BM *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�HBiB2b Q7 i?2 bQ`i i?�i h�mb�MQpBi+? �M/ q�`b?�r 7QmM/ BM i?2

lMBi2/ ai�i2bX "mi /Q r2 b22 bm+? `2bTQMbBp2M2bb BM *�M�/�\ �`2 *�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�H

+QmM+BHb KQ`2 Q` H2bb `2bTQMbBp2 iQ i?2B` Tm#HB+b i?�M BM i?2 lMBi2/ ai�i2b\ 6BM2@;`�BM2/

2H2+iQ`�H /�i�- �HQM; rBi? bm`p2v /�i�b2ib Q7 BM+`2�bBM; bBx2- �`2 K�FBM; Bi TQbbB#H2 iQ

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2biBK�i2 i?2 HQ+�H B/2QHQ;B+�H +QKTH2tBQM Q7 *�M�/B�M r�`/b �M/ +BiB2b 7Q` i?2 }`bi iBK2X

q?�i *�M�/B�M `2b2�`+?2`b /Q MQi ?�p2- ?Qr2p2`- �`2 +QKT�`�#H2 BM/B+�iQ`b Q7 TQHB+v

QmiTmib, `2p2Mm2 bQm`+2b- bT2M/BM; `�i2b- �M/ Tm#HB+ TQHB+v QmiTmib �+`Qbb *�M�/B�M

KmMB+BT�HBiB2bX *QHH2+iBM; i?2b2 /�i� b?QmH/ #2 � T`BQ`Biv 7Q` *�M�/B�M `2b2�`+?2`b

r?Q �`2 BMi2`2bi2/ BM TQHB+v `2bTQMbBp2M2bb �i i?2 KmMB+BT�H H2p2HX

6BM�HHv- ?�pBM; /Bb+Qp2`2/ bi`QM; 2pB/2M+2 7Q` T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?- r2

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8

j S`2/B+iQ`b, �Hi2`M�iBp2 �TT`Q�+?2b

>2`2 A T`QpB/2 i?2 7mHH +Q2{+B2Mib 7Q` i?2 KQ/2H `2TQ`i2/ BM i?2 K�BM i2ti Ui?2 }`bi +QHmKM Q7i?2 i�#H2 #2HQrV �HQM; rBi? irQ �Hi2`M�iBp2 KQ/2Hb, �M PGa KQ/2H Ui?2 b2+QM/ +QHmKMV �M/� KmHiBH2p2H KQ/2H rBi? p�`B�#H2 BMi2`+2Tib 7Q` KmMB+BT�HBiv �M/ `2;BQM Ui?2 i?B`/ +QHmKMVXS�ii2`Mb Q7 bi�iBbiB+�H bB;MB}+�M+2 `2TQ`i2/ BM i?2 K�BM i2ti �`2 `Q#mbi iQ i?2b2 KQ/2HHBM;+?QB+2bX

h�#H2 R, S`2/B+iQ`b Q7 A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

.2T2M/2Mi p�`B�#H2,A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

HQ;BbiB+ PGa ;2M2`�HBx2/ HBM2�`KBt2/@2z2+ib

URV UkV UjV�i G�`;2 yXRkd UyXkyeV yXyjy UyXy9NV yXyNj UyXRN3VS�`iv ai`2M;i? RXk39∗∗ UyX8eyV yXkNN∗∗ UyXRjyV RXRee∗∗ UyX89RVJmMX S�`iv yXked UyXkeeV yXyeR UyXyeRV yXjN8 UyXkdNVSQTmH�iBQM aBx2 −yXkN3 UyXj3jV −yXydy UyXy3NV −yXkN9 UyXjd8VS�`iv, *QM −yX93k∗∗ UyXkRkV −yXRR8∗∗ UyXy8yV −yX9y9∗∗ UyXkyeVS�`iv, L.S yXkj9 UyXjyjV yXy89 UyXydyV yXj99 UyXjReVS�`iv, :`22M RX3ej∗ URXyekV yXkdk∗ UyXR99V kXyyy∗ URXye8VS�`iv, "HQ+ yXy3y UyX9RkV yXyRN UyXyN9V yXkRy UyX9kRV_2;BQM, PL −yXkde UyXkkNV −yXyeN UyXy88V_2;BQM, Z* yXR9R UyXkN9V yXyjj UyXyeNV_2;BQM, �iH�MiB+ −yXNkk∗∗∗ UyXj88V −yXkkR∗∗∗ UyXy3jV*QMbi�Mi −yX93N UyX8eNV yXjNy∗∗∗ UyXRjjV −yXeke UyX9N3VP#b2`p�iBQMb eje eje eje_2 yXy83�/Dmbi2/ _2 yXy9k

LQi2, ∗T<yXRc ∗∗T<yXy8c ∗∗∗T<yXyR

e

9 JmMB+BT�H LQM@S�`iBb�Mb

h?2 KQ/2H #2HQr `2TQ`ib � HQ;Bi KQ/2H Q7 i?2 T`2/B+iQ`b Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb?BTX A }M/ MQ`2H�iBQMb?BT #2ir22M MQM@T�`iBb�Mb?BT �M/ r�`/f�i@H�`;2 BMbiBimiBQMbX LQ` /Q2b KmMB+BT�HT�`iBb�Mb?BT T`2/B+i 72/2`�H T�`iBb�Mb?BT- � +H2�` i2bi�K2Mi iQ i?2 /Bb+QMM2+i #2ir22M Km@MB+BT�H �M/ 72/2`�H TQHBiB+�H T�`iB2b i?�i r2 /Bb+mbb2/ �#Qp2X SQTmH�iBQM bBx2- ?Qr2p2`- Bb`2H�i2/ iQ KmMB+BT�H T�`iBb�Mb?BT- �M/ BM i?2 QTTQbBi2 /B`2+iBQM i?�i KQbi Q#b2`p2`b rQmH/2tT2+i, MQM@T�`iBb�Mb?BT Bb KQ`2 HBF2Hv BM H�`;2` KmMB+BT�HBiB2b i?�M bK�HH2` QM2bX

h?Bb }M/BM; Bb +QmMi2`BMimBiBp2 �i }`bi- bBM+2 m`#�M b+?QH�`b i2M/ iQ i?BMF Q7 #B; +BiB2b�b i?2 TH�+2 r?2`2 B/2QHQ;B+�H �M/ `2/Bbi`B#miBp2 TQHBiB+b Bb TQbbB#H2 �i i?2 HQ+�H b+�H2X u2iBi K�v BM 7�+i ?�p2 � HQ;B+ i?�i Bb r2HH rQ`i? 2tTHQ`BM; BM 7mim`2 `2b2�`+?X AM bK�HH iQrMb�M/ `m`�H KmMB+BT�HBiB2b- Bi Bb `2;mH�`Hv i?2 +�b2 i?�i r?QH2 iQrMb Ĝ 2p2M b2p2`�H iQrMb Ĝ�`2 `2T`2b2Mi2/ #v � bBM;H2 JS Q` JG�X 62r QTTQ`imMBiB2b �`2 �p�BH�#H2 BM BM i?2b2 �`2�b7Q` BM/BpB/m�Hb iQ 2Mi2` 72/2`�H Q` T`QpBM+B�H TQHBiB+b- r?B+? K�v H2�/ �+iBp2 T�`iBb�Mb iQ+QMbB/2` `mMMBM; 7Q` HQ+�H Q{+2 BMbi2�/X AM #B;;2` +BiB2b- QM i?2 Qi?2` ?�M/- � +Biv +�M ?�p2�b K�Mv Q` 2p2M KQ`2 T`QpBM+B�H �M/ 72/2`�H `2T`2b2Mi�iBp2b �b KmMB+BT�H +QmM+BHHQ`bX :Bp2MBM+mK#2Mi bm++2bb `�i2b BM #B; +BiB2b- QTTQ`imMBiB2b iQ Tm`bm2 T`QpBM+B�H Q` 72/2`�H Q{+2 K�vT`Qp2 iQ #2 KQ`2 `2�/BHv �p�BH�#H2 iQ �K#BiBQmb T�`iBb�Mb i?�M QTTQ`imMBiB2b 7Q` KmMB+BT�HQ{+2X h?Bb +QmH/ `2bmHi BM � ?B;?2` T`QTQ`iBQM Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�M +�M/B/�i2b 7Q` KmMB+BT�HQ{+2 BM #B; +BiB2bX q?�i2p2` i?2 +�mb2- ?Qr2p2`- i?2 T`2b2M+2 Q7 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb QM #B; +Biv+QmM+BHb K�v #2 � 7�+iQ` i?�i K�F2b #B; +Biv TQHBiB+b H2bb B/2QHQ;B+�HHv bi`m+im`2/ i?�M r2KB;?i Qi?2`rBb2 2tT2+i- ;Bp2M i?2 �``�v Q7 B/2QHQ;B+�HHv +?�`;2/ �M/ `2/Bbi`B#miBp2 Bbbm2bi?�i #B; +BiB2b Kmbi �//`2bbX h?2b2 TQbbB#BHBiB2b �`2 rQ`i?v Q7 KQ`2 7Q+mb2/ `2b2�`+?- mbBM;/�i� bQm`+2b bm+? �b KmMB+BT�H `QHH +�HHb- iQ #2ii2` mM/2`bi�M/ i?2 +QMb2[m2M+2b Q7 ?�pBM;MQM@T�`iBb�M TQHBiB+B�Mb QM #B;@+Biv +QmM+BHb BM *�M�/�X

d

h�#H2 k, S`2/B+iQ`b Q7 A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

.2T2M/2Mi p�`B�#H2,LQM@S�`iBb�Mb?BT

�i G�`;2 −yXRRj UyXkjkVS�`iv ai`2M;i? −yXR33 UyXeyeVJmMX S�`iv −yX9yj UyXkNkVSQTmH�iBQM aBx2 RXy9j∗∗ UyX9R8VS�`iv, *QM −yXRyy UyXk99VS�`iv, L.S yXy9e UyXjk9VS�`iv, :`22M −RXk3j URXyeNVS�`iv, "HQ+ yXR89 UyX9jdV_2;BQM, PL −yXk3e UyXkeNV_2;BQM, Z* yXky9 UyXjkkV_2;BQM, �iH�MiB+ yX88d UyXjdyV*QMbi�Mi −RXRRN∗ UyXekeVP#b2`p�iBQMb eje

LQi2, ∗T<yXRc ∗∗T<yXy8c ∗∗∗T<yXyR

3

8 1H2+iQ`�H avbi2Kb �M/ S�`iv ai`2M;i?

�b MQi2/ BM i?2 K�BM i2ti- *�M�/�Ƕb KmHiB@T�`iv bvbi2K- +QK#BM2/ rBi? THm`�HBiv 2H2+iBQMb-bm#bi�MiB�HHv +QKTHB+�i2b �Mv +H�BKb �#Qmi dzGB#2`�HǴ Q` dz*QMb2`p�iBp2Ǵ Q` dzL.SǴ /Bbi`B+ib-#2+�mb2 Bi �bbmK2b- 7Q` BMbi�M+2- i?�i � GB#2`�H /Bbi`B+i i?�i r�b rQM BM � iB;?i i?`22@r�v`�+2 Bb Dmbi �b Km+? � GB#2`�H /Bbi`B+i �b QM2 i?�i r�b b2+m`2/ BM � #HQrQmiX A ?�p2 bQm;?i iQ�/Dmbi 7Q` i?Bb T`Q#H2K BM i?2 `2;`2bbBQM �M�Hvb2b BM i?2 K�BM i2ti mbBM; i?2 dzT�`iv bi`2M;i?Ǵp�`B�#H2X >2`2 A T`2b2Mi irQ �//BiBQM�H THQib i?�i T`QpB/2 �//BiBQM�H `2�bbm`�M+2 i?�i KvK2�bm`2 Q7 /Bbi`B+i T�`iBb�Mb?BT Bb #2?�pBM; r2HHX

AM };m`2b 9 �M/ 8 #2HQr- A #2;BM #v /BpB/BM; i?2 /�i� BMiQ i2M 2[m�HHv@bBx2/ #BMb- Km+?HBF2 � ?BbiQ;`�Kc BM i?2 }`bi };m`2- i?2b2 #BMb �`2 i?2 K�`;BM Q7 pB+iQ`v BM i?2 /Bbi`B+i- �M/BM i?2 b2+QM/ };m`2- i?2 #BMb �`2 i?2 pQi2b?�`2 7Q` i?2 rBMMBM; T�`ivX 6Q` 2�+? #BM- A i?2M+�H+mH�i2 �M/ THQi i?2 K2�M p�Hm2 Q7 T�`iv K�i+?X q?�i r2 b?QmH/ b22- B7 Qm` K2�bm`2 Q7T�`iv K�i+? Bb rQ`FBM; T`QT2`Hv- Bb i?�i i?2 T`Q#�#BHBiv Q7 � K�i+? rBHH BM+`2�b2 �b i?2 /Bbi`B+iKQp2b 7`QK #2BM; r?�i r2 KB;?i +�HH � dzTHm`�HBiv rBMǴ U� /Bbi`B+i i?�i r�b rQM #2+�mb2 Q7� iB;?i KmHiB@T�`iv +QMi2biV iQ #2BM; � dzbi`QM;?QH/Ǵ U� /Bbi`B+i i?�i r�b rQM #2+�mb2 � H�`;2THm`�HBiv Q` K�DQ`Biv Q7 pQi2`b �+im�HHv +�bi � #�HHQi 7Q` i?2 rBMMBM; T�`ivVX AM 7�+i i?Bb BbT`2+Bb2Hv r?�i r2 b22, i?2 p�Hm2b Q7 T�`iv K�i+? +HBK# bi2�/BHv �+`Qbb i?2 };m`2 �b r2 KQp27`QK H27i iQ `B;?i- #2;BMMBM; BM i?2 jy T2`+2Mi `�M;2 �M/ +HBK#BM; iQr�`/ dy T2`+2Mi BM i?2KQbi /QKBM�Mi /Bbi`B+ibXR

:Bp2M i?2b2 };m`2b- Bi Bb HBF2Hv i?�i Kv K2�bm`2b Q7 T�`iv �M/ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+? �`2HBF2Hv iQ mM/2`bi�i2- `�i?2` i?�M Qp2`bi�i2- i?2 BKTQ`i�M+2 Q7 B/2QHQ;B+�H `2T`2b2Mi�iBQM BM*�M�/B�M KmMB+BT�HBiB2b- #2+�mb2 A ?�p2 MQi 2t+Hm/2/ i?2 M�``Qr@rBM /Bbi`B+ib 7`QK BM+HmbBQMBM i?2 T�`iv K�i+? K2�bm`2X q?2M r2 7Q+mb QMHv QM i?2 bi`QM;?QH/ /Bbi`B+ib- r2 b22 Km+?+H2�`2` 2pB/2M+2 Q7 T�`iv K�i+?- 2p2M r?2M r2 BM+Hm/2 MQM@T�`iBb�Mb BM i?2 �M�HvbBb U�b A/Q ?2`2VX AM b?Q`i- *�M�/�Ƕb KmHiB@T�`iv THm`�HBiv 2H2+iBQMb +`2�i2 bQK2 ?2�/�+?2b- #mi MQb2`BQmb T`Q#H2Kb- 7Q` Qm` �M�HvbBbX

RX h?2`2 Bb QMHv QM2 BM/BpB/m�H BM i?2 }M�H #BM- r?Q ?�TT2Mb MQi iQ K�i+? i?2 T�`iBb�Mb?BT Q7 i?2B` /Bbi`B+iX

N

6B;m`2 9, S�`iv J�i+? #v "BMM2/ J�`;BM Q7 oB+iQ`v

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0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Binned Estimated Margin of Victory (Federal Data)

Prop

ortio

n Pa

rty M

atch

6B;m`2 8, S�`iv J�i+? #v "BMM2/ oQi2 a?�`2

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●

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0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Binned Party Vote Share (Federal Data)

Prop

ortio

n Pa

rty M

atch

Ry

e *Q2{+B2Mi h�#H2b

h�#H2 j bmKK�`Bx2b i?2 +Q2{+B2Mib 7Q` i?2 KQ/2Hb 7`QK r?B+? �p2`�;2 K�`;BM�H 2z2+ib �`2/`�rM BM i?2 KQ/2H BM i?2 K�BM i2tiX h�#H2 9 +QKT�`2b `2bmHib mbBM; irQ /BbiBM+i K2�bm`2bQ7 B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?, i?2 T�`iv@rBMM2`@#�b2/ K2�bm`2- r?B+? Bb mb2/ BM i?2 K�BM i2ti- �M/i?2 *QMb2`p�iBp2@pQi2b?�`2@#�b2/ K2�bm`2- r?B+? A /2b+`B#2 BM i?2 K�BM i2ti �b � TQbbB#H2�Hi2`M�iBp2 �TT`Q�+? iQ B/2QHQ;B+�H K�i+?X Jv bm#bi�MiBp2 }M/BM;b �`2 B/2MiB+�H mbBM; 2Bi?2`K2�bm`2X

RR

h�#H2 j, S`2/B+iQ`b Q7 S�`iv �M/ A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

.2T2M/2Mi p�`B�#H2,S�`iv J�i+? A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?

URV UkV UjV U9V�i G�`;2 −yXyyd −yXyek yXRkd yXRdk

UyXkRRV UyXkjNV UyXkyeV UyXk3eV

S�`iv ai`2M;i? RXeyk∗∗∗ kXykk∗∗∗ RXk39∗∗ kXjyk∗∗∗

UyX8N3V UyXee3V UyX8eyV UyXdd9V

JmMX S�`iv yXkNe yXR3e yXked yXk8yUyXkeeV UyXjy9V UyXkeeV UyX9e8V

SQTmH�iBQM aBx2 −yXdyj∗ −yXkN8 −yXkN3 yX383UyXj3NV UyX999V UyXj3jV UyX8N9V

S�`iv, *QM yXR9y yXRe3 −yX93k∗∗ −yX39d∗∗∗

UyXkR8V UyXk9kV UyXkRkV UyXk3yV

S�`iv, L.S −yXeNd∗∗ −yXd33∗∗ yXkj9 yX3R8UyXjk3V UyXj88V UyXjyjV UyX83RV

S�`iv, :`22M yXRyk −yXj8N RX3ej∗ R9X33jUyXeyyV UyXejeV URXyekV UeNkXyRjV

S�`iv, "HQ+ −yX8yN −yX8de yXy3y yXjykUyX9k3V UyX9d9V UyX9RkV UyX398V

_2;BQM, PL −yXjed −yXeRe∗∗ −yXkde −yX89k∗

UyXkjjV UyXkekV UyXkkNV UyXkNjV

_2;BQM, Z* −yX9k9 −yXjN8 yXR9R yXN8j∗

UyXjykV UyXj9yV UyXkN9V UyX9N9V

_2;BQM, �iH�MiB+ −yXedy∗ −yX8Ry −yXNkk∗∗∗ −RXy9e∗∗

UyXjekV UyX9jRV UyXj88V UyX939V

*QMbi�Mi −RXRRj∗ −yX3dR −yX93N −yX8d9UyX8N8V UyXe8NV UyX8eNV UyXd33V

P#b2`p�iBQMb eje 9d9 eje 9d9

LQi2, ∗T<yXRc ∗∗T<yXy8c ∗∗∗T<yXyR

Rk

h�#H2 9, A/2QHQ;B+�H J�i+?, hrQ J2�bm`2b

.2T2M/2Mi p�`B�#H2,A/X J�i+? UJ2�bm`2 RV A/X J�i+? UJ2�bm`2 kV

URV UkV UjV U9V�i G�`;2 yXRkd yXRdk yXRjj yXyNk

UyXkyeV UyXk3eV UyXkydV UyXk3eV

S�`iv ai`2M;i? RXk39∗∗ kXjyk∗∗∗ RXyje∗ RXdey∗∗

UyX8eyV UyXdd9V UyX883V UyXdeeV

JmMX S�`iv yXked yXk8y −yXyky −yXdje∗

UyXkeeV UyX9e8V UyXke8V UyX998V

SQTmH�iBQM aBx2 −yXkN3 yX383 −yXeN9∗ −yXk83UyXj3jV UyX8N9V UyXj3jV UyX88NV

S�`iv, *QM −yX93k∗∗ −yX39d∗∗∗ −yXeRk∗∗∗ −RXy9d∗∗∗

UyXkRkV UyXk3yV UyXkRjV UyXkddV

S�`iv, L.S yXkj9 yX3R8 yXkRd yXd3RUyXjyjV UyX83RV UyXjyjV UyX8dNV

S�`iv, :`22M RX3ej∗ R9X33j RX383∗ R9XNydURXyekV UeNkXyRjV URXyejV Ue3eXyeRV

S�`iv, "HQ+ yXy3y yXjyk −yXy9N yXy8RUyX9RkV UyX398V UyX9RjV UyX38NV

_2;BQM, PL −yXkde −yX89k∗ −yXjjN −yXeNk∗∗

UyXkkNV UyXkNjV UyXkkNV UyXk33V

_2;BQM, Z* yXR9R yXN8j∗ yXj8y RX8dd∗∗∗

UyXkN9V UyX9N9V UyXkNeV UyX8j8V

_2;BQM, �iH�MiB+ −yXNkk∗∗∗ −RXy9e∗∗ −yXdkN∗∗ −yXedyUyXj88V UyX939V UyXj8kV UyX9NjV

*QMbi�Mi −yX93N −yX8d9 −yXR3e yXk8NUyX8eNV UyXd33V UyX8edV UyXdd9V

P#b2`p�iBQMb eje 9d9 eje 9d9

LQi2, ∗T<yXRc ∗∗T<yXy8c ∗∗∗T<yXyR

Rj