I

Uniwersytet Warszawski

Instytut Stosunków Międzynarodowych

Lecture Developing Countries in International Relations

Course ID: 2104-ERASMUS-DCIR

M.A. Aleksandra Jaskólska

Summer Term 2016

China by the year 2050 - Development, Achievements and Challenges

Cao Meng

caomeng0923@qq.com

Liu Zhong ming

zhongming_liu@sina.cn

Course of Studies: B.A. International Relations ( Xiamen University China, 6th semester)

Xiang Hu

841276733@qq.com

Course of Studies: M.A. World History (Xiamen University China, 4th semester)

Lara Groll

lara.groll@web.de

Course of Studies: B.A. Politik und Gesellschaft (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Germany, 6th semester)

Warszawa, 02.03.16

https://usosweb.wdinp.uw.edu.pl/kontroler.php?_action=katalog2/jednostki/pokazJednostke&kod=21040000https://3c-bap.web.de/mail/client/mail/mailto;jsessionid=CA147A50BE24D0BEF61CE0DE9F8DDB8A-n2.bap08b?to=841276733%40qq.com

II

Statutory Declaration

I declare that I have authored this thesis independently, that I have not used

other than the declared sources/ resources, and that I have explicitly marked all

material which has been quoted either literally or by content from the used

sources.

III

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 1

2. Analysis......................................................................................................... 2

2.1 Economy and Demography ............................................................... 2

2.2 Human Rights .................................................................................... 5

2.3 Relationship towards its Neighbourhood ............................................ 7

3. Conclusion and Future Development ....................................................... 11

4. References .................................................................................................. 13

4.1 Primary Sources .............................................................................. 13

4.2 Secondary Sources.......................................................................... 15

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1. Introduction

'The only role we can play in international affairs is that of a large developing

nation'1 - this statement citing the Vice Chairman of the China Foreign Affairs

Committee Nan Zhenzhong illustrates one of the main elements regarding

China's concept of 'Peaceful Development' which was introduced in 2003.

Founded upon Deng Xiaoping's economic reform in 1978 which lifted more than

500 million people out of poverty and turning the Republic into the second

largest economy of the world, the Chinese vision aims at economic

development by taking advantage of global peace and at the same time

maintaining and contributing to the aforementioned by its own development.2

In order to restore the former greatness of the nation, Chinese government has

achieved a vast success which is why China sometimes is considered a 're-

emerging' rather than an 'emerging economy'. However, there also still are

major challenges which have yet to be overcome in the near and far future

which leads to raising the question about China's state of development by the

year 2050: Which role in international affairs will China be taking and to what

extent will it have reached its ambitious goals and which of the contemporary or

maybe new conflicts will it be struggling with?

The following analysis intends to answer these questions by setting the main

focus upon Chinese development as far as economy and demography, Human

Rights and the relationship towards its neighbourhood is concerned as these

might be the most striking and essential aspects next to a vast range of

remaining elements which will not be taken into consideration at this point. After

providing an overview of the current state of development regarding each of

these aspects it aims at identifying current and future possible challenges and

implemented Chinese strategies for a resolution of these as well as addressing

recommendations made by international institutions in order to support China in

its process of development. Finally, taking into account the presented elements

1 Isaac Stone Fish: 'Is China Still A Developing Country?', Foreign Policy, Washington 25th

September 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016). 2 Esther Pan: 'The Promise and Pitfalls of China‟s „Peaceful Rise‟', Council on Foreign

Relations, New York/Washington 14th April 2006, http://www.cfr.org/china/promise-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise/p10446 (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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an attempt will be made to determine the possible position of the country within

its international environment and therein to its state of development by the year

2050. Thus, the following analysis does not seek to foretell the whole future of

the Chinese nation by the year 2050 as it might be, but much more it is intended

to illustrate the major issues which will probably influence its further

development and to point out the strategies for coping with these in order to

achieve a successful development until 2050 and beyond.

Within the analysis, it is important to take into account both the Chinese as well

as external views upon the subject in question in order to provide a balanced

set of arguments; therefore, the research is mainly based upon literature

published by both Chinese and international institutions of research next to

publications made by news agencies providing information on recent events

and developments.

2. Analysis

2.1 Economy and Demography

The People's Republic of China often also is referred to as 'Zhongguo' which is

the Mandarin expression for 'Middle Kingdom' or 'Central Country' which mirrors

its rich linguistic, cultural and political heritage as well as its geographical

isolation and also is applicable to the aforementioned concept of an 're-

emerging economy'.3 The growing importance of China in international

economy only recently resulted in the decision of the International Monetary

Fund of approving the Chinese Renminbi as the fifth main global currency.4

With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 13.176 US Dollar per capita in 2014

which is less than half of the Slovenian or Greek GDP, the growth rate of 7,3%

of the same year will probably be replaced by 7% in 2015, 6,9% in 2016 and

3 see Henry Kissinger: 'On China', New York 2011, p.3.

4 see Keith Bradsher: 'China's Renminbi Is Approved by I.M.F. as a Main World Currency', New

York 30th November 2015, The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/business/international/china-renminbi-reserve-currency.html?_r=1 (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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6,2% in 2017 which indicates a shift to slower growth.5 A change such as this

one bears the risk of turning the former extraordinarily massive growth abruptly

into a more tiring economy. This however, contrasts with the continually rising

Gross National Income (GNI) recording 7.400 US Dollar per capita which puts

China at an income level of a country with an upper middle income.6

Moreover, there must be mentioned diverging much more optimistic predictions

such as made by '(...) Goldman Sachs [in 2012 which] projects that China's

GDP should match America's by 2027, and then steadily pull ahead.'7

Additionally, one could take into account that the Chinese republic will also

enhance its intellectual capital as currently, an increasing number of Chinese

students are frequenting the best universities worldwide being located in the

United States and regularly bring their skills back to China.8 In 2014, China was

awarded rank 90 regarding the Human Development Index (HDI) as a highly

developed country with a value of 0,727 exceeding the global average of

0,711.9

There has already been achieved great improvement as far as social inequality

regarding income and access to basic services is concerned such as education,

especially by implementing a tax reform as well as by restructuring the social

security net previously known as the 'hukou system' which denied internal

migrants the same rights as permanent residents.10 Currently, only about 6% of

5 see OECD Data: 'People's Republic of China', Paris 2015,

https://data.oecd.org/china-people-s-republic-of.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016), OECD: 'China. Economic Forecast summary (November 2015)', Paris 2015, http://www.oecd.org/economy/china-economic-forecast-summary.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016), Statista: 'China: growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2010 to 2020', New York 2016, http://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/ ( accessed on 1st March 2016). 6 see The World Bank: 'Data China', Washington 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/country/china

(accessed on 1st March 2016). 7 Charles A. Kupchan: 'The World in 2050: When the 5 Largest Economies Are the BRICs and

Us', February 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/the-world-in-2050-when-the-5-largest-economies-are-the-brics-and-us/253160/ excerpt from 'No One's World', Oxford 2012 (accessed on 1st March 2016). 8 see ibid.

9 see United Nations Development Programme: 'Human Development Index and its

components', New York 2014, http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/HDI (accessed on 1st March 2016). 10

see OECD: 'China in Focus: Lessons and Challenges', Paris 2012, http://www.oecd.org/china/50011051.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.18ff.

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the rural population still live under the national poverty line.11

However, there still were about 98,99 million people living below this very line of

2.300 Renminbi per year in 2012 which is the second largest number of people

living in poverty behind India.12 The remaining high level of inequality which is

most visible by taking into account the discrepancy between rural and urban

areas is determined by the Chinese GINI Index representing unequal

distributions: Indeed declining from 49,1 in 2008 to 46,9 in 2014, it yet exceeds

the warning level of 40 set by the United Nations.13

Currently, the Chinese nation counts 1385,6 million people with a recent growth

rate of 0,6% recording a continuous decrease related to the declining fertility

rate of 1,67 children per woman for the year 2014 and an average life

expectancy at birth of 75 years.14 Initially, this trend will result in a considerable

decline of the working age population which will only be slowed down slightly by

the recent relaxation of the one-child policy.15 By 2050 - according to Minsheng

Bank Hong Qi, Chairman of the Pension Finance 50 Forum - China will reach

the level of being a super-aging society with more than 30% of people being

older than 60 years.16 This development towards an ageing population would

inevitably lead to imbalances within the social security system and to an even

higher level of social inequality if there were not any measures taken towards

11 see OECD: 'China in Focus: Lessons and Challenges', Paris 2012, http://www.oecd.org/china/50011051.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.124. 12

see The World Bank: 'China Overview', Washington 18th September 2015, http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview (accessed on 1st March 2016). 13

see Statista: 'Gini index: inequality of income distribution in China from 2004 to 2014', New York 2015, http://www.statista.com/statistics/250400/inequality-of-income-distribution-in-china-based-on-the-gini-index/ (accessed on 1st March 2016), Isaac Stone Fish: 'Is China Still A Developing Country?', Foreign Policy, Washington 25th September 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016). 14

see OECD Data: 'Demography. Fertility Rates', Paris 2015, https://data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016), see The World Bank: 'Life Expectancy at Birth, total (years)', Washington 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN (accessed on 1st March 2016). OECD Data: 'People's Republic of China', Paris 2015, https://data.oecd.org/china-people-s-republic-of.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016). 15

see OECD: 'Economic Surveys China', Paris March 2015, http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/China-2015-overview.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.4. 16

see Xiaohui Wang: 'Chinese officials said the aging population by 2050 will be over 400

million，pension missing 6 trillion' (translated from Chinese, original title:

'官员称中国2050年老龄人口超4亿，养老金缺6万亿。'), 12th December 2012,

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/micro-reading/china/2015-12-12/content_14396012.html (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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adapting the governmental social system to social change.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

(OECD) and the World Bank these especially include economic and ecological

reforms for sustainable green growth, changes addressing increasing

urbanisation and agricultural as well as measures of adjustment for the social

system reforms in order to reduce social inequality such as to improve access

to public services; finally, recommendations are made for investments in

education and innovation to complement a progressive development.17 The

prevailing inequality is closely connected to China's approach and notion of the

implementation and protection of Human Rights which will be analysed in the

following.

2.2 Human Rights

With the Bangkok Declaration released in March 1993 as a statement

representing '(...) the Asian region's stance on human rights (...) '18, China and

the participating countries introduced the intention of setting their own standards

of human rights opposing the universal perception on this very subject. The

Human Rights Watch Report of 2015 clearly shows that China has fallen short

of meeting the international standards ever since. The Republic remains an

authoritarian state which curbs fundamental rights such as the freedom of

expression, association and assembly as it still shows hostility to criticism of any

17

see OECD Global Relations Secretariat: 'Active with the People's Republic of China', Paris March 2015, http://www.oecd.org/china/Active-with-China.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.4, OECD: 'Structural reforms can help China settle into a “new normal” era of slower, but more sustainable and inclusive growth', Paris 2015, http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/structural-reforms-can-help-china-settle-into-a-new-normal-era-of-slower-but-more-sustainable-and-inclusive-growth.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016), The World Bank, Development Research Center of the State Council, the People's Republic of China: 'China 2030. Building a Modern, Harmonious and Creative Society', Washington 2013, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/03/27/000350881_20130327163105/Rendered/PDF/762990PUB0china0Box374372B00PUBLIC0.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p. XXI. 18

Joanne Bauer: 'The Bangkok Declaration Three years After: Reflections on the State of the Asia-West Dialogue on Human Rights', Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, New York 4th March 1996, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/archive/dialogue/1_04/articles/518.html (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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kind; restrictions on media and the internet such as strict conditions for the use

of 'WeChat' - the Chinese version of 'WhatsApp' - , carrying out the announced

anti-corruption campaign in a way which undermines the rule of law , NGOs

which in fact are run by government or the imprisonment of human rights

defenders are only a few examples mirroring the attitude of the government

towards this issue.19 Limits of freedom of religion by the removal of Christian

crosses in public, the control over religious personnel appointments and the

ethnic, cultural and religious suppression of the inhabitants of Tibet or the

Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR) as well as the absence of

sufficient rights regarding sexual orientation and gender identity and rights for

citizens with disabilities are further aspects lacking a legal basis as well as the

actual implementation.20 Moreover considering international affairs, the

Republic claims to approve of a political solution of conflicts such as the civil

war in Syria or the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan, but has already

passed its 4th veto in the United Nations Security Council preventing the Syrian

case being taken to the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, Amnesty

International reported lower numbers of cases of death penalty indeed,

however, China still holds a leading position as far as executions are

concerned.21

Still with the change of leadership in 2013, there has also been achieved

improvement, for instance by abolishing the aforementioned 'hukou system'

discriminating against internal migrants and arbitrary detention and a greater

access of disabled people to the essential university entrance exams.22

Additionally, there was made a statement by a government official affirming the

protection of citizens through Chinese law regardless of their sexual orientation

and the first two cases of discrimination based upon sexual orientation and

19

see Human Rights Watch: 'World Report 2015: China. Evens of 2014', New York 2015, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/china-and-tibet (accessed on 1st March 2016). 20

see ibid. 21

see Amnesty International USA: 'China Human Rights', New York 2016, http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/china (accessed on 1st March 2016). 22

see Human Rights Watch: 'World Report 2015: China. Evens of 2014', New York 2015, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/china-and-tibet (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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concerning the offer of 'conversion therapies' for homosexuals have been taken

to court.23 Currently, there is carried out a programme of partnership involving

Chinese law companies, universities, civil society institutions and the Danish

Institute for Human Rights in order to contribute to an increased realisation of

civil and social rights.24 As reported by the United Nations, China has ratified

eight of the 18 international human rights treaties and has officially declared six

of these.25 According to Mo Jihong, research fellow at the Institute of Law of the

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences however, an essential issue remains as

the conventions are not implemented by adopting but rather by transforming

them as it requires the use of domestic law and it is impossible to quote directly

from international documents at court.26

On the whole, major efforts towards an enhanced recognition and

implementation of human rights based upon international standards will be

required in order to secure and contribute to further progress of Chinese

development. In contrast, a strategic alignment established upon the

consideration of international affairs can be identified as far as the Chinese

relationship towards its neighbouring countries and the Asian region as a whole

is concerned which will complete the analysis of challenges and prospects for

the future of China.

2.3 Relationship towards its Neighbourhood

The most prevailing aspect of Chinese policy towards its neighbouring states

will be the territorial disputes in the South China Sea which can be traced back

to the year of 1894. Chinese deployment of missiles and the construction of

artificial islands and infrastructure are the main elements by which the state

23

see Human Rights Watch: 'World Report 2015: China. Evens of 2014', New York 2015, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/china-and-tibet (accessed on 1st March 2016). 24

see The Danish Institute For Human Rights: 'China', Copenhagen 2015, http://www.humanrights.dk/place/china (accessed on 1st March 2016). 25

see United Nations Office of the High Commissioner Human Rights: 'Status of Ratification Interactive Dashbord', Geneva 2014, http://indicators.ohchr.org/ (accessed on 1st March 2016). 26

see China Society For Human Rights Studies: 'International Human Rights Conventions in China', Interview with Research Fellow Mo Jihong, Institute of Law of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 10th December 2007, http://www.chinahumanrights.org/CSHRS/Magazine/Text/t20080604_349282.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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attempts to obtain its territorial claims of the different islands in question.27 It

was reported only recently that China deployed new surface-to-air missiles on

an island being part of an archipelago which is also claimed by Vietnam and

Taiwan.28 China itself considers its own increasing military assertiveness, also

regarding its rising military expenses, only as self-defence as reaction to other

powers.29 In order to achieve further progress by pursuing its objectives in a

peaceful co-operative way, it will be crucial to settle or at least to contain the

conflict regarding the territory in the South China Sea. Elements which are

essential for a resolution could be resource sharing of gas, petroleum and

fishing yield within the disputed areas, military-to-military communication, the

enforcement of co-operation within a multilateral framework, for example by a

closer partnership of China with ASEAN, and international arbitration of the

cases concerning territorial claims.30

Apart from the territorial disputes, China has made considerable progress

towards enhanced and peaceful co-operation with its neighbours. According to

President Xi Jinping, there has been made a shift of its focus from 'great power

politics' and the strategic partnership with the United States towards enforced

diplomacy in order to '(...) promote friendship and partnership with our

neighbours."31 Next to its strategic aim of creating an economic 'Silk Road' and

'Belt' throughout the region, it has also made proposals for smaller economic

27

see Council on Foreign Relations: 'China's Maritime Disputes', New York/Washington 2016, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345#!/p31345 (accessed on 1st March 2016). 28

see Mark Landler and Michael Forsythe: 'Chinese Missiles in South China Sea Underscore a Growing Conflict Risk', The New York Times, New York 17th February 2016 (accessed on 1st March 2016). 29

see François Godement: 'Introduction' and 'China's Neighbourhood policy: a CICIR roundtable', European Council on Foreign Relations: 'China's Neighbourhood Policy', p.1-4, London et al. February 2014, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_Analysis_China_s_Neighbourhood_Policy_February2014.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.4. 30

see Council on Foreign Relations: 'China's Maritime Disputes', New York/Washington 2016, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345#!/p31345 (accessed on 1st March 2016). 31

Michael D. Swaine: 'Xi Jinping‟s Address to the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs', Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington 2nd March 2015, http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/02/xi-jinping-s-address-to-central-conference-on-work-relating-to-foreign-affairs (accessed on 1st March 2016), see Shannon Tiezzi: 'How China Seeks to Shape Its Neighborhood', The Diplomat, Tokyo 10th April 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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corridors such as a link between China and Pakistan and China, Bangladesh,

India and Myanmar.32

Moreover, despite recent tensions and provocations there can also be

discovered some positive steps within the Sino-Indian relationship as there

have been taken up new talks about the issue of the disputed border between

the two states as well as further political contacts.33 After the change in office in

2013, first visits by the new leadership were made to neighbouring states and

the government established new separate strategic partnerships and intensified

bilateral relations, for example with Malaysia and Indonesia; besides,

negotiations concerning a Sino-Japanese-Korean Free Trade Agreement have

been taken up and China provided its surrounding countries with financial

assistance after the financial crisis in 2008 by creating such an FTA with the

members of ASEAN.34

Most strikingly however, is China's ambition to create and participate in a

regional as well as international multilateral network of strategic co-operation

and partnership. As regards great financial institutions such as the Asia

Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank BRICS

(NDB BRICS) and the Chinese Development Bank (CDB) as well as economic

organisations such as the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) or the

proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countering

the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it becomes visible how much effort the

Chinese government has been putting in order to fuel the development of the

region as well as its own progress.35 As a result of the treaty of amity and co-

32 see Shannon Tiezzi: 'How China Seeks to Shape Its Neighborhood', The Diplomat, Tokyo 10th April 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016). 33

see François Godement: 'Introduction' and 'China's Neighbourhood policy: a CICIR roundtable', European Council on Foreign Relations: 'China's Neighbourhood Policy', p.1-4, London et al. February 2014, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_Analysis_China_s_Neighbourhood_Policy_February2014.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p.2. 34

see Ruan Zongze: 'What Kind of Neighborhood Will China Build?', China Institute of International Studies, Beijing 28th May 2014, http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-05/28/content_6942279.htm (accessed on 1st March 2016). 35

see OECD Observer: 'China joins OECD Development Centre, strengthens OED co-operation', Paris 2015, http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/4963/China_joins_OECD_Development_Centre,_strengthens_OECD_co-operation.html (accessed on 1st March 2016),

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operation between China and ASEAN, the country replaced the United States in

being the most important trade partner of both South Korea and Japan.36

With respect to these measures that have been taken and are yet to be

extended regarding regional as well as international co-operation, the great

interconnection and interdependence has become a crucial element of China's

concept of 'Peaceful Development' as has been stated by a research fellow for

the Institute for International and Strategic Studies at the Party School of

Central Committee of the Communist Party of China needing '(...) equal efforts

from both China and other countries'37 for its realisation. Even taking into

account the fact that there still is a great gap of security co-operation throughout

the Asian region, China's ambitions are visible by the fact that it intends to

establish a new security co-operation architecture in Asia through the

Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA);

however, to be able to use this framework in order to deal with the absence of

security co-operation, it will be essential to include further countries which are of

vital importance such as Japan, Australia as well as numerous members of

ASEAN.38 By creating such a multilateral partnership, China would contribute

notably to its aim of its own further development.

Regarding the aspects having been discussed, initially it may be stated that the

ambition towards creating a multinational framework and co-operation may be

considered the core of the Chinese vision of 'Peaceful Development' which is

also emphasised frequently by the Chinese government in official statements in

see Isaac Stone Fish: 'Is China Still A Developing Country?', Foreign Policy, Washington 25th September 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016), François Godement: 'Introduction' and 'China's Neighbourhood policy: a CICIR roundtable', European Council on Foreign Relations: 'China's Neighbourhood Policy', p.1-4, London et al. February 2014, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_Analysis_China_s_Neighbourhood_Policy_February2014.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016). 36

see Esther Pan: 'The Promise and Pitfalls of China‟s „Peaceful Rise‟', Council on Foreign Relations, New York/Washington 14th April 2006, http://www.cfr.org/china/promise-pitfalls-chinas-peaceful-rise/p10446 (accessed on 1st March 2016). 37

Chen Jimin: 'Understanding China's Peaceful Development', China United States Exchange Foundation, China US Focus, Hong Kong 17th February 2014, http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/understanding-chinas-peaceful-development/ (accessed on 1st March 2016). 38

see Shannon Tiezzi: 'At CICA, Xi Calls for New Regional Security Architecture', The Diplomat, Tokyo 22nd May 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/at-cica-xi-calls-for-new-regional-security-architecture/ (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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order to pacify the international community [' (...) what the Chinese people long

for is a world of peace and development.'39] For the case that China meets this

claim in the future, it can be assumed that by 2050, it will have been able to

create a peaceful, co-operating and highly interconnected network of

partnership with its neighbourhood as well as throughout the whole world.

3. Conclusion and Future Development

With respect to the preceding analysis of essential aspects of Chinese

development which will be central in a China by the year 2050, the republic has

the '(...) potential to be a modern, harmonious and creative high-income

society.'40 The commitments which currently are being made in order to achieve

this already contribute to approaching further progress and positive

development. However, if the Chinese government intends to reach this goal in

a sustainable way, it will have to take measures of adjustment in order to

improve its current acting '(...) like a superpower without bearing the

responsibilities of one.'41 This implies that it will be of the utmost importance to

advance regarding its own economic and social structure, the implementation of

human rights as well as further improvement of relations towards its

neighbouring countries and at the same time to refrain from further actions

which may be perceived threatening or provocative. Furthermore, in order to

reach its ambitious goals by the proclaimed 'Peaceful Development' until 2050

and beyond, it will be necessary to apply these approaches in international

affairs as well, for example to address issues such as global warmth or

39

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The People's Republic of China: 'Work Together to Promote Openness, Inclusiveness and Peaceful Development. Speech by H.E. Xi Jinping President of the People's Republic of China At Dinner Hosted by The Lord Mayor of the City of London', 22.10.2015, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1308151.shtml (accessed on 1st March 2016). 40

The World Bank, Development Research Center of the State Council, the People's Republic of China: 'China 2030. Building a Modern, Harmonious and Creative Society', Washington 2013, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/03/27/000350881_20130327163105/Rendered/PDF/762990PUB0china0Box374372B00PUBLIC0.pdf (accessed on 1st March 2016), p. XXI. 41

Isaac Stone Fish: 'Is China Still A Developing Country?', Foreign Policy, Washington 25th September 2014, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/how-china-seeks-to-shape-its-neighborhood/ (accessed on 1st March 2016).

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international security.

On the whole, China is an example of a major success in running through a

development from a country of low to middle income and - by pursuing its own

successful strategies and complementing these by adding further measures as

has been analysed - the vision of China by the year 2050 may be a rather

positive one. Therefore, another fairly interesting aspect for the future might be

the possibility of China serving as a role model for Africa considering economic

transformation and reduction of poverty; already now, there seems to take place

an intensification of co-operation and dialogue on this topic between the two

continents. If China contributed - next to its own development - to the positive

development of another or even several other countries, it would probably be

fair to say that the People's Republic of China would have reached its goal of

'Peaceful Development' in a most sustainable and indeed peaceful manner.

- 13 -

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