Scenarios of Coal Technology Development –Energy Foresight for Poland by 2030

7/23/2019 Scenarios of Coal Technology Development –Energy Foresight for Poland by 2030

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Scenarios of Coal Technology

Development – Energy Foresight forPoland by 2030

Krzysztof Stańczyk*, Krystyna Czaplicka-Kolarz,Jerzy Świą drowski

Central Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland

*)

[email protected]



Content of lecture:

•What is foresight?

•The aim and scope of Energy Foresight for Poland

•Short methodology

•The preliminary results

•Summary



What is foresight?

Foresight can be defined as a systematic, participativeprocess of creating the medium and long-term vision of

the future. It involves a set of actions aiming atmultidimensional assessment of future developmenttrends based on present state of science, technology,social awareness and their interrelations. The foresightmethodology is most often used as a source of diagnosisof serious social and economic problems in varioustimescales and as a forecasting and decision making tool

for governments (political programmes), business sectorand public institutions (e.g. business strategyprogrammes).



What is foresight?

The technology foresight is one of a various kind of

foresights, focusing on a vision of development of one ormore sectors of the economy

The energy foresight focuses on an assessment andimplementation of new technologies, essential for fuel andenergy production and utilization.



The aim and scope of the EnergyForesight for Poland

The foresight exercise was launched in 2006 on the

request of Polish Ministry of Economy by the consortiumof research and development institutes. The projecttitled ‘The scenarios of Technological Development of

Fuel and Energy Complex for National Energy Security’ isco-financed in equal shares by the Ministry of Economyand the research organizations. Central Mining Institute

is a leading unit in this project.




The aim of the foresight exercise is the identificationof key technologies of strategic importance for national

economy development and national energy security,followed by the elaboration of scenarios of theirdevelopment by 2030.




The specific features of Polish energy market:

1. Very high share of coal as primary energy carries–about

61.3%

Coal reserves in Poland:

- documented balanced reserves of hard coal – 43.321 billion tones- documented balanced reserves of lignite – 13.634 billion tones

2. Very high share of coal in electricity production – about95%

3. Lack of considerable national resources of crude oil and

natural gas.Present Polish production capacities of these carriers satisfy thenational needs in 5% and 19%, respectively.



h d f h E




The foresight exercises were conducted in eight thematicgroups:

•hard coal and lignite based power generation technologies•coal treatment technologies

•technologies for management of combustion waste

products•technologies for oil and gas industries

•renewable and alternative fuels based power generationtechnologies

•hydropower, wind power and geothermal technologies

•nuclear power generation technologies•hydrogen energy technologies.



Short methodologyThe energy foresight exercise was based on commonly used worldwide

Delphi survey.The key stages of the project are following:1. Analysis of the results of previous Delphi surveys and energy

foresights conducted in other countries.

2. Review and analysis of the state of the art technologies, market, social,environmental, political and economic conditions related to energysector.

3. Identification of problem fields in terms of technologies andconditions.

4. Impact analysis based on problem fields analysis.

5. Formulation of Delphi statements, that is factors determining theenergy demand in the defined timescale.

6. Production of Delphi questionnaire, accessible on the internet forrecognized experts and wide consultancy group of stakeholders.

7. The analysis and quantitative assessment of Delphi survey data andtechnology scenario (roadmap) building.

h h l



Short methodologyAnalysis of Delphi

surveys and foreign

energy foresights

Analysis of:-technologies state of art

- different conditions

List of technologiesList of conditions

-STEEP-SWOT

Identification of

emergingtechnologies Cross-impact analysis ofconditions

Formulation ofDelphi statementsand questionnaire

preparation

Delphi surveys (two stages)

Analysis of results

Energy consumption

prognosis Scenarios and roadmapping building

Scenarios and roadmapping Scheme of basic steps ofenergy foresight

h l l



The preliminary results

The foresight should be completed in the second half of2007.

Actually:

•Two rounds of Delphi survey were carried over and

statistical analysis was elaborated

•The key technologies for energy sector developmentscenarios building were selected

•Two option prognosis of energy consumption for theperiod to 2030 were elaborated

Ch lt f th E t St t t



Chosen results of the Expert Statementsfor Delphi Survey

Statement 2.Development of the power industrywill be governed by rules of the

market economy but in initial stagegovernment will be promoting

development of renewable energysources

2%

2%

4%

71%

22%

0%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

never

after 2030

2021 - 2030

2011 - 2020

before 2010

10%

18%

8%

14%

18%

64%

69%

65%

59%61%

18%

8%

22%

14%

20%

8%

4% 4%

12%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Wealthcreation

Environment Quality of life Energy security Increase innumber of innovativecompanies2. Assessment of impact

0%

33%

75%

75%

59%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Other actions

Increase in public acceptance

Legislation

Fiscal measures

Increase in applied research

Increase in basic research

3. Proposed actions needed

1. Assessment of time of occurrence

Th li i lt




AverageError of

theaverage

Standarddeviation

Me Q1 Q3

Statement 2 2014,7 0,573 5,785 2014,9 2011,2 2018,5

Example of statistical analysis for chosen general Delphi statement

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

Average+/- error Average +/- stand.

dev.

Q1/Me/Q3

Chosen results of the Expert Statements



Statement 10.Coal gasification in Polish conditions

will be fundamental source ofhydrogen

2. Assessment of impact 3. Proposed actions needed

1. Assessment of time of occurrence

23%

31%

23%

23%

0%

0%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

never

after 2030

2021 - 2030

2011 - 2020

before 2010

0%

18%

0% 0%

27%

73%

55%

64%

91%

73%

18%

27%

36%

9%

0%

9%

0% 0% 0% 0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wealthcreation

Environment Quality of life Energy security Increase innumber of innovativecompanies

0%

31%

31%

38%

77%

54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Increase in applied research

Increase in basic research

Fiscal measures

Legislation

Increase in public acceptance

Other actions

Chosen results of the Expert Statementsfor Delphi statement for hydrogen technology

Th li i lt




Example of statistical analysis for chosen Delphi statement forhydrogen technology

AverageError of

the

average

Standarddeviation

Me Q1 Q3

Statement 10 2030,0 2,212 10,835 2031,0 2021,0 2041,0

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

. Q1/Me/Q3 Average+/- error

Average +/- stand.dev.

Th li i lt




Key technologies for electricity generation

•hard coal fired power plants with pulverized-fuel boiler systems,

desulphurization, denitriding and dedusting facilities of 50% netefficiency and CO2 capture and storage facilities of 43% net efficiency

•high efficiency power generation systems based on IGCC technologywith and without CO2 capture and storage

•IGCC systems for cogeneration of electricity, methanol and hydrogen,enabling to reduce the costs of electricity production with CO2 captureand storage

•gas-steam systems with high efficiency gas turbines (inlet temperatureover 15000C)

•high-temperature nuclear reactors for electricity and heat production

for chemical processes (e.g. coal gasification, hydrogen production)•fuel cell cogeneration systems

Th p limin sults




Key technologies for network heat generation

•high efficiency gas-steam systems for combinedelectricity and heat generation

•absorption heat pumps for heat generation in dwelling-houses

•geothermal network heat generation plants

•municipal waste combustion plants for network heat andelectricity production





Key technologies for vehicle drives

•hybrid systems fed with electricity and liquid fuels

•fuel cells




The preliminary resultsPrognosis of primary energy consumption (%) in Poland by

energy carriers for two options Year

Energy carrier 2005 2030

(reference option)

2030

(alternative option)Lignite 13.6 7.5 8.0

Hard coal 43.9 41.6 35.1

Crude oil andpetrochemicals

24.0 24.4 23.4

Natural gas 13.1 16.4 18.4

Renevable 5.4 8.6 9.6

Nuclear 0 1.5 5.5

•reference, with presumed environmental requirements, resulting frompresent EU regulations

•alternative, with more strict requirements in terms of carbon dioxideemission levels, expected in relation to the new energy policy of EU.

Summary



Summary

The technology foresight study for energy sector was undertaken forthe first time in Poland.

To this time the basic steps of the foresight procedure werefulfilled, which are indispensable for scenarios elaboration.

The experiences will be utilize in European Energy Foresight whichshould be undertaken in short time.



Thank You very much for your

attention

Scenarios of Coal Technology Development –Energy Foresight for Poland by 2030

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