Post on 23-Mar-2021
Ewa Kulińska-Sadłocha*
ORCID: 0000-0002-8183-6111 Ewa.Kulińska68@gmail.com
Monika Marcinkowska**
ORCID: 0000-0002-3494-9834 monika.marcinkowska@uni.lodz.pl
Jan Szambelańczyk***
ORCID: 0000-0002-4340-5193 Jan.Szambelanczyk@ue.poznan.pl
Abstract
Key words:
JEL:
Wp yw ryzyka pandemii na dzia alno banków na przyk adzie polskiego sektora bankowego w trakcie COVID-19
Streszczenie
S owa kluczowe:
Introduction
1. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic systems
Czarna mier epidemie w Europie od staro ytno ci do czasów wspó czesnych
The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios
A Look at COVID 19 in terms of 10. Economics
Global Macroe-conomic Consequences of Pandemic In luenza
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective
The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
Population Health and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development
Health and Economic Growth, Findings and Policy ImplicationsMacroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development
World Bank Group. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa.
The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Combat The Economic Impact Of COVID-19
ex ante
Analizy epidemiologiczne w rodowisku matlab/octave
Tab
le 1
. Per
iod
isat
ion
an
d s
yste
mat
isat
ion
of p
reve
nti
on, a
nti
-pan
dem
ic a
nd
pos
t-p
and
emic
act
ion
s or
inte
rven
tion
s in
th
e p
roce
ss o
f sta
bil
izin
g th
e so
cio-
econ
omic
sys
tem
SPEC
IFIC
ATIO
NO
UT
BR
EAK
CO
UN
TR
Y
CRO
SS
BO
RD
ER
EXPA
N-
SIO
N
EPID
EMIC
/PA
ND
EMIC
PO
ST-P
AN
DEM
IC R
ECO
VER
Y
n0
n0+
e 0n
0+
e 0+
Kn
0 +
e0
+K
+L
n0 +
e0
+K
+L+
P
SPEC
IFIC
ATIO
NO
UT
BR
EAK
CO
UN
TR
Y
CRO
SS
BO
RD
ER
EXPA
N-
SIO
N
EPID
EMIC
/PA
ND
EMIC
PO
ST-P
AN
DEM
IC R
ECO
VER
Y
Tab
le 1
– c
onti
nu
ed
Figure 1. Simulated transmission model of COVID-19
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Case
s be
ing
repo
rted
Months since transmission established
Epidemic growth,doubling time 4–7 days
Timing and width of peak uncertain due to:• Stochasticity in early dynamics• Heterogeneities in contact patterns• Spatial variation• Uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters
Social distancing flattens curve
Risk of resurgence following lifting of interventions
How will country-ba-sed mitigation measures in luence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scen-arios
SIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for Colombia Estim-ation of the inal size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model
A Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Persons
Mothballing the economy and the effects on banks Pandemic Crisis and Financial Stability
2. Channels of in luence of COVID-19 on the banking sector
Do Globalization, Deregulation and Financialization Imply a Convergence of Contemporary Capitalisms? Financializa-tion of Econom Pa stwo a inansjalizacja
. Prac i opiek nad dzieckiem czy po owa mam.
Table 2. The short-term impact of the COVID-1 9 pandemic on banking activities
Limited employee availability
Additional expenditure
on banking activityCost savings in banking activity
3. The general situation of the Polish banking sector and instruments for cushioning the effects of the pandemic
Figure 2. Structure of the banking sector in Poland by asset value [as at 29 February 2020]
By origin of the capital By bank structurePolish private capital13.3%
State Treasury40.4%
Branches of foreign credit institutions3.5%
Commercial banks89.2%
Foreign capital46.3%
Cooperative banks7.3%
Polacy wystraszyli si plotek o niewyp acalno ci banków
Tab
le 3
. Qu
anti
tati
ve c
har
acte
rist
ics
of t
he
ban
kin
g se
ctor
in P
olan
d
Spec
iic
atio
n
Dat
a as
at
31
/12
/20
19
29
/02
/ 2
02
0G
row
th r
ate
31
/03
/20
20
Gro
wth
rat
e
12
3=
2:1
45
=4
:2
Fina
ncia
l da
ta o
f th
e ba
nkin
g se
ctor
46
Safe Bank 2 (79) 2020 Problems and OpinionsFigure 3. Currency in circulation: daily cumulative changes (upper panel) and daily changes since the beginning of March 2020 (lower panel)
-5 0000
5 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 00055 00060 000
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
2020 2019 20182017 2008
PLN
noillim
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
02-0
3-20
2005
-03-
2020
08-0
3-20
2011
-03-
2020
14-0
3-20
2017
-03-
2020
20-0
3-20
2023
-03-
2020
26-0
3-20
2029
-03-
2020
01-0
4-20
2004
-04-
2020
07-0
4-20
2010
-04-
2020
13-0
4-20
2016
-04-
2020
19-0
4-20
2022
-04-
2020
25-0
4-20
2028
-04-
2020
01-0
5-20
2004
-05-
2020
07-0
5-20
2010
-05-
2020
13-0
5-20
20
PLN
milli
on
Daily changes
Average change 2019 (increase of values)Source: Financial Stability Report. Special Issue: impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. NBP June 2020,
Kiedy zako czy si pandemia koronawirusa SARS-CoV-2? Sprawdzamy, co mówi naukowcy,
EBA statement on actions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the EU banking sector,
Statement on the application of the prudential framework regarding Default, Forbearance and IFRS9 in light of COVID- 19 measures
Statement on actions to mitigate inancial crime risks in the COVID-19 pan-demic, Statement on dividends distribution, share buybacks and variable remuneration, Statement on supervisory reporting and Pillar 3 disclosures in light of COVID-19
Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments ap-plied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis,
Table 4. Description of supervisory solutions for the banking sector in Poland in response to COVID-19
Purposes Means of implementation
Group 1 : Provisions and classi ication of credit exposures
concerning the principles of credit risk management and recognition of expected credit losses
concerning good practices in the management of credit exposures backed by mortgages
Group 2: Capital buffers
Group 3: Liquidity standards
Purposes Means of implementation
Group 4: Ongoing supervision
Komunikat ws. „odmro enia” terminów w postepowaniach administracyjnych prowadzonych przez Ko-
Table 4 – continued
misj Nadzoru Finansowego
4. The impact of COVID-19 instruments on banks in Poland
Banki robi to, przed czym ostrzegano od dawna. „Musimy si zabezpieczy ”
BIK raportuje struktur zawieszenia (odroczenia) sp aty rat kredy-towych
Table 5. Changes in bank lending policies related to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
Loans to enterprises Loans to households
Senior loan of icer opinion survey on bank lending practices and credit conditions,
O kredyt b dzie trudniej. Czas beztroskiego konsumeryzmu w Polsce si sko czy ” – ostrzega prezes najwi kszego banku w Polsce
Final remarks
References
How will country-ba-sed mitigation measures in luence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Dise-ase Scenarios
The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)
Analizy epidemiologiczne w rodowisku matlab/octave
Estimation of the inal size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model
The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evi-dence
Population Health and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development
Do Globalization, Deregulation and Financialization Imply a Convergence of Contem-porary Capitalisms?
Financialization of Economy
SIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for Colom-bia
Czarna mier epidemie w Europie od staro ytno ci do czasów wspó cze-snych
A Look at COVID 19 in terms of 10. Economics
Health and Economic Growth, Findings and Policy Implications
Mothballing the economy and the effects on banks Pandemic Crisis and Fi-nancial Stability
The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios
Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic In luenza
Pa stwo a inansjalizacja
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective
Senior loan of icer opinion survey on bank lending practices and credit conditions
A Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Persons
World Bank Group. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Mediu-m-Term Estimates for West Africa.
Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development
Press and special articles
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Combat The Economic Impact Of COVID-19
O kredyt b dzie trudniej. „Czas beztroskiego konsumeryzmu w Polsce si sko czy ” – ostrzega prezes najwi kszego banku w Polsce
Banki robi to, przed czym ostrzegano od dawna. „Musimy si zabezpieczy ”
Kiedy zako czy si pandemia koronawirusa SARS-CoV-2? Sprawdzamy, co mó-wi naukowcy
Legal documents
Internet sources
BIK raportuje struktur zawieszenia (odroczenia) sp aty rat kredytowych
Financial data of the banking sector
Monthly data for the banking sector as at 29 February 2020
EBA statement on actions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the EU banking sector
Financial Stability Report. Special issue: impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments applied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis
Komunikat ws. „odmro enia” terminó w w post powaniach administracyjnych prowadzonych przez Komisj Nadzoru Finansowego
Prac i opiek nad dzieckiem czy po owa mam
Statement on actions to mitigate inancial crime risks in the COVID-19 pandemic, Statement on dividends distribution, share buybacks and variable remuneration, Statement on supervisory reporting and Pillar 3 disclosures in light of COVID-19
Statement on the application of the prudential framework regarding Default, Forbearance and IFRS9 in light of COVID- 19 measures
Supervisory Stimulus Package for Security and Development to support the banking sector