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Indonesia Renewable Energy Outlook& Prospect for Ocean Energy!M.A.M. Oktaufik!

Energy

Indonesia Energy Sector Overview

Source: EBTKE KESDM 2012!Tripled Demand & Doubled Supply in 2 decades, heavily Fossil based Energy dependent!Main factors incl. Population & Economic (GDP) growth rate !

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211/09/12!

Indonesia Energy Outlook Model: Methodology

Markal Optimization + BPPT's Indonesia Demand Model !

Policy, Business Plan, Economic & Politic Conditions, Technology, etc !

Indonesia Energy Outlook (2012): Primary Energy(Base Case: 8% GDP Avg.Growth)

Rapid increase in final energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold !

Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%).! Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030.! The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and firewood

(10%) in 2015.!

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11/09/12!

Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030. !

EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix. !

New & Renewable Energy SourcesContribution in Energy-Mix

11/09/12!

2030: biofuel become the main RE utilization, particularly for transportation sector, followsby geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, solar, Waste, and Wind (total 17,5% base case)!

New & Renewable Energy Sources by Type

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Outlook of Power Plant Capacity

by Type of Fuel/Source!2010 2030:!Multiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds!

33,2 GW (2010) -> 162 GW(2030, Base, 8%/th).

! !-->228 GW (2030,MP3EI, 10%/th)

!Coal PP: Primary Tech.!2030: 97,6 GW (base) and160,7 GW MP3EI). !

NRE Vs Fossil based PP! 2010 s.d. 2030: RE Power

Generation ~6x; 6,6 -> 39GW!

Types: Geothermal, Hydro,Biomass, Nuclear, Solar

PV, Coal Gasification/CCT,Wind, Waste/W2E !

Geothermal & Hydro: 12GW (7%) and 18,3GW(11%) in 2030. !

Nuclear is predicted toproduce 2 GW (1%) in2028, 4 GW (2%) in2030. !

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Renewable Energy for Electricity Paradigm shift of National Energy Policy: availability and

affordability limitation of Fossil Fuel ---> more role and hope to Newand Renewable Energy Sources and also Energy Efficiency in thenational energy-mix in the near future.!

High increase of energy demand (Fuel and Electricity): populationand economic growth, give more pressure to increase the energysupply (fuel and electricity)!

Types of Renewable Energy Technology:! Solar PV, Pico/Micro/Mini Hydro, Bioenergy: with their own

limitation and benefit, in particularly their site specific, low energy-density and intermittent profile. Economically can not compete theheavily subsidized fossil fuel.!

Ocean Energy have a better source potential, (Ocean area almost2/3 of whole Indonesia area: a Maritime Continent) but very limitedR&D activities in Indonesia.!

Low Carbon Energy Development &BPPTs Experiences (1980 now)

BPPT has been developing 'cleaner' energytechnology to support sustainable energy for more

than 30 years; However, the related technology

remain in their pre-commercialization stage.! Implementation of low carbon energy in Indonesia has

not take-off due to non technology barriers, such asconditions in the down stream and non integration of

upstream and process of Low Carbon Energy

development, almost all types of Renewable Energy

source; such as Solar (PV & Thermal), Micro/Mini

Hydro, Biomass Energy, Biofuels, Wind Energy,Ocean Energy (OTEC, Wave, Current), etc.!

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OTEC Bali(Design)

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1979:

Pilot Plant !Bio-Ethanol!& energyPlantation!

1990: 2006 2010:

Energy Efficiency Applications &Audit in Energy IntensiveIndustries!

2012 - !1995 2003!

-PV Applications!& Pilotings!(Housing, Rural,!Pumping, etc)!

-Solar Thermal !Timber Drying!

Wind EnergyTechnology !(Low Velocity) ! Biomass/

Biogas PowerGeneration !

SmallGeothermalPower PlantPrototyping!

1985:

-Solar Village!Project!

Renewable Energy!IndonesiaProject!

-Solar Thermal !Pump!

PV Testing !Facility/Lab.!

BiomassGasification

PV Hybrid!Piloting!

Microturbine!Cogeneration!Appl. Proj.!

Solar Agro !Drying!

Biohydrogen!Production!

Smart Grid

Microhydro!Piloting!

Geothermal !Pilot plant!

Ocean CurrentPrototyping & !potential mapping!

PV IndustryFeasibilityAssessment!

Biofuels forTransportation

Biodiesel!Plant Dev.!Tap-Chan+OWCStudy(Baron)!

Timeline of RE & EE R&D :

BPPT's Experiences

Islands = 17,480! Ocean = 5.8 million km2! Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2 ! Costline = 95,180 km Population (2010) = 236 million!

Indonesia Archipelago: a Maritime Continent

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Comparison of Energy Resources

RenewableResource

LowCapital

Cost

LowRunning

Cost

MinimalEnvironmental

Impact

Predictable Modular

Fossil! N! Y! N! N! Y! N!Nuclear! N! Y! N! N! Y! N!Wind! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Solar! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Hydro! Y! Y! Y! N! Y! N!Wave! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Current! Y! N! Y! Y! Y! Y!OTEC! Y! N! NA! Y! Y! Y!

Ocean Energy Power Generation Technology still in the initial stage!

Discussions & Recommendations (1)

Long-term energy model study of Indonesia's energy condition by2030, with the assumption of optimistic economic growth (8%) and

high/MP3EI (10%), indicating the dominance of fossil energy sources

(83%) over the renewable energy sources (17%) in its role as a

supplier for domestic energy demand or national energy-mix. ! Outlook of RE utilization still below the targeted conditions of the long-

term national energy policy. There is a very big challenge andopportunity of all Renewable Energy technologies & Resources in

developing the future sustainable energy in Indonesia. ! Almost all of the RE technologies remain in their early stage of

commercial applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy

technology development need to be accelerated to join the effort to

give us the so called low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable

development and society.!

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Discussions & Recommendations (2) Ocean energy potential was very small or unaccounted in the OEI

model. More information is needed on the potential and feasibilityof the future Ocean energy application in Indonesia.!

More piloting and R&D activities of the OEPG technology isimportant to gain understanding and interest in developing this

technology.! Demand wise development of OEPG Plants require a good long

term planning and close to the populated or industrial area. To

support this requirement, a spatial mapping approach need to be

conducted due to various activities (transportation, fishery, etc)present in the same area or locations.!

Micro and Smart Grid technology development nowadays can givebenefit to accelerate the Ocean Energy development. Therefore

any pilot project of OEPG need to be integrated with the otherRenewable Energy Power Plants (Hybrid Power System)!

Thank You for your kind

Attention

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