Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… 1 Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center TCC 29-30 April 2009 Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority… GFDN 2009 The GFDN Team Carey Dickerman, FNMOC lead Roger Stocker, FNMOC Isaac Ginnis, URI Morris Bender, GFDL

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Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center TCC 29-30 April 2009. GFDN 2009. Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept. The GFDN Team Carey Dickerman, FNMOC lead Roger Stocker, FNMOC Isaac Ginnis, URI Morris Bender, GFDL. Fleet Numerical…. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

Page 1: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…

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Chuck Skupniewicz Models (N34M)FNMOC Operations Dept

Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center

TCC

29-30 April 2009

Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…

GFDN 2009

The GFDN TeamCarey Dickerman, FNMOC leadRoger Stocker, FNMOCIsaac Ginnis, URIMorris Bender, GFDL

Page 2: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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Old vs New GFDN: Comparison of Main Features

GFDN GF3C

Ocean Coupling none POM (3-D)

Nests ½°, 1/6° 1/2°, 1/6°, 1/12°

Grid domain 75 X 75°, 11 X 11°Fixed moving

75 X 75°, 11X 11°, 5 X 5°Fixed moving moving

Dissipative Heating none Added to Core Region

Microphysics Large-scale Condensation NCEP Ferrier Upgrade

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ATMOSPHERE

OCEAN

Warm sea surface temperature

Cool subsurface temperature

Ocean response to hurricane forcing:Ocean response to hurricane forcing:1. Vertical mixing/entrainment1. Vertical mixing/entrainmentWind stress → surface layer currentsCurrent shear → turbulence

Turbulent mixing → entrainment of cooler water

Sea surface temperature decreases

Subsurface temperature increases

This is a 1-D (vertical) processfrom Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,

St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Page 4: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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Cyclonichurricane

vortex

ATMOSPHERE

OCEAN

Warm sea surface temperature

Cool subsurface temperature

Ocean response to hurricane forcing:Ocean response to hurricane forcing:2. Upwelling2. UpwellingCyclonic wind stress → divergent surface currentsDivergent currents → upwelling

Upwelling → cooler water brought to surface

This is a 3-D processfrom Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,

St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

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Hurricanes have historically translated Hurricanes have historically translated in the Gulf of Mexico:in the Gulf of Mexico:< 5 m s< 5 m s-1-1 73% and < 2 m s 73% and < 2 m s-1-1 16% of the time 16% of the time

in the western tropical North Atlanticin the western tropical North Atlanticat < 5 m sat < 5 m s-1-1 62% and < 2 m s 62% and < 2 m s-1-1 12% of the time 12% of the time

SST cooling within hurricane inner-core in 3D and 1D ocean models

from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,

St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

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1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling

Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006 Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm

HOUR 0

HOUR 120 HOUR 120

1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling

HOUR 0

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Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006)

1 3-D OCEAN COUPLING

2 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN

3 1-D OCEAN COUPLING

MAXIMUM WINDS

CENTRAL PRESSURE

3-D Coupling

3-D Coupling

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Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008

GFDN Forecast Performance: Intensity Forecast Validation against “Old”

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Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008

GFDN Forecast Performance:Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (ST5D) Validation

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Northern Indian Ocean - io012008Northern Indian Ocean - io012008North Atlantic - al022008North Atlantic - al022008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008North Eastern Pacific - ep022008, ep052008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Southern Hemisphere - sh232008, sh262008, sh282008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008Northwestern Pacific - wp042005, wp212005, wp042006, wp112006, wp212006, wp222006, wp052007, wp072007, wp072008

GFDN Forecast Performance: Tracks

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IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES

(2005-2007)AVERAGE TRACK SKILL AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL

from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

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GFDN STATUS - TODAY

• Operational on A2 since Oct 2008.

• Atlantic: 3-D Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forecast with GDEM ocean climatology initialization. NOGAPS (NCODA low resolution) SST analysis.

• Pacific: 1-D POM with 3-D NCODA analysis initialization. NCODA high resolution SST analysis.

Page 13: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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GFDN STATUS – June 2009

• Adding Asymmetry Factor. DONE. Operational in January.

• Adding altimetry data assimilation for Atlantic to define Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. DONE Operational in April.

• With University of Rhode Island, adding POM-3D in the Pacific. Delivery in March. Operational in May.

Page 14: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS WITH 3-D COUPLING COMPARED TO 1-D

1-D GFDN

3-D GFDN

3-D GFDN

1-D GFDN

from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

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REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5WITH 3-D COUPLING

OLD GFDN

from Bender et al., “Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

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ISSUES

• Joint JTWC / FNOC review of SOPs (in progress)

• Need an independent review of GFDN upgrades by JTWC.

• Need to watch GFDL vs GFDN (GFS vs NOGAPS)

• NOAA has stopped funding for GFDL. FNMOC relies on GFDL/URI developers for maintenance.

Page 17: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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OPSNAV/AR

2008 Northern HemisphereHomogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)

01 August 2008 – 17 September 2008

150 116 86 Number of Forecasts68 50

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GFDN DONEBACKUP SLIDES FOLLOW

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Atmospheric Boundary LayerAtmospheric Boundary Layer

Momentum & KE Flux

Turbulence Sea Spray

BubblesMomentum & KE Flux

Nonbreaking Waves Breaking Waves

Wave induced stress

Reynolds stress

(Langmuir) Turbulence

Air-Sea Interface

Heat & Humidity Flux

Airflow separationIntermittency

Intermittency ofMomentum & KE injection

Stokes drift

Ocean Boundary LayerOcean Boundary Layer

MORE PHYSICSMORE PHYSICS TO COMETO COME

from Ginnis et al., “Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Transition to Operations”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference,

St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Page 20: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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NGPIAVNIGFDIGFNIEGRIHWFIEMXIAEMITVCNOFCL

2008 AtlanticNon-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)

314 251 204 Number of Forecasts160 131from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St.

Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Interpolated Model GuidanceAVNI – Global Forecast System (GFS) run at NCEP

GFDI – GFDL model run at NCEP

HWFI – Hurricane WRF run at NCEP

NGPI – Navy global model (NOGAPS) run at FNMOC

GFNI – GFDL model run at FNMOC

EGRI – UK Met Office global model

EMXI – ECMWF global model

TVCN – Consensus of above models (at least two)

AEMI – NCEP GFS ensemble mean

Page 21: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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100150200250300350400450500

24 48 72 96 120

NGPIAVNIGFDIGFNIEGRIHWFIEMXIAEMITVCNOFCL

2008 Eastern North PacificNon-Homogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)

238 178 130 Number of Forecasts90 57from Goerss, J., “Ensemble, Corrected Consensus, and Weighted Consensus TC Track Forecasts”, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St.

Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Page 22: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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NCEP COMPARISON: Apples to Oranges

The following is from storm AL172008, which was an early November 2008 TC. It's the one AL storm with some history that was forecast by the OPAL OPS GFDN.

FORECAST VERIFICATION RESULTS

AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS (NM) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE• 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 120• GFDN 6.4 34.0 63.1 96.2 119.1 167.1 147.1 0.0• GFDL 6.0 43.8 63.5 74.4 82.5 111.6 262.5 0.0• #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0

AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLEAVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS (KT) FOR HOMOGENEOUS SAMPLE 00 12 24 36 48 72 96 12000 12 24 36 48 72 96 120• GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0GFDN 12.7 18.8 25.6 33.5 37.9 16.0 27.0 0.0• GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0GFDL 9.2 20.6 18.3 14.8 14.4 26.0 39.0 0.0• NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0NCHG 0.0 24.6 43.3 51.5 53.1 40.0 5.0 0.0• #CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0#CASES 14 14 12 10 8 4 1 0

Page 23: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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2008 Western PacificHomogeneous TC Forecast Error (nm)

(UKMet)

Page 24: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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96 Hr 120 Hr2004 206 2752005 212 2632006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 447Goal 200 250

from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Page 25: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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96 Hr 120 Hr2004 206 2752005 212 2632006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 447Goal 200 250

from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.

Page 26: Chuck Skupniewicz   Models (N34M) FNMOC Operations Dept

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JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS

(WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr2004 11 17 21 23 262005 12 18 24 25 252006 13 17 20 22 242007 13 18 20 24 262008 12 19 21 22 28

from Falvey et al., JTWC 2008 Report, 63th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, St. Petersburg, FL, 2009.