3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 [email protected] a...

18
1 / - ! "# 1391 & ’ ( ’) 1 2 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ ___ ! "! # $% &’%’ ( + ,- . 1 * 01& 23 2 ) 45 ,6 7 3 +58 04 : 06 / 04 / 93 04 => : 07 / 07 / 95 + A0B C , DE! +F BG = 8 H (8B! ,> 26 8 & IB8J 8K ’-E! LE" , M C + . A0B OP7 8K BQ # R B! "8 DE! K5 . S 8 T"B J , = (8A" & IB8J U 2 B - C & , VF8 , "5 ,! . T"B 8P ="#I B )"# 8 ," C - , &B! 8B 83 , F !BU 8 8I W R! ,8 X DE! ,> #W = 8 ’-E! LE" , (8B! DE! = ( 88 , . = JK 8 S , T"B C- Y , "##I , ) DFN ( T"B "5I G 8 \BU (8 0T] MX5 W 8B ," VQ! +PF (8W ,IB& ,8 88 . +F &B! V43! 8 !-3 ^BJ , Y ,_ , X5 Mathematica T"B C- W "B , 8 "##I ,P ) DFN 2D ( (8A" . +F ( "B W , ’BF &J 0B! B! 2##! "5I G 8 ’,_ , (8 (8 S +J ’,8 ‘B P! ’ , (8 8BJ 2U6 2W , K +6# -3 8 &J D A" , Y 8 (8 ,8 23! ,X5 UDEC PFC2D _E a ,K &J 8W ( S , . (8A" +8 ! ( Y , I !b"6 cB! cB! " 8K d P a 8 8B&B , "8 , (8 8B&B , S ’4Q 8 (8 C- ! . &J (8 \ 0T] & S 2U6 , # VQ! 8B&B +PF ,8 88 BJ . (8 2U6 ,& IB8J X -3 S 2W eQ ( WB eQ +-# f , . ,’ -. ( : S ’ , (8 = ’& IB8J ’"##I T"B C- ’ , -E! LE" , 1 . aX5Bgh +A ’P (C8 ’8 "PU (T8 ’P LE" ,"W8 ,B8 [email protected] 2 . 8 "PU (T8 ’aX5Bgh +A ’P (C8 8 3 . 8X (T8 ’,hB0" P (C8 8" . * \-!C SBi# 0 012’ -2 3’$’ !4 ! 4 3 1395 - ) 4 1 )8 1 2 ) :;< 27 44

Transcript of 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 [email protected] a...

Page 1: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

1 /���� ��- � �� ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� �� ! � "#1391 ��& '� (� �� ')1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

��������� ���� ���� �� ����� ��� ����� ��� ���� ������ � !� "!�

#�� ����$�%� &'�%��' ��(

+� �� ,�-� � � .� 1*' �01& 2�� �����3 ���2 )�45 � ,��6�� � 7����3

+5 ��8�0 4: 06/04/93 �0 4 =��> : 07/07/95

���+

�A0B �� �C��� �� �� , � D��E! +��� F �� ���� �BG� =�� �8 H�� (8B! ,��> 26�� �8 &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� '�-��E! L��E"�� , �

M� � C� +�� ��� .� �A0B ��� O�P7 8��K�� �� ��B�Q � � �#� �R� ���B! �� � �"��8 D��E! ���K�5 �� .S � �8 �T"�B� � ��J� , � �� �

=�� �� (8 A"�� � &�� �I��B�8�J ��U� 2 � ��B�� ��-� � C� ���& , � V�F8 ,� � �"5 � ,�! ��� .�T"�B� � 8 P�� � =�"#I ��B�� �� �

)"#�� �8 ����� , ��"�� �� �C� ��-� , � �&B! 8�B 8��3 � ,� ���� ���F �!�BU �8 8��I �W ��R ! ,8 �� �� ��X� D��E! ,��> � #� W

=�� �8 �� '�-��E! L��E"�� , � (8B! D��E! =�� (��� 8��8 ,�. =�� ���JK �8 S� , � �T"�B� � �C-� Y � �� ����� ,� � �"##I , �

)DFN (�T"�B� � �� � � �"5�I �G� �8 � � \�BU (��8 �0 T] M��X5� �� �� ��� �W 8B� ,�"��� V� Q! +�PF�� � � (8�W ,��IB�& ,��8

8��8 .+��� F �� �&B! � V�43! ��� �8 �� �� � �! -� 3 ^BJ , � Y�� �� ,�_� , � ��X5�Mathematica �T"�B� � �C-� �W �"�B� ,���

�8 �"##I ,�P�)DFN2D (�� (8 A"�� .+��� F �� � (�� �"�B� �W , � �� �� '�BF� �&��J ��0B! �� ��B! 2#�#! �"5�I �G� �8 ',�_� , �

(��8 (��8 S� +J � ',��8 `B�� ���P! ' � � � � , � (��8 8�BJ�� �� 2U 6 2 W , � �K +6 # �-� 3 � � ' � 8 ���&��J D� �

A"�� ,���Y�� �8 (8 ,8�� 2��3! , ���X5�UDEC � PFC2D�_E� �� a��� ,� K �&��J � 8�W (� �� S� ����� , � . �� (8 A"�� �

+��8�������! �� (�� Y �� , ��I��� �!b �"6� c��B! c��B! ���"�� 8��K�� � d ��P a� �8 8B&B , ��"�8 ����� , �(��8 8B&B , �

S� '�4Q� ��� �8 (��8 �C-� ������� ���! � .�&��J(��8 \�� � �0 T] ���& �� S� �� 2U 6 , � � �#� V� Q! 8B&B +�PF�� � ,��8

8�8 � �� �� ��BJ .(��8 �� 2U 6 , &�� �I��B�8�J ��X��� �-� 3 S� 2W eQ� �� (�� �WB�� eQ� +-#� ���f�� � � � , �.

�,'� �-. �(: S� '����� ,� �(��8 =�� ' &�� �I��B�8�J '�"##I �T"�B� � �C-� ' � � , ��-��E! L��E"�� , �

1. a�X�5Bgh � +A� '��P (�C���8 '8��� � �"P�U ( T���8 '��P L��E"�� ,�"W8 ,B���[email protected]

2. 8��� � �"P�U ( T���8 'a�X�5Bgh � +A� '��P ����� (�C���8 � ����8

3 .8X� ( T���8 ',h�B0 " � ��P ����� (�C���8 � �8 "��.

*\ -! C SBi#

0�� 012 ' �-2�3'�$' ���!4� ���!�

��4� ����3��� 1395 �-� )4 ���1� )81 �2 ) �:;<27 ��44

Page 2: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

28 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

1 .���@�

S � �8 �� (� ! �����K � ,� C��P +P�U ��J� , �

M0 ] +������ ���& � ����F , � .V��� '�� Jk ��� �!

)W ��� ���& �� ���P c� � ,��� 7 4! M��X5� � � �� ���

M0 ]+� � .=�� �� (8 A"���� �-��E! , � (��� =��

(8B! D��E!+�� l�Q 2� # ��� �� m� a� ��B�� �� ,� .

(8B! D��E! =�� �8 ��� � �� � )�G� �� Jk L��E"�� ,�

� C� �� V�� � ��> 8� � .��� =�� ��� ���f�� ���!

=�� �� � �� +-#� ��0B! n�� ���!b � � ��0B! ���X� , �

8��8 �� ������� L��E"�� .! S 6�� �� �J�� �8 ��J� ^�

��� '��"#� � W �� SBo� =�� ��� � �W ��8 �8 P ��

p�B� ��PdW� Northparkes ��B�b � �0��"�� �8

Palabora �� �5 W +J �� Y�� '��B�& , 4��5K �8

� � � �� �� D��E! q3� �8 �C��C!Bgh , ����K�5 8� � .

)� �B�W� �8 , ��B�W �"5��� , �"P�U 2� �! ,��� (8 A"��

�� =�� �-��E! �8 , �� #� W +E� �! �� �f�K �8 �"�>I �

��� =�� 8�B L��E"�� ���F � '�"5�I 8B&� 8��8 .(��B��

�8 ��� =�� (��� �� ,��� , �� #� W +E� �! M0 ]

D��E! ,��> l�Q (8B� +�� � �C� �� ���"�� 2�B�

��R !��>I �� ��X� D��E! ,��> �8 , �� #� W '+E�

)"#�� �T"�B� � , � +� ��K)Tollenaar, 2008(.

�I��� 8��B �rW� �8 �T"�B� � , � (8B! ��W � "5� � �� H��

� S�"�W ���W .(8B! ����� � "J � V�F8 O��P! �Q4� H��

S� ,��� �� ,�"�� s��� (8B! +� 4 ���P! � ,� � H��

� )���5 ��W )Pine et al., 2006.( (��8 S���" � sB� ���!

�T"�B� � �T"�B� � � � �8 � (8B! , � ��"#� H�� . �>0

�I��� �� ���� (��8 , � (8B! ����� �� ��� ME� � H��

� 2�C�! �� ��8 )Wanga et al., 2003 .( �� ,� �#� �8

(B�� S� , � (8B! ,� � (��8 'H�� �tP� �� (8 A"�� � �

u�5 �v , �(8 � �PF��� � ,� � ��B� . u�5 S r ,���

(��8 �� , � S� �8 wbB�P �W +� �� ,� � � � W �� � '8��

�I��� a� (8B! �P�-x � �PF�� y���� � �W +�� H��

8���� V� Q! )Rogers et al., 2007.( SB�P �Bx �� ���f��

M� u�5 �I��� �8B� �PQF 8�B �8 �� � 8��P! '(��8 , �

(��8 )W � �#� (��8 S14"�� ' � � � #C� 8��J� S �"6� ' �

(8B! �8 +J�B�C� � �"5�I �G� �8 (��v � H�� ��B�.

(8 � ��� ,� � +�8��3 � S� �� ��B! �� ,�& �� � ,� �

(8B! �PF�� � "5� � 2��3! 'H�� ���W .S� ,��� V�F8 ,� �

(8B! (��8 �� �� & �� � H�� S� 2J�8 �8 � ��BI �� �� � ,�

(��8 c��B! �W �T"�B� � �� � � C� �6 ! � 8B&B , �

(8B! �8 �� � H�� . �I��� �� �58 _! +�� '�T�8 z�x ��

(8B! +� 4 �� ��� �R� (��8 ����� 8��8 H��)Hoek,

1998 .(=�� ���"�� �� ��-� �� ��B! ,���8 , � +�� ,� �

�I��� �58 _! � ����� , ��T"�B� S� ' � �58 _! ,� �

�T"�B� � �C-� , ��"##I Discrete Fracture Network

+�� .S� �P�B! )�] +5��� '�58 _! ,� � �8 ,��I

S� ���� (8B! ,� � ^B#3 �K � "5� ����� � H��

� 8B�)Rogers et al., 2006.( S� �8 � '�58 _! ,� �

�I��� O��P! �T"�B� � , � '�58 _! � ,� K \�BU �� �

S� S� �� (8 A"�� � � S� ��� (��8 )"#�� ��0B! , �� �

�� � ,�P��8 �"5��� �-!�� ��#�� S� 'B� �X�� S� ',�P�

S� �� � � �f�� ,�� 8��� W � �� � , � �0�B" , �

_! , ����K�5 �58 )�3AU '��B��B �QJ � ��B��B ,�

(��v (� 8 �� ��B� .

(��8 �58 _! , ��"�� (����� �� �,��I � ����� , �

2��3!� +��� ,� K , ����K .+5��� , � )�] �8 ��I

c�& =�� � ,��KS � �8 \ �1x� =��8� , � ��J� , �

�� )6 ��B"� �W (8B�� )���5 �� � C� ��� \ �1x� �� ,8

�B��J� �� �� b � +�A�W � (8B! , � 8��K +��� H�� . �>0

� )���5 � C� ��� ,� K \ �1x� { �� �� �W 8B�

c�& �I��� '(�� ,��K (8B! , � ���P! ,�"�� +�A�W � H��

��B�.

S� �f�� y�B! (�� (8�8 �P�B! (��8 �C-� �58 _! , �

Baecher S � �8 ��� C�� �1977 B� �X�� � Veneziano �8

S �1978 S� |X& ��"#� ���� ��� �8 (�� ����� �� , � .

S� ��� �8 �I��� � '8��J� S �"6� 2 � (��8 �� �� �

Page 3: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 29

________________________________________________________________________________________________

+�& ��U 5 � ,��8 �� ��BJ �� ,��8 S� ,� K �Bx

(�� =�"#I � 8 P�� �I��� �� � '���)�� � ( 2�08 �� (��8

(����� \1C� �xB�� y���� 8B&� Y�� � �K ���4 ,��I

+�� (��� �"J�8� . �� � ���� ��R ! �� �&B! � �0 4 ��� �8

�C-� �58 _! S� 'H�� (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J �� (��8

� �"5�I �G� �8 � (��8 { ���� (��8 SBx (����� ,� K �I��

S� � B� �X�� S� +�� (�� �"J � �-!�� ��#�� , � .

(8�8 �� (8 A"�� � ���f�� a� �� (�� +��8�� ����� , �

�C-� ,�P��8 ����� S� ����� �8 ,��5� d ��P

(��8 (8B! , � �"5 � �P�B! �58 _! S� �� (8 A"�� � H��

+�� (�� ���! . �� � �� �� (8 A"�� � ,�P��8 ,�W �BG� ���

� ��� Y�� �#�B� ��X5�Mathematica Y � ��DFN2D (�� ���!

(8�8 { ���� +�� �8 F �W �&��J '(�� +��8�� , �

�� �� '�BF� 2#�#! � X�h �"5�I �G� �8 ',�_� , �

(��8 (��8 S� +J � ',��8 `B�� ���P! ' � � � � , � , �

6 2 W(��8 8�BJ�� �� 2U �K +6 # �-� 3 � � ' �

8 ���&��J Y�� �8 (8 A"�� ,��� D� � 2��3! , ���X5�

,8�� UDEC � PFC2D �� a��� ,� K �&��J �

�_E� ��8 ����� �� S� +J � ����� , �.

2 .A�BC�D� �!E�

S�(8B! �T�� � +P�-x '(��8 �C-� �58 _! , � H�� , �

(��8 �� (��8 �C-� ����� �� (8 A"�� � �� ��8 ,�U �� \�BU

�I��� � ����� \ �UB_J � t5 �8 �"##I �� �W �� �

(�� O��P! �58 _! �Bx � M� �� ��� ��8)Pine et al.,

2006 .(�B�8 � \ P0 Q �"�B b � S � �81980 �� � �B#���

S � �81983 � �� S �� � ��& � ������! ���� �8 ��B!

S� 8��� W � vK �Q4� +#��8 �58 _! , �)Hudson and La

Pointe, 1980, Robinson, 1983 .(X"�B���8 �8 ��"���� �

S �1988 �58 _! S� a� �"5�I �G� �8 � �W ��8B�� �����

��U 5 '+�& �8 \����o! � � ,��8 �C-� '�T"�B� � ��

�PF�� (��8 � 8 �� �� ,�! 8�W)Dershowitz and Einstein,

1988( . S � �8 BT�� � � +#�� 1988 ��� �P�B! �� Y��F�

��8B�� `B�� ,���� 2��3! ���� �8 YB�A)Priest and

Samaniego, 1988.( ����� �8 �-!�� ��#�� ����� S� ,

, ����K�5 � } -!���� ��"���� � d�� y�B! (��8 8 �� ,�

S � �81991 )Reyes and Einstein,1991( ~ ����� S� �

S � �8 ��� C�� � 2!� y�B! (�� ����� �C�� C1991

)Martel et al., 1991( � �� ��B�� �T�8 �� ��B! S� , � , �

+#��8 (�� (8�8 �P�B! �58 _! .+�8��3 S� ��� , � ' �

��S� �� ��B! (��� �8 2C� � (��8 �"�8 �8 y45 ,� �

(��8 �"�8 c��B! (8�"#I \����o! ����� �P�B! �� �� ' �

S � �8 B� y�B! �"5��� �-!�� ��#�� ,�P��8 S�1992

��)Yu, 1992( . S � �8 +#�� 1993 �� �58 _! S�

(��8 �K �8 �W 8B�� ����� �� ,�P�a#�8 \�B_� � , �

�8(�� (�� u�5 ,� ��� . �QF ,��� �58 _! ��8 4 S� ��� �8

)"��BT0� ����� �� X�� (��8 �� '+#�� y�B! (�� ����� , �

��B� � ��0B! D� � , � c��B!)Priest, 1993.( � ��B��B��

S � �8 M��� C��1995 �-!�� ��#�� ,�P��8 S�

��8�8 �P�B! �P� �� �� �� �"5��� )Ivanova et al., 1995 .(

S � �8 ��� C�� � `1�!bBW2004 ���! �� Y��F� S� ,

(8B! ,��� ,�P� �� �58 _! (��8 �C-� d�& �� �T��

� +� 4 ���E! ,��� ,���& ���K�5 ����� � +��B�8

2C����o! ��8B�� �P� �� �8 �T�� `B�� ,��> )Kulatilake

et al., 2004.( S � �8 �P�B! X�� ��J� , � �� �58 _! S�

�R� SBx � �I��� � c��B! ��� �T"#��� \��R� ����� �BG�

(8B! �C�� C � �C�� C����� � "5� �� (��8 (��8 H�� '��8

S� { �� �� +�� (�� Y �� '���� , � . ,�P��8 S�

S � �8 H��& � � � -v � y�B! (�� �����2008

)Baghbanan and Jing, 2008( �� S� � ,�P� (�� �����

S � �8 8�8 � �� y�B!2010 )Xu And Dowd, 2010( �

S � �8 M��� C�� � H�� ���f��2012 )Bang et al.,

2012( � ���� ��B! ��B�� ��B�� 8����� sB� ��� �� �� � . �8

S � , �1386 !1393 ,��6�� � � ,��8BI '���� '�45 �

S� H�� (8B! ,�P� �� ,� � (��8 , � �8 =�� �8 �� �

�T"�B� � )"#�� a#�8 )"#�� � 8��3 � , � �58 _! , �

Page 4: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

30 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Y�� y�3 �8 � ��� �8 C�"�" ,��X5� ��B�� � ,�3DGM ��

��8�8 �P�B! . � �� 8�B �&��J >J� +��� F X�� � ��� ��� �8

Y�� , ���X5�UDEC '3DEC �DDA 8��8 8B&�) � ����

',��6�� �1386�� � � ���� ' ,��61388 � ,��8BI '

',��6�� �1392 ',��6�� � � ,��8BI '1393 ( ���!���&

S� �� (8 A"�� 8�B �8 (�� Y �� , �� W �C-� ,� �

�T"�B� � (��8 \�� � �"##I , � ,��� ��6 ,��8

(8B! �"��� +J �� �� }B�� �WB�� D��E! =�� �8 H��

S � �8 ��� C�� � ��&��2014 +��)Rogers et al., 2014(.

3 .F� �4� ����� ������ ���� �C� �'GH'

S� �8 ,� � L "�"�� � ����� 2 � ��W (B�� '�58 _! , �

�� � '+�PFB)(�����(+�& ' �I��� �T�8 � ,��8 , �

(��8 ����� c��B! � �58 _! , ���o" ��B�� �� � , �

S� �8B� �58 _! , �- �W +�� ,� K ,� � 8B� ���BJ � .

=�� ��� ���& �� ##I �T"�B� � �C-� �58 _! , � �"

S� =�� ��� '+�� �T"�B� � )"#�� 8��8 �P� ,� � , �

(B�� �� �� H�� (8B! �� �� 8 �� ,� K , .����B� � W ��� ,

�T"�B� � ,�� +J � (�� � , �-�� �X , � � �

+��8�� �T"�B� � ����� ��BJ , � a� �8 8B&B , �

� Y �� �4Q� 8��I .��"� '(����� 2 � ��BJ ��� \�� � 8

(��8 +�� ,��8.

=�� S� ��U� , ��X ,���8 �"##I �T"�B� � �C-� ,� �

=�� �T�8 �� +-#� S� SB�P , � +�� ,� � . =�� ���

D� � ��3 { �4 � ��� # ,��� �K �� ��B! ���� +�� �!

�T"�B� � ����� ��BJ O�UB! ,��� (��8 � �X , � �

V�F8 � �#� (B�� �� �! , � +�� { �4 ��X� �"�B� .

(��8 )"#�� ��T�� � =�� ��� ���f�� �� �� � \�BU

� ����� �_E� � e7�� ��BJ O�UB! � 2�� ��� '��W

� C� �T"�B� � )"#�� ,���W +�� ��> .)� �I��� ���!

,��� �� ,��> ���! � � C�K ��# �W +�� ��� =�� ���

S� (8�8 ,� � � (�� +��8�� , �� )���5 �4Q� � ���� ��W

(��8 �PF�� ����� ��BJ S� Y T�� �8 � ,� �

+�8 �� ����BJ �F � (8�BE�)Rogers et al., 2014(.

I��1 .S� , �� ���� (��8 �"�8 a� ,��� ,� �

S� eQ� 8 �� ,� �

) , ���X 'Y (

(��8 �"�8 (��8 }BQJ ��0B!

(��8 XW� +�PFB ��0B! ��B��B ���K�5 { �� �� �

+�5 �� ,�P��8 S� �BF� � ,��B_! �&��J 8 ��O�"E , �

�0 T] � \�� (��8 �R� SBx ,� K c��B! � (��8 D�� ,� K c��B! �

(8�8 �5�P,8��� , �

Page 5: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 31

________________________________________________________________________________________________

(��8 �"�8 �� �� �"##I �T"�B� � �C-� S� +J � ,���

�A0B � �] �� +�� � �� ��� ,:

+�& S �"6� �0 T] c� ! ~ O0� (��8 ,��8 �

\�� � �0 T] ~ ^(��8 ,��8

(����� \����o! S �"6� �0 T] c� ! ~ �)�� � ((��8 �

(��8 XW�� +�PFB ~ \ �

S� , �� ���� 2C� �8 (��8 �"�8 a� ,��� ,� �1 � ��

+�� (�� (8�8.

���K�5 �� �0�B" 8��� W � ,�P��8 , t5 �8 (��8 �"�8 a�

� ��0B! �58 _!8B� .

S�� ���K�5 ~ :�B��B �C-� (��8 XW� ��0B! ,��� �T�� �

(��8 �0 T] { ���� ,��8

Y�8 ���K�5 ~ : c� ! �� (��8 D�� ���4 �58 _! ^ E"��

D�� S �"6� �0 T]

YB� ���K�5 ~ : c� ! �� (��8 �R� SBx ���4 �58 _! ^ E"��

�K S �"6� �0 T]

��B�� � (�� ���! � ��� �8DFN2DY�� y�3 �8 �W ' ,��X5�

Mathemtica �G� 8�B (8 A"�� �� �� '+�� (�� �"�B�

+��� F �K �� �J�� �W (�� ��-P! �� � '+�� 8�5 �� �_3� �

+�� (�� (� �� ��K ���"�� �� ��E� �� 2�k �8:

- ��B�� � C� (��8 �� �58 _! ,��I �� (�� ��0B! , �

��B�� �� '��W \�B_� � � (��8 �"�8 �� a�CA!

��B��60 %(��8 �� �58 _! \�B_� (�� �"J � , �

��B� ^ E"��.

- S� 8 �� � C� X�h �"5�I �G��8 � �-!�� ��#�� , �

�"�8 8��P! { ���� (�BE08 8��P! �� (��8 �"�8 ��

(��8 �.

- ��B�� , ���X�� �8B� ���8 ��X� ���P! ,��� ,��8��

'(�� �"J � S� �8 O�"E , � "��� �8 �QJ �0 T]

08 �� \�B_� � � (��8 �"�8 �� a�CA! �� ��� W (�BE

S� ���� -"�� �BG� �� ��W.

- �� a�CA! �� �C�5��I � �BF� �&��J 8 �� � C�

��W \�B_� � (��8 �"�8.

- ��B�� ��X�� �8B� ���8(��8 �� ,��I �A0B { ���� � , �

��B�� ��B�� �� '�R� SBx � D�� ���& �� ,8���

K �P & a�CA!(��8 ,� �R� SBx � , �)�� � ( ���

1/0 !8/0 �".

- `B�� 2�C�! � C� (��8 cx 4! �� 2 W , � � �

�-� 3 c��B! c��B! )���! (���� �� ��K +6 # ,

`B�� +6 # ,� K �.

- �A0B � �! �&��J � C� ��6� �8 (�� 8 �� , �

S� (� K � c��B! c��B! ',� � �K , � � �� � ��B�� ��B�

`B�� +6 # '�R� SBx 'D�� (�� 2�C�! , �.

- +�5 �� (�� �"J � S� �� �&��J �"5�I � C�

Y�� ,8��� ,8�� , ���X5�UDEC �PFC2D �

(��8 sB� a�CA! � �R� SBx '(��8 �"�8 { ���� �...

- S� ���C! � C� '(�BE08 ���4 �� �58 _! ,� �

�#� 4 �A0B , � �0 T] , �(��8 \�� � �QJ ,��8

S� �3Q� ,� K c��B! c��B! )���! � �T��C� � �

�A0B ��� �� a��� �.

4 .���� �@D!� ����

(��8 ME� �� �C� ,� T� \ �UB_J \ P0 Q �8 )� , �

(8B! ����� (8�8 ���! 26�� ���"�� �� � +�� H�� �

S� ,��� � ^B#3 ����� ,� � 8B� . ��� �� \ ����

� 8�W a�CA! ME���� �� �� ��B!:

- +��8��

- �"�8 a�CA! � )���! (��8 �

- ,� K 2��3!

4-1 .(��8 +��8�� �

(����� �B��J� ,�� �� ,��I �� �W +�X ��� �� �T�� , �

c��� �4Q� � (8 A"�� +��8�� ,��� ,�! ��8�BJ�� '8B�

+�� .�I��� �T"�B� � ����� , � ��� � +�& � D��

�K { �4 ��X� \ �UB_J �T�8 � (����� 'D�� � � ���B!

8B� +��8�� .��� } -!�� �T"�B� � (��I ��� �� �� X�� �

Page 6: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

32 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

�B��J� �8 +�� (�� � 2� F �T�� , � .��X� �4� ���!

�B��J� �8B-� {�"�8 �8 =�� ��� ���F ��R ! +3! ' �

�K �"5�I �� � �I8��B� � � A�� �� � ��� �8 ��� �

+�� �� �I M�B .c�& \ �1x� �0 4 ��� �8 (�� ,��K

���W 8�B �8�T"�B� � , �8 �� (8 A"�� � (��8 { �4 � , �

(�� � +��8�� yJ =�� +�� (�K +�8 �� +��8�� .

8���� "�� �W +�� ��� +��8�� yJ =�� �8 �&B! 2� F �"C�

� =�� ��� ,��� �� �& SB-F 2� F �� � cF�� �8 � 8���� 8B&

(8�8 ��B"� �W 8�8 ���o! ,B3� �� �� =�� \ �gX& Y�b , �

c�& �� �G� 8�B z�� ,��� ��3 y���� � � 8B�� ,��K

(8B! 8�8 V� Q! H�� .

�� �T�� X��! �Q# lBQ� +��8�� yJ =�� �8��BI ,�

� ^ E"�� ��U 5 � (����� �� +-#� �W ��B� ,��8

�T"�B� � ��� � ��X� � . 2 � �B��J� �� � =�� ��� �8

150 !300 �� �"�� a� 2F��6 � (8B� �T"�B� �50 �U�8

�K �� � (�� � 2� F �)Priest, 1993.(

(��8 +��8�� \ ���� yJ �� (8 A"�� � ��P (8��3 �8 �

+��8�� �����! \���B �� �� � (8 K , � , �BC� ,� �

�� Y �� ,� A6 .(��8 � �! =�� ��� �8 yJ �W �� �

� cQF �� +��8�� (����� ���W ���� ,��I . �� ,8 �� 8��P! �8

�����! �T"#C� � �I��8�J 2�08 �� �4Q� �8 8B&B , �

(8B! ,b � +��8�� � C� '�W J (� ��� 8B&� � � H��

+�� �"���� 8B&� .(8�8 �����! �� � �� 8�B , � �8 �

� , ����! , ��"�� � ��8�I +��8�� O�"E �� A!�

(��8 ����� ��U 5 'D�� 'D�� +�& 2 � � ',��8

�" � { ��W �� (8 A"�� � =�"#I � �I��� '�I��� �

(����� �� ,��I .+�8 ,��� (��8 �� +��8 ,��8 �� �� � , �

(��8 +�� Y�b (�� +��8�� ��B� )�#4! (��I �� �� � .

(��8 8��P! �� ��K , �"�� �8 �� �W � (��8 � 8B�)n ( 8��P!

(��8 �K , �"�� a� y45 �W �� � � (��8 � 8B�)m ( 8��P! �

(��8 ��� (��8 �K , �"�� �8 �� a� ��� �W �� � 8B�)p (

�A0B ��� �� }B�� 8��B �� }B�� �B"� �8Termination

Y�5 �8 �� +-R �T"�B� � +��8�� �B_E , � . d��

D���7R0 'R1 �R2 �� � y���� �8�8 � �� �BG� ��

(��8 �Q��� V� Q � � �-� 3 ��� , ��B�)Kulatilake et

al., 1996 :(

) 01(

�� = � �� + � + ⁄ �� = � �� + � + ⁄ � = �� + � + ⁄

(8 � ,��� �����! �� 8��P! sB� �8 +��8�� yJ ,� �

D� � �� (8�8 ��E�! �! . 2C� �82 �����! a� �� �� ��

+�� (�� ����� +��8�� yJ (���� ��. S��& �81 �U1J ,�

� � +�P7� �� (��8 �� � +�� (�� ����� (�� +��8�� , �.

I��2. �����! �� �C�+��8�� yJ � �P0 Q 8�B , �

Page 7: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 33

________________________________________________________________________________________________

����1. �U1J� � +�P7� �� ,� (��8 �� � (�� +��8�� , �

���� �'�B� �( � � sB�(��8 �� � �(%)

R0 R1 R2

300 5 35 60

(��8 +-R �� ��B! Y�� �K SBx �W �� � (����� �6 �� � ,��I

a]BW (�������5 , QJ ��B�� �� +�� �!truncation bias

� (���BJ 8B� .(��8 ���f�� �K SBx �W �� � 2�08 �� �

��� (��8 �T�� �B��J� �8B� 8��3 , QJ ��B�� �� '8B�

(�������5censoring bias (�� �"J �� +��)Priest and

Hudson, 1976, Hudson and Priest, 1983 .( (����� ��R !

+��8�� cFB �8 (����� eQ� M� W � �� (�������5 , QJ

� '(��8 8�8 M� W ��B! .V�43! ��� �8 SBx1/0 ,��� �"

+�� (�� ^ E"�� (����� �6 .�B��J� ^ E"�� �T�� , �

(��8 (����� ����� �8 �I�X� w "-#� (����� ,���8 X�� (�� , �

��"#� 8B&B . 2� F (�������5 , QJ ����� ��+#�� �&B! .

(��8 �U�8 �W �K �� ���f�� �K , �"�� �8 �� �W �� � 2� F

� � '+�� (�� � � �� R2 � �W +�� �"��� � �#� ' �� ��B!

)�] X�� (�������5 , QJ 8�W ��B .

4-2 .�"�8 a�CA! � )���!(��8 �

�"�8 �� �&B! � (��8 �� �� a� �� �8 a�CA! 2� F , �

( T"#�� �A0B , �-�� '+��8�� 'D�� +�& � D�� , �

�"�8 � �! -��4! �W �� �E� (��8 ( T"#�� �8 � , �

�K ������5 ��X� �W '8��8 8B&� O�"E � #C� w -��4! X�� �

+�� .�"�8 ���W �"�� a�CA! � ��E�! ,��� �>0 (��8 ' �

��� (��8 , +�� (�� 2��3! C� \�B_� 8B&B , � . �

B!�4Q� �8 (��8 �"��� +��8�� � C� �C��� �� �& 8�B ,

�� (��#� 8��P! ���� �� �>0 +��8 8B&� �P0 Q.

(8�8 �� (8 A"�� �W ,�P� ��6� �� �&B! � �5�x �� , �

�T"�B� � �C-� S� +J � ,��� (�� +��8�� �"##I , �

�� D��E! � &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� (8B! ,��> H��

������5 ��X� �>0 '+�� �4Q� (��8 �"�8 a� `��� ��]��

� �K SBx � D�� +�& 'D�� ��8 4 �� �&B! � 'X�� ���B!

�� � ��>I��R ! � �#�. 2��3! { ���� �8 (�� Y �� , �

Y�� ��X5�Dips 8��P!4 +�� ��E�! 2� F (��8 XW��!

) 2C�3.(

I��3. (��8 XW��! �B"�W+��8�� �4Q� �8 ��K a�CA! � �

Page 8: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

34 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

4-3 .2��3! �I��� ,� K , � �C-� ����� , �(��8 �

����� , ��"�� \ �UB_J ������T"�B� � � { �� '

S� ,� � ����� , � ,� K � �58 _! +��. =��8�

(8�8 �K c��B! c� ! , �-�� (��8 �� , ��"�� ���P! 2 � �

+�� (��8 �"�8 �K �8 �"�� . 8B&B \� A! ,�Bi! �G� ��

�C�� C , ����K�5 �8 \� A! �� �� � (��8 c��B! c��B! �8

� 8 �� �� (��8 �W +�� �A�"E ��W . c��B! S r ,���

��B! 8 �� q� � M�! +J�B�C�c , ����K�5 � �� �� , �

c��B! 8 �� q� � (��f� �A0B �8 S �� �b , � �R� SBx ,

�� ���BJ (��8 )Dershowitz and Einstein,1988.(

�I��� ,� ���& � (��8 �"�8 �� a�CA! � (��8 , � , �

'�R� SBx � �0 T] 'D�� +�& 'D�� ���& �� �K �� }B��

K \ P0 Q ,��� Y�b \ �1x�S� � ,� �58 _! ,� �

� )���588�I .Y�� �� (8 A"�� � ��X5� ,� KEasyfit c� ! '

S �"6� �0 T] �A0B ����� , � (�� +��8�� �� 8��K�� .

(8�8 c��B! �W ��7�5 ��� �8B�K ,��� �� (�� +��8�� , �

S �"6� �0 T] c� ! � J ,BT0� a�Probability Density

Function � ,��� �B�K �� '��J � ��W =���� ���"�� , �

Goodness of Fit �� (8 A"�� .�B�K ��� �P��B! ���"�� �

(8�8 �� �W (����� , � � =���� (�� ,��I � �� �� 8B�

� ���8 .�B�K �� V�43! ��� �8 =���� ���"�� , �

~ �] � H��0��8 ~ �B����K 'z��B����� ~ z��IB�0BW

BC�� D�� +�& 'D�� S �"6� �0 T] c� ! �� ���� ,��� ��

(��8 �R� SBx � +�� (�� (8 A"�� �.

z��B����� ~ z��IB�0BW �B�K : ��7�5 ��E�! ,���

� (8�� � C� �"�B� c��B! 8B� . c� ! { �� �� �B�K ���

���! �P�! c��B!)ECDF(Empirical Cumulative

Distribution Function �� ��+�� (�� (8 .��B�� , �

�58 _!nxxx ...,,, 21 �P�! c��B! c� ! � �P��B! ��

)(xF ����T� �G� �8 . (8 A"�� � ���! �P�! c��B! c� !

+�� (�� (8�8 � �� ��� �Q��� ��

) 02( [ ]xnobservatioofNumbern

xFn ≤= .1

)(

(� Kz��IB�0BW ~���z��B��)D( ���"I�X� { �� ��

� ,�Bi! �P�! c��B! c� ! ��� z1"J� +��� ���!

� ��K.

) 03(

−−−=≤≤

)(,1

)(max1

iini

xFn

i

n

ixFD

�B�K �B����K ~0��8 (�� � �P�! c��B! c� ! =���� H��

� �#� 4 �G� 8�B �P�! c��B! c� ! � �� (�� ��W . ���

�B�K �� +-#� �B�Kz��IB�0BW ~���(8�8 �� z��B�� , �

� ,�"��� ��� ��� 6 ��8 . (� K�B����K-0��8 H��)2A (

+�� (�� O��P! ��� ���

) 04( [ ]∑=

+−−+−−−=n

niini xFxFi

nnA ))(1ln()(ln).12(

11

2

� ~ �] �B�KBC��� c��B! Y��W �� �W �P & �8B�K ,���

� ,��� +�� �"5�I ���F (8 A"�� 8�B ��W . �� �B�K ���

(8�8 ,�� �"�8 , � (�� ,���binned data � S ��� '8B�

�T�BT] �� �B�K (� K ���4 d �"�8 8��8 �T"#� ,��� .

(� K �]- �BC� ��The Chi-Squared statistic )2x ( V� Q

+�� (�� O��P! ���

) 05( ,)(

1

22 ∑

=

−=k

i i

ii

E

EOx

�K �8 �WiO �"�8 (�� (�� � ������5i � 'iE ������5

� �-� 3 ��� �Q��� �� � (8B� � G"�� 8�B 8B�.

) 06( ),()( 12 xFxFEi −= �K �8 �W)(xF '�B�K +3! S �"6� c��B! �P�! c��B! c� !

1x �2x���W ' � �"�8 , � ��� �.

�E� 8 �"�� eQ� �8)α( (� K ���4 �I� �B�K , �

z��IB�0BW ~���z��B�� )D(�B����K ' ~0��8H�� )2A(

�� ~ �]BC���)2x (�K ����3� ���4 �� �"��� �'�� �

�� ���BJ 8� c��B! 2C� ��7�5 .�� & �8 ��] ��7�5 �W

(� K �]�� �� � �"��8 8B&� ��o" a� ,��� O�"E c��B!

c��B! �� a��� �8 (�� Y �� �B�K �"�W ,8 ���� , �

�� ���BJ �"J �� c��B! ���"�� ��B�� �� c��B! �K '�� � . ��

��8 4α �����01/0 �05/0 u�5 �� ���� ,��� wbB�P '

��! null hypothesis (H0) O�"E , �8 �"�� eQ� �8

� (8 A"�� 8B� . ���4 8��B D�v� �8α �����05/0 (8 A"��

Page 9: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 35

________________________________________________________________________________________________

� +�� (�� (8 A"�� ���4 ���� �� X�� �0 4 ��� �8 8B� .

�U1J(��8 �"�8 ,� K 2��3! �� ,� �� , � �8 (�� +��8

S��&2 +�� (�� �����.

����2. �"�8 ����� , ��"�� ,� K 2��3! �U1J (��8 (�� +��8�� , �

����+�&,��8

�0 T]

3Q��) (

�R� SBx)�"(

���� D��)�&�8( D�� +�&)�&�8( (X��)P20(

c� !

c��B!

��T� � z��3��

8���� "��

c� !

c��B!

��T� � z��3��

8���� "��

c� !

c��B!

�"��

+�PFB

�"��

{ �4)s(

��T� � z��3��

8���� "�� 1 S �� 3/79 91/6 S �� 7/173 25/18 1/5 �b

S ��

62/0- 77/0 72/0 57/0

2 S �� 5/75 66/5 S �� 4/356 92/13 44/4 �b

S ��

79/0- 83/0 54/0 63/0

3 S �� 8/50 37/8 S �� 218 08/17 2/4 �b

S ��

92/0- 96/0 67/0 78/0

4 S �� 3/55 6/11 S �� 5/312 8/10 6/2 �b

S ��

95/0- 68/0 49/0 37/0

O0�- +�& c��B! ,��8

�T"5 � +�& (��8 +�& � D�� ����� �A0B �8 2 � �

+�� D�� .S� +0 6 �8 �A0B �8 ��� �� ,�P� �� ,� �

��0B! 8BJ ,� K c��B! c� ! �� �&B! � � 24"# \�BU

� c��B! �� ��K ��� �T"#-�� 8B&� \�BU �8 � ��B�

� (8 A"�� Y �T��� � ���5 (��o" ��] c��B! 88�I . +0 6 �8

D�� ,�P��8 ���BJ (8 � �G� 8�B �3AU �8 (��8 ,�� �

�� .S� ,��� ,�� � D�� \����o! ��! �� ��� �� ,� �

+�� �G�� .(��8 �"�8 �8 (�� Y �� V�43! �8 (� �� ,1 �

2 (��8 �"�8 ��"#� �4Q� ��U� , � . (��8 �"�8 �8 ���

�-�� +�& � � #C� w -��4! ,8��"� '������5 ���"��� ,���8

� z1"J�180 �&�8 �G� 8�B �3AU ����� �� ��"#� ,�

�3AU ',�P� �8 ����� S� +J � ,��� 8��"� � ,�

(��8 �"�8 �8 ��� � � #C� +�� (�� �"5�I �G� �8 . �8

S��&2 c��B! c��B! (���� �� D�� +�& � D�� ��8 4

�K +�� (�� ����� � . �� �T"5 � +�& c��B! ���P! �BG� ��

B�K H��0��8 ~ �B����� =���� �)A-D( +�� (�� (8 A"��.

^- �R� SBx c��B!)�� � (

+�� �B��J� eQ� � (��8 8�BJ�� �� �� � '(��8 �R� SBx .

(����� � (��8 �3AU =�"#I �T� �� SBx ��� `B�� , , �

+�� �T�� )Sari, 2009 .(�T"�B� � �R� SBx �"#��8 �� �

(����� �� �K ��R ! +�& `B�� 2�C�! +�� �C� �W �� �

M� ,��� '��B� (8B! � "5� ���� �I��B�8�J ��X� � H��

+�� )� �K , &�� . �R� SBx c��B! � d� ���� 'y�B"

^B#3 (��8 �"�8 �� ,��� ��� \ �1x� '�T"�B� �

� (8B! �58 _! ����� S� ���! ,��� �W ��B� H�� , �

(��8 ��"#� � �� 8�B ��8.

(��8 )�4"# +��8�� �C��� 2�0�� (8B! 2J�8 �8 � �8 H��

� u�5 ����� �� +�� �C���v 2�� (����� �W 8B� , �

�� (��8 ,�P� �I��� ,���8 � �� "� � �� � ,� K , �

M� �� �� (�K +��� ��"#� ,�P��8 , �)Xu and Dowd,

2010 .(=���� ���"�� �B�W ! ,��� (�� 8 ���� , � c��B!

(��8 �R� SBx �� �� c��B! ',�P��8 +��8�� �� 2U 6 , �

�A�)Kulatilake et al., 2003, Baecher, 1983, Zadhesh

et al., 2013 ( S �� �b ')Priest, 1993, Zhang and

Einstein, 2000, Wu and Wang, 2002 ( I � )Priest,

1993, Zhang and Einstein, 2000 (+�� (8B� .

�#� 4 �� "� �B�K , �B�K 2 � =���� ���"�� , �

z��IB�0BW-z��B����� )K-S( H��0��8 ~ �B����� ')A-D(

�] �B�K �- �BC� ��)Ch-S( (��8 SBx ,��� +��8�� , �

�B��J� �8 (�� 2C� �8 �P0 Q 8�B , �5 (�� (8�8 � ��

+�� .�b c��B! c� ! �"��� ,� I� � '�� "� ,��� �� S ��

Page 10: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

36 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

� ��� ! (��8 SBx c��B! �� c� ! ��� ��W 2C� �W '��W

+�� ��� \�BU:

)7( 0

−−=2

ln21

exp2

1)(

σµ

πσx

xxf

(��8 �"�8 SBx �� (�� =���� c��B! c� ! ��B�� ��B�� ��,1

2C� �84 c��B! \ _E� '+�� (�� (8�8 � �� �� c��B!

S��& �8 (��8 �"�82 +�� (�� �����.

I��4. (��8 �"�8 �R� SBx �� (�� =���� S �� �b c��B! c� !1 (� K (���� �� �K , �

O0�

^

\

I��5. �#� 4 �� "�O0� �R� SBx �� =���� ���"�� �B�K , ( (��8 �"�81 ^ ( (��8 �"�82 � ( (��8 �"�83 \ ( (��8 �"�84

0.1207

0.61891

1.2688

0.14752

0.76873 2.9824

0.19305

1.4798

4.139

K-S A-D Ch-S

Goodness of Fit Test

0.1207

0.61891

1.2688

0.14752

0.76873

2.9824

0.19305

1.4798

4.139

K-S A-D Ch-S

Goodness of Fit Test

0.14927

0.45944

0.5847

0.23004

1.4795

2.2928

0.23837

1.4776

1.503

K-S A-D Ch-S

Goodness of Fit Test

0.14414

0.39201

5.73E-02

0.27194

1.1891

0.23771

0.17197

0.76805

0.41611

K-S A-D Ch-S

Goodness of Fit Test

Page 11: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 37

________________________________________________________________________________________________

&- ���� �C��+ ��'�

�T"�B� � �0 T] �T"�B� � 8��P! 2U� �8 H�� , � �� �

(8B! �6�� � '�6�� �K �W +�� H�� � +6 # ')6 ���B!

�� � SBx � .

�� ���BJ q� � H�� (8B! a� �� ,�P� �� ���"�8 Y��

(����� (��8 \�� � �0 T] ��6 ,��I \�B_� ,��8

�� � �C���v � 2C� ')�4"# . �W +�� �0 6 �8 ���

(����� ����� ,��I))�4"# (�"�� ��� \�B_� �� ,�P� a

)�� �I � � +��8�� yJ SBx �8 ( ,�P� �8 �) eQ� �8

(��B�8 ' �2�B! (��v � �( +�� Y �� 2� F �I8 � ��.

(��8 �0 T] ,�P��8 ,��8)P20((��8 2W 8��P! \�BU �� ' �

� O��P! (�� (8�8 +6 # �� 8B� . '�P� �8 �8 (��8 \��

P21 (�� (8�8 +6 # 2J�8 �8 (��8 ��W SBx ��B�� �� '

� O��P! +�� { �4 �� 24"# �W 8B� .P21 �"�8 8��P! '

(��8 �(��8 8��P! � (��8 �� � ' �G� �8 �� 8B&B , �

� 8��I .

�P�� (�f� +��8�� =�� �� (8 A"�� � �0 4 ��� �8

(��8 �" a� ^B]� ] a� �� (8 A"�� � ���8 2� F , �

M �C-� ,���8 �P�� ,���10 �"� � +��8�� �P�� �"

����) 2C�6 .((��8 (����� M yJ �� � cx 4" , � ,��I

(��8 ��W 8��P! � �" a� ^B]� ] �8 (�� =� �� , �

������ O��P! (��8 �3Q� �0 T] ��B�� �� �P . ��8 4

P20 +�� (�� �-� 3 �� I��& \�B_� (��8 �"�8 �� ,���

) S��&2.(

I��6. (����� (��8 �0 T] ,��I )P20(

5 . ���� ��� ���� I-:�

�� ��W�Bx=�� �8 �I��B�8�J eQ� �� �-��E! , �

�� ��!� -� �W +�� (�� O��P! : ' &�� �I��B�8�J

��B� R �I��B�8�J � ��0�� �I��B�8�J)Brown, 2003,

Laubscher, 2003 .(

Page 12: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

38 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

O0� ( &�� �I��8�J Insitue Fragmentation : 2 �

`B�� �� �W �� � ,� C��P \ ���� s��� �� 2-F �P�-x �Bx

(8B! �8 ����8 8B&� H�� .(��8 ����B� �I��B�8�J ��� �� �

� 2C� ����8 8B&� (8B! �8 2-F �� �W 8��I .

^ (��0�� �I��B�8�J Primary Fragmentation : �3 ��

`B�� 'D��E! \ ���� s��� � =����� 8 �� �� #�� , �

� 2C� ��0�� M��8�J � (�� ��& D��E! , t5 8��I.

L (��B� R �I��B�8�JSecondary Fragmentation : ���

eQ� �� H�� �����& � � �� ��# SBx �8 M��8�J

�B"� �� �B-� � D��E! n� ���E! �� �8 �� L��J ! ���E!

� ��8.

�I��B�8�J ��X� ���P! '+�� �G� 8�B �0 4 ��� �8 �f�K

`B�� 8 P�� � (��8 �C-� �� (�� 2�C�! , &�� , � , �

+�� 8B&B .BT� ��� ME� ��� �� (� �� �W �� �� ���B!

�A0B �� �C� ��B�� � C� ��U� � ��0�� , � ���

D��E! (8B! ,��> �� � � #� W � H�� . �BG� ��� ,���

Y�� S� ,��� (�� ���! ��X5� �"##I �T"�B� � �C-� ,� �

+��� F ,���8 �� � S� s�B�� +J � (��8 , � ,��8) ��#��

� '�-!�� � � � (c��B! s�B�� � �� O�"E ,� K , �

S� ,��� Y�b ���� -"�� \ � C� (���� (�� �"J � , �

`B�� 2�C�! +��� F � �� � 8�BJ�� �� 2U 6 2 W , �

(��8 �K 8 P�� ���P! � � �� ,� K c��B! c��B! )�� � C� � �

�� � �"��8 . +�5 �� �&��J �"5�I � C� ���f��

Y�� �I��B�8�J 2��3! ,��� ,8�� , ���X5� � ��0�� , �

�K �8 �W '��B� R M�! 'M�! \����o! �� � & � �� 40� , � �

�� � �"��8 8B&� '8��8 M4� .

5-1 . �"##I �T"�B� � �C-� S� +J � �C-� S� +J � ,��� (��8 �� � '�I��B�8�J ���E! �BG�

+�� S� D� � 8 P�� ���P! ��6� ��0�� . 8 P�� ������ �6

�4Q� 2W 8 P�� ,�Bi! \�B_� S� y���� ,���8 �W +�� ,�

(��8 � �� � '+�� (�� +��8�� �W �f�K � �� � w1 W ,��8

��BI �� �� � 8 P�� ��� ����W (��� �� �W 8B� O��P! ,�

(8B! 8�B H���� � �P0 Q . )6 YB�A �� � cF�� �8

�� (��� ��)REV (Representative Elementary Volume

��W ��U (�� ^ E"�� 8 P�� 8�B �8 . �"J � S� ���f��

� -"�� (�� +��8�� � 8B&B +�PF�� � �#� 4 �8 �� � (��

�� � �"��8 �� �5 W .(��8 SBx �� �&B! � �BG� ��� �� , �

+��8�� S� (�� 8 P�� � �� �5×5 '10×10 '15×15 �

20×20 Y��W��60 �"J � S� �� ��B�� a� '�� �"J � �-!�

8 P�� �� (��20×20 2C� �8 , �7 �8 �"�8 a�CA! ��

(��8 +�� (�� (8�8 � �� ��W \�BU �� � � .

��6� �8 +��8�� }BQJ O��P! � �P� ,)��B�� ,��I ( �45�

U�B5 �� )g F �S� 2J�8 ,�" a� 2 �0 T] ��8 4 ' �

(��8 �QJ ,��8)P10 ( '�� ���P! +��8�� yJ �� ,���

�� ,��� "��� �8 ��� �� a� �� �8 �K ��T� � ��8 4 d��

��8�I �-� 3 S� . (���� �� c��B! c� ! ��8 4 +� �� �8 �

(� K �K Y�8 � S�� �-!� , �)8���� "�� z��3�� � ��T� � (

����� �-� 3 8 P�� �� a� �� , . 2C�9 ��B�� }BQJ �� ,�

� � �� �� S� a� ,��� (�� O��P! �45� +��8����8 .

(��8 �0 T] 8�B �8 �3Q� ,��8)P20 ( ,��� ���K�5 ��� X��

�"�8 2W (��8 ���C! (��8 �"�8 �� a�CA! �� � S� �� , �

(� K ! ���#� 4 +�& � �� 8�B , � S� , 8 P�� � �

�� \� A"��K +�8. �A0B �� �T�8 �C� (�� ����� , �

(��8 \�� ���4 �3Q� ,��8)P21 (+�� . X�� �A0B ���

�� ���P! (�� �Wk 8 P�� �� a��� �8 S� �� ,��� . d��

8 P�� �� a��� ,��� �K 8���� "�� z��3�� � ��T� � ��8 4

� 3�� �- . '(��� �� )6 ���P! ���K�5 Y �� � � X��

8 P�� �� a��� ,��� (��8 �"�8 �� ,��� SBx � D�� ��8 4

S� �8 �P� �� z�P , �)�A0B � �� a�8X� ,� K , �

�P� �K ��T� �( (���� �� S �"6� �0 T] c��B! � ���P! '

(� K �K , � (� K � S �"6� �0 T] c��B! � � � ��8 4 ,

'+�� (�� (8 A"�� S� ,8��� ��B�� �� �W (�� +��8��

� �0B-F 2� F � ^BJ =���� �� �� �� S� ! �� �#� 4

�� � ��8�BJ�� �PF�� y���� . , ����K�5 � �! Y �� �� d

�#� 4 � (�� �Wk +� �� �8 '(�K +�8 �� ,� K �� "� ,

S�10×10 �� (8�8 ��E�! D� � .

Page 13: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 39

________________________________________________________________________________________________

MC' ( ���� ����1

O ( ���� ����2

P ( ���� ����3

A ( ���� ����4

I��7. S� �� �C� �&��J (��8 �C-� +J � , � (��8 �"�8 �� a�CA! �� �

I��8. S� �� �C� ��W �&��J(��8 �C-� +J � , � �

I��9. ,�" a� , ����! �8 �45� +��8�� }BQJ (���� �� S� a� �� �� ��

�A0B �� �J�� S� ����� , �10×10 ,��� (�� ^ E"��

2��3!�� '�I��B�8�J�#� 4 \�BU �� �" ��8 4 � ,�

S��& �8 '(�� +��8�� , �3 !5 +�� (�� ����� . �8

S��&3 (��8 �0 T] ��8 4 �0 T] � �3Q� ,��8

MC' (���� �' ����G� �R �� ��(8/0 ���

O (���� �' ���+. �R �� ��(8/0 ���

0 5 10 15 20

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20

0

5

10

15

20

Page 14: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

40 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

(��8 �� 2U 6 � V5� , "��� �8 (�� +��8�� �QJ ,��8

S� �"�8 �� a�CA! �� � -Q�� ��X� � (�� �#� 4 ',� �

��W \�B_� � (��8 +�� (�� 8��K�� .

(��8 SBx � D�� S �"6� �0 T] c��B! +J � �� d �

����B� S� ,DFN2D (8�8 � (�� �#� 4 (�� +��8�� , �

)� �W � � �� �� ��BJ � �#� ���BJ ��8 .�A0B 8�B �8 ,

�3AU ,�� �C��� 2�0�� D��S� cQ4 �W ,� 8 �� ,� �

(��8 �"�8 (�� , �1 �2 � D�� �� S� �PF� ,��� ��B�

+�� (�� (8 A"�� (��8 �"�8 �8 ��� �� �#� 4 . �8 �� "�

(� �� S��&4 +�� (�� ����� . S �"6� �0 T] c��B! ��8 4

(��8 �"�8 SBx � �� ��BJ � �#� V� Q! X�� (�� S� , �

(8�8 � � �� (�� +��8�� �� �" , � ��8 . ��B�� ��B�� ��

(� K � c��B! c��B! (��8 �"�8 �� }B�� , � (� �� ,3 �8

2C�10 S��& �5 �#� 4 ,��� +�� (�� (8�8 � �� �"�� ,.

�� �� ��E� '�K ���� -"�� � S� ����� 8 P�� ���P! �� d

(��8 l1QU� �� � (�� z>6 8���� ��4� `B�� 8 �� �8 �W

)G� S� � ,� �8B� .

5-2 .�-� 3 &�� �I��B�8�J ,

d `B�� �K �� (��8 cx 4! �� 2U 6 2 W , � �E� �

� �K +6 # � 8B� � �-� 3 � \�B_� ���K�5 ��� '88�I

2C� �8 ,��B_!11 +�� (�� (8�8 � ��.

����3. (��8 �0 T] � -Q�� ��X� ���P! S� � (�� +��8�� �3Q� ,��8 ����B� ,� � ,DFN2D

(��8 �0 T] �3Q� ,��8)P20( (��8 �0 T] �45� �QJ ,��8)P10(

����(�� +��8�� S�DFN2D � -Q�� �U�8 (�� +��8�� S�DFN2D � -Q�� �U�8

1 1/5 07/5 5/99

2 44/4 44/4 100

3 2/4 19/4 7/99

4 6/2 61/2 6/99

I. 34/16 31/16 8/99 9/8 83/8 2/99

MC'(��'���( ��� T�'���

^ (��'���� ����� ��( DFN2D

I��10. (��8 �"�8 SBx �� (�� =���� c��B! c� !3 (� K (���� �� �K , �

����4. �A0B �"�8 D�� ,� K , � (��8 (� �� , �1 �2S� �� d � (�� +��8�� ' ����B� ,� � ,DFN2D

D��)�&�8(

����

����

(�� +��8�� S�DFN2D

��T� � z��3����T� � z��3��

1 3/79 91/6 69/79 97/6

2 5/75 66/5 54/75 48/5

Page 15: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 41

________________________________________________________________________________________________

����5. �A0B �"�8 SBx ,� K , � (��8 (� �� ,3 S� �� d � (�� +��8�� ' ����B� ,� � ,DFN2D

c� !c��B! +�PFB �"�� )m( { �4 �"�� )s( ��T� � 8���� "�� z��3��

+��8�� S �� �b 92/0- 96/0 67/0 78/0

S�DFN2D S �� �b 908/0- 00/1 65/0 72/0

MC' (8 !� �' U� ���� ���� �(

O (V-� I�E� ����:� � I��. ��( 3� TW��� � �(

I��11. S� �&��JDFN2D

2C� �811 `B���K 2J�8 �8 �W �� � cx 4! �R� �8 �

(��8 `B�� �"C]BW , � � 2�C�! X�� , � H�� �� X�� 8B�

����)��A� (+�� (�� �E� . ���� 2�C�! �BG� ��

`B�� � �� (� �� �W ��BT� �� �!X�� , � �� (8 A"�� � ��B!

a�CA! +��� F(��8 �K SBx { ���� � z>6 �� Y��F� �

(��8 8B�� )W SBx � , �.

`B�� +6 # ���P! �� d +� �� �8 S �"6� �0 T] c� ! �

y�B! +6 # �P�! �0 T] c� ! (���� �� +6 #

Y�� +5�I ���BJ ���F � �"J� �8 � �-� 3 ��X5�) 2C�12 .(

`B�� 2W +6 # +-#� ���f�� 2W +6 # �� � X�� S�

� ����� �U�8 \�B_� 8B� . �"J � S� ,��� +-#� ���

(��5/67 +�� (�� �-� 3 �U�8 .��3� ����� � , �

`B�� +6 # �P�! �0 T] � S �"6� �0 T] c��B! �

� �E� �� M�� �W 88�I97 `B�� �� �U�8 2 W , �

,� # � �"C]BW �"6 # ,���8 (�� 2�C�!5/0 c���"

��"#� . (�� 2�C�! `B�� ���"I�X� +6 #68/3 � c���"

`B�� ���"C]BW +6 #064/0 �� ���P! c���".

S� �T"�B� � �C-� ,� � ��X� ��P �� (�� +��8�� , �

`B�� 2�C�! � �� ^BJ �"�P7� �8 �� 2 W �T�� , �

� ��8)5/67 �U�8 ( �"��� 8 P�� �W +�� �0 6 �8 ���

`B�� 2�C�! , � (��)97 �U�8 ( ,� # � �"�W5/0

+�� (�� �-� 3 c���" . �Q���� �8B� ���F�� u�5 �

� 'V�� �8 �� � �� �-�W�! �W ���� ��"� ��� �� ��B!

`B�� +��8 �T�� , �) 8��630 �U�8 (���� �8 ,

`B�� 8 P�� �6��x �� �"#� �W +�� �"5�I ���F X�� , �

2� � =����� �&��E"�� , � � �!1C� ���� q� � ���B!

8B� ��B� R � ��0�� �I��B�8�J ���K�5 �8 .��"� +��8 ,��I

����� �� }B� '(�� l�Q sB7B �� c&�� 2 W � , �

S� '2 W �3Q���� �"5�I �G� �8 � e�3U �C�� C ,� �

2��3! � L "�"�� � +�PF�� �� a�8X� � C� �6 ! �Q����

�K +��� �� "� 2 W+�� '(.

Page 16: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

42 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

MC' (V-� TW��� ��1�W' �C��+ X��� �(

^ (V-� TW��� �B12� �C��+ X��� �(

I��12. S� �&��JDFN2D

6 .�2� ���

�8 �rW� 8��B �� �BG� �G5 3 ���� W 2�� �8�W �8 2��3! , �

,���� )�� �� , � t5 ������� � '� ��� =�"#I

�T"�B� � � \�B_� 8��3 � �8 � � �G� �"5�I � '8B�

� �8 'cF�� �8 (��8 =�"#I 8�B �"��� �T"�B� � � �

�� (��� (��8 (8B! �8 8B&B , � +#�� 8��3 � 'H�� .���

��R ! �� ,8 �� �� ��X� D��E! ,��> �8 � #� W=�� , �

�� '�-��E! L��E"�� (8B! D��E! =�� (��� 8��8 ,�.

�I��� �"5�I �G� �8 � (��8 ����� , ��"�� �58 _! , �

(8B! �� �PF�� � C� �6 ! �0� ����� ,� K � 30 �� �W H��

�I��� , �BI � �� � �-"P (8B! ����� , � &�� H��

2��3! �8 8��� W �BG� �� '�� � ��E! , �D Y�b ,��>

+�� . �� (��8 �� � ���� ��R ! �� �&B! � �0 4 ��� �8

(8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J � (��8 �C-� �58 _! S� 'H��

(�� �"J � (��8 SBx (����� ,� K �I��� �"5�I �G��8

+�� . �� ���"�8 �P0 Q 8�B ��P �8 �W ��� �� �&B! �

� C� V�� � �5�x �� '+�� (8B-� ��> M� �K '��U� z�

Y�� ��K� W +��� F � (�� ���! ��X5� '+�� (8B� (�� �Wk , �

+��8�� { ���� ����� S� �>0 (�� Y �� �3Q� , �

+�� (�� �"J � .S� �� "� y�B! (�� Y �� ����� ,� �

Y�� � �#� 8B&B +�PF�� � �#� 4 �8 (�� ���! ��X5�

+� 7� +�� (8B� ME� .

+��� F �� �&B! � S� �8 (�� �6��x , � ����� � ,� � ,

�&��J Y�� ��� �8 ,8�� , ��W D� � , � �K �� '��X5�

� � ,���� 2��3! 'S �� � ��& \ P0 Q �8 ��B!

D��E! 8B�� (8 A"�� ��BE� ,�P��8 +0 6 �8 ,��> .

�X��!

� '����. � 's '�45 � ,��6�� �. '1386 .(8B! �C��C!Bgh '����� ,�P� �� ,� � S� H�� (��8 , � ,� K =�� �� ��8) ,8�B �P0 Q : `B��

�C��B"C!II \� o] ��P .(( T���8 '����� H�� a�� C d���A�W ��B� \b 4 ��B� ����! '��-W��� �"P�U.

� '����.s '�45 � ,��6�� � � '. '1388. ��-� �T"�B� � �C-� ,� � S� �8 � C��C!Bgh ,� �Y�� y�3 y�B! ������� , � t5 � ,��X5�

Mathematica\b 4 ��B� ' ����� 2�B! d���A�W ���"������! '.

( ',��8BI.s '�45 � ,��6�� � � '. '1392 .S� �� ,� � (8B! �C��C!Bgh ~ ����� ,�P� H�� (��8 , � a#�8 =�� �� ��8 �58 _! , �) �g���

� ���RD3DGM(����! '2�B! �� d���A�W ����8 \b 4 ��B� ' .

( ',��8BI.s '�45 � ,��6�� � � '. '1393 .S� ,� �2 �T"�B� � ����� ,�P� Y�� �8 � ,8�� 2��3! ��X5� UDEC � �K D�� c5� �

� ��� �� (8 A"��3DGM����� H�� a�� C d���A�W ���� \b 4 ��B� '.

Baecher, G., 1972. Site exploration: a probabilistic approach. PhD dissertation. Cambridge, MA: MIT.

Page 17: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

S��T"�B� � �C-� ,� � �� �"##I (8B! , &�� �I��B�8�J 8��K�� �BG� =�� �8 H���-��E! L��E"�� , � / 43

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Baecher, G.B., 1983. Statistical Analysis of Rock Mass Fracturing. Journal of Mathematical Geology, 15(2), 329-347. DOI 10.1007/BF01036074.

Baghbanan, A., Jing, L., 2008. Hydraulic Properties of Fractured Rock Masses with Correlated Fracture Length and Aperture. International Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences, 44(5), 704– 719. DOI:10.1016/j.ijrmms.2006.11.001.

Bang, S.H., Jeon, S., Kwon, S., 2012. Modeling the Hydraulic Characteristics of a Fractured Rock Mass with Correlated Fracture Length and Aperture: Application in the Underground Research Tunnel at Kaeri. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 44 (6), 639-652. DOI:10.5516/ 02.2011.026.

Brown, E.T., 2003. Block Caving Geomechanics, The International Caving Study Stage I 1997-2000, Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre, Brisbane, Australia.

Dershowitz, W.S., Einstein, H.H., 1988. Characterizing Rock Joint Geometry with Joint System Models. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 21(1), 21–51. DOI:10.1007/BF01019674.

Hoek, E.T., 1998. Reliability of the Hoek–Brown estimates of rock mass properties and their impact on design. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci; 35: 63–8.

Hudson, J.A., La Pointe, P.R., 1980. Printed Circuits for Studying Rock Mass Permeability, International journal of rock mechanics and mining sciences and geomechanics abstracts, Technical Note, 17(5), 297-301. DOI:10.1016/0148-9062(80)90812-8.

Hudson, J.A., Priest, S.D., 1983. Discontinuity Frequency in Rock Masses. International Journal of Rock Mechanics, Mining Sciences & Geomechanics, Abstract, 20(2), 73-89. DOI:10.1016/0148-9062(83)90329-7.

Ivanova, V., Xiaomeng, Y., Veneziano, D., Einstein, H.H., 1995. Development of Stochastic Models for Fracture Systems. Rock Mechanics, Balkema, Rotterdam, ISBN 90 5410 552 6.

Kulatilake, P.H.S.W., Chen, J., Teng, J., 1996. Discontinuity Geometry Characterization in a Tunnel Close to the Proposed Permanent Shiplock Area of the Three Gorges Dam site in China. International Journal of Rock Mechanics, Mining Science & Geomechanics Abstract, 33(3), 255-277. DOI:10.1016/0148-9062(95)00060-7.

Kulatilake, P.H.S.W., Park, J., Um, J., 2004. Estimation of Rock Mass Strength and Deformability in 3-D for a 30 m Cube at a Depth of 485 m at Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 22(3), 313–330. DOI:10.1023/B:GEGE.0000025033.21994.c0.

Kulatilake, P.H.S.W., Um, J., Wang, M., 2003. Stochastic Fracture Geometry Modeling in 3-D Including Validations for a Part of Arrowhead East Tunnel, California, USA. Engineering Geology, 70(1), 131-155. DOI:10.1016/S0013-7952(03)00087-5.

Laubscher, D.H., 2003. Cave Mining Handbook, De Beers, p. 138. Martel, S., Hestir, K., Long, J.C.S., 1991. Generation of Fracture Patterns Using Self-Similar Function

Concepts. Earth Sciences Division Annual Report, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, California, 52-56. Pine R.J., Coggan, J.S., Flynn, Z., Elmo, D., 2006. The development of a comprehensive numerical

modelling approach for pre-fractured rock masses. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering. 39. 5: 395- 419.

Pine, R.J., Coggan, J.S., Flynn, Z., Elmo, D., 2006. The Development of a New Numerical Modeling Approach for Naturally Fractured Rock Masses. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 39(5), 395- 419. DOI:10.1007/s00603-006-0083-x.

Priest, S.D., 1993. Discontinuity Analysis for Rock Engineering. Published by Chapman & Hall, London, p. 473. ISBN: 978-94-010-4656-5.

Priest, S.D., Hudson, J.A., 1976. Discontinuity Spacing in Rock. International Journal of RockMechanics, Mining Sciences & Geomechanics, Abstract 13(5), 135-148. DOI:10.1016/0148-9062(76)90818-4.

Priest, S.D., Samaniego, J.A., 1988. The Statistical Analysis of Rigid Block Stability in Jointed Rock Masses. 5thAustralia-New Zealand Conference on Geomachanics, (pp. 398-403), Barton, A.C.T.: Institution of Engineers, Australia, Sydney. ISBN: 0858254271 & 0858254085.

Reyes, O., Einstein, H. H., 1991. Failure Mechanics of Fractured Rock - A Fracture Coalescence Model. 7th International Society for Rock Mechanics, A.A. Balkema. Permission to Distribute -

Robinson, P C., 1983. Connectivity of Fracture Systems - A Percolation Theory Approach. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 16(3), 605–614. DOI:10.1088/0305-4470/16/3/020.

Page 18: 3’˙$’ !4 ! 0 012 ’ -2 44 ˇ 27 :;< )2˚ 1 ˛ 1 )8 4 -ˆ ) 1395 ...enayatemami@gmail.com a Xˇ5Bgh ˚ +A˙ ’ P ( C˝˙ 8 ’8˚ ˛ ... 4 5K 8 Palabora . 8ˆ ...

44 /���� ��- ����� ����� �� �� ��� ���� ����� � "#� ! � � ��1395 (� �� ')�� ��& '1 �2

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rogers, S.F., Kennard, D.K., Dershowitz, W.S., Vanas, A., 2007. Characterising the in situ fragmentation of a fractured rock mass using a discrete fracture network approach, Rock Mechanics: Meeting Society's Challenges and Demands - Eberhardt, Stead & Morrison (eds) Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-44401-9.

Rogers, S.F., Moffitt, K.M., Kennard, D.T., 2006. Probabilistic slope and tunnel block stability analysis using realistic fracture network models. In Proc. 41st U.S. Symposium on Rock Mechanics, Golden, CO. ARM, VUSRMS, 06-1052.

Rogers, S.F., Elmo, D., Catalan, A., 2014. Volumetric Fracture Intensity Measurement for Improved Rock Mass Characterisation and Fragmentation Assessment in Block Caving Operations. International Journal of Rock Mechanics Rock Engineering, 44(5), 704– 719.

Sari, M., 2009. The Stochastic Assessment of Strength and Deformability Characteristics for Apyroclastic Rock Mass. International Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences, 46(3), 613-628. DOI:10.1016/j.ijrmms.2008.07.007.

Tollenaar R.N., 2008. Characterization of discrete fracture networks and their influence on caveability and fragmentation. (Master of Applied Science) The University of British Colombia.

Wanga, C., Tannant, D.D., Lilly, P.A., 2003. Numerical analysis of the stability of heavily jointed Rock slopes using PFC2D. International Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences 40, 415–424.

Wu, F., Wang, S., 2002. Statistical Model for Structure of Jointed Rock Mass. Geotechnique, 52(2), 137–140. DOI: 10.1680/geot.2002.52.2.137.

Yu, X., 1992. Stochastic Modeling of Rock Fracture Geometry. M.S. Thesis, MIT, Cambridge, MA. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12176.

Xu, C., Dowd, P., 2010. A New Computer Code for Discrete Fracture Network Modeling. Computers & Geosciences, 36(3), 292–301. DOI:10.1016/j.cageo.2009.05.012.

Zadhesh, J., Jalali, S.E., Ramezanzadeh, A., 2013. Estimation of Joint Trace Length Probability Distribution Function in Igneous, Sedimentary, and Metamorphic Rocks. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, DOI 10.1007/s12517-013-0861-1.

Zhang, L., Einstein, H.H., 2000. Estimating the Intensity of Rock Discontinuities. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science, 37(5), 819-837. DOI:10.1016/S1365-1609(00)00022-8.