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4„ M U LT I D Y S T RY B U C J A ”C Z Y L I J A K T W Ó J B I Z N E S BĘD Z I E W Y G LĄD AŁ Z A 5 L AT
Tomasz Woźniak, Future Mind
W S Z Y S C Y M A M Y I N T E R N E T W K I E S Z E N I A C HU S TA L M Y FA K T Y
J E S T G O C A
100%
Global Interet traffic share (desktop versus mobile)
StatCounter | December 2014
75%
50%
25%
Dec-08 May-10 Oct-11 Mar-13 Aug-14
Desktop Mobile
P R Z Y S ZŁOŚĆ M A W I E L E E K R A N Ó W
0B
200B
400B
600B
800B
1000B
1200B
1400B
1600B
1800B
2000B
2200B
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Personal Computers Smartphones Tablets Smart TV’s Wearables
Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Companu Filings, BI Intelligence Estimates
Global conected devices shipments
D L A C Z E G O T O J E S T N I E U C H R O N N E ?
F. O . M . O
C H E C K I N G H A B I T
C H E C K I N G H A B I T
P U S HN O T I F I C AT I O N
T O SĄ L U D Z I E A L E G D Z I E J E S T B I Z N E S ?
P O S T P CP O S T V O I C EP O S T S M S
P O S T P CP O S T P C
30%G
row
th (Y
oY)
PC shipment quarterly year-over-year growth (globally)
24%
18%
12%
6%
0%
(6%)
(12%)
(18%)
(24%)
3Q09
Gartner, IDC, BI Intelligence Estimates | January 2015
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14
P O S T V O I C E
Global Interet traffic shaare (desktop versus mobile)
600M
450M
350M
150M
Oct-10 Feb-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
LINE WhatsApp WeChat Viber Snapchat
Company Statements, BI Inteligence Estimates
Monthly Active Users (millions) for top apps
P O S T S M S
0M
100M
200M
300M
400M
500M
600M
700M
Oct-10 Jul-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14
WhatsApp MAUs
WhatsApp, January 2015
M E D I A
S M A R T F O N N I E J E S T S E C O N D - S C R E E N E M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
TV Online Radio Print Other Mobile
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
eMarketer, April 2014
U.S. Consumer Media Consumption Share
V I D E O Z J A D A N I E T Y L K O T R A N S F E R
0
5
10
15
20
25
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
File Sharing Audio Streaming Web/Data/VoIP Video
Cisco, February 2015
Extr
abyt
es p
er m
ont
h
R E K L A M A
C H Y B A WA R T O ?
0B
10B
20B
30B
40B
50B
60B
70B
80B
90B
2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Non-Mobile Mobile
BI Intelligence Estimates, Interactive Advertising Bureau
Forecasted digital advertising revenue (U.S.)
K T OŚ J UŻ N A T Y M Z A R A B I A
0 M
500 M
1 000 M
1 500 M
2 000 M
2 500 M
3 000 M
3 500 M
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14
Advertising (Non-Mobile) Mobile Advertising Payments and Fees
Facebook Company Filings
Facebook Revenue by Segment (Global)
T Y L K O M O B I L N I E
P O C O T W O R Z YĆ N A D E S K T O P ?
0M
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
30M
35M
40M
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013
Smartphone Desktop
Average daily time spent per user (smartphone vs desktop)
F I N A N S E
B A N K T Y L K O W K O M Ó R C E ?
0M
10M
20M
30M
40M
50M
60M
70M
80M
90M
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014
Non-Mobile Online Mobile
Wells Fargo, bank of America, Chase company filings
Mobile versus online customers (Wells Fargo, Bank of America & Chase)
S M A R T F O N J A K PAY PA S S ?
$0M
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
$350M
$400M
$450M
$500M
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014Starbucks statements and filings, BI Intelligence
Starbucks mobile payment volume
N I E K O N I E C Z N I E P R Z E L E W
$0M
$175M
$350M
$525M
$700M
Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
$700M
$468M
$314M
$194M
$141M$105M
$81M$59M$43M$31M$23M
PayPal, BI Intelligence
Venmo payment volume
B A N K D O L A M U S A ?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
26%29%29%
41%
50%Square Paypal Apple Google Amazon
Accenture, The Digital Disruption in Banking, 2014
If these companies offered banking services, how likely would you be to bank with them?
H A N D E L
E - C O M M E R C E J E S T W I E L O K A N AŁO W Y
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Amazon eBay Wal-Mart Target Ticketmaster Best Buy Home Depot Etsy Sears
47%43%41%41%54%57%
44%43%34%
7%10%9%9%
7%9%
14%23%28%
46%47%50%50%39%34%42%34%38%
Desktop Only Desktop and mobile Mobile Only
comScore, July 2014
Monthly U.S. visitors across retail websites
0
750
1500
2250
3000
2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018
LICZBA TABLETÓW LICZBA SMARTFONÓW
WARTOŚĆ M-COMMERCE SMARTFONÓW WARTOŚĆ M-COMMERCE TABLETÓW
TABLET CZY SMARTFON?
eMarketer, 2014
C O T E R A Z ?
I N T E R N E T O F T H I N G SN I E U C H R O N N OŚĆ
D O P R A C Y ; )
T. W O Z N I A K @ F U T U R E M I N D . C O M
M O B I L E : + 4 8 . 6 0 9 . 6 2 6 . 9 5 5
P L . L I N K E D I N . C O M / I N / T O M A S Z W O Z N I A K