Information on home prices and the situation in the residential
20
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d Economic Institute Jacek Łaszek, Hanna Augustyniak, 10 December 2012 Krzysztof Olszewski, Krzysztof Gajewski, Marta Widłak Bureau of Macroprudential Policy Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market 1 in Poland 2 in 2012 Q3 Summary The analysis of the situation in the Polish real estate market in 2012 Q3 leads to the following conclusions: the analysed period was marked by a further slight fall in housing prices in the largest markets (both offer and transaction prices in the primary and secondary market); amidst a diminishing availability of mortgage loans, this allowed the demand and sale of housing in the primary market to be maintained at the current level; for the first time since 2009, there was a decline in the number of new housing units put onto the market by real estate developers and in the number of building permits; it is the consequence of real estate developers' decisions (driven by concerns about the entry into force of the Real Estate Development Act) to shift this year's construction to the first half of the year; nevertheless, the stock of unsold new housing is estimated to have at least exceeded twice the level considered as balanced; the model analysis indicates a drop in cumulated profit margins on newly commenced real estate development projects; the real estate development sector begins to be affected by falling home prices; the situation of the majority of real estate development companies seems stable due to the diversification of their activities and a relatively low level of debt burden; however, the sector's current situation and the general economic downturn are likely to generate problems, such as lower profitability, or even losses and bankruptcies of the weakest market players; quarter-on-quarter growth in housing loan receivables from households hit its lowest level over the past seven years; the value of newly signed mortgage contracts hit its record low over the past three years; since the beginning of 2012, banks have not granted mortgages in foreign currencies; the amount of loan receivables from households in FX adjusted terms is gradually decreasing, which may be a sign that loans denominated in foreign currencies are being either repaid or converted into zloty; real estate loans for enterprises have been on the rise, whereas the loan quality has been deteriorating, which is due to the situation in the market; a slight drop has been observed in lending to real estate developers for housing construction projects. 1 Due to the data update frequency, information on the market of commercial real estate shall be published on a 6-month 2 The information was prepared by the Economic Institute for the needs of the authorities of NBP and it presents the authors’ opinions. This document should not be read as an advisory material, nor should it be the basis for any investment decisions.
Transcript of Information on home prices and the situation in the residential
N a t i o n a l B a n k o f P o l a n d
E c o n o m i c I n s t i t u t e
Jacek Łaszek, Hanna Augustyniak, 10 December 2012
Krzysztof Olszewski, Krzysztof Gajewski,
Marta Widłak
Bureau of Macroprudential Policy
Information on home prices and the situation in the residential and
commercial real estate market1 in Poland2 in 2012 Q3 Summary
The analysis of the situation in the Polish real estate market in 2012 Q3 leads to the following
conclusions:
the analysed period was marked by a further slight fall in housing prices in the largest markets
(both offer and transaction prices in the primary and secondary market); amidst a diminishing
availability of mortgage loans, this allowed the demand and sale of housing in the primary
market to be maintained at the current level;
for the first time since 2009, there was a decline in the number of new housing units put onto
the market by real estate developers and in the number of building permits; it is the
consequence of real estate developers' decisions (driven by concerns about the entry into force
of the Real Estate Development Act) to shift this year's construction to the first half of the
year; nevertheless, the stock of unsold new housing is estimated to have at least exceeded
twice the level considered as balanced;
the model analysis indicates a drop in cumulated profit margins on newly commenced real
estate development projects; the real estate development sector begins to be affected by falling
home prices;
the situation of the majority of real estate development companies seems stable due to the
diversification of their activities and a relatively low level of debt burden; however, the
sector's current situation and the general economic downturn are likely to generate problems,
such as lower profitability, or even losses and bankruptcies of the weakest market players;
quarter-on-quarter growth in housing loan receivables from households hit its lowest level
over the past seven years; the value of newly signed mortgage contracts hit its record low over
the past three years; since the beginning of 2012, banks have not granted mortgages in foreign
currencies; the amount of loan receivables from households in FX adjusted terms is gradually
decreasing, which may be a sign that loans denominated in foreign currencies are being either
repaid or converted into zloty;
real estate loans for enterprises have been on the rise, whereas the loan quality has been
deteriorating, which is due to the situation in the market; a slight drop has been observed in
lending to real estate developers for housing construction projects.
1 Due to the data update frequency, information on the market of commercial real estate shall be published on a 6-month
2 The information was prepared by the Economic Institute for the needs of the authorities of NBP and it presents the
authors’ opinions. This document should not be read as an advisory material, nor should it be the basis for any investment
decisions.
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The study provides a synthetic description of key developments affecting the housing market in
Poland’s largest cities in 2012 Q3 and contains an appendix with charts and figures presenting: 1/
home prices (Figures 1-12), 2/ housing availability, loan availability, availability of loan-financed
housing, loan limits and loan disbursements under the government-subsidized housing scheme Family
on their own (Rodzina na Swoim - RnS) (Figures 13-18) 3/loan disbursements and real interest rates
(Figures 19-28), 4/ operating profitability of real estate development projects, costs of construction and
assembly output and economic situation of real estate developers in Poland (Figures 29-54), 5/
residential construction and housing market in Poland (Figures 55-64).
The description of the charts and figures is in English, the translation of the content of the
majority of graphs and figures can be found in the 2012 Q1 report.
This study was based on the data from the Real Estate Market Database BaRN3, the database of
offer prices of housing provided by PONT Info Nieruchomości, databases SARFIN and AMRON of
the Polish Banks’ Association (ZBP), collective data of the Credit Information Bureau (Biuro
Informacji Kredytowej), data presented by Sekocenbud, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the
National Bank of Poland (NBP). Offer prices of housing put on sale and information concerning
profitability of real estate development projects were based on the data furnished by the Real Estate
Advisory Service (REAS) and information supplied by the GUS (F01 and F02).
------------------------
The situation of the housing sector in 2012 Q3 was affected primarily by two factors, namely
the condition and behaviour of real estate development companies in Poland's largest cities and the
banks' tightened lending policy with respect to both real estate developers and house buyers. As a
result of their previously observed production activity and price policy, the former have led to a
significant oversupply in the housing market, whereas the latter, given the credit risk due to the current
situation, have curbed lending to households, thus further aggravating real estate developers'
difficulties in selling newly completed housing and housing construction contracts. Another important
problem was the anxiety triggered by the observed economic slowdown combined with prospective
buyers' decision to wait for a further drop in housing prices as a result of real estate developers'
growing financial problems. This was particularly the case of purchases for investment purposes. The
current situation is the consequence of the real estate development sector's low transparency and
difficulties in assessing its actual situation, which has so far been better than commonly believed.
The analysis of the indices of real estate development companies listed on the Warsaw Stock
Exchange provides an outlook on the sector's situation from the point of view of the stock exchange in
relation to the related construction sector and other sectors of the economy. Since mid-2009, the stock
exchange indices of real estate development companies grew faster than those of the rest of the
economy. Even though the WIG20 index has been on the rise since the beginning of 2012, the WIG
index of real estate development companies has remained stagnant; on the other hand, in the first half
of 2012, the WIG index of construction companies dropped to stabilise in Q3 (see Figure 29).
Problems in the construction sector are also reflected in the growing number of bankruptcies in the
industry, which rose by 37% in the period between January and September 2012, as compared to the
3 The BaRN database of the National Bank of Poland is created thanks to voluntary provision of data by the real estate
agents and real estate developers with the participation of regional branches of the NBP; the study analyses both home sale
offers and transactions as well as home rentals within city limits of sixteen voivodship cities, where the majority of real
estate deals are closed. In 2012 Q3, district branches of the NBP collected in 16 capitals of voivodships a total of 43 007
records on home sales (including 36 874 offers and 6 133 transactions), and a total of 19 904 records on home rentals
(including 19 206 offers and 698 transactions).
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corresponding period of the previous year4 (see Figure 30). It should be noted that bankruptcies hit
infrastructure construction companies hardest, and, in particular, road and motorway construction
companies5. The situation of companies involved in the real estate market operations, especially real
estate agencies6, was also adversely impacted due to the general economic slowdown, whereas the
situation of real estate management companies, especially those managing housing associations7 has
was hardly affected. It can be assumed that the market assessment of the situation of housing
developers relies on information about problems faced by individual companies, especially the most
severely indebted ones and willing to take risks, rather than on an objective examination of the
situation in the residential real estate development sector.
The behaviour of real estate developers in the housing market is determined by the overall
economic situation, problems faced by the construction industry and recently also by the government's
housing policy. On the basis of their past experience, residential developers may expect housing
demand to increase in 2012 Q4, due to the expiration of the government-subsidized housing scheme
Family on their own (RnS) at the end of the year. The experience with subsidy programs in Poland
allows to expect that the closing of such a scheme will boost clients’ interest, who hasten their decision
to participate in the scheme and focus less on rational decisions. Legislators are working on the launch
of a new scheme - Housing for Youth (Mieszkanie dla młodych, MDM) in the second half of 2013; the
new programme is to benefit families with children most. Under these conditions, real estate
developers in major markets could anticipate an increased housing demand, but at the expense of price
adjustment that would need to be introduced in order to meet the requirements of the program.
Apart from a still acceptable price level, developers' concerns about the operation of escrow
accounts8 were the main reason for embarking upon new development projects in 2012. This is
confirmed by a significant slowdown in the launch and marketing of new projects, following the entry
into force of the Act on 29 April 2012. The number of unsold contracts in the market decreased
slightly, although it remained at the sector’s record high. We believe that in order to evade the
requirements of the above-mentioned act, real estate developers, especially the largest companies,
deliberately increased supply despite the already high risk of market price decline. The RnS scheme
coming to an end was yet another factor that contributed to this decision. So far, developers have
accomplished their plans, which means that they have a portfolio of orders for several years to come,
housing stock is being gradually sold and housing prices, as yet, have not dropped dramatically.
The slowdown in real estate development activity in 2012 Q3 was reflected in the historically
low number of permits issued for housing construction (the lowest in the corresponding quarter since
2006 - see Figure 58). The same holds for the decreasing number of housing units under construction
(see Figure 57). The number of completed housing units in Poland in 2012 Q3 was similar to the
number recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year, which means that the upward trend
observed in the first two quarters of 2012 was halted (see Figure 56). Yet, we must take into account
that this is only a consequence of decisions taken in the previous years and does not reflect the current
situation in the sector or in the entire economy. Also the rate of housing construction in progress,
established on the basis of the above data, confirms the reversal of the trend, which means that a
4 614 bankruptcies have been recorded in all the sectors, a 18% increase as compared to the corresponding period of 2011.
5 PKD 42, in particular road construction, PKD 4211.
6 PKD 681 and rental of commercial real estate, PKD 682.
7 PKD 683.
8 Obligatory escrow accounts were introduced by the provisions of the Act on the Protection of Home Buyers’ Rights.
Investment activity of real estate developers in 2011 Q4 - 2012 Q2 involved the creation of a portfolio of legally
advantageous contracts for the coming years.
4 / 20
gradual reduction in the number of real estate development projects has been observed since 2011 Q4.
In our opinion, we may expect a further decline of these indicators.
The profitability analysis of the housing construction sector shows that aggregate profit
margins on recently commenced development projects in 6 cities9 during the analysed period did not
exceed an average of PLN 1 000 per square meter and approximately 10-15% of the total project
expenses. In the case of projects carried out in the major cities, rates of return approached 15% per
year. This meant that the projects could still be profitably financed with loans (the cost of credit was
approximately 8%), yet, not leaving too much room for further price declines – PLN 500-600 at most -
in case normal financial leverage is used10
. Given the increasing business risk, it means verging on the
border of housing construction profitability and may hinder new activities. Nevertheless, this limit may
prove quite flexible if demand growth is accompanied by falling prices of production factors.
The falling number of new contracts put on the market and, consequently, a smaller number of
housing units under construction translate into excessive housing stock to a small extent only. As
suggested by REAS data, in 2012 Q3, approx. 55 000 real estate development contracts, including 13
000 completed housing units, were put on the market in the six largest cities (see Figure 60). This still
amounts to more than a double of the total annual home sales11
in those cities. So far, the situation
forced real estate developers to cut transaction prices of housing in all local markets (see Figure 1).
Offer prices of newly completed contracts (real estate developers’ expectations) and offer prices of
housing in the primary market decreased further (see Figure 11 and Figure 12). A long-term downward
trend in transaction and offer prices still persists in major markets. Price declines in the primary market
also translated into lower prices in the secondary market (see Figure 2) due to their strong
correlation12
.
Despite the adaptation process between the primary and the secondary markets (due to the non-
arbitrage condition), a certain price variation in both of those markets is a normal phenomenon. In
most cities, transaction prices in the primary market are higher than those in the secondary market, but
the opposite is true for the Warsaw market (see Figure 5). This is due to the structural differences
between these two types of markets (ownership structure, stock quality and its location, clients’
preferences, etc.) and different behaviour of owners and real estate developers. Home owners who put
their housing on the secondary market are more patient than real estate developers, because housing is
regarded by them as a consumer good13
, satisfying residential needs, ensuring housing security and
additionally constituting a relatively safe and long-term investment. Moreover, proceeds on the sale of
housing does not constitute the main source of income for its owner, which is true in the case of real
estate developers. The owner can also rent out housing to generate additional income. It should be
noted that the purchase of some of the best housings could be financed through FX loans. Given the
weakening of the zloty and the decline in real estate prices, the value of a housing loan may exceed the
mortgage value. Owners of such housing will only decide to sell their dwellings when forced to do so.
9 Estimates of the aggregate real estate developer's profit margin are based on the construction investment project as
defined in Article 3 of the „Report on the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2010”.
10 In a favourable market situation, the ratio of the real estate developer's equity to total project costs amounts to approx.
20%, whereas at present, banks require an equity of at least 30%.
11 The analysis of standard business plans of real estate development companies shows that the average number of housing
construction contracts put in the market should not exceed half of the annual sale figures. See Article 2 of "Report on the
situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2011” and the analysis outlined in "Information
on housing prices and the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2012 Q2".
12 Detailed analysis of the prices in the primary and secondary market ratio was outlined in "Report on the situation in the
residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2011”, pp. 15-16.
13 See Article 2 in "Report on the situation in the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in 2011”.
5 / 20
As a result of the above factors offer prices in the secondary market exceed by far transaction prices,
particularly in major cities (see Figure 6).
The comparison of housing available in the primary market with housing demand indicates a
shortage of smaller dwelling, namely those with an usable area of up to 50 square meters and, at the
same time, a surplus of larger dwellings (see Figure 63 and Figure 64). As a result, smaller housing
units are higher priced per square meter. On the other hand, in the case of larger apartments, which are
more difficult to sell, potential buyers expect discounts. The greater demand for smaller housing is due
not only to prospective buyers' limited funds, but also to lower investment risk involved in the
purchase of smaller housing, which is generally easier to rent out or sell. The supply and demand
match is, however, conditional on the duration of the investment cycle, which is usually 4-5 years long.
It should be noted that in the case of offered construction contracts since the beginning of 2012 the
mismatch between supply of housing usable area and demand for it has been decreasing. This indicates
that, in the times of economic crisis, real estate developers would adapt their products to the buyers’
needs, as their decisions were made several years before. It should also be taken into account that
economic recovery will boost demand for larger apartments.
At present, the market is slowly coming close to the equilibrium level, that is the situation when
there are 30,000 housing construction contracts in the six major cities of Poland, a number not
exceeding the annual sales figure. Home sales in the primary market in Poland's six largest cities, after
the 2008-2009 slowdown, returned to a stable long-term level of about 8,000 per quarter (see Figure
60). When speaking of the reversal of the previous trend and restoration of market equilibrating
mechanisms, it should be noted that the exit from a high imbalance carries an increased risk for future
cycles. Thus, from the point of view of the economy's macro-stability, it is important to ensure that
corporate investment policy accounts for the market's demand potential and does not lead to
devastating competition among real estate developers.
Despite a reduction in housing prices, 2012 Q3 did not see an increase in home sales. As
indicated by the results of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of the NBP, this is most probably
due to the tightening of the mortgage lending criteria. In 2012 Q3, banks increased both mortgage loan
margins and equity requirements. 2012 Q4 is expected to bring further tightening of banks’ lending
policy together with increased demand for housing loans.
The value of average affordable loan has been on a constant decline since the end of 2010. The
decline in the first half of 2012 is essentially due to banks' decision to withdraw from FX loans with
lower interest rates14
, which have practically not been granted since the beginning of 2012. The lower
loan availability in the analysed period is the consequence of rising interest rates following an increase
in bank margins, which, in turn, are due to higher risk assessment (see Figure 25 and Figure 26).
Lower loan availability has a negative impact on the housing sector, as it curbs short-term demand.
Under these conditions, the sole factor compensating for lower loan availability are falling home prices
in real terms, a trend observed since the beginning of 2011 (see Figure 7 and Figure 8). Consequently,
since 2007, availability of loan-financed housing has remained rather stable, or has even increased
slightly (see Figure 16). This leads to demand stabilization, which is subject to slight fluctuations
together with the discussed above housing policy changes (for instance, changes to the RNS scheme),
the impact of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and changes in banks’ lending policy.
Another factor affecting the market, in addition to loan and housing availability, is the above
discussed banks' prudential policy and other related prudential requirements affecting bank lending.
The quarterly increase in households' receivables from mortgage loans in the analysed period fell to
14 Withdrawal from foreign currency lending should be assessed as a positive phenomenon in the context of the country's
systemic risk.
6 / 20
the lowest level over the past seven years. The value of newly signed contracts hit its record low over
the past three years (see Figure 19 –Figure 24). In addition to the shortage of new FX housing loans,
increasing quarterly declines in household receivables resulting from these loans have been observed.
This can be attributed to FX loan repayment and/ or their conversion into zloty-denominated loans as a
result of the banking procedures involving doubtful loans and debt recovery, as indicated by the
analysts of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority 15
. We continue to observe a slight decline in the
quality of housing loans contracted by households - the share of impaired loans is on the rise (see
Figure 54). This is not, however, the result of the current economic conditions, but the natural
consequence of the ageing of the loan portfolio16
.
Banks’ return on PLN loans to households has remained stable since 2010 Q3 (see Figure 28).
However, the currently stable situation in the banking sector does not mean a decline in banks' credit
risk, which may increase following a weakening of the country's economic growth. According to the
analysis of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority17
, the value and the share of household impaired
loans whose repayment is in arrears by more than 30 days are on a steady rise. The structure of
mortgage loan portfolio in terms of currency LTV ratio (loan-to-value ratio), the DTI ratio (debt-to-
income ratio) and the long crediting periods continues to be unfavourable.
The value of real estate loans to enterprises18
remains low as compared to mortgage loans to
households; yet, it has been rising and loan quality has been deteriorating (see Figure 53 and Figure
54). The share of impaired loans granted to residential developers amounted to approximately 25% in
the analysed quarter. However, despite their historically high level, they do not pose a threat to the
banking system stability, as the share of these loans in banks' total assets was lower than 4%. Since
2010 Q4, the level of real estate developers' debt resulting from loans incurred for housing projects has
remained stable, while the level of corporate debt from loans contracted for the purchase of office
space and other real estate has followed a slight upward trend. This might be indicative of investors’
increased interest in the commercial real estate market, which may be due to uncertain situation in
other sectors of the economy.
15 "Report on banks’ situation in 2011” Office of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, 2012.
16 Rise in the residential real estate indicator to portfolio ageing ratio is discussed in the Financial Stability Report of the
NBP.
17 "Report on banks situation in 2011” Polish Financial Supervision Authority, 2012.
18 Among loans granted to different sectors of the economy, the share of the construction sector is 13%. High risk exposure
of the construction sector accounted for 22.5% of the total high-risk exposure in June 2012, among which 17% relates to
engineering construction. The servicing of real estate constituted the next largest share (16.5%) of high-risk expositions.
While the largest number of loans contracted by households are those below PLN 30 million (80% of debt), loans of the
most indebted companies amount to approx. PLN 100 million. In 2012 Q3, 50% of real estate development companies'
receivables were concentrated in three large banks. These receivables constitute in general no more that 15% of the banks'
assets, and in the case of the above three banks it is even less than 7%.
7 / 20
Appendix
1. Transaction, hedonic19
and offer prices, primary market and secondary market
Figure 1 Transaction prices per square meter of housing –
primary market
Figure 2 Transaction prices per square meter of housing –
secondary market
Source: NBP. Source: NBP.
Figure 3 Weighted average price per square meter of
housing, offers and transactions - primary market
Figure 4 Weighted average price per square meter of
housing, offers and transactions - secondary market
Note to Figures 3-9: The price weighted with the share of housing in the market stock, the average price for Warsaw; Prices
collected from developers and intermediaries and included in the BaRN database; description of the database in the 2011
annual report.
Source: NBP. Source: NBP.
19 The hedonic price of housing reflects the "pure" price, that is the price that results from other factors than the quality of
housing. The analysis always pertains to the price of a standardized apartment constructed on the basis of the econometric
model. It adjusts the average price stemming from the sample taking into account change in the quality of housing from a
given sample in each quarter. It is different from the average or the median price growth, which would react strongly to any
change in the sample's composition, for instance a larger number of small apartments with a higher price per square meter.
For more information, see M. Widłak's (2012) article entitled "Metody wyznaczania hedonicznych indeksów cen jako
sposób kontroli zmian jakości dóbr” in Wiadomości Statystyczne no. 9.
2000
3000
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2
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12
zł /
m k
w.
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
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9000
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kw
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1
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2
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kw
. 20
12
zł /
m k
w.
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
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3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
III k
w. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
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III k
w. 2
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IV k
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I kw
. 200
8
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III k
w. 2
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w. 2
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. 201
0
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III k
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III k
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zł /
m k
w.
10 miast oferta 7 miast oferta Warszawa oferta
10 miast trans. 7 miast trans. Warszawa trans.
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3000
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9000
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11000
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III k
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1
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III k
w. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III k
w. 2
012
zł /
m k
w.
10 miast oferta 7 miast oferta Warszawa oferta
10 miast trans. 7 miast trans. Warszawa trans.
8 / 20
Figure 5 Ratio of the average weighted transaction price
per square meter of residential housing, - primary market
to secondary market
Figure 6 Ratio of average weighted price per square meter of
residential housing, transaction price – secondary market
Source: NBP. Source: NBP.
Figure 7 Weighted average price per square meter of
housing and CPI-deflated price (2006 Q3 =100) – primary
market, transactions
Figure 8 Weighted average price per square meter of
housing and CPI-deflated price (2006 Q3 =100) – secondary
market, transactions
Source: NBP. Source: NBP.
Figure 9 Average weighted price per square meter of
housing and the hedonic price - secondary market,
transactions
Figure 10 Housing transaction price per square meter in the
secondary market, adjusted by the hedonic index, in 6 cities
Note: 7 cities: Warsaw, Cracow, Poznań, Wrocław, Łódź,
Gdańsk, Gdynia;
10 cities: Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Kielce, Katowice, Lublin,
Olsztyn, Opole, Rzeszów, Szczecin, Zielona Góra;
Source: NBP.
Source: NBP.
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III
kw. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III
kw. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
10 miast 7 miast Warszawa
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III
kw. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III
kw. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
10 miast 7 miast Warszawa
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III
kw. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III
kw. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
10 miast RP trans. 10 miast RP trans. defl. CPI
7 miast RP trans. 7 miast RP trans. defl. CPI.
Warszawa RP trans. Warszawa RP trans. defl. CPI
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III
kw. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III
kw. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
10 miast RW transakcja 10 miast defl. CPI
7 miast RW transakcja 7 miast BaRN defl. CPI.
Warszawa RW transakcja Warszawa defl. CPI
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
zł/m
kw
.
Warszawa 7 miast 10 miast
Warszawa hed. 7 miast hed. 10 miast hed.
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I k
w.
200
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
zł /
m k
w.
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Wrocław Warszawa
9 / 20
Figure 11 Average offer prices per square meter, new
housing contracts - primary market
Figure 12 Average offer prices per square meter of housing -
primary market
Note: prices refer only to new contracts put on the market
for the first time.
Source: REAS.
Note: prices are collected from all available sources.
Source: PONT Info Nieruchomości.
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000I
kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
zł /
m k
w.
Warszawa KrakówTrójmiasto PoznańWrocław (bez Sky Tower) Łódź
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
I kw
. 2
004
II k
w.
200
4II
I k
w.
200
4IV
kw
. 20
04I
kw.
200
5II
kw
. 2
005
III
kw
. 20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
006
II k
w.
200
6II
I k
w.
200
6IV
kw
. 20
06I
kw.
200
7II
kw
. 2
007
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
008
II k
w.
200
8II
I k
w.
200
8IV
kw
. 20
08I
kw.
200
9II
kw
. 2
009
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
010
II k
w.
201
0II
I k
w.
201
0IV
kw
. 20
10I
kw.
201
1II
kw
. 2
011
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
012
II k
w.
201
2II
I k
w.
201
2
zł /
m k
w.
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
10 / 20
2. Housing availability, loan availability, availability of loan-financed housing
Figure 13 Housing availability in terms of a square
meter of housing for an average wage in the enterprise
sector
Figure 14 Costs of PLN housing loans for consumer as
deflated with CPI or wage growth
Housing availability – a measure of the potential ability to purchase housing space; it expresses the number of square meters
of housing at an average offer price in a particular market (PONT Info), that can be purchased for an average wage in the
enterprise sector in a particular city (GUS);
Source: NBP, GUS, PONT Info Nieruchomości. Source: NBP, GUS, PONT Info Nieruchomości.
Figure 15 Available mortgage loans in PLN (expressed
as multiplication of an average monthly wage in a
particular market)
Figure 16 Availability of loan-financed housing per square
meter of housing (in the case of PLN loan)
Available housing loan – a measure, specifying multiplication of the monthly wage in the enterprise sector in a particular
market, taking into account bank's lending requirements and loan parameters (interest rate, amortization period, minimum
wage as the minimum income after payment of loan instalments);
Availability of loan-financed housing – a measure, specifying how many square meters of housing may be purchased at an
average offer price in a particular market (PONT Info), with a mortgage loan obtained basing on an average monthly wage in
the enterprises sector in a particular market (GUS), in view of bank’s lending requirements and loan parameters (interest rate,
depreciation period, social minimum understood as the minimum income after payment of loan instalments). The pace of
changes of the index and differences between particular markets provide important information.
Source: NBP, GUS, PONT Info Nieruchomości. Source: NBP, GUS, PONT Info Nieruchomości.
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
I kw
.200
4II
kw
.200
4II
I kw
.200
4IV
kw
.200
4I
kw.2
005
II k
w.2
005
III
kw.2
005
IV k
w.2
005
I kw
.200
6II
kw
.200
6II
I k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
006
I kw
.200
7II
kw
.200
7II
I kw
.200
7IV
kw
.200
7I
kw.2
008
II k
w.2
008
III
kw.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9II
kw
.200
9II
I kw
.200
9IV
kw
.200
9I
kw.2
010
II k
w.2
010
III
kw.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1II
kw
.201
1II
I k
w.2
011
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.201
2II
kw
.201
2II
I kw
.201
2m k
w /
prz
ecię
tne
wyn
agro
dzen
ie
Warszawa Kraków Gdańsk
Wrocław Poznań Łódź
-8,0%-7,0%-6,0%-5,0%-4,0%-3,0%-2,0%-1,0%0,0%1,0%2,0%3,0%4,0%5,0%6,0%7,0%8,0%
I kw
.200
5II
kw
.200
5II
I kw
.200
5IV
kw
.200
5I
kw.2
006
II k
w.2
006
III
kw.2
006
IV k
w.2
006
I kw
.200
7II
kw
.200
7II
I kw
.200
7IV
kw
.200
7I
kw.2
008
II k
w.2
008
III
kw.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9II
kw
.200
9II
I kw
.200
9IV
kw
.200
9I
kw.2
010
II k
w.2
010
III
kw.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1II
kw
.201
1II
I kw
.201
1IV
kw
.201
1I
kw.2
012
II k
w.2
012
III
kw.2
012
nom.st.proc.kred.mieszk.PLNreal.st.proc.kred.mieszk.PLN def. CPIreal.st.proc.kred.mieszk.PLN przy kred.RNS def.CPIreal.st.proc.kred.mieszk.PLN dla kred.RNS def.dyn.wynagr.(3M śr.)real.st.proc.kred.mieszk.PLN def.dyn.wynagr.(3M śr.)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
I kw
.20
04
II k
w.2
00
4II
I k
w.2
00
4IV
kw
.20
04
I kw
.20
05
II k
w.2
00
5II
I k
w.2
00
5IV
kw
.20
05
I kw
.20
06
II k
w.2
00
6II
I k
w.2
00
6IV
kw
.20
06
I kw
.20
07
II k
w.2
00
7II
I k
w.2
00
7IV
kw
.20
07
I kw
.20
08
II k
w.2
00
8II
I k
w.2
00
8IV
kw
.20
08
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9II
I k
w.2
00
9IV
kw
.20
09
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0II
I k
w.2
01
0IV
kw
.20
10
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1II
I k
w.2
01
1IV
kw
.20
11
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2II
I k
w.2
01
2
licz
ba
wynag
rod
zeń p
rzec
iętn
ych
Warszawa Kraków GdańskWrocław Poznań Łódź
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
I kw
.20
04
II k
w.2
00
4II
I k
w.2
00
4IV
kw
.20
04
I kw
.20
05
II k
w.2
00
5II
I k
w.2
00
5IV
kw
.20
05
I kw
.20
06
II k
w.2
00
6II
I k
w.2
00
6IV
kw
.20
06
I kw
.20
07
II k
w.2
00
7II
I k
w.2
00
7IV
kw
.20
07
I kw
.20
08
II k
w.2
00
8II
I k
w.2
00
8IV
kw
.20
08
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9II
I k
w.2
00
9IV
kw
.20
09
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0II
I k
w.2
01
0IV
kw
.20
10
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1II
I k
w.2
01
1IV
kw
.20
11
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2II
I k
w.2
01
2
m k
w.
Warszawa Kraków Gdańsk
Wrocław Poznań Łódź
11 / 20
Figure 17 The gap between the limit under the RSN
scheme in relation to the median transaction price in 6
cities - primary market
Figure 18 The number of loan disbursements under the RSN
scheme in a given period
Note: The gap is calculated as the difference between
the maximum (limit) of the RNS scheme and the median
transaction price in the primary market in relation the
median transaction price. A positive difference means
that the scheme finances housing with prices higher than
the median, whereas a negative difference means the
opposite situation.
Source: NBP, BGK.
Source: BGK.
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III k
w. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III k
w. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III k
w. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III k
w. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III k
w. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III k
w. 2
012
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 I-III kw.
2012
liczb
a kr
edyt
ów
16 miast pozostała Polska
12 / 20
3. Disbursement of housing loans, interest rates
Figure 19 Quarter-on-quarter increases in housing loan
receivables from households in FX adjusted terms (in PLN
billion)
Figure 20 Currency structure of quarter-on-quarter
increases in housing loan receivables from households in
FX adjusted terms (in PLN billion)
Note: The increase in liabilities means the actual change
in the amount of household debt, as it takes into account
the actual disbursement of housing loans and their
repayment.
Source: NBP.
Source: NBP.
Figure 21 Geographical breakdown of new housing loans
in Poland
Figure 22 New housing loans in Poland’s six largest
cities
Note: BIK data do not cover the total of housing loans
Source: NBP on the basis of BIK data. Source: NBP on the basis of BIK data.
Figure 23 Structure of housing loan receivables from
households (in %)
Figure 24 New housing loans in terms of values and
figures, quarter-on-quarter changes (aggregate data)
Source: NBP. Note: data provides information on the concluded loan
agreements and not the actual loan disbursements.
Source: ZBP.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
mld
zł
IV
III
II
I
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
I 20
04II
200
4II
I 20
04IV
200
4I
2005
II 2
005
III
2005
IV 2
005
I 20
06II
200
6II
I 20
06IV
200
6I
2007
II 2
007
III
2007
IV 2
007
I 20
08II
200
8II
I 20
08IV
200
8I
2009
II 2
009
III
2009
IV 2
009
I 20
10II
201
0II
I 20
10IV
201
0I
2011
II 2
011
III
2011
IV 2
011
I 20
12II
201
2II
I 20
12
zmia
ny k
war
taln
e m
ld z
ł
kredyty walutowe po korekcie kursowej-zmiana kw.
kredyty złotowe-zmiana kw.
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
mld
zł
6 miast 10 miast pozostała Polska
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
mld
zł
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I kw
.200
3
III k
w.2
003
I kw
.200
4
III k
w.2
004
I kw
.200
5
III k
w.2
005
I kw
.200
6
III k
w.2
006
I kw
.200
7
III k
w.2
007
I kw
.200
8
III k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9
III k
w.2
009
I kw
.201
0
III k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1
III k
w.2
011
I kw
.201
2
III k
w.2
012
walutowe
złotowe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
I kw
. 200
2
I kw
. 200
3
I kw
. 200
4
I kw
. 200
5
I kw
. 200
6
I kw
. 200
7
I kw
. 200
8
I kw
. 200
9
I kw
. 201
0
I kw
. 201
1
I kw
201
2
iloś
ć w
tys
.
war
tość
w m
ld z
ł
wartość PLN wartość walutowe
ilość PLN ilość walutowe
13 / 20
Figure 25 Interest rates on mortgage loans to households
in Poland
Figure 26 Bank margins (to WIBOR, LIBOR,
EURIBOR 3M) on new mortgage loans
Source: NBP. Note: Bank margin is the difference between mortgage
loan rate (NBP) and the LIBOR3MCHF rate, the
LIBOR3MEUR rate or the WIBOR3M rate;
Source: NBP
Figure 27 Quality of the mortgage loan portfolio in
Poland’s six cities in 2012 Q3
Figure 28 Estimated banks’ return on FX loans granted
and repaid in Poland
Note: Quality is defined as a percentage share of non-
performing mortgage loans (i.e. in arrears for 91-180
days) in the total of mortgage loans in a particular period
for a particular city and the average level for the six
cities; average weighted with the city’s share in loan
increase;
Source: NBP based on BIK.
Note: Income and costs related to mortgage loan
portfolio. Estimated ROE (Return on Equity) is
calculated as the adjusted interest margin on mortgage
loans with respect to the minimum required equity. The
minimum equity requirement is assessed on the basis on
the LTV estimate derived from the AMRON data and
capital requirement for mortgage loans as set by the
Polish Financial Supervisory Authority (KNF). The
adjusted interest margin is the result of all income being
added and all costs being deducted. The effective cost of
financing was computed based on the WIBOR and
LIBOR rates by adding estimative costs of this
operation.
Source: NBP, AMRON.
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
9,0%
I kw
.20
05
II k
w.2
00
5II
I k
w.2
00
5IV
kw
.20
05
I kw
.20
06
II k
w.2
00
6II
I k
w.2
00
6IV
kw
.20
06
I kw
.20
07
II k
w.2
00
7II
I k
w.2
00
7IV
kw
.20
07
I kw
.20
08
II k
w.2
00
8II
I k
w.2
00
8IV
kw
.20
08
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9II
I k
w.2
00
9IV
kw
.20
09
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0II
I k
w.2
01
0IV
kw
.20
10
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1II
I k
w.2
01
1IV
kw
.20
11
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2II
I k
w.2
01
2
PLN nowe CHF nowe EUR nowe
PLN stany CHF stany
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
5,0%
IV k
w.2
003
I kw
.20
04
II k
w.2
00
4II
I k
w.2
00
4IV
kw
.20
04
I kw
.20
05
II k
w.2
00
5II
I k
w.2
00
5IV
kw
.20
05
I kw
.20
06
II k
w.2
00
6II
I k
w.2
00
6IV
kw
.20
06
I kw
.20
07
II k
w.2
00
7II
I k
w.2
00
7IV
kw
.20
07
I kw
.20
08
II k
w.2
00
8II
I k
w.2
00
8IV
kw
.20
08
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9II
I k
w.2
00
9IV
kw
.20
09
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0II
I k
w.2
01
0IV
kw
.20
10
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1II
I k
w.2
01
1IV
kw
.20
11
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2II
I k
w.2
01
2
%PLN-WIBOR3M %CHF-LIBORCHF3M%EUR-EURIBOR3M %PLN-st.dep.GD nowe%PLN-st.dep.GD stany
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
I kw
. 2
00
5II
kw
. 2
00
5II
I k
w.
20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6II
kw
. 2
00
6II
I k
w.
20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7II
kw
. 2
00
7II
I k
w.
20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8II
kw
. 2
00
8II
I k
w.
20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9II
kw
. 2
00
9II
I k
w.
20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0II
kw
. 2
01
0II
I k
w.
20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1II
kw
. 2
01
1II
I k
w.
20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2II
kw
. 2
01
2
śred
nia
dla
6 m
iast
mia
sta
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
średnia 6 miast
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
IV k
w 2
008
I kw
200
9
II k
w 2
009
III
kw 2
009
IV k
w 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
Obciążenie kredytów odpisami
Efektywny koszt finansowania kredytów
Efektywne oprocentowanie kredytów
Skorygowana marża odsetkowa na kredytach
ROE (P oś)
14 / 20
4. Operating rate of return on housing and real estate development projects, costs of
construction and assembly production and economic situation of real estate developers in
Poland
Figure 29 Growth in stock exchange indices: WIG20 and for
real estate developers and construction companies
Figure 30 Number of bankruptcies in the sectors in three
quarters
Note: harmonized data 2007 Q2 = 100.
Developers' WIG has been recorded since 2007 Q2;
Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Source: Coface Poland.
Figure 31 Share of direct construction costs per square
meter of the residential building’s usable area (type 1121
building20
) in the transaction price – primary market
Figure 32 Rate of return on equity in investment projects
in 6 cities and the actual rate of return of real estate
developers (DFD)
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud. Note: The rate of return on equity in new investment
projects assuming the currently applicable interest rates,
banks' requirements and production costs; calculated on
the basis of the diagram included in Annex 3 of the
"Report on the situation of the Polish market of residential
and commercial real estate in 2011”.
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, GUS.
20 Building (type 1121) monitored by the NBP since the second half of 2004 as an average residential multi-family five-
storey building with an underground parking space and retail premises on the ground-floor; traditional construction (over-
ground part made from ceramic bricks); for the sake of convenience, it has been assumed that construction costs of 1 square
meter of parking space and retail space are close to the costs of housing sold in shell condition; real price of 1 square meter
of housing, based on construction costs, depends on the share of outer space [building’s common area], different for various
buildings; when calculating the price of 1 square meter of usable housing area to be paid by consumer, we have assumed
20% share of outer space [building’s common area] with respect to housing area and by this figure we have adjusted
upward the price of 1 square meter of housing. Data adapted to the new developer's model of the construction process
described further in Article 3 of the "Report on the situation of the Polish market of residential and commercial real estate
in 2011".
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
I kw
.200
4II
kw
.200
4II
I kw
.200
4IV
kw
.200
4I
kw.2
005
II k
w.2
005
III
kw.2
005
IV k
w.2
005
I kw
.200
6II
kw
.200
6II
I kw
.200
6IV
kw
.200
6I
kw.2
007
II k
w.2
007
III
kw.2
007
IV k
w.2
007
I kw
.200
8II
kw
.200
8II
I kw
.200
8IV
kw
.200
8I
kw.2
009
II k
w.2
009
III
kw.2
009
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.201
0II
kw
.201
0II
I kw
.201
0IV
kw
.201
0I
kw.2
011
II k
w.2
011
III
kw.2
011
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
. 201
2II
kw
. 201
2II
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
007
= 10
0
WIG20 WIG-DEW. WIG-BUD.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
I-IX 2008 I-IX 2009 I-IX 2010 I-IX 2011 I-IX 2012
Pozostałe branże
Działalność związana z obsługą rynku nieruchomości
Budownictwo
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
008
III k
w.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9
II k
w.2
009
III k
w.2
009
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.201
0
II k
w.2
010
III k
w.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1
II k
w.2
011
III k
w.2
011
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.201
2
II k
w.2
012
III k
w.2
012
Warszawa Kraków GdańskWrocław Poznań Łódź
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
008
III k
w.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9
II k
w.2
009
III k
w.2
009
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.201
0
II k
w.2
010
III k
w.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1
II k
w.2
011
III k
w.2
011
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.201
2
II k
w.2
012
III k
w.2
012
Warszawa Kraków Gdańsk Wrocław
Poznań Łódź DFD
15 / 20
Figure 33 Warsaw - structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building22/
) to be paid by
consumer
Figure 34 Cracow- structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building22
) to be paid by
consumer
Note: data in Figures 34-39 presented in quarter-on-quarter
terms since 2008 Q2; previously, data published in year-on-
year terms;
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS.
Figure 35 Gdańsk - structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building 22/
) to be paid by
consumer
Figure 36 Poznań - structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building 22/
) to be paid by
consumer
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS.
Figure 37 Wrocław - structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building 22/
) to be paid by
consumer
Figure 38 Łódź - structure of price per square meter of
housing usable area (type 1121 building 22/
) to be paid by
consumer
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS. Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud, REAS.
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł /
m k
w.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł
/ m
kw
.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł /
m k
w.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł
/ m
kw
.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł /
m k
w.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
IV k
w.2
004
IV k
w.2
005
IV k
w.2
006
IV k
w.2
007
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.20
08
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.20
09
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.20
09
IV k
w.2
009
I kw
.20
10
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.20
10
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.20
11
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.20
11
IV k
w.2
011
I kw
.20
12
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.20
12
zł /
m k
w.
robocizna materiały sprzęt
koszty pośrednie zysk budowlany koszty ogólne
projekt ziemia VAT
skum.zysk dew.brut
16 / 20
Figure 39 Anticipated changes in the price of construction
and assembly production and growth in the costs of
construction of the residential building’s usable area (type
1121 building22/
)
Figure 40 Cost of construction of one square meter of the
residential building’s usable area (type 1121 building22/
)
Source: NBP based on data published by the GUS (business
conditions survey), Sekocenbud.
Source: NBP based on Sekocenbud.
Figure 41 Share of sale of 5 and 10 largest real estate
development companies in total sale (calculations based on
financial reports)
Figure 42 Costs incurred by a standard large real estate
development company (LD)
Source: NBP. Note: according to the GUS, a large company employs on
average more than 50 persons; relates to Figures 43-49;
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01).
Figure 43 Share of own costs in the costs incurred by a large
real estate development company (LD) and the share of real
estate developer’s return in the price per square meter of
housing in the primary market
Figure 44 ROE and ROA of large real estate developers
Note: share of the real estate developer’s return until 2007,
in relation to the fourth quarters only;
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01) and Sekocenbud.
Note: net result in a given quarter as compared to assets
(equity) at the end of a given quarter:
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01).
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
IV k
w.2
004
I kw
.200
5II
kw
.200
5II
I kw
.200
5IV
kw
.200
5I
kw.2
006
II k
w.2
006
III
kw.2
006
IV k
w.2
006
I kw
.200
7II
kw
.200
7II
I kw
.200
7IV
kw
.200
7I
kw.2
008
II k
w.2
008
III
kw.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9II
kw
.200
9II
I kw
.200
9IV
kw
.200
9I
kw.2
010
II k
w.2
010
III
kw.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1II
kw
.201
1II
I kw
.201
1IV
kw
.201
1I
kw.2
012
II k
w.2
012
III
kw.2
012
Przewidywane zmiany cen robót bud.-montaż. (+3M) wg ankiety GUS
Dynamika faktycznych kosztów budowy wg Sekocenbud
1 500
1 700
1 900
2 100
2 300
2 500
2 700
2 900
II k
w.2
004
III
kw.2
004
IV k
w.2
004
I kw
.200
5II
kw
.200
5II
I kw
.200
5IV
kw
.200
5I
kw.2
006
II k
w.2
006
III
kw.2
006
IV k
w.2
006
I kw
.200
7II
kw
.200
7II
I kw
.200
7IV
kw
.200
7I
kw.2
008
II k
w.2
008
III
kw.2
008
IV k
w.2
008
I kw
.200
9II
kw
.200
9II
I kw
.200
9IV
kw
.200
9I
kw.2
010
II k
w.2
010
III
kw.2
010
IV k
w.2
010
I kw
.201
1II
kw
.201
1II
I kw
.201
1IV
kw
.201
1I
kw.2
012
II k
w.2
012
III
kw.2
012
zł /
m k
w.
Warszawa Kraków Poznań
Wrocław Gdańsk Łódź
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I 200
5
II 2
005
III 2
005
IV 2
005
I 200
6
II 2
006
III 2
006
IV 2
006
I 200
7
II 2
007
III 2
007
IV 2
007
I 200
8
II 2
008
III 2
008
IV 2
008
I 200
9
II 2
009
III 2
009
IV 2
009
I 201
0
II 2
010
III 2
010
IV 2
010
I 201
1
II 2
011
III 2
011
IV 2
011
I 201
2
II 2
012
5 największych 10największych
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
5
10
15
20
25
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
mln
zł
zużycie_mat usł_obce
wynagrodzenia inne
wsk_poz_kosztów (P oś)
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
I kw
. 20
05II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw.
2006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 20
07II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw.
2008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 20
09II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw.
2010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 20
11II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw.
2012
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
udział kosztów własnych
udział zysku deweloperskiego w cenie trans. m kw. mieszkania RP
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
I kw
. 200
5
II k
w. 2
005
III k
w. 2
005
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 200
6
II k
w. 2
006
III k
w. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7
II k
w. 2
007
III k
w. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III k
w. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III k
w. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III k
w. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III k
w. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
ROA ROE
17 / 20
Figure 45 Economic indicators of LD
Figure 46 Situation of LD
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01). Source: NBP based on GUS (F01).
Figure 47 Structure of LD assets
Figure 48 Structure of LD costs
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01). Source: NBP based on GUS (F01).
Figure 49 Structure of LD financing
Figure 50 Real estate development companies facing
financial problems */
Source: NBP based on GUS (F01). Note: */ companies whose liabilities have been classified
by banks as non-performing (this refers to large-scale
liabilities, exceeding the value of PLN 500 thousand);
Source: NBP.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50I
kw
. 2
00
5II
kw
. 2
00
5II
I k
w.
20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6II
kw
. 2
00
6II
I k
w.
20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7II
kw
. 2
00
7II
I k
w.
20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8II
kw
. 2
00
8II
I k
w.
20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9II
kw
. 2
00
9II
I k
w.
20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0II
kw
. 2
01
0II
I k
w.
20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1II
kw
. 2
01
1II
I k
w.
20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2II
kw
. 2
01
2
mln
zł
przychody koszty_og wynik_netto
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
I kw
. 2
00
5II
kw
. 2
00
5II
I k
w.
20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6II
kw
. 2
00
6II
I k
w.
20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7II
kw
. 2
00
7II
I k
w.
20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8II
kw
. 2
00
8II
I k
w.
20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9II
kw
. 2
00
9II
I k
w.
20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0II
kw
. 2
01
0II
I k
w.
20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1II
kw
. 2
01
1II
I k
w.
20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2II
kw
. 2
01
2
lata
pro
dukcj
i
mln
zl
bank_ziemi mieszkania
projekty_w_toku bank ziemi w latach prod. (P oś)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
gotowka należności odbiorcy zapasy materiałów
projekty mieszkania bank ziemi
aktywa trwałe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I kw
. 2
00
5II
kw
. 2
00
5II
I k
w.
20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6II
kw
. 2
00
6II
I k
w.
20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7II
kw
. 2
00
7II
I k
w.
20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8II
kw
. 2
00
8II
I k
w.
20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9II
kw
. 2
00
9II
I k
w.
20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0II
kw
. 2
01
0II
I k
w.
20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1II
kw
. 2
01
1II
I k
w.
20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2II
kw
. 2
01
2
zużycie materiałów i energii usługi obce wynagrodzenia inne
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
I kw
. 2
00
5
II k
w.
200
5
III
kw
. 20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6
II k
w.
200
6
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
kapitał własny kredyty
dłużne pap. wart. przedpłaty klientów
zobow. wobec dost. inne zobow. i rez.na zobow.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
udział liczby firm deweloperskich z problemami finansowymi
udział zadłużenia firm deweloperskich z problemami finansowymi
18 / 20
Figure 51 Value and growth of loans to real estate
developers (commercial banks)
Figure 52 Value of loans to real estate developers
(share of loans considered by banks as doubtful loans in
the total of loans)
Source: B300; only large loans with the value
exceeding PLN 500,000
Source: B300; only large loans with the value exceeding
PLN 500,000
Figure 53 Structure (in billions of PLN) and the value
of companies' loans for commercial real estate
Figure 54 Loans of households for residential real estate
(in billions of PLN)
Note: without BGK.
Source: NBP.
Source: NBP.
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
I kw
. 20
06
II k
w.
20
06
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
00
6
I kw
. 20
07
II k
w.
20
07
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
00
7
I kw
. 20
08
II k
w.
20
08
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
00
8
I kw
. 20
09
II k
w.
20
09
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
00
9
I kw
. 20
10
II k
w.
20
10
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
01
0
I kw
. 20
11
II k
w.
20
11
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
01
1
I kw
. 20
12
II k
w.
20
12
sier
pie
ń 2
01
2
mld
zł
r/r (L oś) zadłużenie (P oś)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
I kw
. 2
00
6
II k
w.
200
6
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
sier
pie
ń 2
01
2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
I kw
. 20
09
II k
w. 2
00
9
III
kw.
20
09
IV k
w. 2
00
9
I kw
. 20
10
II k
w. 2
01
0
III
kw.
20
10
IV k
w. 2
01
0
I kw
. 20
11
II k
w. 2
01
1
III
kw. 2
01
1
IV k
w. 2
01
1
I kw
. 20
12
II k
w. 2
01
2
III
kw.
20
12
Kredyty na powierzchnię biurowąKredyty na nieruchomości mieszkanioweKredyty na nieruchomości pozostałeWskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nieruchomości mieszkanioweWskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na powierzchnię biurowąWskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na pozostałe nieruchomości
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
I kw
. 200
9
II kw
. 200
9
III k
w. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II kw
. 201
0
III k
w. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II kw
. 201
1
III k
w. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II kw
. 201
2
III k
w. 2
012
Kredyty hipoteczne mieszkaniowe
Wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych na nieruchomości mieszkaniowe
19 / 20
5. Residential construction and housing market in Poland in selected cities
Figure 55 Poland – structure of investors in residential
construction in the third quarters of 2011 and 2012
Figure 56 Poland - completed housing, per quarter
Source: GUS. Note to Figures 56-58: marked Q3;
Source: GUS.
Figure 57 Poland – housing units under construction, per
quarter
Figure 58 Poland – permits issued for housing
construction, per quarter
Source: GUS. Source: GUS.
Figure 59 Housing market indicator in Poland and in
Poland’s six largest cities*/
(housing under construction
minus completed and sold housing)
Figure 60 Number of housing units put on the market,
both sold and offered for sale in Poland’s six largest
markets*/
The index is a 12-month rolling figure;
*/Warsaw, Cracow, Gdańsk, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław;
Source: NBP based on PABB and GUS.
*/Warsaw, Cracow, Gdańsk-Sopot-Gdynia
agglomeration, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź;
Source: REAS.
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
20
11
20
12
20
11
20
12
20
11
20
12
mieszkania oddane mieszkania
rozpoczęte
pozwolenia na
budowę
pozostałe przezn.na sprzed. i wynajem
indywidualne spółdzielcze
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
I kw
. 2
00
5
II k
w.
200
5
III
kw
. 20
05
IV k
w. 2
005
I kw
. 2
00
6
II k
w.
200
6
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
mie
szkan
ia
w
kw
arta
łach
pozostała Polska 6 miast
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
I kw
. 200
5II
kw
. 200
5II
I kw
. 200
5IV
kw
. 200
5I
kw. 2
006
II k
w. 2
006
III
kw. 2
006
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 200
7II
kw
. 200
7II
I kw
. 200
7IV
kw
. 200
7I
kw. 2
008
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9II
kw
. 200
9II
I kw
. 200
9IV
kw
. 200
9I
kw. 2
010
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1II
kw
. 201
1II
I kw
. 201
1IV
kw
. 201
1I
kw. 2
012
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
mie
szka
nia
w k
war
tała
ch
pozostała Polska 6 miast
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
I kw
. 2
005
II k
w.
200
5II
I k
w.
200
5IV
kw
. 20
05I
kw.
200
6II
kw
. 2
006
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I kw
. 2
007
II k
w.
200
7II
I k
w.
200
7IV
kw
. 20
07I
kw.
200
8II
kw
. 2
008
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
009
II k
w.
200
9II
I k
w.
200
9IV
kw
. 20
09I
kw.
201
0II
kw
. 2
010
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
011
II k
w.
201
1II
I k
w.
201
1IV
kw
. 20
11I
kw.
201
2II
kw
. 2
012
III
kw
. 20
12
mie
szka
nia
w k
war
tała
ch
pozostała Polska 6 miast
-70 000
-50 000
-30 000
-10 000
10 000
30 000
50 000
70 000
90 000
110 000
130 000
150 000
I kw
. 2
00
6
II k
w.
200
6
III
kw
. 20
06
IV k
w. 2
006
I k
w.
200
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
mie
szkan
ia
Polska
6 miast
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
I kw
. 2
00
7
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
mie
szkan
ia
wprowadzone w kwartale sprzedane w kwartale
oferta na koniec kwartału
20 / 20
Figure 61 Growth in the average price per square meter of
housing put on sale in the primary market in Poland’s six
largest cities*/
(2007 Q1=100)
Figure 62 Availability of loan-financed housing versus
housing units sold in Poland’s six largest cities*/
(demand
and supply estimates)
*/ Warsaw, Cracow, Gdańsk-Sopot-Gdynia agglomeration,
Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź;
Source: REAS.
*/Warsaw, Cracow, Gdańsk, Poznań, Wrocław, Łódź;
Source: NBP based on REAS.
Figure 63 Structure of supply and demand*/
for housing
with an area ≤ 50 square meters in the primary market in
selected cities in Poland
Figure 64 Structure of supply and demand*/
for housing
with an area ≤ 50 square meters in the primary market in
selected cities in Poland
Note: Figure 60 presents a mismatch (in %) between supply
(developers' housing offer) and the estimated demand
(housing transactions) in terms of the housing unit's size,
according to data from the BaRN database; the mismatch is
calculated as the ratio of the share of housing units with a
usable area of up to 50 square meters offered for sale to the
number of transactions involving housing units with a total
area of up to 50 square meters (the average figure for the
last four quarters). The positive result (above the line)
indicates a surplus of housing of this particular size, whereas
the negative result indicates a shortage thereof. Figure 61 is
parallel.
Source: NBP. Source: NBP.
80
90
100
110
120
130
II k
w.
200
7
III
kw
. 20
07
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 2
00
8
II k
w.
200
8
III
kw
. 20
08
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 2
00
9
II k
w.
200
9
III
kw
. 20
09
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 2
01
0
II k
w.
201
0
III
kw
. 20
10
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 2
01
1
II k
w.
201
1
III
kw
. 20
11
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 2
01
2
II k
w.
201
2
III
kw
. 20
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
I kw
.200
7
II k
w.2
00
7
III
kw
.200
7
IV k
w.2
00
7
I kw
.200
8
II k
w.2
00
8
III
kw
.200
8
IV k
w.2
00
8
I kw
.200
9
II k
w.2
00
9
III
kw
.200
9
IV k
w.2
00
9
I kw
.201
0
II k
w.2
01
0
III
kw
.201
0
IV k
w.2
01
0
I kw
.201
1
II k
w.2
01
1
III
kw
.201
1
IV k
w.2
01
1
I kw
.201
2
II k
w.2
01
2
III
kw
.201
2
m k
w.
mie
szkania
mieszkania sprzedane 6M
kredytowa dostępność mieszkania 6M ważona*/ (P oś)
3 okr. śr. ruch. (mieszkania sprzedane 6M)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
II k
w. 2
007
III k
w. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III k
w. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III k
w. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III k
w. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III k
w. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III k
w. 2
012
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%II
kw
. 200
7
III
kw. 2
007
IV k
w. 2
007
I kw
. 200
8
II k
w. 2
008
III
kw. 2
008
IV k
w. 2
008
I kw
. 200
9
II k
w. 2
009
III
kw. 2
009
IV k
w. 2
009
I kw
. 201
0
II k
w. 2
010
III
kw. 2
010
IV k
w. 2
010
I kw
. 201
1
II k
w. 2
011
III
kw. 2
011
IV k
w. 2
011
I kw
. 201
2
II k
w. 2
012
III
kw. 2
012
Gdańsk Kraków Łódź
Poznań Warszawa Wrocław
