h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2`...

79
∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗∗

Transcript of h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2`...

Page 1: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

∗ ∗∗ ∗∗∗

∗∗

∗∗∗

Page 2: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 3: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 4: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

. = (30.4 ∗ + 36.4 ∗ ) /(30.4 + 36.4)

-2-1

01

2

RER

(ex.

rent

s) a

ppre

ciat

ion/

depr

ecia

tion

-10 -5 0 5 10

House prices (% change relative to aggregate)

Page 5: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 6: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 7: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 8: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 9: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 10: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 11: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 12: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 13: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 14: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 15: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 16: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 17: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 18: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

= (1− α )!

, − ,

"+ α

!, − ,

"

, = (1− δ) , + δ ,

#T , =!

, − ,

"

= , , , .

Page 19: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

π , − π , = κ∞$

=0

β%!

& , + − #T , + − & , +

"+

!#µ , + − #µ , +

"'.

!& , + − #T , + − & , +

"

!#µ , + − #µ , +

".

Page 20: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

π , − π , = κ∞$

=0

β%!

& , + − #T , + − & , +

"+

!#µ , + − #µ , +

"'.

!& , + − #T , + − & , +

"

!#µ , + − #µ , +

".

Page 21: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

#T , :

#T , = ν #T , −1 + κ∞$

=0

ν− −12

%!(

, + − (, +

"+!#µ , + − #µ , +

"'.

(, − (

,

Page 22: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

#T , :

#T , = ν #T , −1 + κ∞$

=0

ν− −12

%!(

, + − (, +

"+!#µ , + − #µ , +

"'.

(, − (

,

Page 23: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

#T , = ν #T , −1 + κ%MC , + µ ,

'

MC , =∞$

=0

ν− −12

!(

, + − (, +

"

µ , =∞$

=0

ν− −12

!#µ , + − #µ , +

".

Page 24: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

%MC , + µ ,

'

#T , = δ0 + δ1 + η #T , −1 + .

Page 25: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

%MC , + µ ,

'

#T , = δ0 + δ1 + η #T , −1 + .

Page 26: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

%MC , + µ ,

'

#T , = δ0 + δ1 + η #T , −1 + .

Page 27: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 28: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

, = α + γ + β · , + θ , + ε ,

= , ,= , , ,

Page 29: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

, = α + γ + β · , + θ , + ε ,

= , ,= , , ,

Page 30: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 31: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 32: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 33: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 34: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 35: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 36: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 37: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 38: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 39: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 40: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 41: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 42: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 43: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 44: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

2

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2

Page 46: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 47: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
Page 48: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM

2

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2

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Page 72: h?2JBbbBM;AMi2`M H.2p Hm iBQMSmxxH2 · GBi2` im`2`2pB2r h?BbT T2``2H i2biQb2p2` HT`2pBQmb+QMi`B#miBQMbBMp2biB; iBM;`2;BQM H T`B+2b M/r ;2b /DmbiK2Mi M/`2;BQM H#mbBM2bb+v+H2b- 7i2`i?2b2KBM
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