Smart GovernanceComplexity and the Megacity

Prof. Dr. Helmut WillkeZeppelin University

Friedrichshafen, Germany

Agenda

1. Governing complex systems2. Coping with uncertainty3. Building competencies4. Achieving resilience

GOVERNING COMPLEX SYSTEMSPart 1

4

Trivial system

LinearSerial

Computable input output

5

Complex system

Cognition patternS

elf-

refe

ren

ce

System memory

Identity

Who am I?

What is my interest?

6

Why interventions fail

Rationality 1

Explanation 1Intervention 1 Effect 1

Intervention X Effect Y

Explanation 2

Explanation Z

Surface surface

Deep- structure

Models of governing complex systems

HierarchyApathy from below

ActiveNetwork

Lacking compliance

MarketIndivdualistic

syndrome

Hybrid

Hybrid

Involvement and autonomy

Con

trol

and

cohe

sion

Flat hierarchiesContextual guidanceMatrix organization

Guided autonomyDecentral coordinationAlliances and PPPs

COPING WITH UNCERTAINTYPart 2

Types of complexity

Source: [Snowden, 2004 #2544]: 144

Complexity: Network of twitter-conversations (1 hour)

10Quelle: http://blog.socialflow.com/post/7120243870/audience-study

Knowns and unknowns

11

Risk interconnection map 2009

Source:WEF 2009: 6

Levels of pre-intervention inquiry

Surface1.Order

observing

Deep structure2. Order

observing

Paradigm levelWhat are we

talking about?

Paradigm levelWhat is the

system?

Deep structureComplex causation

Paradigm levelWhat is driving

the system?

BUILDING COMPETENCIESPart 3

Architecture of knowledge

Data Information Knowledge Capabilities

BasicOperation

CodedObservations

Systemicly relevantdata

Information embedded in fields of practice

Patterns of knowledge composing action fields

Restric-tions

Numberstextspictures

Information is system specific

Communityof practice

Time for practice

challenge

innovativehybrid forms

Informationtransfer

Knowledge sharing

SpecializationDifferentiation

Economic complexity index: the product space

Source: Hausmann, Ricardo, and Cesar et al Hidalgo. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity: 45

garments

computer

chemicalsmachinery construction

aircrraft

Economic complexity index: Poland

Source: Hausmann, Ricardo, and Cesar et al Hidalgo. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity: 280

RESILIENCEPart 4

The concept of resilienceResilience is not about responding to a one-time crisis.

It is not about rebounding from a setback.It is about continuously anticipating - and adjusting to -

ongoing contextual transformations.Resilience means the capacity to change before the

case for change becomes desperate.

Source: Hamel/Välikangas 2003

20

RESILIENCE IN CHILDREN

Systemic resilience

21

Learning Organi-zation

Systemic resilience

Systemic intelligence

Systemic management