Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
Presented to: GMU System-Wide Modeling Workshop
By: Joseph Post, ATO NextGen & Ops Planning
Date: 10 December 2008
Federal AviationAdministrationFAA System-Wide
Modeling
Uses and Shortfalls
Federal AviationAdministration
2FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
• Uses of System-Wide Models• NextGen Overview• Modeling Shortcomings
– ATM Domain• Airport• Terminal• En Route• Oceanic• Flow Control• Airline Operations Center (AOC)
– Model Use
Overview
If we can’t model the current system, how can we model
this thing?
NextGen
Federal AviationAdministration
3FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
NAS Strategy Simulator
AwSim/AERALIB
NASPACATO
Modeling
SuiteSIMMOD
RDSIM/ADSIM
Federal AviationAdministration
4FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Uses of System-Wide Models
Performance Assessment
Requirements AnalysisCost-Benefit Analysis
Development
Federal AviationAdministration
5FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)
• Portfolio optimization
The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of aviation investments so as to maximize the overall economic return, subject to a budget constraint.
,,, 2 XEnvGovoducerrPConsumer NOCOnoiseCCSSPVW
ConsumerSurplus
ProducerSurplus Government
Costs
EnvironmentalCosts
Federal AviationAdministration
6FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)
System-wide performance assessment
Model
System
Target
Performance
-
Expectations
Demand
“The Performance
Loop”
Federal AviationAdministration
7FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
NextGen Implementation Plan
43 Mid-Term Capabilities
Air TrafficOperations
AirportDevelopment
Aircraft &Operator
Requirements
NextGen
FY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Capital ProgramsADS-B ERAMSWIM TFM-MDataComm TMANNEW WAASNAS Voice Switch LAAS
AircraftRoadmap
7 Solution SetsIncrease collaborative ATMIncrease flexibility in the terminal environmentIncrease arrivals/departures at high-density airportsInitiate trajectory-based operationsReduce weather impactsImprove safety, security, and environmental performanceTransform facilities
2 Solution Sets35 OEP airports15 metropolitan areas
Federal AviationAdministration
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TBOInitiate Trajectory Based Operations
Federal AviationAdministration
9FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
HiDensity Solution SetIncrease Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports
Federal AviationAdministration
10FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Flex TerminalIncrease Flexibility in the Terminal Area
Federal AviationAdministration
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Collaborative ATMImprove Collaborative ATM
Federal AviationAdministration
12FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
WeatherReduce Weather Impact
Federal AviationAdministration
13FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Airport Modeling Shortfalls• Simplistic airport capacity
– Single airport configuration
• Convection weather– Airport closure
• Departure release• Surface congestion
– Taxiways– Gates– De-icing
• Tail number tracking– Delay propagation
• Passenger tracking– Connections
Coupled
Federal AviationAdministration
14FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Terminal Modeling Shortfalls
• Simplistic terminal airspace– Airport coupling– Terminal capacity
• Aircraft trajectories– Route of flight– STARs– DPs
• Convection weather– Re-routing/arrival gate closure
Federal AviationAdministration
15FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
En Route Modeling Shortfalls
• Static sector capacity– Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP)
• Static sector definition• Response to sector overload
– Re-routing• Metering
– Time-based metering– Miles-In-Trail (MIT)
• Convective weather– Dynamic sector capacity– Tactical re-routes
• Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/Tailored Arrivals
Federal AviationAdministration
16FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls• Oceanic airspace!
Federal AviationAdministration
17FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls
• Ground stops/ground delays– Airport constraints (GDPs)– Airspace constraints (AFPs)
• Strategic re-routes– Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP)– Canadian Off-load
Federal AviationAdministration
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AOC Modeling Shortfalls
• Cancellations• Ground Delay Program (GDP) response• Re-routes
Federal AviationAdministration
19FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Model Use Shortfalls• Ease of Set-up• Monte Carlo replication
– Demand• Flight schedules• OD pairs• Equipment
– Aircraft performance– Routings– Capacities/airport configurations– TFM– etc.
• Visualization• Validation
Federal AviationAdministration
20FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008
Questions?