(20%)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

1Q

15

3Q

15

1Q

16

3Q

16

1Q

17

3Q

17

1Q

18

3Q

18

1Q

19

(2,2%)

1,0%

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

Dec

emb

er-1

3

Mar

ch-1

4

Jun

e-1

4

Sep

tem

ber

-14

Dec

emb

er-1

4

Mar

ch-1

5

Jun

e-1

5

Sep

tem

ber

-15

Dec

emb

er-1

5

Mar

ch-1

6

Jun

e-1

6

Sep

tem

ber

-16

Dec

emb

er-1

6

Mar

ch-1

7

Jun

e-1

7

Sep

tem

ber

-17

Dec

emb

er-1

7

Mar

ch-1

8

Jun

e-1

8

Sep

tem

ber

-18

Dec

emb

er-1

8

Mar

ch-1

9

General gov't balance* Primary balance

2,9

4,6

5,4

4,5

3,6

6,6 6,8 6,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

82

01

7

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

Quasi-sov.

IMF (reserves)

Sov. Eurobonds

US/EU/WB

IMF (budget)

Interest

Gov't Total

Public Sector Total

Albania

Poland Kosovo

Belarus

Lithuania

Slovakia

Montenegro

Hungary

Latvia

Estonia

Makedonia

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Serbia

Russia

Romania

Czech Republic

Moldova

Croatia

Ukraine

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of years of real GDP decline (1996-2017)

Avera

ge r

eal G

DP g

row

th (

1996-2

017)

Note: 2001-2017 data for Montenegro and Kosovo, 1999-2017 data for Serbia. Source: IMF, Dragon Capital

•

•

•

•

•

•

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

•

•

•

•

•