(AI) t Ñ ï Å æ ¶ 6 t m M o w W Z À ¿ ¤ CC { x2018 å 10 D T 2019 å D ¤ Ì : w M ¤ R L p K...

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Transcript of (AI) t Ñ ï Å æ ¶ 6 t m M o w W Z À ¿ ¤ CC { x2018 å 10 D T 2019 å D ¤ Ì : w M ¤ R L p K...

  • (AI)

    2019 12

  • ExecutiveSummary1 2017 2018-2019

    2018 10 ( CSL)

    ( GPIF) (AI)

    2017

    (StyleDetectorArray SDA) [1]

    SDA “Resembler”

    ( ) GPIF

    2017 2018 10 2020 3

    ( 100

    )

    (

    1,000 )

    2018 10 2019 10

    2020

    2 :

    SDA Resembler

    SDA

    Resembler

    A

    SDA Resembler

    self-resemblance

    i

  • mutual-resemblance

    SDA 2017

    VFM

    SDA

    AI (AI

    Bridging Cloud Infrastructure ABCI) [2, 3] GPU

    ABCI SDA Resembler

    ABCI

    2017

    SDA Resembler

    (Self Organizing Map SOM)

    3 GPIF

    GPIF SDA

    Resembler 4 1 4

    2

    1 Resembler

    SDA

    GPIF

    GPIF

    Resembler

    Resembler

    4 Resembler

    ii

  • (a) Resembler A (b) SDA A

    1

    4: Resembler W

    AI 1)AI(Resembler SDA) 2)

    3) 3

    2)

    VAE

    3)

    iii

  • 4

    Resembler SDA

    Resembler ( )

    mutual-resemblance

    2019

    ( )

    GPIF

    iv

  • SOM

    5 AI GPIF

    GPIF

    GPIF

    GPIF

    AI

    GPIF /

    AI

    GPIF

    AI GPIF

    GPIF

    AI

    v

  • SABRmetrix “Moneyball”

    “GPIF-metrics”

    6

    (

    Resembler SDA )

    (AI

    ) 3

    7

    • GPIF ABCI AICSL 3 AI

    • AI• AI

    vi

  • ExecutiveSummary i

    1 2017 2018-2019 1

    1.1 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    1.2 2018-2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    2 : 3

    2.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    2.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

    3 GPIF 13

    3.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

    3.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    3.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

    4 23

    4.1 Resembler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

    4.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

    5 AI GPIF 30

    5.1 GPIF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

    5.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

    6 33

    7 35

    A 38

    A.1 Resembler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

    A.2 SDA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

    A.3 Resembler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

    A.4 SDA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

  • 1 2017 2018-2019

    2018 10 ( CSL)

    (AI)

    1.1 2017

    CSL 2017 GPIF

    AI GPIF (

    )

    ( AI) 1

    (Style Detector Array SDA) SDA

    GPIF

    100

    GPIF

    [1] 2018 GPIF CSL

    EQDerivatives “The Volatility

    & Risk Premia Awards 2019: Academic Research Paper Of The Year - Machine Learning &

    Big Data”

    GPIF

    AsianInvestor “Institutional Excellence Awards 2018” 4

    SDA

    AI

    1

  • 1.2 2018-2019

    2017 (AI)

    2018 10 2020 3

    (

    ) GPIF 2018 10

    2017 2018 10 2020 3

    ( 100

    )

    (

    1,000 )

    “Resemblance”(

    )

    1: 2017

    30 [4]

    29

    GPIF

    ( )

    2017

    GPIF

    SDA

    2018 10 2019 10

    2020

    2

  • 2 :

    2: SDA Resembler

    ( )

    [5, 6]

    Style Detector Array

    Resembler

    2.1

    Style Detector Array SDA Resembler

    2 *1

    *1 SDA (array)

    3

  • 2.1.1 Style Detector Array SDA

    SDA

    2017

    [1]

    SDA

    SDA

    Virtual Fund Manager VFM

    SDA

    3 ( 3)

    1. VFM

    2. SDA

    3. SDA

    SDA

    3: SDA

    4

  • Virtual Fund Manager VFM SDA

    VFM

    SDA VFM

    SDA VFM

    VFM

    SDA

    100 VFM

    SDA VFM SDA 1000

    1000

    SDA

    1000

    •SDA

    SDA GPIF

    ( 4) 1000

    GPIF

    98%( ) ( 5)

    VFM

    Fama-French 3 [7] Carhart 4

    [8]

    BP( ) CFP( ) DP(

    ) EP( ) MOM( 1 ) Rev-MOM( 1

    5

  • 4:

    5:

    6

  • ) SIZE( ) 7 VFM

    P

    SDA

    • VFM VFMVFM

    (all buy

    all sell) VFM

    VFM VFM

    6: VFM VFM

    •VFM

    VFM

    SDA

    7

  • 3

    Appendix

    VFM

    2.1.2 Resembler

    SDA Resembler

    SDA

    1

    2017

    Resembler Resembler SDA

    VFM

    Resembler A

    B (resemblance)

    SDA SDA

    ( 2)

    SDA Resembler

    VFM

    A

    2: SDA Resembler

    Resembler

    Resembler

    8

  • • Self-resemblance ( )

    ( )

    Self-resemblance

    Resembler

    Self-resemblance

    Self-resemblance Self-resemblance

    *2

    SDA Resembler

    SDA Resembler

    SDA

    Resembler

    SDA Resembler

    3

    Self-resemblance Appendix

    • Mutual-resemblance

    Resembler

    Mutual-resemblance

    4

    *2

    9

  • 2.1.3 ABCI SDA Resembler

    SDA Resembler

    [9, 10, 11]

    SDA Resembler

    2017

    AI (AI

    Bridging Cloud Infrastructure ABCI) [2] ABCI

    GPU 1088

    [3]

    1 1

    1 2017

    ABCI

    2.2

    SDA Resembler

    GPIF

    SDA Resembler

    SDA Resembler

    10

  • (Self Organizing Map SOM)

    SOM

    ( )

    SOM

    1.

    2.

    3.

    ( )

    4. 1

    *3

    PER PBR

    SOM

    7 SOM

    PER PBR

    SOM

    Resembler

    3

    *3 ( )

    11

  • SOM

    Distiller

    4

    7: SOM

    12

  • 3 GPIF

    GPIF

    GPIF ( )

    Resembler SDA

    Resembler SDA Appendix

    4

    3.1

    1

    1 A

    GPIF Resembler

    8a Resembler 3

    • 2017 7 2018 1• 2018 1 2019 3• 2019 3

    SDA

    ( 8b)

    ( ) Resembler

    Resembler

    • 9 SOM

    – 2017 1 ( 9a) 2019 1 ( 9b)

    13

  • (a) Resembler (b) SDA

    8: 1:

    – 2019 6 ( 9c)

    A

    A

    – Resembler Resembler

    •2017 7 2018 1 2018 1 2019 3 2019 3 Resembler

    Resembler ( 10)

    •Resembler

    Resembler 1

    ( 11)

    GPIF

    A GPIF 2016

    Resembler 2017 7 2018 1 Resembler

    14

  • (a) 2017 1 (b) 2019 1 (c) 2019 6

    9: 1: ( )

    10: 1:

    11: 1:

    15

  • 2019 3

    GPIF

    GPIF

    Resembler

    Resembler

    Resembler

    2

    F Resembler

    Resembler

    2019 6-7 Resembler

    ( 12a) SDA ( 12b)

    ( ) Resembler

    Resembler

    •– 2018 6 ( 9a) 2018 12 ( 9b)

    16

  • (a) Resembler (b) SDA

    12: 2:

    ( )

    – 2019 6 ( 9c)

    ( ) ( )

    Resembler Resem-

    bler

    (a) 2018 6 (b) 2018 12 (c) 2019 6

    13: 2: ( )

    17

  • GPIF

    Resembler F

    Resembler

    GPIF

    Resembler

    GPIF AI

    GPIF

    2

    •GPIF

    2

    F

    Resembler SDA

    Resembler

    GPIF

    • GPIFResembler

    GPIF

    GPIF

    1

    18

  • Resembler 1

    AI

    AI

    SOM

    3.2

    2

    3

    3 N

    GPIF

    2018

    GPIF

    GPIF

    Resembler

    ( 14)

    14: 3: (Resembler )

    19

  • •2018

    ( 15)

    15: 3:

    •2018

    ( 16)

    16: 3:

    ( 17)

    20

  • 17: 3

    GPIF GPIF

    Resembler

    4

    4 W

    Resembler

    ( 18)

    18: 4:Resembler

    21

  • 3.3

    AI 3

    1. AI(Resembler SDA)

    AI(Resembler SDA)

    ( )

    2. AI

    SOM

    AI

    Variable Auto Encoder

    3. 2

    GPIF Resembler

    AI

    AI

    22

  • 4

    4.1 Resembler

    ( ) Resembler

    2.1.2

    Resembler Mutual-resemblance

    (Multi-Dimensional Scaling MDS)[12]

    19:

    23

  • 4

    2015

    7 2019 9 19 (

    ) ( )

    A E

    20

    1

    *4 2019

    2019

    ( )

    GPIF

    GPIF

    ( )

    GPIF

    Resembler

    ( )

    ( ) GPIF

    AI

    GPIF

    *4

    24

  • 20:

    4.2

    GPIF 2 2014 2016

    3 GPIF

    [13]

    ( )

    ( )

    21a SOM

    25

  • 2.2 TOPIX

    21b

    21a

    2

    21a

    21b

    21a 21b

    (a) (b)

    21: SOM

    (

    22)

    • :

    GPIF

    2

    • :

    26

  • 22:

    ••

    • 90%

    ( )

    23

    ( ) ( )

    24

    27

  • 23:

    24:

    28

  • /

    •SOM

    Resembler SDA

    ( )

    GPIF

    29

  • 5 AI GPIF

    AI GPIF

    GPIF

    2

    5.1 GPIF

    GPIF

    GPIF

    GPIF AI

    GPIF

    •AI

    GPIF

    •Resembler

    •Resembler

    Resemblance

    •Resembler

    30

  • AI GPIF

    2017 GPIF

    AI 2018 10

    29

    GPIF

    AI GPIF

    •–

    – ( )

    – Call

    • GPIF /– GPIF AI

    – AI

    5.2

    GPIF

    GPIF

    31

  • GPIF GPIF

    GPIF

    AI

    “Moneyball”

    GPIF

    AI

    AI

    (metrics)

    “GPIF-metrics”

    32

  • 6

    2018 10

    3

    2019 10 Resembler

    SDA GPIF

    Resembler

    SDA

    • AI AI Resembler SDA1 SOM

    SOM

    • AIGPIF

    A

    B

    AI

    • Resembler GPIF

    33

  • • SDA Resembler

    SDA *5

    • SDA ResemblerSDA

    SDA

    VFM

    Resembler

    SDA

    • Resembler1

    Resembler

    Resembler

    2017

    AI

    GPIF

    AI

    *5 Resembler ( )

    34

  • 7

    3 AI

    ABCI

    GPIF ABCI AI

    CSL 3

    AI

    GPIF GPIF

    4.1 Resembler

    2020 74 2025 87.6

    [14]

    Resembler

    1

    [15]

    GPIF

    CSL 3 AI

    35

  • AI

    Resembler

    AI AI

    AI GPIF

    AI

    GPIF

    AI

    AI AI

    AI GPIF

    AI

    2017

    Best of Best

    GPIF

    36

  • 37

  • A

    A.1 Resembler

    25: Resembler — (1/3)

    38

  • 25: Resembler — (2/3)

    39

  • 25: Resembler — (3/3)

    40

  • A.2 SDA

    26: SDA — (1/3)

    41

  • 26: SDA — (2/3)

    42

  • 26: SDA — (3/3)

    43

  • A.3 Resembler

    27: Resembler — (1/2)

    44

  • 27: Resembler — (2/2)

    45

  • A.4 SDA

    28: SDA — (1/2)

    46

  • 28: SDA — (2/2)

    47

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