Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

download Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

of 12

Transcript of Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    1/12

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E Dec (` cr) 2QCY13 2QCY12 % chg (yoy) 1QCY13 % chg (qoq)Net Sales 2,307 2,178 5.9 2,209 4.4EBITDA 363 329 10.5 382 (4.9)

    EBITDA Margin (%) 15.7 15.1 65bp 17.3 (155)bp

    Adj. PAT 252 247 1.7 260 (3.1)Source: Company, Angel Research

    Bosch (BOS) reported in-line results for 2QCY2013. While the top-line grew at a

    better-than-expected rate of 5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq); EBITDA margins continued to

    remain under pressure (down 155bp sequentially) resulting in a muted growth in

    the bottom-line. We revise our CY2013 revenue estimates slightly downwards to

    factor in the continued slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. Further,

    due to higher tax-rate assumption, we revise downwards the CY2013 bottom-line

    estimate by 4.6%. Nevertheless, we expect the companys earnings growth to revive

    in CY2014 led by revival in the domestic automotive industry which has posted two

    years of muted growth. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.In-line performance for 2QCY2013: BOS posted a healthy top-line growth of5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq) to `2,307cr, ahead of our estimates of `2,188cr, driven by

    a strong exports growth of 14.1% yoy. The increase in net average realization due

    to price increases also aided the top-line performance. Domestic revenue

    however, reported a modest growth of 3.8% yoy as domestic automotive demand

    continued to remain weak following a challenging macroeconomic environment.

    While the automotive business segment registered a growth of 4.7% yoy, thenon-automotive business segment grew by 11.8% yoy. On the operating front, the

    EBITDA margin declined 155bp sequentially to 15.7%, lower than our

    expectations of 16.8%. The performance was impacted due to the INR depreciation

    against the EUR and also due to increase in staff expenditure on account of annual

    salary hikes. Consequently, the operating profit declined 4.9% qoq to `363cr,

    in-line with our estimates of `367cr. Net profit for the quarter stood at `252cr

    (up 1.7% yoy but down 3.1% qoq), in-line with our estimate of `249cr.

    Outlook and valuation:We remain positive on the long term prospects of BOS dueto its technological leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; however,

    we expect the near-term performance of the company to remain subdued due to

    slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. At, `8,312 the stock is trading at 19.6x

    CY2014E earnings. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with a targetprice of `9,096.

    Key financials (Standalone)Y/E Dec (` cr) CY2011 CY2012 CY2013E CY2014ENet Sales 8,166 8,659 9,301 10,895% chg 18.7 6.0 7.4 17.1

    Net Profit 1,067 874 1,067 1,328% chg 62.1 (18.1) 22.1 24.5

    EBITDA (%) 18.5 15.6 16.8 18.0EPS (`) 339.7 278.3 339.8 423.1P/E (x) 24.5 29.9 24.5 19.6

    P/BV (x) 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.5

    RoE (%) 22.6 15.7 16.6 17.6

    RoCE (%) 27.5 18.3 18.6 20.8

    EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9

    EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 17.2 14.4 11.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `8,312

    Target Price `9,096

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Bloomberg Code BOS@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 71.2

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 14.2

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 7.4

    Indian Public / Others 7.2

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex (4.8) 7.6 3.2

    Bosch (7.5) (6.9) 41.2

    10

    18,733

    5,542

    BOSH.BO

    Auto Ancillary

    Avg. Daily Volume

    Market Cap (`cr)

    Beta

    52 Week High / Low

    26,100

    0.2

    9,590/8,182

    1,296

    Net Debt (`cr) (3,085)

    Face Value (`)

    BSE Sensex

    Nifty

    Reuters Code

    Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

    [email protected]

    BoschPerformance Highlights

    2QCY2013 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

    August 7, 2013

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    2/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 2

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)Y/E Dec (` cr) 2QCY13 2QCY12 % chg (yoy) 1QCY13 % chg (qoq) 1HCY13 1HCY12 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 2,307 2,178 5.9 2,209 4.4 4,516 4,473 1.0Consumption of RM 729 741 (1.7) 722 0.9 1,450 1,456 (0.4)(% of sales) 31.6 34.0 32.7 32.1 32.5

    Staff costs 307 248 23.8 286 7.1 593 497 19.3

    (% of sales) 13.3 11.4 13.0 13.1 11.1

    Purchases of TG 544 495 9.8 464 17.3 1,008 1,021 (1.3)

    (% of sales) 23.6 22.7 21.0 22.3 22.8

    Other Expenses 365 366 (0.3) 356 2.5 721 694 3.8

    (% of sales) 15.8 16.8 16.1 16.0 15.5

    Total Expenditure 1,944 1,850 5.1 1,828 6.4 3,772 3,668 2.8Operating Profit 363 329 10.5 382 (4.9) 745 806 (7.6)OPM (%) 15.7 15.1 17.3 (9.0) 16.5 18.0

    Interest 0 0 60.0 0 (72.4) 0 0 640.0

    Depreciation 86 76 13.6 84 2.6 171 140 21.8

    Other Income 90 89 0.4 89 0.5 179 157 14.4

    PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 366 342 7.1 387 (5.3) 753 822 (8.4)Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - -

    PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 366 342 7.1 387 (5.3) 753 822 (8.4)(% of Sales) 15.9 15.7 17.5 16.7 18.4

    Provision for Taxation 115 94 21.3 127 (9.7) 242 239 1.1

    (% of PBT) 31.3 27.6 32.8 32.1 29.1

    Reported PAT 252 247 1.7 260 (3.1) 511 583 (12.3)Adj PAT 252 247 1.7 260 (3.1) 511 583 (12.3)

    Adj. PATM 10.9 11.4 11.8 11.3 13.0

    Equity shares (cr) 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4

    Reported EPS (`) 80.2 78.8 1.7 82.7 (3.1) 162.9 185.8 (12.3)Adjusted EPS (`) 80.2 78.8 1.7 82.7 (3.1) 162.9 185.8 (12.3)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:2QCY2013 Actual vs Angel estimatesY/E Dec (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net sales 2,307 2,188 5.4EBITDA 363 367 (1.1)

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.7 16.8 (103)bp

    Adj. PAT 252 249 0.9Source: Company, Angel Research

    Healthy top-line growth aided by exports: For 2QCY2013, the top-line posted ahealthy growth of 5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq) to `2,307cr, ahead of our estimates of

    `2,188cr, driven by a strong growth in exports by 14.1% yoy. The increase in net

    average realization due to price increases and growth in after market segment (up

    4.5% yoy) also aided the top-line performance. Domestic revenue however,

    reported a modest growth of 3.8% yoy as domestic automotive demand continued

    to remain weak following challenging macroeconomic environment. While the

    automotive business segment registered a growth of 4.7% yoy, the non-automotive

    business segment grew by 11.8% yoy.

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    3/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 3

    Exhibit 3:Segmental performanceY/E Dec (` cr) 2QCY13 2QCY12 % chg (yoy) 1QCY13 % chg (qoq) 1HCY13 1HCY12 % chg (yoy)RevenueAutomotive 2,034 1,943 4.7 1,905 6.8 3,939 3,953 (0.3)Others 274 245 11.8 306 (10.6) 580 520 11.5

    Total 2,308 2,188 5.5 2,211 4.4 4,519 4,473 1.0Less: Inter-segment revenue 1 9 2 (28.2) 3 27

    Net sales 2,307 2,178 5.9 2,209 4.4 4,516 4,446 1.6EBITAutomotive 312 276 13.3 302 3.4 614 699 (12.1)

    Others (1) 8 - 40 - 40 35 13.4

    Total EBIT 312 284 9.9 342 (8.9) 654 734 (10.9)Add: Net interest income 0 0 60.0 0 (72.4) 0 0 640.0

    Less: unallocable exp. (55) (58) (6.4) (45) 22.1 (99) (88) 12.4

    Total PBT 366 342 7.1 387 (5.4) 754 822 (8.3)EBIT Margin (%)Automotive 15.4 14.2 116bp 15.9 (50)bp 15.6 17.7 (208)bp

    Others (0.2) 3.2 - 13.1 - 6.9 6.7 11.3

    Total 13.5 13.0 15.5 14.5 16.4Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Healthy growth in top-line

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:Segment-wise revenue trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    EBITDA margin contracts sequentially to 15.7%: On the operating front, theEBITDA margin declined 155bp sequentially to 15.7%, lower than our expectations

    of 16.8%. The performance was impacted due to the INR depreciation against the

    EUR and also due to increase in staff expenditure on account of annual salary

    hikes. Consequently, the operating profit declined 4.9% qoq to `363cr, in-line with

    our estimates of `367cr. On a yoy basis though, the EBITDA margin improved

    65bp primarily on account of softening of raw-material prices and decline in other

    expenditure (aided by cost reduction initiatives) although the same was partially

    offset by a sharp increase in employee expenditure and unfavorable currency

    movement. Net profit for the quarter stood at `252cr (up 1.7% yoy but down 3.1%

    qoq), in-line with our estimates of `249cr.

    2,0

    60

    1,9

    91

    2,0

    29

    2,2

    95

    2,1

    78

    2,0

    54

    2,1

    32

    2,2

    09

    2,3

    07

    21.1

    16.4

    7.710.0

    5.83.1

    5.1(3.7)

    5.9

    (5.0)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    1,800

    1,850

    1,9001,950

    2,000

    2,0502,100

    2,150

    2,2002,2502,300

    2,350

    2QCY11

    3QCY11

    4QCY11

    1QCY12

    2QCY12

    3QCY12

    4QCY12

    1QCY13

    2QCY13

    (%)(`cr) Net sales Net sales growth (RHS)

    1,828 1,784 1,8452,010 1,922 1,831 1,917 1,903

    2,034

    204 211 212 275 244 231 225306 274

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    2QCY11

    3QCY11

    4QCY11

    1QCY12

    2QCY12

    3QCY12

    4QCY12

    1QCY13

    2QCY13

    (`cr) Automotive revenue Other revenue

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    4/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 4

    Exhibit 6:EBITDA margins continue to remain volatile

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 7:Net profit in-line with estimates

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    18.4 19.3 16.820.8

    15.1 13.3 12.517.3 15.7

    56.8 54.5 52.7 54.756.8 57.6

    53.9 53.7 55.2

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    2QCY11

    3QCY11

    4QCY11

    1QCY12

    2QCY12

    3QCY12

    4QCY12

    1QCY13

    2QCY13

    (%) EBITDA margins Raw material cost/sales

    279

    288

    281

    336

    247

    203

    172

    260

    252

    13.514.5

    13.914.6

    11.4 9.9

    8.1

    11.8

    10.9

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    2QCY11

    3QCY11

    4QCY11

    1QCY12

    2QCY12

    3QCY12

    4QCY12

    1QCY13

    2QCY13

    (%)(`cr) Net profit Net profit margin (RHS)

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    5/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 5

    Investment arguments

    Technology intensive industry supplemented by high bargaining power: Weestimate BOS to post an ~12% CAGR in its top-line and ~23% CAGR in its

    bottom-line over CY2012-14. The company enjoys high margins in the auto

    component segment due to strong entry barriers and its dominant position in

    the market. Nonetheless, due to decline in utilization levels (~70-75% across

    plants) and higher INR depreciation, the company witnessed a significant

    290bp contraction in operating margins in CY2012. Going ahead, we expect

    the demand environment to improve in CY2014, which will improve utilization

    levels and thus the margins. Further, the benefits of cost reduction initiatives

    will also accrue to the company in CY2013. As a result, we expect margins to

    improve by ~120bp in CY2013 to 16.8%.

    Dependent on favorable CV cycle for growth: BOS's prospects are largelyderived from demand arising in the CV and tractor segments. While the

    slowdown in the CV segment has continued YTD in CY2013, the tractor

    segment has witnessed a strong revival following better monsoon and

    expectations of better kharif crop. We expect the CV cycle to reverse in

    FY2015 which is expected to revive companys revenue and earnings growth.

    Further, greater visibility on newer growth opportunities is emerging for the

    company, following its investments in new and innovative technologies such as

    CRS and gasoline systems. We believe the company will continue to enjoy

    premium valuations, owing to strong parental focus and increasing long-term

    growth opportunities in the Indian market, facilitated by changes in emission

    norms. Moreover, BOS has been a consistent performer with strong cash flows

    in the Indian auto component industry.

    Outlook and valuation

    We revise our CY2013 revenue estimates slightly downwards to factor in the

    continued slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. Further, due to a higher

    tax-rate assumption, we revise downwards our CY2013 bottom-line estimate by

    4.6%. Nevertheless, we expect the companys earnings growth to revive in CY2014

    led by revival in the domestic automotive industry which has posted two years of

    muted growth.

    Exhibit 8:Change in estimatesY/E December Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

    CY2013E CY2014E CY2013E CY2014E CY2013E CY2014ETotal income (` cr) 9,558 10,959 9,301 10,895 (2.7) (0.6)OPM (%) 16.7 17.4 16.8 18.0 7bp 62bp

    EPS (`) 356.3 420.7 339.8 423.1 (4.6) 0.6Source: Company, Angel Research

    We remain positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technologicalleadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; however, we expect the

    near-term performance of the company to remain subdued due to slowdown in the

    domestic automotive industry. We estimate BOS to post an ~12% CAGR in its top-

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    6/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 6

    line and ~23% CAGR in its bottom-line over CY2012-14. As a result, we estimate

    BOS to post an EPS of `339.8 and `423.1 for CY2013 and CY2014, respectively.

    At, `8,312 the stock is trading at 19.6x CY2014E earnings. We recommend anAccumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `9,096.Exhibit 9:Key assumptionsVolumes (mn units) CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12E CY13E CY14EFuel injection pumps 2.7 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.3 4.9

    Nozzles 16.3 21.5 23.0 22.2 24.1 28.3

    Auto electrical 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 10:Angel vs consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)CY13E CY14E CY13E CY14E CY13E CY14E

    Total op. income (` cr) 9,301 10,895 9,415 11,073 (1.2) (1.6)EPS (`) 339.8 423.1 340.4 416.6 (0.2) 1.6

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:One-year forward P/E chart

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Premium/ Discount to Sensex

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:Relative performance to Sensex

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,0007,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    Jan-0

    3

    Jan-0

    4

    Feb-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Mar-07

    Apr-08

    Apr-09

    May-1

    0

    Jun-1

    1

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-13

    (`) Share price (`) 12x 16x 20x 24x

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    Aug-0

    5

    May-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Dec-0

    7

    Oct-08

    Aug-0

    9

    May-1

    0

    Mar-11

    Dec-1

    1

    Oct-12

    Jul-13

    (x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/E

    (100)

    (50)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Apr-02

    Apr-03

    Apr-04

    May-0

    5

    May-0

    6

    May-0

    7

    Jun-0

    8

    Jun-0

    9

    Jun-1

    0

    Jul-11

    Jul-12

    Jul-13

    (%) Absolute premium Five-yr average premium

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Jan-0

    5

    Nov-0

    5

    Sep-0

    6

    Jul-07

    Jun-0

    8

    Apr-09

    Feb-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Nov-1

    1

    Sep-1

    2

    Jul-13

    Bosch India Sensex

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    7/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 7

    Exhibit 15:Auto Ancillary Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)

    P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY13-15E EPSFY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%)

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 221 285 29.2 11.9 10.8 7.8 6.4 26.6 23.8 8.4Automotive Axle^ Neutral 195 - - 11.3 7.2 4.6 3.4 9.5 14.0 (4.7)

    Bharat Forge* Neutral 188 - - 12.9 10.9 5.6 4.8 13.6 14.7 18.6

    Bosch India# Accumulate 8,312 9,096 9.4 24.5 19.6 14.6 11.3 16.6 17.6 23.3Exide Industries Buy 121 148 22.4 15.3 13.4 8.1 6.8 18.3 18.0 21.1

    FAG Bearings# Neutral 1,164 - - 15.4 11.4 8.8 6.2 13.4 15.8 3.4

    Motherson Sumi* Accumulate 211 242 14.8 16.2 13.1 6.6 5.6 29.4 28.6 24.9

    Subros Buy 19 23 21.7 8.0 4.9 3.2 2.8 4.8 7.6 5.6

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end

    Company backgroundBosch, promoted by Robert Bosch GmbH, is the largest auto ancillary company in

    India and a dominant player in the fuel injection segment with ~75% market

    share. The company has a diverse product portfolio of diesel and gasoline fuel

    injection systems, automotive aftermarket products, auto electricals, special

    purpose machines, packaging machines, electric power tools and security systems.

    The automotive segment contributes 90% to BOS' total revenue. The company also

    has one of the largest distribution networks of spare parts in the country, with

    after-market component sales accounting for ~20% of revenue. BOS has five

    manufacturing facilities located at Bangalore, Nasik, Naganathpura, Jaipur and

    Goa.

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    8/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 8

    Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

    Y/E Dec. (` cr) CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13E CY14ETotal operating income 4,996 6,882 8,166 8,659 9,301 10,895% chg 5.3 37.8 18.7 6.0 7.4 17.1Total expenditure 4,183 5,629 6,654 7,310 7,740 8,937Net raw material costs 2,551 3,598 4,444 4,783 5,029 5,844

    Other mfg costs 360 432 445 460 489 574

    Employee expenses 609 796 896 1,037 1,170 1,340

    Other 663 803 870 1,030 1,052 1,179

    EBITDA 813 1,253 1,512 1,350 1,560 1,958% chg (5.1) 54.1 20.6 (10.7) 15.6 25.5

    (% of total op. income) 16.3 18.2 18.5 15.6 16.8 18.0

    Depreciation & amortization 304 254 258 367 410 467

    EBIT 510 999 1,254 983 1,150 1,491% chg (8.0) 96.0 25.5 (21.7) 17.1 29.7

    (% of total op. income) 10.6 15.0 15.7 11.5 12.6 13.9

    Interest and other charges 1 4 0 6 6 7

    Other income 285 7 320 369 414 455

    PBT (recurring) 793 1,002 1,574 1,346 1,558 1,939% chg (7.4) 26.3 57.0 (14.5) 15.7 24.5

    Extraordinary exp./ (income) 64 0 56 84 - -

    PBT (reported) 729 1,002 1,518 1,262 1,558 1,939Tax 203 344 451 388 491 611

    (% of PBT) 27.8 34.3 29.7 30.7 31.5 31.5

    PAT (reported) 591 659 1,123 958 1,067 1,328ADJ. PAT 527 658 1,067 874 1,067 1,328% chg (4.7) 25.0 62.1 (18.1) 22.1 24.5

    (% of total op. income) 11.0 9.8 13.3 10.3 11.7 12.4

    Basic EPS (`) 188.1 209.7 357.5 305.2 339.8 423.1Adj. EPS (`) 167.7 209.6 339.7 278.3 339.8 423.1% chg (2.9) 25.0 62.1 (18.1) 22.1 24.5

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    9/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 9

    Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

    Y/E Dec. (` cr) CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13E CY14ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity share capital 31 31 31 31 31 31Reserves & surplus 3,354 4,067 4,697 5,542 6,389 7,498

    Shareholders Funds 3,385 4,098 4,728 5,573 6,421 7,530Total loans 284 276 245 185 185 185

    Deferred tax liability (201) (218) (228) (255) (255) (255)

    Other long term liabilities - - 37 33 33 33

    Long term provisions - - 172 218 218 218

    Total Liabilities 3,468 4,156 4,955 5,755 6,602 7,711APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross block 2,865 3,017 3,352 3,935 4,502 5,092

    Less: Acc. depreciation 2,358 2,588 2,767 3,078 3,488 3,955

    Net Block 507 430 585 857 1,013 1,137Capital work-in-progress 100 224 321 417 451 510

    Goodwill 6 6 6 6 6 6

    Investments 1,418 1,607 1,635 1,520 1,744 2,036Long term loans & advances - - 333 226 226 226

    Current assets 2,758 3,752 4,024 4,623 5,162 5,974Cash 1,068 1,326 952 1,487 1,801 2,036

    Loans & advances 556 896 993 1,019 1,097 1,287

    Other 1,135 1,530 2,079 2,117 2,264 2,651

    Current liabilities 1,320 1,863 1,948 1,894 1,999 2,179

    Net current assets 1,438 1,889 2,075 2,729 3,163 3,796Total Assets 3,468 4,156 4,955 5,755 6,602 7,711Note: Cash includes term deposits with banks with maturity of more than 3 months but less than 12

    months

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    10/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 10

    Cash flow statement (Standalone)

    Y/E Dec. (` cr) CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13E CY14EProfit before tax 729 1,002 1,518 1,262 1,558 1,939

    Depreciation 304 254 258 367 410 467Change in working capital 130 (14) (561) (41) (120) (397)

    Others 221 (5) 1 149 - -

    Other income (285) (7) (320) (369) (414) (455)

    Direct taxes paid (203) (344) (451) (388) (491) (611)

    Cash Flow from Operations 897 886 445 981 944 943(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (75) (277) (431) (679) (600) (650)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in investments (551) (190) (27) 115 (224) (293)

    Other income 285 7 320 369 414 455

    Cash Flow from Investing (341) (460) (138) (195) (411) (488)Issue of equity - - - - - -

    Inc./(Dec.) in loans 20 (8) (31) (60) - -

    Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 94 110 493 157 219 219

    Others (672) (270) (552) (314) - -

    Cash Flow from Financing (559) (168) (91) (217) (219) (219)Inc./(Dec.) in cash (3) 258 216 (109) 313 236

    Opening Cash balances 1,071 1,068 74 290 1,487 1,801Closing Cash balances 1,068 1,326 290 181 1,801 2,036Closing cash balance excludes term deposits with banks with maturity of more than 3 months but

    less than 12 months

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    11/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7, 2013 11

    Key ratios

    Y/E Dec. CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13E CY14EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 36.6 30.4 24.5 29.9 24.5 19.6P/CEPS 25.7 23.5 19.7 21.0 17.7 14.5

    P/BV 7.7 6.4 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.5

    Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

    EV/Sales 4.7 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9

    EV/EBITDA 29.4 18.7 15.7 17.2 14.6 11.3

    EV / Total Assets 6.9 5.6 4.8 4.0 3.4 2.9

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 227.1 273.4 339.7 278.3 339.8 423.1

    EPS (fully diluted) 167.7 209.6 339.7 278.3 339.8 423.1

    Cash EPS 323.8 354.3 421.8 395.2 470.5 571.6

    DPS 30.0 40.0 135.0 60.0 60.0 60.0

    Book Value 1,078 1,305 1,506 1,775 2,045 2,398

    Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 10.6 15.0 15.7 11.5 12.6 13.9

    Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Asset turnover (x) 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1

    ROIC (Post-tax) 16.9 25.9 26.3 16.7 17.7 19.8

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.8 2.2 2.6

    Leverage (x) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

    Operating ROE 7.0 9.7 11.5 9.2 9.7 10.9

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 15.3 26.2 27.5 18.3 18.6 20.8

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 21.2 35.3 31.3 23.0 24.0 26.3

    ROE 15.6 16.1 22.6 15.7 16.6 17.6

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3

    Inventory / Sales (days) 42 37 45 49 50 50

    Receivables (days) 49 36 37 41 41 41

    Payables (days) 61 60 66 59 60 58

    WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 31 25 38 50 51 52

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.7) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

    Net debt to EBITDA (2.7) (2.1) (1.5) (2.1) (2.2) (2.0)

    Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 428.4 254.3 3,135.3 178.6 194.7 215.2

  • 7/27/2019 Bosch, 2Q CY 2013

    12/12

    Bosch | 2QCY2013 Result Update

    August 7 2013 12

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

    DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document shouldmake such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of thecompanies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determinethe merits and risks of such an investment.

    Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in thisdocument are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

    Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions andtrading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.

    The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannottestify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may beregulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

    This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

    Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking

    or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report orin the past.

    Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise fromor in connection with the use of this information.

    Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

    Disclosure of Interest Statement Bosch

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors