“Autonomous Database & Analytics” · Energy consumption profile related to each bus during stop...
Transcript of “Autonomous Database & Analytics” · Energy consumption profile related to each bus during stop...
Filip Kaznowski,
Business Development Director, Oracle Consulting CEE
Amadeusz Dańko
BI Consultant, Accelerated Autonomous Practice, Oracle Consulting EMEA
“Autonomous Database & Analytics”Nowe podejście, czyli czy można w 5 dni skutecznie pomóc działom biznesowym?
Oracle Consulting
The following is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions. The development, release, timing, and pricing of any features or functionality described for Oracle’s products may change and remains at the sole discretion of Oracle Corporation.
Statements in this presentation relating to Oracle’s future plans, expectations, beliefs, intentions and prospects are “forward-looking statements” and are subject to material risks and uncertainties. A detailed discussion of these factors and other risks that affect our business is contained in Oracle’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including our most recent reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q under the heading “Risk Factors.” These filings are available on the SEC’s website or on Oracle’s website at http://www.oracle.com/investor. All information in this presentation is current as of September 2019 and Oracle undertakes no duty to update any statement in light of new information or future events.
Safe Harbor
Expotential growth
33
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
Calculations/SecPer 1000 USD
Unicorns (>1 bln USD market cap companies)
What can you expect from Oracle Consulting?
Expert knowledgeGuidance that’ll help you Accelerate with Autonomous
Customer centricWe listen to your needs and help get the most out of your Data
Innovative & Rapid approachWe offer real business value in only 5 days!
Consulting IP Library
7
Enterprise Analytics -Finance
Talent Review
Telco Churn PredictionBank Loan Analysis
Sales Pipeline
Tax and Welfare
Enterprise Analytics -HCM
Enterprise Analytics -SCM
Resource Mining Extraction Control
Energy Controlling
POS Analytics
IoT Analytics on Elevators
Budget Analysis
Sales Compensation
Asset Liability Management reports
Banking Channel Analysis
Spend Analysis
Patient Visit Analysis
Electricity Load Profile
HR Attrition
Sales Prediction
Field Service
Airline Sales Analysis
Service Cloud Incidents
Urban Transport Organization Datamart
IoT Analytics on Elevators
DV Plugins
DV Sample Project Extended
Results & Next Steps
Present findings & results of the Use Case and define a Roadmap for Expansion:-
- Cloud Services / OAC
- Data Integration / ETL
- Users
- Data
- Functionality
What does an ADW Rapid Start look like?
Benefits of adopting ADWCMake your Analytics AutonomousStart your cloud journey
Use Case Definition
Solution Design
Provisioning
Guide you on deciding a quick
win that maximizes
value of ADWCS & agree
deliverables for a Use Case.
Evaluate how to implement the
solution including any
applicable connections
and agree data source(s) for
Use Case.
Set up ADW instance & show how to connect
data load option,
performance dashboard and
Data Visualization
Desktop
Load Data Build Reports
Migrate your data into the ADW environment.
Design & build reports, dashboards or insights to deliver real business value
with a permanent solution
Day 1 Days 2-4 Day 5
Sample ATP themes / use cases
Build new or
move existing APEX
application
Create an FAQ Chatbot
Create a Mobile App
Design & set up a New ATP to capture IoT
data
L&S an existing database to ATP
Every business has FAQ tool or application, either for Employees
or Customers. Modernize by loading to ATP and improve
responsiveness with Machine Learning
A modern looking and responding mobile app for
an existing or new standalone workflowie Invitation tracking for internal event,
customer/employee survey, …
Several dashboardsto allow for smart
real-time monitoring Sensor IoT Prognostics, …
To show the performance / security / maintenance gains
ADW Rapid Start project delivery reference
Oracle ML in Action – Bus TerminalEnergy consumption prediction for a bus station
Oracle Consulting Advanced Analytics
Problem
• Energy consumption as key cost
• Undefined consumption drivers
• Inability to spot key consumption drivers
• Buying more than needed - inability to predict usage and choose best energy supply
• Inability to be „greener” thorough better optimized power consumption
Bus terminal – Project Overview
Action
• Determine the power consumption drivers
• Spot core consumption drivers
• Predict future consumption with ML techniques
Bus terminal – Objective
15
Bus terminal – Project Overview
In June 2019, Oracle started a 10-days Advanced Analytics Project to identify potential improvements in
prediction, integrating additional internal and external data.
Scope of the ProjectBus Station
2016 2017 2018 20202019
Jan-Dec 2018
Data extraction Time Horizon Project Team
Cloud & Consulting Service
Bus Station
External and Internal Data Sources used for the Project
Energy Consumption
PREDICTION
Weather Data
INTERNAL
• External Temperature (hourly)
• External Humidity (hourly)
Other Business info
impacting Energy Consum.
• Bus arriving in the station
• Bus departing from the station
Weather Data
EXTERNAL
• Air temperature
• Air pressure
• Clouds
• ...
Prediction Model
Energy Consumption
ACTUAL
Paid data
• Electrical Energy Consumption. (hourly)
Energy consumption profile related to each bus during stop at the station
Energy related to
Passengers ARRIVING
Energy related to
Passengers DEPARTING
Arrival Departure
Time
Electric
Energy
t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t4
Bus Terminal
15 min
~1 h
Advanc. (min) % passeng.
60 10%
45 20%
30 50%
20 90%
10 100%
5 100%
0 100%
For DEPARTING passengers, the following distribution
has been defined for advance minutes vs departing time
Energy related to
Charging Buses
Charging Time
Selected algorithms
Supervised Learning Functions
Unsupervised Learning Functions
2) Selected algorithms for REGRESSION:
1. Generalized Linear Model (GLM)
2. Support Vector Machines (SVM)
3. Neural Network (NN)
1) Selected algorithm for ATTRIBUTE IMPORTNACE:
1. Minimum Description Length (MDL)
Validation approach
Our Oracle Analytics platform provides specific features to support Data preparation and Model Validation.
Validation and comparison of the algorithms has been performed on a random subset of data calculating three standard indicators.
Actual Consumption historical Data
30%
70%
Training
Test
1) Root Mean Squared Error
Actual Values Prediction
2) Mean Absolute Error
Actual Values Prediction
3) Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Actual Values
Prediction
ML process flow
Data preparation(combining)
Data split(training/test)
Creating & populating ML settings table
Building machinelearning model
Checking model settings and
attributes
Testing on test data, getting RMSE, MAE,
MAPE.
Aggregating the results for analysis
21
Machine Learning
Preliminary analysis using Analytics Cloud
Energy Consumption (by Day)
Peaks in summer period(probably for holidays, air conditioning)
Correlation
Correlation close to 1• Electric Power and Arriving Passengers positively correlated• Electric Power and External Temperature positively correlated
Electric Power and Arriving Passengers tend to increase/decrease together
Attribute Importance and Model Validation
Attributes filtering
Algorithm execution
Attribute Importance Output Model Validation
NN Prediction error % lower than the other
most of the time
Regression model results for Electrical Energy - Prediction vs Actual
Month: January 2018
Hourly basis
Daily basis
Customer Success
• The customer uses our model regularly, feeding it with new data
• Very precise estimations of energy demand
• Key consumption drivers determined
• Adequate energy amounts purchased
• All ML processes within one database - reducing cost, increasing stability and accelerating results
The value of Oracle Consulting Rapid Start
Rapid insight into your data providing business value,driven by your requirements
Flexible scope to adapt to your needs
Repeatable & proven approach across International
A vast library of Consulting IP Assets and years of expertisewith Oracle Products
100%
Dziękujemy za uwagę
Accelerate Autonomous Practice
Oracle Consulting