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Populat ion and Family Planning in theEconomic Development of RhodesiaD. ClarkeDepartment of Econom ics, U niversity of Rhodesia, Salisbury.

The effects of population growth on economic1 there are basically two camps. First-

2 The second school, en-t independently of the social order. Th e

3The Commission's Report cited six 'direct diffi-

Finally, severe urban conditions result and short-ages of social products are the outcome.4 Thusthe Commission's major recommendation is that,'Developing countries should identify their popu-lation problem if they have not already done so,recognize the relevance of population growth totheir social and economic planning, and adoptappropriate programs.'5This paper is an attempt to place the populationproblem of Rhodesia in perspective in the light ofthis clearly reasoned advice. The questions to beanswered are whether the 'direct difficulties' canbe identified and their severity calculated, whetherpresent population policy is the right solution andwhat alternatives there are.

REGIONAL CONTEXTThe annual rate of growth of the world popu-lation between 1963 and 1968 is put at 1,9 per centbut for Continental Africa it is 2,4 per cent, thatis about 26 per cent above the world average; andfor 1970-1980 it will be considerably greater.6Birth rates throughout the continent are still highand the relatively close movement of falling birthrates behind falling death rates that characterisedthe development of Western European countriesin the nineteenth century cannot be expected tooccur in Africa in the immediate future. Broadaggregates do, however, tend to obscure wide vari-ances in individual countries. A rudimentarystatistical analysis of selected African countries,south of the Sahara, together with the extent oftheir family planning programmes, portrays thebare outlines of the current situation.7

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Table IP O P U L A T I O N A N D F A M I L Y P L A N N I N G I N S EL E C T E D C O U N T R I E S I N S U B -S A H A R A N A F R I C A

CountrySouth AfricaRhodesiaMozambiqueZambiaMalawiLesothoBotswanaS.W.A.AngolaTanzaniaCongo (Dem. Rep.)Congo (Brazz.)

Populations196819 263 000

5 020 0007 237 0004 079 0004 324 0001 018 000600 000611 0005 360 00012 578 00016 648 000912 000

Average AnnualPercentage Growth1963-672,43,41,23,12,52,93.01,81,42,92 21,4

Deathsper 1 0001967

1419,623252024

Extent of Family PlanningExists: limited supportExists: voluntary associationNo organized activityGovernment neutral and passiveGovernment host i leGovernment lukewarmGovernment committed in principleNo organized activityNo organized activityGovernment committedNo organized activityNo organized activity

Source: I N T E R N A T I O N A L P L A N N E D P A R E N T H O O D F E D E R A T I O N 1969 Fam ily Planning on Five Continents,London, pp. 3-9. All figures are national figures.

It does seem, therefore, to be the relativelymore economically advanced states that havefamily planning programmes, though the scope ofmany of these leaves much to be desired. The firstGovernment sponsored programme was institutedin Kenya in 1965, but despite this breakthrough,official backing for family planning in mostcountries of the Southern Continent has not beeneasily obtained.An evaluation of the causal factors responsiblefor the low rates of natural increase in manyAfrican countries shows clearly that the conditionis the result of high death rates, not low birthrates, and as a consequence the real populationexplosion is yet to be experienced. In otherAfrican countries death rates per thousand areeven higher than those in Table I; 8 and whenmodern medical science reaches these backwardareas and brings down mortality levels nearer tothose of advanced countries, then there can be

but one unavoidable consequence: continued up-ward trends in population growth throughout thecontinent.9THE RHODESIAN PROBLEMThe Rhodesian economy exhibits virtually allthe major characteristics of dualism that are sowell known in the literature on economic develop-ment;10 and nearly all available economic data,quantitative or qualitative, illustrates this dualism,especially in the sphere of population.

The population problem is found principally inthe African community, which constitutes 95 percent of the total population; but it must not be

inferred that policy should neglect the European,Asian and Coloured communities11 for there is afrequent assertion by white Rhodesians that theexpansion of the European population by an in-crease in the birth rate would be economicallyadvantageous to the whole community. Yet whenexamined on economic grounds this suppositionis seen to be extremely weak. If the 'inherited'abilities of man are a common factor, unalterablein the short run, and for all practical purposes aconstant, then any 'acquired' abilities that arelikely to influence the quality of the 'humancapital' dement of the total wealth component,will be functionally dependent upon the existenceand distribution of factors such as education, pub-lic health, nutritional intake, housing and socialwelfare.On this basis Rhodesia must be regarded asbeing adequately endowed, in both stock andflow relationships, with the quantitative elementsof human resources required for economic growth.Lacking in abundance is the present stock andfuture flow of the qualitative aspects of 'humancapital'.12 Any measure designed to increase(European) birth rates13 in this situation wouldexert additional pressure on already scarce invest-ment resources and thereby increase the percapita resource contribution that would have tobe made in non-productive 'demographic invest-ments'. In real terms there is no demographicproblem amongst the European population group.The rate of natural increase has declined sharplysince 1954 when it was 2,0 per cent per annumand in 1968 stood close to levels experienced in

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at 1,0 per cent50 per cent decline in the rate ofin a period of fifteen years ise to a fall in the birth rate from 27 per 1 0001954 to 16 in 1968, while death rates havetheperiod

at 6-7 per 1 000. Because of the small absolutesize of the European, Asian and Coloured popu-lation groups1* they will bedisregarded for the restof this paper. Recorded changes in the Africanpopulation are reflected in the summary ofchanges in rates of growth as shown in Table II.

Year

Table URATE OF GROWTH OF THE RHOD ESIAN AFRICAN POPULATIONPercentage changePercentage change in birth in death raterate between dates of between dates ofBirths per I 000 estimation Deaths per I 000 estimation

Natural increaseper cent perannum194819541962

46,244,848,0

3,03-7,14

18,114,414,0 - 20,40- 2,772,813,043,40

(a ) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1951 Report on the Demographic Sample Survey of the African Population of South-ern Rhodesia. Salisbury, Central African Statistical Office, f. 8, Table IV.(b) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1959 The 1953-1955 Demographic Sample Survey of the Indigenous African Populationof Southern Rhodesia. Salisbury, Central African Statistical Office, p. 8, Table 4.(c) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962 Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia.Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 8.the comprehensive analysis of the 1969has not yet been released it appears thatof natural increase of the Africanis 3,6 per cent..15 Consequently, theof growth of Rhodesia's African population41 per cent above the African

and 100 per cent above theAt this rate of increase, the African13,6million atof the century and some 19 million by2010 (seeTable VIT).Net increases and aggregates alone conceal

the economic problem orits seriousness: age structure, fertilityand net reproductive rates, populationsex balance,andAn outline survey of nationalper capita in Table III depicts the effecton the long-term trend over

The inference from Table III is that there hasa decline in the average standard of living1959. In practice the real in-of different population groups is influencedas initial income distribu-of population increase andof economic growth. At this juncturebe useful to dis-aggregate the economicthe 'high in-

Table IIIRHODESIAN NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA19594968 (Rh. S)

G.D.P. G.N.I. G.N.I.(Factor Cost) Constant ConstantYear Current Prices 1954Prices 1965Prices1959196019611962196319641965196619671968

151,4155,4159,0156,4156,6160,2167.2158,0164,8167,0

132,2133,6133.6128/t125,4125,0129,0

172,8159,8162,8161.0

Source: RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balanceof Payments of Rhodesia 1968. Salisbury, Central Statis-tical Office, p. 2, Table 3.come' European, Asian and Coloured community,mainly urban in character, and exclusively orient-ated towards the modern sector of the economy,16the 'medium income' African population in wageemployment in the Money Economy, and the 'Jowincome' rural based African population in theTribal Trust Lands and Purchase Areas who com-prise the Indigenous Economy17 or African RuralHousehold sector. An examination in Table IV ofthe past record of employment creation in the'high' and 'medium' income groups indicates thestructural nature of the problems engendered byrapid population growth and the inability of theMoney Economy to effect meaningful economicadvance in theperiod 1956-1968.

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Table IVRHODESIAN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 1956-1968

Year

19561960196419681969

Africans in WageNumbers(

Total602640627663697

000)Total lessagriculture

374400352407429

EmploymentPercentAfrican ,

Total18,817,715,314,114,4

of TotalPopulationTotal lessagriculture

11,411,18,68,78, 9

European, Asian and ColouredEmploymentNumbers{'000)

72,689,487,195,699,5

Percent ofTotal EuropeanPopulation

37,638,138,038,939,1

Total[WageEmploymentNumbers

(000)

674,6729,4714,1758,6796,5

Percent ofTotalPopulation

19,9618,9916,4515,3615,65

Source: Calculated from RHODESIA 1970 Mon thly Digest of Statistics. June. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office.Thus it can be seen how for the African popu-lation (comprising 89 per cent of the economicallyactive labour force in the Money Economy)employment opportunities have declined relativeto population size. From 1954 to 1968 the averageannual rate of growth of African employment was1,2 per cent whereas for the European, Asian andColoured group the average annual rate (1954-1965) was 2,83 per cent,18 Despite the higher rateof growth of the non-African labour force thepercentage of the total population in wage employ-ment declined from 19,96 per cent to 15.65 percent between 1956 and 1969.The implications of these trends for levels ofunemployment can be seen to have their primaryimpact on the 'medium income' African sector ofthe Money Economy and in the African RuralHousehold sector. An estimate of the incidence ofincreasing unemployment or low productivityemployment'0 can be obtained by calculating thenumber of African adult males between the agesof 15 and 59 years who do not find gainfulemployment in the wage sector and by comparingthis result with the total number of African adultmales (who may be regarded as the potentiallyemployable labour force) either in the Money-Economy or in the Indigenous System. Table Villustrates the position as it has developed from1956 to 1968.Thus, while the level of employment reacts to thefortunes of the agricultural sector, to changingcapital-labour ratios in the major economicsectors, and to changes in wage rates, the growthof the number of African adult males eligible forwage employment does not show the same elasti-city of adjustment. Thus there has been a sharp

increase in the proportion of adult African maleswho are not economically active in the MoneyEconomy. The inference is that either these per-sons are overtly unemployed in the MoneyEconomy, or are translocated to the Rural House-hold sector, which has for some time been actingas an 'accommodation mechanism'20 in absorbingincreasing numbers of persons by increasing levelsof underemployment. While it is almost certainthat there is some direct unemployment in theMoney Economy it is likely that a large numberof dislocated labourers and their dependents seekTable VAFRICAN ADULT MALE POPULATIONOF RHODESIA PercentageAged in WageIn Employment 15-19 Years EmploymentYear ('000) (a) (b)

1956196019641968602,0640,0627,0663,0

772 299873 891991 0311 135 44977,9573,2463,0458,40

Source: Calculated from RHODESIA 1970 Monthly DigestStatistics. June. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office;RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia. SalisburyCentral Statistical Office, p. 18.Note (a) The 1962 census estimates that 46,0 per cent ofthe African population are between the ages of15-59 years and of these 52,65 per cent aremales. It has, therefore, been assumed th at 24,21per cent of the total African population areadult males between the ages of 5-59.Note (b) A strict estimate would reduce the total labourforce by the percentage of females included inits total num ber. Similarly an accu rate estimateof labour supply would need to include those African females seeking employ ment. Theserefinements have not been made in order tosimplify the analysis.

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sources: 'Production for own Consumption', 'In-come from Sales' and 'Remittances from theMoney Economy', Between 1960 and 1968 therehas been little evidence of rising income levels iothe Rural Household sector.Table VI

T H E A F R I C A N R U R A L H O U S E H O L D S E C T O RRh. $ : Current Prices

Year196019611962196319641965196619671968

FromSales( a )4,54,03,83,43,43,74,24,42,8

Income (Millions)Productionfor ownConsumption( b )

16,319,220.521,824,222,625,430,029,7

Total( c )20,823,224.325,227,826.329,634,432.5

Population(000)

1 9832 1482 3102 4102 5002 6002 7202 8702 960

( a )2,2691.8621,6451.4101,3601,4231,5441,5330,945

Income per Capita

( b )8,2198.9388.8749,0459,6808.6929.33810.45210.033

( c )10,48910.80110,51910.45611,12010,11510.88211,98610,979

RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balance of Paym ents of Rho desia 196 8. Salisbury, Central StatisticalOffice, p. 13, Table 24.Admittedly certain conceptual and methodo-21 can be made of estimates of

22 the small

What has not been included in the estimates in

20 likely that rural

unemployment. For these reasons considerablygreater attention should be given in developmentpolicy to the problems of African agriculture.This sector must, in the context of Rhodesia'sdual economy, be regarded 'as the structural ba.seupon which the economic system rests and shouldtherefore be a fundamental priority in any plan-ning or investment decisions.So far the focus has been on the record of thelast ten to fifteen years. When consideration isgiven to future trends in population and employ-ment there is further room for concern. Table VIIgives estimates of population growth for theAfrican community over the next 30 years assum-ing that the current rate of natural increase of3,4 per cent is maintained and that net migrationequals zero. The number of African adult malesis then calculated using a constant fraction of24 per 100 persons as an estimate of this popula-tion group (see Table V). Finally, the modelincludes projections of the number of Africans inwage employment under three arbitrarily assumedrates of increase in employment. These figures arethen related to the size of the African adult malegroup between the ages of 15 and 59 years toestimate the percentage of adult males who willfind wage employment at different intervals oftime:

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Table VIIRH O D E S I A N A F RI CA N P O P U L A T I O N A N D E M P L O Y M E N T P RO J E CT I O N S

Year30th June1969197019751980198519902000

AfricanPopulation( '000)4 8405 0045 8996 9878 2569 75713 620

AdultMales15-59Years( '000)1 1621 2011 4161 6771 9812 3423 269

No .('000)697,0705,0747.0789,0830,0872,0956,0

1,2% % AdultMalesEmployed59,958,752.747,041,937.229,3

No.('000)697,0711,0780,0850,0920,0990,01 130,0

2,0% c/c. AdultMalesEmployed59.959,255,250,646,442,334,5

No.('000)697.0721,0843,0965.01 081,01 210,01 453,0

3,5%.% AdultMalesEmployee59,960,159.757,554,951,744,4

Highlighted by the model is the almost certain growth of population at 3,5 per cent, a deterior-ation in employment conditions will still not beavoided. While the model clearly reflects the needfor an effective and conscious employment policy,consideration should be given to the effects of adecline in the rate of population increase and ananalysis of the extent to which such a measurewould ameliorate the critical nature of currenttrends. Table VIII attempts to show how a reduc-tion in the natural rate of increase of 0,05 percent per annum, starting in 1970, would influenceemployment conditions:Table VIIIRH O D E S I A N A F R I CA N P O P U L A T I O N A N D E M P L O Y M E N T P RO J E CT I O N S A T A S S U M E D RA T E S O FG R O W T H Employment Projectionsat Assumed Annual Average Rates

Year197019751980198519902000

Projected( '000)5 0045 8726 8087 7978 82510 723

Natural Increaseper cent3.403,152,902,652,401,90

Adult Males*15-59 years( '000)1 2011 4091 6341 8712 1252 575

1,2%Percent

58,753,048,344,341,037,1

2,0%of Adult Males in

59.255,352,049.246,543,9

3,5%Employment

60.059.859.158,156,956,4

* Assumed as a constant fraction of 24 per 100 persons.Even with this rapid decline in the rate of

1954-68 rate of growth in employment of 1.2 percent per annum will not be sufficient to avert areduction in the percentage of adult males whowill obtain wage employment. In order to experi-ence only a small deterioration, in the percentageof adult males in employment from 60 per centin 1970 to 56,4 per cent in 2000, African wageemployment would have to increase at an annualaverage rate of 3,5 per cent. Only by 1990 wouldRhodesia reach a rate of natural increase com-

parable to the present African continental averageand ten more years would pass before the rateof population growth had reached a level close tothe present world average. To reach the equival-ent levels presently experienced in advanced industrialized countries of 0,9 per cent per annumthe assumed rate of reduction would have tocontinue until the year 2020.There are, however, several reasons forconcluding that this assumed decline in thenatural rate of increase is probably unattainablein the next thirty years. Firstly, Rhodesia has no 16

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now standing at 48 per 1 000. Assumingthe death rate remains at 14 per 1 000, ation in the birth rate to 33,0 per 1 000.

23 such

ore elusive the final solution.Attention has been centred on the consequences

increased by 990 000, which means that

24 The problems of education25 dramatize26 in the African

from other countries are neither assured27 Income distribution, too, shows

It is against this background that the 'directdifficulties' facing Rhodesia are identifiable andupon which the qualitative deficiencies of lifetake on their seemingly intractable significance.Barring a Malthusian check Rhodesia faces anumber of alternatives: (a) to effect a rate ofeconomic development that exceeds the rate ofgrowth of population; (b) to alter the factorendowment ratios by a migration policy; (c) toadopt a population policy aimed at a reductionin the rate of natural increase, or (d) a combina-tion of the aforementioned possibilities. This papercontends that alternative (c) would provide theoptimum choice.In respect of alternative (a) the main lines ofa strategy for development would need to achieveprovision for the maximum rate of growth inAfrican employment in the Money Economy,maximum monetization of the African RuralHousehold sector, and a reversal in the trendstowards inequalitarian distribution of income.Alternative (b), the migration solution, has anumber of constraints. Firstly, the artificial trans-ference of a section of the population presupposesthat there exists some 'zone of relief to go to,and on a regional basis in itself it cures nothing.Consequently, population re-distribution withinRhodesia can at best be a short-run pailliative.Although economic gains can be made by spatialallocation policies,28 these can never provide anadequate prescription for the problem of excesspopulation growth.

A second form of partial solution often mootedis the repatriation of the estimated 200 000 foreignAfrican employees and their dependents29 in orderto provide extra employment opportunities forthe indigenous African community; a number ofeconomic, social and administrative objectionshowever impair the possibility of such a policybeing made effective within a short space oftime.30 What is possible is a reduction in the netinflow of foreign Africans seeking employmentin Rhodesia in categories of work for which sup-plies of local labour are available. Immigrationdata show that this has been taking place since1955.31The third type of migration solution that hasreceived attention is the promotion of Europeanimmigration. Although it has always been a policyof Rhodesian governments, the recent formulationof immigration policy as an economic solution tothe population problem, principally by the SadieReport,32 requires qualifications to correct thepopular myth that European immigration in all

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cases will be economically beneficial for thecreation of employment opportunit ies for theAfrican population. It is sufficient to note thatfor the pu rpo ses of this pap er an inflow of skilledpersonnel may well be a valuable gain for anunderdeveloped country, but as a solution to thepopulation problem it can only be regarded aspartial and unreliable. A selective immigrationpolicy designed to promote an inflow of HighLevel Manpower, however desirable i t may be initself, fails to attack the causes of excess popula-t ion growth. In fact , migration solutions of al ltypes avoid the root of the demographic issue.

W ha t is app arent from the argu m ent thus faris that no rapid improvement in the 'quali ty oflife', as expressed in terms of the six 'direct diffi-cult ies ' l is ted by the Pearson Commission, isattainable without a solution to the quanti tat iveside of the population problem. Thus alternative(c) provides the basis upon which economicdevelopment in Rhodesia must rest . I t should beregarded as a necessary, but not sufficient, con-dit ion for economic progress without which theremoval of economic dualism will be virtuallyimpossible. A population policy should now beconsidered.33 Before turning to the difficultiescurrently facing the implementation of such apolicy, consider the extent of family planning inRhodes ia today.

F A M I L Y P L A N N I N G I N R H O D E S IAIt was only in 1957 that the Family PlanningAssocia t ion (F PA ) was formed as a voluntaryorganization and began operations by openingup a clinic for Europeans in Salisbury. 34 The to ta lincome of the FPA at that s tage was 205 and inthe last thirteen years i t has become the mosteffective agency for family planning in thecountry . Though no accura te da ta a re ava i lable ,the following is an estimated breakdown of thework of the major agencies in Rhodesia at thepresent t ime:

Table IXFAMILY PLANNING ACTIVITY IN RHODESIA1969Agency Educational MedicalF.P.A.MissionsGovernmentLocal Authorities

95%5%

25 %25 %40%10%Because the returns of such expenditure and effortare 'social benefits ' family planning cannot beeconomic to pr iva te or even voluntary concerns .Its provision, therefore, remains a social responsi-

bility. Analysing the financial statements of theFPA, as it is the dominant agency in this field, 36i t is apparent from the sources37 from wh ich aid has been for thcoming tha t Government supporthas been sporadic, irregular and alarmingly latecompared wi th the known changes in popula t ionthat have taken place in the last twenty-twoyears . Of the total funds available from 1957/8-1968/9, som e 77 261, appro xim ately 57 per cent,were derived from public sector sources a nd 43 per cent f rom pr iva te donors . The complacencyof Government is brought out by the fact thatsome 88 per cent of its total donations of 39 123over the period have been in the last two years .3 8The only redeeming feature of the public sectorrecord is in fact that this is now a permanentcommi tmen t ;3 9 and fo r tuna te ly Gove rnment ' s own .efforts are being extended, in the medical field atleast.

L I M I T A T I O N SThe FPA's major task l ies in i ts educativefunction, but this valuable groundwork is beingjeopardised by the Assodat ion ' s increas ing burdenin the medical field.40 The shortage of staff and

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m e idea of the difficulties can be gauged fromre abo ut family planning, of which he went

42 'Five of the families I visited had six43e returned the papers I gave them, saying "We41 'After 1 had

45 'Some people complained that16 'One of the order-

47 'By

48 'The Prime

49 'One woman stood up and said most50

Not all the problems are social, educational and

51 It would be the

or even the long run. Nothing short of a Mal-thusian check, or major disaster, could inflict suchdamage. AM th at family planning could hope toachieve is a reduction in the rate of natural in-crease, say from 3,4 to 2 per cent per annum. Evenwith the present size of the African populationthis would reduce the annual population growthto about 97 000 and because such a large dropin the rate of natural increase could not possiblybe achieved overnight (it is likely to take at leastthirty years) by the time it is achieved the popu-lation size would be double its present dimensions(see Table VIII).Even if ethical, social and political difficultieswere removed there still exists the problem ofcommunication. Language barriers and literacylevels, though impeding progress, are surmount-able, given forethought and backing. Mass mediacommunication was successful in Japan, but inRhodesia how many people listen to the radio,possess or watch television, or read a regularnewspaper? All these problems mentioned abovecannot be overcome without substantial aid andco-operation. The mechanics of administrationare not as important as the dire need to gaingenuine national commitment.52 A national familyplanning structure, adequately financed and staff-ed, providing a comprehensive educational andmedical programme designed for Rhodesian con-ditions is needed, the responsibility for which liessquarely in the public, not the private domain.

RESULTSWhere the FPA have been operative there is anincreasing awareness, interest and acceptance offamily planning amongst both urban and ruralAfricans. For 1968-69 the total attendance atclinics has increased 80 per cent over the previousyear and the number of persons reached byeducational film units has doubled from 26 472to 52 633 in the same period.53 Considering thatthe FPA handles about 95 per cent of theeducational work in the country, this effort stillmeans that only about 2.5 per cent of the 'target'has been reached by this method.54 Have theother 97,5 per cent been reached through theliterature campaign, household visits and publictalks that constitute the rest of the educationalprogramme? This is highly unlikely, as anexamination of field-workers' activities indicatesthat in January -June 1969 some 16 496 homeswere visited only, 11 148 of which were in ruralareas.55 Urban dwellers tend to be more receptiveto the concept and the degree of acceptance offamily planning tends to be reflated to the level of

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education. But of course the FPA data has limita-tions and although greater research is needed andwould assist in planning, such a 'luxury' thoughtoo a 'necessity', paradox ically cannot toe financ edout of the limited financial and human resourcesat the disposal of the Association. The size of thetask has highlighted the necessity for direct actionand relegated data collection to a secondary role,but an analysis of the Chairm an's and field-workers' reports does throw considerable light onthe major obstacles to be surmounted before suchan important ingredient of a population policy mixcan be effective.

CONCLUSIONHad a successful population policy been insti-tuted some twenty years ago, one could speculateon the nature of present problems pertainingto school places, school-leaver problems, labourmarket absorptive powers, housing deficiencies.

consumption and nutritional standards, socialservices and incomes per capita conditionsthat are inextricably woven out of our evolvingdemographic character. The changes have, how-ever, already taken place. All that can be donenow is to ensure that the future is not aggravatedby more serious features. The absence of a cauti-ous, rational and acceptable population policyleads to a situation in which the writer feels hecannot be both optimistic and honest. Only whenthe population problem is no longer undervaluedin practical policy,"'0 v/hen the social responsi-bilities for economic development are accepted byall, and a concerted effort made can Rhodesiahope to be an active participant in the 'SecondDevelopment Decade', and only then will it bepossible to meet the six 'direct difficulties' cited .by the Pearson Commission, and identifiable inRhodesia, with confidence and vigour.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTMrs. I. R. E. Spilhaus of the Fam ily Planning Association (Rh ode sia) has kindly p rovided data forparts of this paper; the views expressed, however, are those of the author.

REFERENCES1. CLA RK , C. 1968 Population Growth and Living Stand ards. In : A R G A W A L A , A . N . an d SINGH, S. P. eds., TheEconomics of Underdevelopment. Lond on, Oxford University Press. 32-53.2. For an exposition of the Marxist case, see MAULD1N, W. P. 1960 Population Policies in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Lawand Contemporary Problems, 25, 490-507.3. C O M M I S S I O N O N I N T E R N A T I O N A L D E V E L O P M E N T 1 9 6 9 Partners in Development: Report ( C h a i r man :L. B. Pearson). London, Pall Mall, p. 55.4. IBID., pp. 57-8.5. IBID., p. 206. v6. UNITED NATIONS 1969 Demographic Yearbook 1968. New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,p. 83. The relatively h igh average a nn ua l death rale in Africa of 21 per 1 000 (1963-68) implies that up ward in-creases in the rates of natural increase are likely in the years to come; the average annual death rates for theAmericas in the same period were 9 per 1 000 (No rth Am erica) and It per 1 000 (South A me rica), IBID .7. It is claimed (hat the only reliable statistics in Africa are for Rhodesia and South Africa, Oxford Regional EconomicAtlas: Africa. Oxford, Clarendon Press, p. 5. Yet even in these countries data are estimated to undcr-enumerate thereal size of popu lation . Rho desia in 1969 revised her estimates upw ards, and South A frica is expected to do the samefor 1970.8. See for exam ple the death-rates (p er 10 00 ) of 43 for P ortugu ese Gu inea : 31 for Chad; 33,3 for Ivory C oa st;*35 for Upper Vol ta ; 29 for L iberia , INTERNA TION AL PLAN NED P AREN THO OD F EDE RA TION 1969 FamilyPlanning on Five Continents. London, pp. 3-9.9. Despite much work by Governments, voluntary associations and international agencies, Africa does not enjoy goodmedical facilities. Whilst there is one physician for 750 person s in U.S.A ., the ratio in Ken ya is 1:20 000, GU TT -MACIIER, A. F. 1968 Medicine in Developing Countries. In: I N T E R N A T I O N A L P L A N N E D P A R E N T H O O DFEDERATION 1968 The Role of Family Planning in African Development. London, 27. The Rhodesian ratio isgiven as 1:4 300, RHODESIA 1966 Rhodesia in the Context of Africa. Salisbury, Ministry of Information, Govern-ment Printer, p. 49. Added to this is the fact that medical expenditure per capita is smaller than that of advancedcountries.10. For an exposition of this model, see BARBER, W. J. 1961 The Economy of British Central Africa. London, OxfordUniversity Press.11. The annual average rates of increase 1962-69 are as follows: Europeans 0,8 per cent; Coloureds 4,8 per cent; Asians2,5 per cent, RHODESIA 1970 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1969. Salisbury, Ministry of Finance, GovernmentPrinler, C.S.R. 16, p. 6.12. For an empirical examination of hum an resource deficiencies in Rhodesia, see U NIV ER SIT Y CO LL EG E O FRHODESIA AND NYASALAND 1964 The Requirements and Supplies of High Level Manpower in SouthernRhodesia, 1961-1970. Salisbury, Ma npowe r Survey Sub-Committee, D epartm ent of Econom ics, Occasional PaperN o . 3.

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The spirit of such a measure was expressed in the recent plea by the Prime Minister, Mr. I. D. Smith, for Euro-pean 'immigration via the cradle', The Rhodesia Herald, 2.vi.l970.RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics* Decem ber. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 1, Table 1. TheEu rop ean , Co lour ed an d Asian pop ulati ons on 3O.vi.l 970 were 239 000, 16 100 and 9 200 respectively.RHODESIA 1971 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1970. Salisbury. Ministry of Finance. Government Printer,Cmd.R.R.12, p. 5.RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistic-;: Decem ber. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 1, Table 2: 90,8per cent of the Asian, 83,2 per cent of the Coloured and 79,0 per cent of the Euro pean c omm unities were urban .Defined as 'total de facto African popula tion less all Africans living in urban areas, all A fricans and dependentsworking on mines, all Africans living on European occupied farming land and all male employees living in tribalareas other than those working for African employers', RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balance of Pay-ments of Rhodesia 1968. Salisbury Ce ntra l Statistical Office, p . 13, Tab le 24. It should b e note d how ever th at thedivisions made are somewhat arbitrary in that a degree of transition exists between them, particularly between theAfrican Rural Hou sehold sector and the 'medium incom e' sector of the Mon ey Econo my.PEJOVICH, S. 1970 Some Important Factors in the Economic Growth of Rhodesia. S. Afr. J. Econ., 38, 141, TableII. The average annu al rate of growth of African labou r is estimated at 0,83 per cent, b ut these estimates werebased on unrevised emp loym ent dat a.A theoretical treatment of this phenomenon which closely approximates the Rhodesian condition can be found inC H O , Y.S. 1963 'Disguised Unemploymen t' in Underdeveloped Areas with Special Reference to South K orean Agri-culture. Berkley, University of California Press.

Report by ./. L. Sadie on P lanning for the Econom ic Deve lopment of Rhodesia. Salisbury Govern-ment Printer, C.S.R. 35, p. 7.JOHNSON, R. W. M. 1961 On the Valuation of Subsistence Production. In: Occasional Paper No. 1, UniversityCollege of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Department of Economics.Between 1960 and 1962 the Europ ean C onsumer Price Index m oved upwa rds from 91,7 to 96,3 points an d from1962 to 1968 the African Con sum er Price Index reco rde d a n inc rease of 15,1 point s from 94,4 to 109,5 points,RHODESIA 1969 Monthly Digest of Statistics: January. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, pp. 14-15, 16, 17.Abstract of British Historical Statistics. Cambridge, University Press, pp. 27-37.RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962 Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia, pp. 8, 18. In1954 expectatio n of life at b irth for both sexes was 48 years and in 1962 was put at 50 years. No do ubt the 1969Census data when released will confirm that it has risen further. The 'burden of dependency' in Rhodesia is indicatedby the following statistic: 50,9 per cent of Africans were in the 0-14 years age group in 1962. Consideration must,however, be given to the incidence of child labour in the Rural Household seator.For an analysis on this problem see BONE. R. C. 1968 Educational Development in Rhodesia, Rhod. J. Econ., 2,( iv ) , 5-27; see also RHODESIA 1969 Third Report of the Select C omm ittee on Education. Salisbury, GovernmentPrinter, S.C.5. Report of the Secretary for Health for the year ended 31stDecember, 1969. Salisbury Government Printer, Cmd.R.R. 19, pp. 29, 54: ', . . surveys indicate that among Africanchildren in the younger age groups 50 per cent arc below the 10 percenlile weight level; 14 per cent are severely mal-nourished and of this num ber approximately one third have "K w ash iork or" .' The findings of medical inspectors inEur ope an sch ools indicate that of 6 936 children exam ined the nutr ition al state of 11,85 per cent was 'bor der line 'and another 7,98 per cent were regarded as being in an 'unsatisfactory' nutritional condition; for Coloured and Asianchildren, of which 1 528 were examined, 20,7 per cent were 'bo rderline ' and 28,59 per cent 'unsatisfac tory'. N o dataare given for African schoolchildren.PE JO VI CH , 146, Table V III, shows that between 1960 and 1967 the 'savings ratio ' (S / Y ) at 1964 prices declinedfrom 19 per cent to 14 per cent while the 'investment rat io' ( I / Y ) declined from 18,13 per cent to 8,07 per cent. Ona per capita basis the decline in levels of capital fo rma tion wou ld be further emp hasised.The theoretical issues involved in such a policy are examined in S PEN GL ER , J. J . 'The Pop ulatio n Explo sion:Implications.' Paper delivered at the South African Institute of International Affairs Conference on the Impact onInlernatio nal Relations of the Po pulatio n Explosion, 23.vi. 1. vii. 1970, Johan nesbu rg,RHODESIA 1970 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1969. Salisbury, Ministry of Finance, C.S.R.16, p. 7. Half ofthese employees are believed to be engaged in the agricultural sector where low real wages lead Rhodesian Africansto assign a low preference to agricultural employment,RHODESIA 1969 Report of the Secretary for Labour and Social Welfare for the year ended 31st Decem ber, 1968.Salisbury, Gov ernme nt Printer, C.S.R .31, p. 38. Also RH O DE SIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics: Decem ber, p. 4,Table 5.Report by J. L. Sadie, pp. 2-3.See CL AR KE , D. G. 1970 The Assumed Employm ent Gene rating Capacity of Euro pean Im migration in Rhod esia,Rhod. J. Econ., 4 ( i i ) , 3342.A population policy implies control, or some measure of control over the growth and size of the total population.Whilst these variables are affected by mortality rates, migration and the rate and level of economic development, thediscussion that follows will be primarily concerned with policy directed towards lowering the birth rate. In Rhodesiathe birth rate for the African, Asia n and Eu rop ean gro up s is 52 per 1 000, 25 per 1 000 and 18 per 1 000 respectively.Exact details of the Coloured birth rate are not available, but their average growth seems to be about five per cent.RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics: Decem ber. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 2, Table 3.The first clinic fo r African s bega n 1960 and received 142 patie nts in its first year of ope rati on.Estimated by the Chairman of Family Planning Association (Rhodesia), Mrs. I. R. E. Spilhaus. It excludes work ofprivate doctors and industrial firms.

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36. It was only in 1966 that the Ministry of Health agreed to allow family planning facilities to be made available inGovernment hospitals. Indications are that increasing emphasis is being given to family planning in State insti-tutions.