2 ARS Mikro Ekonomi Migas

8/12/2019 2 ARS Mikro Ekonomi Migas

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ANALISIS HARGAMINYAK GASARSEGIANTO

Institut Teknologi BandungProgram Studi Teknik Perminyakan

2012


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BUKU ACUAN

Jack Hirshleifer

Price Theory and Application

Prentice Hall, Inc.

Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey

1987

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YANG AKAN DIBAHAS

A. TERBENTUKNYA HARGA

B. ANALISIS SUPLAI

C. ANALISIS DEMAN

D. PAJAK DAN SUBSIDI

E. KEGAGALAN PASAR

F. KEBIJAKAN HARGA PADA MONOPOLI YANG DIATUR

G. EKONOMI SUMBERDAYA TIDAK TERBARUKAN

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TERBENTUKNYA HARGA

Pada sistem pasar, harga (P) terbentuk oleh perpotongankurva penawaran dan kurva permintaan. Output atauvolume transaksi ada di X.

P

0 X

Permintaan

Penawaran

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ANALISIS PENAWARAN

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Fungsi Produksi

X1

X2

YINDUSTRY k

Y = y(X1 , X2)

Cobb-Douglas: Y = A KLD

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X1

X2

Y = 5

0

Y = 8

4

10

2 8

Output Y=5 dihasilkan dari kombinasiinput (X1=2 dan X2=10) atau kombinasi

input (X1=8 dan X2=4)

Pada kombinasi input (X1=8 dan X2=4), input X1 tetap 8,

sementara X2 dinaikkan menjadi 10. Output bertambah

menjadi 8; kedua input saling mensubstitusi.

Kurva Isoquant

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X1

X2

Y*

0

Y**

Y* < Y**

Input X1 dan X2 sama sekali

tidak dapat saling substitusi

X2

X1

Y*

Y**

Substitusi antar Input

Input X1 dan X2 saling substitusi

secara sempurna

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X1

X2

0

l

Budget Line

Budget line (l) menunjukkan kombinasi input yang dapat

diperoleh dari budget yang tersedia. Sudut budget linemerepresentasikan perbandingan harga input.

1

2

2

1

2

Harga input X2 tetap, hargaX1

naik, jumlahX1 berkurang, budget

line bergeser mendekati 0

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X

$

0

FC

C = FC + VC VC

Total Cost (C) = Fixed Cost (FC) + Variable Cost (VC)

Fungsi Biaya

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AVERAGE COST (AC) DAN MARGINAL COST (MC)

X

C

0

C = f(X)

MC

AC

Average Cost, AC = C/X

Marginal Cost, MC = dC/dX

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AC minimum pada MC = AC

Diseconomies of scale

Economies of scale di daerah di mana d(AC)/dx < 0

Diseconomies of scale di daerah di mana d(AC)/dx >0

0 X

C

0 X

MC

AC

Economies of scale

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Ilustrasi (1)

Cost function suatu sumur minyak ditunjukkan olehpersamaam berikutC = 0,5y2 + 6y + 10.

Berapa fixed cost, total cost, marginal cost, dan

average cost pada y = 10 ?Solusi: Fixed cost = 10

MC = y + 6

AC = 0,5y + 6 + 10/y

Pada y = 10,

C = 0,5 x 102 + 6 x 10 + 10 = 120

MC = 10 + 6 = 16

AC = 0,5 x 10 + 6 + 10/10 = 1214


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Optimisasi Produsen

MCMR

dx

dC

dx

dR

dx

d

dx

dC

dx

dR

dx

d

CR

=

=

=

=

=

atau

:sehingga

0keadaanpadaMaximum

Profit maximizing producer will produce at theoptimum output, where MC = MR.

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Sistem Pasar

Sistem pasar terbentuk terdapat banyak produsen danbanyak konsumen saling bersaing dalam melakukantransaksi Tiap individu produsen memiliki pangsakecil sehingga tidak dapat mempengaruhi harga pasar

Rp

C

0 X

C > R

R

C > R

R > C

P

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Optimasi Produsen di Sistem Pasar

dx

dPxP

dx

Pxd

dx

dRMR

PxR

+===

=

)(

Pada sistem pasar, P f(x)

MC = MR = P

Produsen adalah price taker. Secara individu ia tidakdapat mempengaruhi harga. Produsen merespons hargadengan mengatur output sedemikian sehingga MC = P

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Respons Produsen Terhadap Perubahan Harga

0 X1 X2 X3

MC

Sebagai price taker, produsen merespon terhadapperubahan harga. Harga meningkat akan membuatprodusen meningkatkan outputnya, dan sebaliknya.

P3

P2

P1

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Suplai Industri di Sistem Pasar

0 X1

Kurva suplai

MC = MC1

+MC2

MC1MC2

Kurva suplai industri adalah kompositdari semua establishments di industri.

P

X2 X1+X2

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ANALISIS PERMINTAAN

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TEORI UTILITI

0

For fixed increment of x,additional Ui is diminishing :

U1 > U2 >U3

U

x x x x

U3

U2

U1

U = f(X)

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Fungsi Utilit i Untuk 2 komodit i X1 dan X2

0

U

X1, X2

U = f(X1,0)

U = f(0,X2)

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Kurva Iso-Utiliti

Sepanjang kurva, kombinasi X1 dan X2 memberikantingkat utiliti yang sama.

Bentuk kurve ini konvex ke pusat. Mengapa?

0

x1

x2

U = f(X1,X2)

5

8

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y = IncomeP1, P2 = price of commodities 1 and 2

x1, x2 = volume of commodities 1 dan 2

0

U1 < U2 < U3

x1

x2

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Budget Line

),,(

),,(

2122

2111

2211

PPyxx

PPyxxxPxPy

=

=+

y = IncomeP1, P2 = harga komoditas 1 dan 2

x1, x2 = volume komoditas 1 dan 2

0

y = P1x1 + P2x2

x1

x2

2

1

1

2

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Optimisasi Konsumen

),,(

),,(

2122

2111

2211

PPyxx

PPyxxxPxPy

=

=+



0

X1

X2 X 2X2

X 1

X1

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Optimisasi Konsumen

),,(

),,(

2122

2111

2211

PPyxx

PPyxxxPxPy

=

=+



0

x1

x2

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INCOME ELASTICITY

=

==dy

dx

x

y

ydy

x

dx

yincomeofchange%

for xdemandofchange%

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OWN-PRICE ELASTICITY

=

==dP

dx

x

P

P

dP

x

dx

xPpriceofchange%

for xdemandofchange%

CROSS-PRICE ELASTICITY

=

==2

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

x2Ppriceofchange%for x1demandofchane%

dPdx

xP

P

dPx

dx

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Sistem Monopoli

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Monopolistic system occurs when there is onlyone or a group of producers behaving such as asingle producer deals with many consumers.Price changes with the producers output.

Rp

C

0 X

C > R

R

C > RR > C

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PMRdx

dPdx

dPxPMR

xfP

Px

dx

dMR


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Harga pada Monopoli

MC

MR

P = AR (average revenue)

PM

0 yM

Price responds to output. MR lies below P (= AR).Producer maximizes profit at MC = MR at YM

At output YM

, the corresponding price is PM


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ANALISIS WELFARE

Sistem pasar menjamin ekonomi bekerja secara efisien

seperti ditunjukkan oleh analisis welfare.

CS (consumers surplus) = ABP

PS (producer surplus) = BCP

SW (social welfare) = CS + PS= ABC

SW merepresentasikan efisiensi

ekonomi.

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Supply

Demand

P

0 y1 y2

A

B

C

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TAX AND SUBSIDY

Tax makes output decrease and price increase ....

0 x

P = f(x)

SPT

P0

XM X0

S + T

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Terdapat 100 perusahaan yang identik dan saling bersaing. Masing-

masing perusahaan mempunyai persamaan biaya:

Ci = 0,1 yi 2 + 5yi + 10

Fungsi permintaan adalah : Y = - 400 P + 6500

Apabila dikenakan pajak sebesar 1 per produk, siapa yang

membayar pajak?

WHO PAY TAX ?

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Pengaruh Pajak Terhadap Efisiensi Ekonomi

Pajak membuat efisiensi ekonomi menurun

CS = ADPP

PS = CEF

TX (pajak) = DEFPP

Swdengan pajak = CS+PS+TX

= ADEC

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Demand

Supply

P

0 y1 y2

A

B

C

Supply + Pajak

PP D

EF

SW Swdenganpajak = DEB

(dead weight loss)

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while subsidy makes output increase and price decrease

0 x

P = f(x)

S

P0

PSb

XM X0

S - Sb

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Terdapat 100 perusahaan yang identik dan saling bersaing. Masing-

masing perusahaan mempunyai persamaan biaya:

Ci = 0,1 yi 2 + 5yi + 10

Fungsi permintaan adalah : Y = - 400 P + 2000

Apabila pemerintah memberikan subsidi 1 per produk, siapa yang

menikmati subsidi tersebut?

WHO ENJOY SUBSIDY?

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Pengaruh Subsidi Terhadap Efisiensi Ekonomi

Subsidi membuat efisiensi ekonomi bertambah

CS = ADPS

PS = DFPS

SP (subsidi) = DEFPP

SWsubsidi = CS+PS-SP

= ABP + CEF + BED

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Supply

Demand

P

0 y yS

A

B

C

Supply + Subsidi

PS D

E

F

Swsubsidi

SW = BDE

Efisiensi ekonomi naik

sebesar BDE dengan

adanya subsidi

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MARKET FAILURE

Market system guarantees the economy work efficiently asshown by welfare analysis.

There are some conditions that make market fail (market

failure) to keep economy efficient, those are when facing :

Public goods Non-renewable resources

Natural monopoly

Economic externality

Tax

Subsidy

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NON-RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCE

For example: crude oil, natural gas, coal

o The extraction of non-renewable natural resource at

present will decrease the volume of the extractable

resource in the future.

o Government may levy depletion premium for each

unit of resource extracted to finance the effort of

finding the replacing alternatives of the same amount.

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GOVERNMENT MADE MONOPOLY

Example: electricity network, gas network

o Electricity network or gas network is served at certain area by

single operator (monopolist). No other operator may operate

in that area.

o Government may establish a state company to operate the

business, or award a monopoly right to private company

through bidding. Although the operation right is monopolized

by the company, government still hold the right in

determining the price of the service.

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NATURAL MONOPOLY

Declining average cost.

Price decreases asdemand increases

P1

P2

X1 X2

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Zero profit pricing

Rate of Return Regulation

Multi-part pricing

Long-run Marginal Cost Pricing

PRICE SETTING UNDER

REGULATED MONOPOLY SYSTEM

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ZERO PROFIT PRICING

)().(

0..

:conditionprofitZero

yPy

yyPAR

yACyARTCTR

ACAR

==

==

=

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MULTI-PART PRICING

MC

MRAR

P1

P2

0y

1y

2

Consumers 1 (the haves) pay at P1, and consumers 2 (the haves-

not) pay at P2.

Area = Area

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Averch - Johnson Effect :

is the tendency of companies to engage in excessiveamounts of capital accumulation in order to expand thevolume of their profits. If companies profits to capital ratio isregulated at a certain percentage then there is a strongincentive for companies to over-invest in order to increaseprofits overall. This goes against any ptimal efficiency pointfor capital that the company may have calculated as higherprofit is almost always desired

over and above efficiency.References

Averch, Harvey; Johnson, Leland L. (1962). "Behavior of theFirm Under Regulatory Constraint".American Economic

Review 52 (5):10521069. JSTOR 1812181. 53


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RATE-OF-RETURN REGULATION

Pipa transmisi sepanjang 300 km, diameter 28dibangun untuk mengalirkan gas sebesar 300MMCF/D. Kompresor yang dipasang berukuran 1.000HP. Biaya investasi pipa (termasuk pembebasan

tanah, comissioning dll) US$ 20/in.meter. Biayapembangunan stasiun kompresor adalah US$5 jutaplus US$ 1500/HP. Overhead tahunan US$ 2 juta, danO&M (operation and maintenance) per tahun untukpipa dan kompresor adalah 2% dan 25% dari investasiawal kapital masing-masing. Pemerintah menetapkanIRR sebesar 10% per tahun. Berapa toll-fee gas dalamUS$ per MSCF?

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AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Aggregate supply refers to the amount of output that

business will produce and sell, given the prevailing prices,

productive capacity, and costs Aggregate demand refers to the amount that consumers,

firms, government will spend, given the prevailing prices,

income, and other economic variables

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Short run: wage rate is constant (low), contractbetween employer and employee

AD

Long Run

Short Run

Output

AggregatePrice

AS

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AD = f(price, income, taxes, government spending,money supply, future expectation)

AD

Output does not change (orincrease infinitesimal)

Short Run

Output

AggregatePrice

AS

Cost of adjustment = price increase

P*

P AD*

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AD = f(price, income, taxes, government spending,money supply, future expectation)

AGGREGATE DEMAND

Y = C + I

Y = C + S

Consumption

Disposable Income (Y)

Exp

enditure

C(Y)Saving

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INVESTMENT

Category : 1. purchase of equipment

2. adding to inventories

3. construction of factories, houses, etc.

Decision to invest

Profit = Revenue Cost > 0Cost = f(interest rate, tax, labour, feedstock, etc.)

Interest rate : nominal

real = nominal inflation rate

CPIt CPIt-1Inflation Rate = ---------------- x 100%

CPIt

In the long term, investment is volatile

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NATIONAL INCOME DETERMINATION

Classical approach : all prices and wages are very muchflexible and clear out the market

Keynesian approach : all prices and wages are not flexible,especially in short term (workingbased on contract)

AD

Output

Price

ASAD

AD

Keynesian

PriceAS

AD

Classical

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PETROLEUM ECONOMY INTERACTION


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PETROLEUM ECONOMY INTERACTION

Y (Gross output of non-petroleum sector) = y (E,R)

E = petroleum input

R = non-petroleum input

Assume that y is linearly homogenous, i.e. y = (y / E) E + (y / R) R

If efficiency in production is assumed, then maximizing y(E,R) PE E PR R

Yields : (y /E) = P and (y / R) = P

Multiply each with E/Y and R/Y respectively,

Ey PE E PR R R y-- ---- = ------- = SE and SR = -------- = --- -----YE Y Y YR

Assuming value of petroleum share,SE, remains constant over a wide range of E, then

Y E Y E---- = SE ---- ln --- = SE ----Y E Y0 E0

ES

E

E

Y

Y

=

00

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( ) [ ]

[ ]

=

=

==

=+=

+==

=

E

E

E

E

PyaE

E

ya

E

yaP

E

yaaEbRaE

E

y

bRaEREyy

Sy

EP

E

y

y

E

:Then

E

y

efficienteconomicAssuming

1

,

/11

1

11/1

/1

This is an approximate form of the energy demand as the function of y and

PE. It assumes of y/E only (ceteris paribus)

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[ ]

( )

outputonimpactmoregivewill

tyavailabilienergyinchangeThe1

)(1

(constant)1If

ys:haveWe

economies,efficientIn

)(

P

1

>=

2 ARS Mikro Ekonomi Migas

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