Pakistan LNG Story - Petroleum Institute of Pakistan - Home Presentation.pdf · Pakistan LNG Story...
Transcript of Pakistan LNG Story - Petroleum Institute of Pakistan - Home Presentation.pdf · Pakistan LNG Story...
Presented by:
Sheikh Imran ul Haque
Managing Director and CEO
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited
Pakistan LNG Story
Effective LNG Import Structure by MPNR
PSO
SSGC
SNGPL
LNG Importer
Receiving LNG at terminal Transmission of regasified LNG (RLNG) to SNGPL through swap
Supply RLNG to end consumers
And Why PSO ? GOP assigned the role of importing LNG to PSO owing to its:
• Financial strength
PSO imports around 200 vessels of POL products annually, amounting to
USD 6 bn (USD 8 bn in 2014) with margins supporting trading business risks:
• International Credibility
With oil suppliers which would grandfather with LNG Suppliers (ENI, BP,
Petrochina, Trafigura, Gunvor, Glencore, Shell, GNF)
• Expertise in Financial Management, Skills in Energy Supply Chain
Despite severe constraints, has managed its debt and kept the wheels of
industry operating
Description PMG HSD
OMC Margin 2.35 2.35
Equivalent in USD/MMBTU 0.69 0.62
As %age of cost 5.5% 5.4%
LNG Journey Starts
• Three procurement streams were utilized for import of LNG to Pakistan: • Direct negotiations under Government to Government arrangement; • Spot purchases; • Term procurement for a period of time
• Meetings were held with: • Petronas, Malaysia’s designated entity and • PB Trading Sendirian Berhad, Brunei Darussalam’s designated entity, • Qatar which has liquefaction facilities to produce 77 Mtpa of LNG with
all 14 LNG trains running at full capacity which confirms Qatar as the world’s main LNG supplier with a market share of over 30%.
• PSO and GOP’s international consultants were engaged to develop contracts and provide market intelligence
• ECC vide decision dated 2nd July 2013 authorized Ministry to engage in
negotiations with Qatargas on Government to Government basis for importing
LNG on delivered Ex-ship basis.
• Pakistan State Oil Company Limited (PSOCL) and Qatargas Operating Company
Limited (QOCL) were nominated by respective governments to negotiate the
LNG Sales Purchase Agreement (LNG SPA).
• Resimulations undertaken in Spain and meeting of Port Qasim, Engro & PSO
held in November, 2015 in Doha, Qatar. Qflex can deliver LNG. Port Charges
(USD 660,000 – 809,000) capped Port at USD 320,000
• The pricing and principal commercial terms of the LNG were reviewed and
finalized by the Price Negotiation Committee constituted by the GOP. The
negotiations have taken time to complete and agreed at 13.9% of Brent
G to G
PSO – Qatargas Long term SPA Highlights
Tenure 2016 to December 31,2031
Extendable with mutual consent
Terms Take or Pay
Type Delivered Ex-ship
Volumes 2016 (prorate of 2.25 mtpa)
2017 (3.75mtpa)
Buyer
Seller
Pakistan State Oil Company Limited
Qatar Liquefied Gas Company Limited 2
Price revision After 10 years
Price negotiated by Price Negotiating Committee setup by GOP/ECC
Support PSO and GOP’s international consultants have been engaged in negotiations with Qatargas, the State of Qatar’s designated entity, on the terms of a long term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (LNG SPA) for 15 years, on Government to Government basis.
Current LNG Import and way forward
Government to Government Deal with
Qatargas
Presented to ECC 2 months ago
The LNG Journey Continues
Spot/Multi-Cargo Tender
PSO has issed Spot / Multi cargo tenders since May 2015 and first cargo received in July 2015.
17.80% 16% 18.90% 25.40% 25.10% 33% 29%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Long Term
The Long Term, Spot & Short Term Market Afforded and Opportunity
Nuclear Shutdown
in Japan
Japan`s long term contracts
extended at roughly half of the
volumes
Mild 2013-2014 winter, South
Korea retreats from Spot Market
A number of key factors have contributed to the rapid growth of non long-term trade in recent years including
• The growth in LNG contracts with destination flexibility, mainly from the Atlantic Basin and Qatar, which has
facilitated diversions to higher priced markets.
• The increase in the number of exporters and importers. 26 exporters & 28 importers in 2014 as compared to
6 exporters and 8 importers in 2000.
• Reliance of Japan, South Korea & Taiwan on spot market for sudden changes in demand (Fukushima) due
to lack of domestic production or pipeline imports.
• The large growth in the LNG fleet, which has allowed the industry to sustain the long-haul parts of the spot
market (chiefly the trade from the Atlantic to the Pacific).
Over USD 400m Procurement Has Ensured Supply Chain Cargo Berthing at Quantity Quantity Quantity FOB/DES
PQA [m3] [M Tonnes] [MMBTU] $ / MMBTU
1 26-Mar-15 145,545 65,297 3,419,330.00 8.6527
2 24-Apr-15 144,219 63,354 3,294,832.00 7.8900 3 11-May-15 143,959 63,310 3,293,143.00 7.8800 4 28-May-15 143,959 63,246 3,290,990.00 7.9000
5 15-Jun-15 147,653 63,404 3,297,446.00 7.8800
6 9-Jul-15 136,994 60,188 3,133,192.00 8.0900 7 17-Jul-15 125,010 56,146 2,904,160.00 8.2321 8 28-Jul-15 131,455 58,779 3,041,320.00 8.5754
9 28-Aug-15 134,713 60,738 3,139,390.00 7.6142
10 10-Sep-15 142,001 64,170 3,305,580.00 8.7758
11 20-Sep-15 131,385 57,604 2,999,340.00 6.6757 12 6-Oct-15 142,951 60,345 3,155,050.00 7.6208 13 16-Oct-15 138,658 58,415 3,057,050.00 8.1275 14 27-Oct-15 130,058 57,008 2,966,850.00 6.0988 15 15-Nov-15 143,013 60,138 3,147,590.00 7.8132
16 05-Dec-15 139,180 62,625 3,241,970.00 7.5057
17 16-Dec-15 140,597 61,677 3,210,010.00 7.4622
Total 2,361,350 1,036,446 53,897,243.00 7.8114
The End Journey
Term Tender Two term tenders issued to cover the deficit with Qgas and bring in increased volumes required
LNG Players Participated in PSO’s Tenders
1. GUNVOR
2. BP SINGAPORE
3. TRAFIGURA
4. PETRO CHINA
5. SHELL
6. GAS NATURAL
7. ENI SPA
8. EDF
9. GLENCORE
10. MARUBENI
11. VITOL
12. EXCELERATE
But …..Supply Chain Needed to be Maintained
Government to Government Deal with
Qatargas
Spot/Multi-Cargo Tender
Term Tender
Deal in ECC approval process
PSO had to issue Spot / Multi cargo tenders for 1Q2016
Two term tenders issued to cover the deficit with QGas already underway
Supply Chain Being Maintained
Cargo Berthing Schedule % of Process Remarks
at PQA Brent
1 17-19 Jan -16 17.9034 Spot Tender - 15 awarded
2 9-11 Feb -16 18.9349 Spot Tender - 15 awarded
3 23-25 Feb -16 18.0850 Spot Tender - 15 awarded
4 9-11 Mar -16 13.3700 Term Tender -13 awarded
Scenario 1. Based on Q Gas response and ECC approval 1/2 cargoes in Jan and Feb from Q Gas 2/3 cargoes per month from QGas starting March 1 cargo per month from Gunvor starting March 2 In case of no approval Term Tender for 2 additional cargoes per month starting March 1 cargo per month from Gunvor starting March 1 cargo per month from Shell starting March
Imported Gas Price at Brent of USD 50 per barrel
Offers in the Past Gas
Price
mmbtu
Quantity
Bscfd
Total
Investment
US$
5 year contract
Qgas current offer
Scrapped tender
Qgas earlier Offer
Maashal offer
13.37% of Brent
13.9% of Brent
83.5% or 14.4% of Brent
89.9% or 14.9% of Brent
91.0% or 15.2% of Brent
$6.69
$6.95
$7.20
$7.45
$7.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.13b
0.20b
Current Status
Government to Government Deal with
Qatargas
Spot/Multi-Cargo Tender
Term Tender
Under ECC approval process and Qgas Visited
PSO has issed Spot / Multi cargo tenders since May 2015 and first cargo received in July 2015.
1) Term Tender # 13 has been awarded to Gunvor
2) Shell is the lowest bidder in Term Tender # 14 and bid valid till 15-01-2016
• Low Margins
• Infrastructure
• Circular Debt
• Volumes for 2nd Terminal
Challenges
- 18 -
As per ECC Decision dated June 6, 2015, RLNG pricing
components for PSO include:
i. LNG DES/ FoB price (including freight)
ii. Other import related actual costs
iii. PSO margin upto 4 percent of LNG DES Price, subject to
review after 3 months by an Inter-Ministerial Committee
RLNG Pricing Guidelines
• Note the DES price of September 2015 has been fixed by OGRA for all cargoes
that fall in the preceding period- March to September 2015
RLNG Price
Cost Components Provisional RLNG Price per OGRA
Delivered Ex-Ship Price (DES price) Actual
PSO Margin Restricted to 1.82% of DES
Insurance Premium Actual
Wharfage Actual
Load Port Surveyor Charges Actual
Discharge Port Surveyor Charges Actual
Stamp Duty Actual
Infrastructure Cess Disallowed
Exchange Loss/Gain Actual
Excise Duty Actual
Terminal Charges Fixed at $ 0.66/MMBTU
SSGC & SNGPL Cost of Service Disallowed
SSGC & SNGPL Admin Margin Disallowed
Retainage Restricted to 0.75% of total LNG cost
Transmission Losses 0.5% of DES price
- 20 -
Subsequent to the ECC Decision, OGRA issued its Provisional Price
Determination on October 7, 2015 wherein:
PSO’s margin was reduced from 4.0% to 1.82% (Est. Loss to PSO: Rs. 750
mn) *
Infrastructure Cess paid by PSO to Sindh Government was disallowed
(Est. Loss to PSO: Rs. 342 mn)*
Lower Sep 2015 price made applicable to all previous cargoes from April to
August 2015 (Est. Loss to PSO Rs. 749 mn)*
PSO filed a petition for review of the above determination on December 7,
2015
First session of Public Hearing conducted by OGRA in Karachi on
December 28, 2015. Next session held in Lahore on January 4, 2016
OGRA Price Determination
* Note: Amounts are based on cargoes imported till December 2015
- 21 -
Return to Shareholders
HSD
(Rs. Per Ltr)
PMG
(Rs. Per Ltr)
HSFO-IMPORTED
(Rs. Per MT)
Cost 35.41 43.03 17,371
Margin 2.35 2.35 695
6.64% 5.46% 4.00%
Distribution & Marketing -1.49% -1.49% -1.49%
Administrative -0.27% -0.27% -0.27%
Infrastructure cost -0.43% -0.43% -0.43%
Subtotal Margin 4.44% 3.27% 1.81%
Taxation -1.73% -1.27% -0.71%
Return to Shareholder 2.71% 1.99% 1.10%
Average 1.94%
Net return to shareholders imbedded in other products is
around 1.94% of import cost
- 22 -
Return to shareholders
-
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cir
cula
re D
eb
t (R
s. in
bill
ion
)
Div
ide
n p
er
shar
e
Dividend per share Circular Debt
• Due to PSO’s support to power sector, dividend payment to its
shareholder have declined from Rs. 34 to Rs. 10 per share
• LNG project carries significant risk and any unforeseen event
might turn PSO into a loss making company
• Therefore, fair return to shareholders (includes GoP) to ensure
long term sustainability toGOP’s Strategic Company
- 23 -
Business Risk Consideration
Following PSO exposures have not been considered:
I. Take or Pay due to Term LNG SPAs
II. Delay in Payments
III. IPP Capacity Charges Payment
IV. Risk of regulatory disputes
V. Guarantees for Term LNG imports (SBLC Arrangement)
VI. Demurrages
One major risk event can wipe off PSO’s return. The allowed margin of 0.5% fails to provide an adequate return to PSO for the business risks. The will also impact our other Businesses as LNG business will become 37% of PSO’s total business and
is already consuming significant time of key management personnel and
support departments
Way forward
Long Term Deal
Spot/Multi-Cargo Tender
Term Tender for LNG Supplies
Retain flexibility
Be part of the portfolio
Government to Government Initiate
with Qatargas, Petronas, Malaysia, PB
Trading Sendirian Berhad, Brunei,
Angola LNG and CNOOC
Thank You
OGRA Determined
Margin
ECC Approved
Margin
Margin 1.82 4.00
Tax Amount at import 1.32 1.32
Net Margin 0.50 2.68
Tax as a % age of margin 72.5% 33%
Tax Impact on Margin Exemption on Withholding Tax on LNG Import withdrawn through Finance
Act 2015. Accordingly 1% withholding tax on the import value increased by
Custom duty , sales tax and federal excise is applicable on LNG import
As a result, the Tax on LNG Business is more viz a viz the normal
corporate tax rate as depicted below:
Normal Corporate tax rate is around 40%
- 27 -
Margins in Other Sectors
Sector Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin
Cement 38.6% 38.6% 22.7%
Automobile 15.7% 13.4% 8.7%
E&P 49.4% 55.1% 35.5%
Power 23.8% 17.9% 10.7%
Fertilizer 34.3% 29.3% 11.1%
Data compiled based on annual reports.
- 28 -
LNG Business Risks
Take or Pay and IPP Capacity Charge Liability of over Rs 7bn
In the LNG market, supply contracts are structured on ‘Take or Pay’
basis
PSO is liable for full cargo value (approx USD 21-24 mn) to the
supplier(s) if PSO is unable to take delivery
Estimated financial impact of failure to take delivery of even a single
cargo is Rs. 2.2- 2.5 bn
SNGPL under Tripartite Agreement may order upto 4.5 mtpa of LNG
for a term of upto 30 years and PSO is required to supply/procure
these volumes
In case PSO is unable to supply the required volumes:
It is liable to pay capacity charges to IPPs
Capacity payment for a single month is estimated at Rs. 6 bn
This is 4 times the margin of both the 5 year term contracts that
PSO has bid recently
- 29 -
LNG Business Risks
Risk of Delayed Payments & Shortfall in SBLC Arrangement
Average receivable of Rs. 9 bn during the last 9 months
PSO has a loss in its LNG business due to delay in payments
SNGPL/IPPs
At full capacity the amount is expected to increase to Rs 36bn at current
low brent price (2 month cargoes)
Interest liability is estimated at around Rs 2.1 bn p.a
For 600 mmcfd of RLNG, PSO has to open Standby Letter of Credit
(SBLC) worth USD 150 mn for the LNG suppliers
SNGPL SBLC in favor of PSO is renewable and replenish able only
when the IPPs’ SBLC(s) in favor of SNGPL are renewed and
or/replenished
Resultantly the imbalance in credit support mechanism as per LNG
Supply Agreements vs against credit support mechanism in the
Tripartite Agreement is to be managed by PSO
Moreover, the opportunity cost is significant for PSO and it could obtain
a higher USD return by investing in business that yield better returns
- 30 -
Furnace Oil & LNG
Risks in LNG are high because of the uniqueness of the LNG supply chain
Yet the return on LNG is about one-fourth of FO
PSO will bleed unless adequate margins are not provided
Description FO LNG
PSO Annual Import USD 1.8 bn USD 1.7 bn
IPP Capacity Payment
Risk Yes Higher
Financial Risk Yes Higher
Credit Risk Yes Higher
Margin 3.50 1.82
Income Tax 1.36 1.32
Gross Margin 2.14 0.50
Margin Determination LNG as per OGRA Other Business LNG proposed
Sales 159,300 913,094 159,300
Gross Margin 2,843 31,448 7,749
Gross Margin % 1.82% 3.44% 4.96%
Operating Cost (351) (14,932) (351)
Take or pay (1,593) - (1,593)
Cost of Working Capital (1,062) - (1,062)
Capacity charge to IPP (730) - (730)
Tax Expense (2,062) (5,097) (2,062)
(5,798) (20,029) (5,798)
Net Margin (2,955) 11,419 1,951
Margin % -1.85% 1.25% 1.25%
……..Rs. In mn……..
- 32 -
PSO has unique skills to manage multi billion dollar supply chain
LNG project requires highly sophisticated treasury and buying
department with good reputation in local and international
banking sector
LNG business will become 37% of PSO’s total business and is
already consuming significant time of key management personnel
and support departments
Therefore, PSO’s total common administrative expenses (Other
than marketing and operations) will be allocated to LNG business
PSO is required to operate commercially and its commercial
margin ranges between 3.5% to 5.5%
Private sector customer is already paying 4% on LNG and is not
opting direct imports/ sourcing through other Companies.
Margins Justification
- 33 -
Components of Margins
Administrative Expenses 0.68%
Distribution Cost 0.00%
Marketing Cost 0.00%
Infrastructure Cost 0.00%
Working Capital Cost (Rs. 29
Billion)
2.40%
Taxation 1.32%
Insurance of risk elements 0.33%
Return to Share holders 1.94%
Total Margin 6.67%
- 34 -
LNG Expenses
Amount
Rs. in million
Total PSOs’ Operating Expense 10,668
Less: Distribution and Marketing
Expenses
8,296
Administrative Expenses (Common
Expenses)
2,372
Share of LNG business 37%
Allocation of Common Expenses 879
Direct LNG related expenses 110
Total LNG related costs-Annual 989
Estimated DES Cost-Annual 145,152
Cost as %age of DES 0.68%
- 35 -
Working Capital Cost
Annual imports Cost (Rs. In million) 145,152
GST rate 20%
GST amount 29,030
Annual import Cost with GST 174,182
Delay in receipts 60.00 Day
Average receivables 29,030.40
Cost of Fund 12%
Cost of Fund 3,483.65
Working Capital Cost as %age of DES 2.4%
- 36 -
Return on Businesses
Sector Internal Rate of
Return Risk Free Rate Risk Premium
All KSE Companies * 18.00% 10.75% 7.25%
Power Generation 17.00% 10.75% 6.25%
Gas Utilities 17.00% 10.75% 6.25%
Solar 17.00% 10.75% 6.25%
Local Coal 26.50% 10.75% 15.75%
Imported Coal 24.50% 10.75% 13.75%
Pipeline Infrastructure 18.00% 10.75% 7.25%
LNG business (PSO) - - -2.52%
LNG is being imported mainly for the Power Sector. Average return to other suppliers in this sector is more than 17% excluding any expenses
* Source: i) Pakistan & gulf Economist 17.11.2014 Issue Ii) State Bank of Pakistan Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department
* Note the DES price of September 2015 has been fixed by OGRA for all cargoes that fall in the preceding period of March to September 2015
RLNG Price
Cost Components Provisional RLNG Price per OGRA RECOMMENDATION
Delivered Ex-Ship Price (DES price) Actual Allow at actual from March 2015
PSO Margin Restricted to 1.82% of DES
Allow as Proposed
Insurance Premium Actual Same
Wharfage Actual Same
Load Port Surveyor Charges Actual Same
Discharge Port Surveyor Charges Actual Same
Stamp Duty Actual Same
Infrastructure Cess Disallowed Allow at actual
Exchange Loss/Gain Actual Same
Excise Duty Actual Same
Terminal Charges Fixed at $ 0.66/MMBTU
Allow as per actual
SSGC & SNGPL Cost of Service Disallowed Allow
SSGC & SNGPL Admin Margin Disallowed Allow
Retainage Restricted to 0.75% of total LNG cost Allow as per actual
Transmission Losses 0.5% of DES price Same
- 38 -
Recommendations
Margin be enhanced to gross margin of 6.84%
which will be 1.94% for shareholders