African Swine Fever Awareness in Social Media in Poland

Andrzej Jarynowski1, Vitaly Belik1,

Daniel Płatek1, Andrzej Buda 1

1) Interdisciplinary Research Institute in Wroclaw/Głogów2) System Modeling Group, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin

Wroclaw, 10.05.2019

ASF Problem

Recent rapid spread of the African Swine Fever (ASF) :

• African swine fever is viral infection which causes acute disease in domestic pigs and wild boar.

• Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming, is substantial.

• Veterinary epidemiology (epizoology) & emerging disease

Consequences of ASF in Poland (only)

https://youtu.be/W1mL17nKIXY?t=686

http://belik.userpage.fu-berlin.de/files/asf_map.html

Consequences of ASF in Poland (only)• Introduction – 2014

• Due to restrictions ~90% (~30000) of farms in affected areas of Poland (June 2017) stopped pig production or were banned

• Ban for export of pork to many countries

• Reduction of pigs heads from 14 millions in 2013 to 11 millions in 2016

• Costs to National Economy >200 millions EUR annually

Epidemiology

• The disease affects domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and Eurasian wild boars (Sus scrofa ferus) as well as feral pigs

• Acute (animals die before producing antibodies) /subacute (animals die before showing specific clinical symptoms) forms

• No neutralizing antibodies

• No vaccine

• No treatment

AetiologyInfectious materials:

• blood

• nosal swabs

• rectal swabs

• vaginal

Routes:

• S as Swine and WB as Wild Boar both nose-nose and S airborne/droplet in farm

• Feeding on carcases (S, but WB are not showing cannibalism in normal situation)

• Meat rest-overs and faecal-oral (S-WB via human and S-S via human)

• Formites and contaminated environment (S directly of indirectly via human)

• Pork supply chain (S-S via human)

Anthropic Risk

Model – spatial propagation

Partial differential equations in the geographic spread of diseases to describe the time evolution of the epidemic, but also of the transfer of the disease to new areas. For example, by slightly modifying the infecting equation to express the diffusion (where Δ is the Laplacian, and dif is the diffusion coefficient), we obtain:

According to simplified relation in SIF (Susceptible, Infectious, Free) model R0=inf*durat we observe that detection and elimination time is critical to satisfy epidemic condition (R0=1).

1) Regime February 2014 to July 2016. Pre (sub) epidemic regime, spatial expansion ~0.28 County per month. Infectivity rate is estimated between 0 up to 0.005 with reasonable upper limit around on 0 level per month

2) Regime July 2016 to June 2017 – stationary ‘epidemic’ regime with increase due to spatial expansion ~0.8/4.4% monthly County per month. Infectivity rate is estimated between 0.2 up to 1.25 with reasonable guess around 0.25 per month

3) Regime June 2017 till March 2018 –super epidemic regime with nonstationary outbreak (faster increase due and WB hunting surveillance, spatial expansion ~0.75 County per month/3.2% monthly). Infectivity rate is estimated between 0.25 up to 5 with reasonable guess around 0.27 per month

Risk calculator Our estimation is based on a pilot study using the actual spread of the disease in Poland.

http://interdisciplinaryresearch.eu/index.php/asf/

ASF in Poland (in media) - Target

The aim of the study is the quantitative analysis of new protest movements taking into account the following social agents:

(1) Pig breeders 'organizations,

(2) animal welfare organizations,

(3) hunters' organizations and veterinary organizations

The research material will consist of "digital footprints" and, above all, entries in social media across the entire spectrum of social dimensions - eg. For example, interpersonal / institutional relationships, the activities of social movements, or the ideological climate in a given community.

ASF in Poland (in media) - Methods&Outcomes

The longitudinal and quantitative nature of the study will allow a measurable tracking of time-related processes that will be unique, as in Poland, social movements are much less often investigated

Natural language processing methods are used to measure a number of latent variables, e.g. Emotions, the sense of effectiveness of one's own group and the intentions of collective action. Through the analysis of social networks, the relationship structures of process agents, the communication dynamics and the conflict relations between movements are examined.

A very important outcome of the project may be recommendations for practical activities, as our quantitative analyzes will help to understand the specificity of the conflict between different stakeholders of the system under study.

ASF in Poland (in media) - Dynamics

The topic of ASF in Poland in the media practically did not exist from the emergence of the disease in 2014 to the first outbreaks in pig farms in the summer of 2016. Only the presentation of the problem on wild boars and ASF in the open letter of Polish scientists in January 2019

Google search queries

Open letter

ASF in Poland (in media) - Dynamics

Open letter to Prime minister of few thousands scientists

ASF in Poland (in media) - Dynamics

Open letter to Prime minister of few thousands scientists

ASF in Poland (in media) - Agrounia

Farmers represented mainly by the Agrounia organization active in social media (eg Facebook), which organizes mass protests in the mild form of happenings (eg "throwing meat") as well as hard - road blocks.

December 2018, Warsaw, A2

ASF in Poland (in media) – Animal Rights

Animal rights defenders, protest movement without an indicated main player, active especially on Twitter and having influencers as bloggers or streamers. They operate mainly in the area of digital space (eg protest letters) and to a little extent in a particularly engaging ways (eg blocking hunting and demonstrations)

Social media - Avatar

ASF in Poland (in media) – Animal RightsAnimal rights defenders

Wrocław, 12.01.2019

ASF in Poland (in media) – Hunters&Vets

Hunters and environmental / veterinary services, movements involved cognitively in the ASF problem, but entangled in conflict often against their will (like hunters implementing government-determined contingents, or underfunded veterinary services that have more responsibilities due to ASF). They organize themselves mainly on all social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter or closed online forums.

ASF in Poland (in media) – Preliminary Results

812 Tweets with #ASF in Polish language and geolocalized in Poland in time period December 2018-April 2019● PSL (Agricultural party) 129

● Zieloni (Green Party) 14

● PiWet and GIW (Vet Service) 13

● Government (Ministries) 67

● Local Governments (Voivodships) 14

● TVP (national TV) 19

● Farmer_pl 29

● Radio Maryja (St. Mary Radio) 61

● Nauka w Polsce (science in Poland) 30

● AgroPolska 41

● PZŁ (hunters association) 1

ASF in Poland (in media) - SummaryWhat to do:

• Twitter (representative?)• Facebook (eg. Agrounia and farmers associations)• Closed forums (hunter associations)

Thank you!