FAA System-Wide Modeling

Presented to: GMU System-Wide Modeling Workshop

By: Joseph Post, ATO NextGen & Ops Planning

Date: 10 December 2008

Federal AviationAdministrationFAA System-Wide

Modeling

Uses and Shortfalls

Federal AviationAdministration

2FAA System-Wide Modeling10 December 2008

• Uses of System-Wide Models• NextGen Overview• Modeling Shortcomings

– ATM Domain• Airport• Terminal• En Route• Oceanic• Flow Control• Airline Operations Center (AOC)

– Model Use

Overview

If we can’t model the current system, how can we model

this thing?

NextGen



NAS Strategy Simulator

AwSim/AERALIB

NASPACATO

Modeling

SuiteSIMMOD

RDSIM/ADSIM



Uses of System-Wide Models

Performance Assessment

Requirements AnalysisCost-Benefit Analysis

Development



Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)

• Portfolio optimization

The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of aviation investments so as to maximize the overall economic return, subject to a budget constraint.

,,, 2 XEnvGovoducerrPConsumer NOCOnoiseCCSSPVW

ConsumerSurplus

ProducerSurplus Government

Costs

EnvironmentalCosts



Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)

System-wide performance assessment

Model

System

Target

Performance

-

Expectations

Demand

“The Performance

Loop”



NextGen Implementation Plan

43 Mid-Term Capabilities

Air TrafficOperations

AirportDevelopment

Aircraft &Operator

Requirements

NextGen

FY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Capital ProgramsADS-B ERAMSWIM TFM-MDataComm TMANNEW WAASNAS Voice Switch LAAS

AircraftRoadmap

7 Solution SetsIncrease collaborative ATMIncrease flexibility in the terminal environmentIncrease arrivals/departures at high-density airportsInitiate trajectory-based operationsReduce weather impactsImprove safety, security, and environmental performanceTransform facilities

2 Solution Sets35 OEP airports15 metropolitan areas



TBOInitiate Trajectory Based Operations



HiDensity Solution SetIncrease Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports



Flex TerminalIncrease Flexibility in the Terminal Area



Collaborative ATMImprove Collaborative ATM



WeatherReduce Weather Impact



Airport Modeling Shortfalls• Simplistic airport capacity

– Single airport configuration

• Convection weather– Airport closure

• Departure release• Surface congestion

– Taxiways– Gates– De-icing

• Tail number tracking– Delay propagation

• Passenger tracking– Connections

Coupled



Terminal Modeling Shortfalls

• Simplistic terminal airspace– Airport coupling– Terminal capacity

• Aircraft trajectories– Route of flight– STARs– DPs

• Convection weather– Re-routing/arrival gate closure



En Route Modeling Shortfalls

• Static sector capacity– Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP)

• Static sector definition• Response to sector overload

– Re-routing• Metering

– Time-based metering– Miles-In-Trail (MIT)

• Convective weather– Dynamic sector capacity– Tactical re-routes

• Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/Tailored Arrivals



Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls• Oceanic airspace!



Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls

• Ground stops/ground delays– Airport constraints (GDPs)– Airspace constraints (AFPs)

• Strategic re-routes– Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP)– Canadian Off-load



AOC Modeling Shortfalls

• Cancellations• Ground Delay Program (GDP) response• Re-routes



Model Use Shortfalls• Ease of Set-up• Monte Carlo replication

– Demand• Flight schedules• OD pairs• Equipment

– Aircraft performance– Routings– Capacities/airport configurations– TFM– etc.

• Visualization• Validation



Questions?

FAA System-Wide Modeling

Documents

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